Long term readers will know that I’ve been negative on Britain for a long time. Corbyn was their last chance to turn things around, but Corbyn lacked the necessary ruthlessness to win, and was destroyed by absolutely bullshit allegations of anti-semitism. Starmer became Labour leader after him, on promises of left wing policies which even a child should have disbelieved, and ruthlessly purged Labour of all left wingers.
Conservatives ran stupid governments with horrid policies which led to inflation and continued de-industrialization, and Starmer backed into power. His policies are worse than the Conservatives, with draconian cuts to social welfare policies like child support, heat for old people, and wheelchairs for cripples. The last British steel plant is shutting down, and the next party to rule Britain (as I also predicted) seems likely to be Reform:
It showed that if a General Election were held tomorrow, 25% of UK voters would choose Reform, 24% chose Labour and 21% would vote for the Tories.
The party topped a Find Out Now Westminster poll last week, with Farage’s party on 26% of the vote – outstripping the Tories (on 23%) and pushing Labour into third place (on 22%).
While this is even or only a slight lead, Labour’s policies, which include selling a big chunk of the UK to Blackrock, will continue to be extremely damaging and unpopular, so I expect Reform to continue its rise.
Reform’s policies, should it come into government, will be absolutely disastrous, Trump/DOGE style shoot yourself in the foot, then realized there’s still plenty left to blow away.
Meanwhile Wales. Wales, which has been under English rule for over 700 years now pols in the 30s for support for independence. Scottish support is in the high 40s, sometimes spiking over 50, with support for going concentrated among the youngest Scots. Northern Ireland is around 40% for joining Ireland.
Again, as things become worse, I expect these numbers to increase. In twenty years, I don’t expect there to be a United Kingdom (the union of Scotland and England.)
There’s no easy recovery from what has happened to the UK as there’s no prospect of a government which will seriously try to re-industrialize. As China continues its rise, and as the US dollar loses its hegemonic status, the City of London financial center will continue to weaken and, well, the UK will have less and less the world wants, which is bad since the UK can’t even feed itself, and has limited natural resources, especially if Scotland leaves.
It’s over. The English had a good run from 1500 to 2000 or so, but all nations face periods of decline and poverty. Britain’s will soon be upon them, and given how authoritarian England is becoming, it won’t even have a lot of freedom to offer. If you’re British, and can, get out. Now.
Jefferson Hamilton
“Get out now.”
And go where, though? Canada? Where in the anglosphere (or even Europe) is not having massive problems? I’m sure even NZ is cracking even though it doesn’t get much of the headlines. China doesn’t want you.
Mark Level
Woah, Ian, Woah!! You neglect to mention one of Starmer’s “greatest” achievements, which will save not just Imperial Britannia (Long May She Rule) but another great Spartan War state, that of Ukraine, dedicated to the conquest of Eurasia on behalf of “the white race”, Aryans, and the Noble Lost Cause–a 4th Reich with Germany is the goal, as in the early 40s, the Russians aren’t the only dirty Slavs who will be defeated under the boot of the Master Race, Poland, Romania etc. will also be on the chopping block!!
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/17/what-has-the-uk-promised-ukraine-in-starmers-100-year-deal
Starting with a “100 year deal”, only a Century of unified fascism is thoughtful and realistic, no need to over-promise as the 1,000 Year Reich promised only lasted 12 years (1933-45.) Well, except for the Rump Nazis in Canada, Argentina, Chile, Ohio and Illinois, but these people never managed full rule.
So Starmer’s gutting of national health, safety, infrastructure is all justified by following the policy of the Tories (as Starmer brags to the Labour constituency) and propping up Europe’s “Sick Man” for another century of war with the evil Reds.
I love this paragraph– “Starmer also pledged 3 billion pounds ($3.6bn) a year in military aid “for as long as it takes” and announced 40 million pounds ($48.7m) for an economic recovery programme to provide additional support on grain verification and trade, but it is unclear when the economic aid will be paid to Ukraine.”
Where’s the money coming from? And where will it go? My prediction: to more nice mansions for Zelensky & his family members in countrys not yet covered. He has Florida property, City of London, Israel (for his mom), Tuscany, and elsewhere, gotta get this brave hero up to at least a dozen properties to reward his courage against renascent Communism and the “yellow hordes” of the East (which is Red, never forget!!) For those with long memories, Zelensky and the evil Putin at one time had something in common, they both appeared in The Panama Papers as people with assets hidden abroad to dodge taxes.
What about troops? The Brits have next to none. They have “more Admirals than ships”, as the joke goes.
Shifting away from sinking Britannia, Z. finally folded and signed “the Ukraine Minerals Deal” with the US. https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/after-trump-bullies-zelensky-during-white-house-meeting-us-ukraine-sign-minerals-deal-1733283 Trump promised they would repay the $200 billion we’d given them to terrorize Russian speakers & Muscovites since Nuland’s 2014 Maidan coup, I’m assuming, which won’t happen, it is now a $0 repayment (just like what the Mexicans paid to build Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Wall” in term 1), BUT–
Interesting coincidence, the signing yesterday was on the 50th anniversary of the US’s miserable defeat in Vietnam (as someone on NCap pointed out yesterday). So much for Trump’s promises to be a “Peace President.” The insane plan is that the US will take over and profit directly (a “business deal”) from Ukrainian infrastructure including gas pipelines ultimately served by the enemy, Russia, and also take back the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power plant which the Russians occupy, and have temporarily shut down as the Ukrainians constantly shell it. (I wonder if the shelling will stop if the Axis decides it should be preserved for them?)
Everything that hasn’t already been handed to Blackrock, et al will now be US-“owned”, Trump Gaza failed (for now) but Trump Ukraine is coming and it’ll be BIG, baby, BIG!! Another Taj Mahal, no doubt. The Ukrainians will continue losing territory and being thrown into a wood chipper, and IF (which won’t ever happen) they prevail in 20 or 30 years, “as long as it takes” will be a Serf/Servant class in their own ruins. Will the Donald or JD allow Starmer and the Brits a little slice of the pie? Methinks we all know the answer to that, they agree with Vicky Nuland on one thing, “Fuck the EU.”
Shifting to World geopolitics, this means the obvious– All of Biden’s Wars are now Trump’s Wars. An old dog cannot learn a new trick!! The US will get bogged down in Eurasia, attacking Iran is not worth the effort and the Zionist Entity will be run as a secondary concern, not quite primary, financially at least. The biggest winner is Ghina, no way can the Empire run 3 wars at once. Also, any actual boots on the ground in UK will be a mix of Euro-chihuahuas who are “morally” committed to impoverishing their deindustrialized economy to an Endless war with EastAsia, plus a few high paid US Mercenaries (Eric Prince needs to make a living) to direct the carnage.
The MAGA voters got as thoroughly betrayed as the Bernie voters who sucked it up for the Bidet . . . Obama famously joked “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up,” on many occasions. Well, whichever choice we make, we get the same shit sandwich, now the Orange, wet one instead of the dry, white one. Plus ca change . . .
Daniil Adamov
And if Scotland does leave, what do you make of its prospects as an independent nation?
Ian Welsh
Scotland’s chances depend on the competence of their leadership at the time, I don’t know enough to guess. They seem less insane than English leadership, anyway. They’ll rejoin the EU if it hasn’t collapsed.