So, this weekend there was a leak of a possible peace deal. Iran got most of what it wanted in this hypothetical deal. Israel said “we won’t obey any truce in Lebanon” and, well, that’s probably the end of it, though we’ll see.
I considered writing about it over the weekend, but so far every peace deal floated over a weekend has meant a manipulation of markets, some insider making bank by exactly timing it, and no peace deal.
The bottom line here is that if Iran is serious about a peace deal including Lebanon and Hezbollah, it can only happen if Trump is willing and able to discipline Israel. Doing so is in one sense easy: just stop sending them weapons and parts. They can’t go more than two weeks without US re-supply. (This is why Netanyahu has been saying Israel wants to be independent of the US.)
For whatever reason Trump won’t do this. It could be political fear due to the power of the lobby. It could be they have pictures of him raping kids. It could be, as a correspondent just argued, that in fact Trump is impotent and they can prove that and his ego can’t take it.
Whatever the reason is, it obviously exists.
Iran would like a deal, but it’s in no particular rush because the pain ramps up every week the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, and despite what various idiots say, the US is not immune to that pain.
Iran won the war. They want a peace deal that reflects that. They aren’t willing to give in peace what the US can’t win by arms.
As for the US, I think we’re looking at an opposition between American politicians fear of Israel and its lobby and their terror of what will happen in the mid-term elections. The Joker in the deck is the how many of them are subject to blackmail, because pictures of them raping teenagers trumps losing election.
Deleted AIPAC tweet
But be clear that the pain has only begun. It’s going to be even worse overseas. If Europe and large parts of Asia, including Australia, don’t start rationing soon, they’re not going to have enough energy to get thru next winter. That’s the sort of incompetence that leads to governments falling.
If the US was run by sane competent non-blackmailed people who cared about America, and not just their own class, Trump would be impeached, Israel would be reined in, and a peace deal would be cut. The US has lost, and the fallout from signing a peace deal which admits this is less than letting the Strait remain closed.
If this or another similar deal does pass soon, then it will be because Iran has cut Hezbollah loose and left them on their own, whatever they say. But trying to help Hezbollah isn’t just about doing the “right thing”, Hezbollah is an important proxy for Iran and they want to keep it around and not have to support it in a multi-year war against Israel.
And, again, their negotiating hand gets stronger every day. Sure, they’re suffering from the US blockade, but not as much as the US (and almost everyone else) is from theirs.
The only country which could compel Iran to make peace is China, and since they are run by competent people who think ahead, they’re one of the few nations that can handle the Strait being closed. Not, perhaps, forever, but certainly much longer than the US can.
Meanwhile America keeping the Strait closed (which is how it is perceived by many) is doing vast damage to America’s subject states. That too will have consequences: they may publicly blame Iran, but behind the scenes they know this was a US war of choice, that the US lost, and that the US doesn’t care what is happening to them as a consequence of not cutting a peace deal.
Losing wars has consequences. Failing to admit you lost a war has even worse consequences. The US has yet to figure this out.
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