The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Author: Ian Welsh Page 134 of 437

Fundraising Update: Last Tier Reached

I’m going to leave the fundraiser open until the first of January, but we’ve made all the tiers.

THANK YOU.

I am immensely grateful, especially given how hard things were this year.

The final tier, which I didn’t think we’d make, was:

An essay on the effects of computer and telecom technology on humanity. Back in the 1990s, in his book Technopoly, Neil Postman predicted it would be bad for most people. I would argue it has, or will be, but we’ll take a look at the ups and downs, the effects on economics, geopolitics, and daily life. As with the advent of writing, printing, and firearms, the early results may not be the same as those in the longer term, so we’ll try and figure out some of those.

I look forward to writing it. Postman had an interesting, analytical framework for technology use, and how it controls social options which could easily be expanded beyond technology, as well.

The problem we have today is that even when I see things that could be good (if used well), I know that our society will abuse them. For example, there’s now an experimental vaccine which blocks some opiates. Could be useful to help addicts, but of course it will be forced on some people who don’t want it, especially in prisons, and by police and some mental hospitals and doctors. This will both leave people who need pain relief in agony and put some addicts into horrible withdrawals without their consent.

That’s just who we are, it seems: We can’t be trusted with any sort of power, technological or otherwise, because we will horribly abuse it.

Is that a permanent feature of humanity, or something we can overcome?

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Why Ukraine in NATO Is a Red Line for Russia

The border of the Ukraine is 523 miles from Moscow.

Imagine if Canada allied with Russia, and Russian troops and missiles were on the Canadian border. Four hundred and fifty-six miles to DC. Close to other major cities and military bases.

Be hard to defend, wouldn’t it?

The Cuban missile crisis happened because the Soviets decided to put missiles in Cuba.

Why?

Because the US had put missiles in Turkey.

The agreement that ended the stand-off removed those missiles from Turkey, though that was secret at the time.

The Russians have noted that, if NATO moves further towards their border, they will put missiles just as close to the US. The new Russian hypersonic missiles are small. They can be put on small boats, as well as submarines, and kept offshore from the US, ready to go on command.

“If you can hit our capital and major cities in minutes, we will make sure we can hit yours too.”

(We’re coming towards the end of my fundraising. I write to explain the world and to help introduce the ideas that may change it for the better in the future. The more people who donate, the more I can do. Please DONATE OR SUBSCRIBE if you can.)

What Russia wants is a guarantee of no troops and missiles from the US in that close a proximity to them. (They say “US” because they consider NATO nothing more than a US cat’s paw, and NATO members are subject states to the US, which is accurate in most, but not all, cases.)

The US has had Cuba under embargo for over half a century now. They’ve tried to invade and they often interferes with Cuba’s internal affairs. The US has overthrown the governments of Latin American nations multiple times, when it didn’t like them.

Russia, which was told at the end of the Cold War that NATO would not expand past Eastern Germany, wants nations near it to, at least, not hold troops and missiles from its greatest enemy (which is clearly what the US still is, which is stupid, but there you have it).

Doesn’t seem unreasonable to me, but Americans seem to think that behaviour that is okay when they do it is unacceptable from others.

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Merry Christmas—

and all that rot, as my Dad used to say.

May it be a happy day and season for you.

Taking Omicron Seriously

Omicron is insanely contagious. Where I live, cases are doubling every three days. There are places where the doubling rate is two days.

It appears optimized for blowing through vaccines and natural immunity, which is to be expected. We partially immunized the world, but didn’t wipe out Covid, and it mutated to adapt. Because, in many places, a majority had vaccination and natural immunity, the virus adapted to this.

I quoted this May 2021:

The first big breakout variant, the UK strain, was specifically adapted against masks. It was much more contagious, so minor mask lapses were more easily exploited. It spread more evenly, relying less on super-spreader events, and was more infectious to children, who mask poorly.

The next big breakout was the South African strain, which was part of the family of Covid strains that contain a mutation colorfully labeled “Eek,” which evades antibodies, especially from natural infection or weaker vaccines, because that was/is becoming a bigger impediment than masks.

Now that MRNA vaccines are becoming the tool of choice, if the virus is allowed to continue to circulate in a partially-vaccinated Western population, it is only a matter of time before that becomes the biggest impediment to Covid’s success, and viruses are selected for resistance to it.

(Cue swelling music). LIFE, LIFE finds a WAY!

So, that prediction (not mine, but adopted by me because it made sense), came true.

Now, it’s still unclear how virulent Omicron cases are, because there are a lot of confounding factors. While vaccines don’t protect nearly as much against it, they do make you a lot less likely to die or wind up hospitalized. My sense is that it’s probably about as virulent as the original strain, but not as virulent as Delta.

Omicron appears to be excellent at re-infecting. Odds are you can get it multiple times.

(We’re coming towards the end of my fundraising. I write to explain the world and to help introduce the ideas that may change it for the better in the future. The more people who donate, the more I can do. Please DONATE OR SUBSCRIBE if you can.)

We also don’t know, yet, how much Long Covid it produces. Bear in mind that, in about half of those people with symptomatic cases of original or Delta, there’s lung scarring even if they don’t have “Long Covid” symptoms. Brain damage is pretty common too, and Covid often damages kidneys. People who are young and fit have gotten this; I have an acquaintance whose brain damage was so bad he got aphasia — he now sounds like a stroke victim and is in speech therapy.

So I’d take this seriously, especially since we don’t know Long Covid works. It may be that your chances of getting it increase each time you have Covid, or just that you have a chance each Covid infection. While Omicron does defeat vaccines better than previous strains, mRNA vaccines (ideally three doses) do provide protection; ventilation will work, etc.

Omicron should never have happened. There should have been a coordinated global effort to eradicate the virus, using basic epidemiological principles that have worked where applied, like in China and New Zealand, combined with travel bans, quarantines, and worldwide vaccine rollout.

Sadly for you and me, but not for our lords and masters, Covid was hugely profitable to the richest people, so it was allowed to spread. Billionaires have seen their wealth double and you just can’t pass up that sort of profit event, certainly not for something as trivial as millions of people dying and possibly being crippled for life. “Hard decisions,” y’know?

(One silver lining of all this is that Omicron is so contagious it seems to be busting through elite cordons. Bill Gates is in isolation now, and if he gets it and dies, it will be exactly what he deserves.)

The deaths and suffering are about a lot more than Covid, as well. To use the simplest example, a lot of surgeries and procedures have been delayed during the plague, and people are suffering and dying because of that. Where I live, I’ve seen response to cancer discovery go from about two months from initial finding to surgery/treatment to well over four months (not sure how much over four months yet, finding out the hard way). That will turn some people’s treatable cancer into a death sentence. The same is true of heart issues, and so on.

This is what our elites do. They make themselves richer and more powerful, and they do so by hurting and killing other people. Whatever you think of the CCP, and there’s a great deal I do’t like, after initial denial and foolishness, they treated Covid seriously and not primarily as a profit event. Since a few Western states did likewise, we know this isn’t a case of “only totalitarian governments can,” but it’s still an indictment that a single party authoritarian state has handled the plague better than almost every “democratic” nation.

Grim news for the Christmas season, and totally unnecessary, but like with climate change and ecological collapse, it’s where we are. Because we let our elites kill us, but never even consider returning the favor.

Be as well as  you can be, and I hope you remain untouched by all this.

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On Respirators, Masks, and Getting Through the Pandemic

With permission, I’ve elevated this comment, as I think it may be helpful to those trying to get through Covid.


Here’s how you get through this pandemic:

I buy N95 from Uline in bulk 300 respirators (15 cartons) at a time. It works out to less than a $1 per day for a fresh respirator everyday per person. The link is right here: https://www.uline.com/Product/Detail/S-9632/Disposable-Masks/Uline-N95-Standard-Industrial-Respirator . Where I live, Uline delivers in 1-2 days direct from their warehouse.

These Uline respirators are a ‘manly’ man’s respirators. They are itchy and rough but are a very tight fit on my face and I can endure. Working without taking time for sickness is important to me (+ I perform mentally very challenging tasks and can not lose any IQ points to COVID even if I otherwise have no severe symptoms). If you are not into that, these Korean DOBU respirators are the softest thing you will ever find:
https://www.amazon.com/DOBU-NIOSH-Foldable-Medium-Respirator/dp/B08ZYDH36H/ref=pd_lpo_1?pd_rd_i=B08ZYDH36H&psc=1

They are as soft as a plush toy but a bit too small for me. Women and children love these respirators.

We have tested close to a dozen of brands of respirators (blowing between 2-3K to purchase samples), and most were wanting in one aspect or another. LG health Patriot Mask (https://www.alg-health.com/industrial-non-surgical/) just has this nasty plastic smell that I can’t stand but otherwise is rather soft and well-fitting. Some are willing to overlook the smell (or air the respirator for a couple of days before using it).

I have a shelf on the inside side of my home door where I keep boxes of respirators. Before I step out I put one on, always. On the outside side of my home door, I have a trash bag, when I come back, I put the respirator I have on in the trash bag. Always and everyday, by now it is an instinct, a reflex, like putting pants on. I also have special glasses but I wear those only in transit. I do not take the respirator off outside of my home — never. So, no eating in restaurants, no lunch. I also discourage and shut down any parties at work and minimally participate in parties or events thrown by the superiors (which luckily the superiors seem to be on the same page) . When I get home, I wash hands and face, spray hair with 70% alcohol and change into home clothing. Too much you say? To me, it is better than being sick, even mildly. I hate being sick, I am never sick, I don’t remember when I was sick last time. Plus, as I point out above, what my colleagues and I do is intellectually taxing — any IQ point counts.


Ian – please use the comments to discuss getting through the pandemic.

Matching Funds Reached, Thank You

We’re all through with the matching funds. My thanks to all who gave. Further donations, while appreciated, will not be matched.

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$600 Matching Donations + Fundraiser Update

A generous reader has offered to match donations up to a total of $600. So, if you value my writing and can…

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When the matching funds are used up, I’ll put up a quick post.

We’re at $9,535.18 raised. The next tier is at $10K, and is:

A longish look at the theory of revolutions: How, when and why do they happen? I’ll be drawing on people like Randall Collins and Michael Mann. Most of what they have is based on the experience of Agrarian empires, so I’ll try and extend it a bit to industrial nations, and also look at what it means for a world system to collapse. World systems prior to capitalism didn’t include the entire world (and capitalism didn’t till the mid-19th century), so we can see what comes thinking about it.

If we hit 11.5K, the last tier is:

An essay on the effect of computer and telecom technology on humanity. Back in the 1990s, in his book Technopoly, Neil Postman predicted it would be bad for most people. I would argue it has, or will be, but we’ll take a look at the ups and downs, the effects on economics, geopolitics, and daily life. As with the advents of writing, printing, and firearms, the early results may not be the same as those in the longer term, so we’ll try and figure out some of those.

I’ll shut the fundraiser down next week (I’ll write one last update before I do.) I deeply appreciate everyone who’s given this year; it’s been a tough year.

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Today’s Center Is Yesterday’s Extreme

And tomorrow’s center will be today’s extreme.

(We’re coming towards the end of my fundraising. I write to explain the world and to help introduce the ideas that may change it for the better in the future. The more people who donate, the more I can do. Please DONATE OR SUBSCRIBE if you can.)

In the 1950s US, the top marginal tax rate was 91 percent. In 1925, the idea of such a rate was an extreme position. Today, it is an extreme position.

In 1935, the US had a small standing army and believed that was the way to be. After WWI, it had demobilized a huge army, but after WWII it chose to keep a large standing army.

Segregation was the normal position for much of the country before the 1960s; today it is theoretically illegal.

Women could not, effectively, hold most jobs in the 1950s; today they can. Married women couldn’t even have their own bank accounts without permission from their husbands; today they can.

Before the 1940s, almost no countries had universal health care, now virtually all developed countries (except the US) do.

Limited liability corporations didn’t exist throughout most of the history of capitalism, and were opposed by many capitalists when introduced; now they are the norm.

Most land was owned and managed by the commons for most of history; now, most of it is private land or government-owned. The idea that every local shouldn’t have access to local land and resources was EXTREME for almost all of human existence.

(Capitalism, generally speaking, is an extremely radical ideology when viewed through the lens of human history and pre-history.)

The center, of any period, is the extreme of a previous period. Truly, new ideas start from the extremes, then, when radicals win, they become centrist ideas. Adam Smith did not agree with the orthodoxy of his day, any more than Karl Marx did (though he had the advantage that he was championing a wealthy minority, not a poor one ,and thus didn’t live his life in poverty and misery like Marx.)

Confucius was an extremist who could not get hired by those in power. Jesus was an extremist. Muhammed was an extremist. Thomas Paine was an extremist. Luther was an extremist, and so was MLK.

The center does maintainance and refinement of ideas, but they have few if any truly new ideas. It is radicals who create new ideas, and centrists support them only afterwards.

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