Sanctions come with a cost. When the US, in Trump’s first term, put chip sanctions on China and particularly sanctioned Huawei (the leader in 5g networks), it galvanized China. They pivoted hard to supporting internal chip companies, and over time moved their government computers off US software. Huawei survived, prospered and created its own operating system. In the past couple years China has actually forbid import of US chips, though some still come in thru the gray market.
This isn’t an isolated issue. One of the reasons, ironically, that Iran is so strong in many ways is because of sanctions: they were forced to create their own industrial base, not just in weapons, but in things like railroads, engines, boilers, etc, etc… When Iranian infrastructure was destroyed by the US earlier this year much of it was very quickly repaired: to the extent they have dependencies, they are on China and to a lesser extent Russia.
The US can’t stop itself: as their military and industrial might has declined they have relied more and more on sanctions. Not only has this lead to other countries (particularly Russia and China) creating their own payment systems and offering those payment systems to their trading partners, but it has vastly decreased the market for US tech.
In order to protect Israel and Netanyahu from sanctions, it hit one of its allies:
The Netherlands is following China, France, and Russia in moving to break the global stranglehold of US tech dominance, it was revealed this week.
The Dutch government was shocked into action after the US remotely disabled the computers of judges in the Hague who criticized Israel leader Benjamin Netanyahu. The sudden loss of ICC staff’s Outlook email accounts caused significant problems.
The US reserves the right to unilaterally sanction anyone, anywhere in the world–all your Google accounts could disappear in an instant. Bye-bye, gmail. “The Dutch government is creating its own digital work environment based on the Dutch Linux distribution NixOS,” said Jasper Bakker of news website Tweakers.
Once lost these markets won’t come back. Countries which create their own tech, will use it. Getting civilians to transfer over is harder, most non-government, non corporate computers in China still run Windows, but Huawei created HarmonyOS, and it’s getting traction. I would expect that in a few years China will cease the sale of Windows in China, and new computers will have to come with non US operating systems.
Every source of American power, for about 35 years, has been subject to systematic dismantling. Industry was offshored, they stopped refining and mining many key resources, sanctions were abused, dollar privilege was abused, and so on. Generally the external actions didn’t hit allies/vassals–until recently, but Trump has been on a tear: forcing the Netherlands to stop selling China chip making machines, for example, which the CEO of ASML predicted would lead to China developing its own advanced chip making machines. (They’re still behind, but they’ve progressed far faster than most people predicted.)
The thing about crippling sanctions is that they don’t work on real countries in the medium term. China and Russia are real countries, with their own industrial bases, plenty of scientists and engineers and access to resources the US can’t sanction. Cutting them off just speeds up internal development or shifts to other suppliers. If you’re going to exploit a critical vulnerability, you should do so only against those who can’t substitute or as prelude to a war: and that war needs to be soon, before they adapt.
Anyway, this continued nonsense is pushing even vassals to reduce their vulnerability, and while Europe is still prostrate, these sorts of actions build the basis for a break from US hegemony–and cost American companies billions. Likewise, as people move off US tech, as it loses its ubiquity, a lot of power is lost: people use many techs because “everyone uses them”. Network effects are huge, but each of these hits reduces those network effects.
It’s extraordinarily foolish (and Nvidia’s CEO pointed this out) but it’s US policy. America thinks its indispensable, and once it was, but it’s doing everything possible to make it so that other countries will do whatever is necessary to make it dispensable.
Truly, American elites, while vicious and cunning are some of the worst long term strategists I’ve ever seen.
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EGrise
“Truly, American elites, while vicious and cunning are some of the worst long term strategists I’ve ever seen.”
Yeah. I’m some nobody in the US and even *I* can see that this is headed for a cliff. I often wonder about how they turned out this way. Is it:
– Obsessive business focus on the next financial quarter to the detriment of all else, since so many of them are trained in “business” and finance
– Overbearing need for immediate gratification, so money/results/submission/regime change must happen NOW, not at some later time when it might be more advantageous
– Lifetimes of failing upward with no consequences whatsoever
– Genuine belief that the US will always be on top and nothing can change that
– Sheer inbred stupidity
More than these for sure. Pretty clear that the elites are no longer our best and brightest, if they ever were.
But savage? Oh yes, non-elite Americans are gonna learn that good and hard.
David on an Island
Ian, when you say that “…Europe is still prostate,” is that because the prostate is easier to reach while they are prostrate? Asking for a friend…
America’s idiotic obsession with the imposition of coercive and punitive sanctions seems more like projection than a reasoned strategy. If China and the international community reliant on Chinese know-how and components were ever to impose sanctions, the U.S. economy could be rendered prostrate in a matter of months.
david lamy
In the coming decades will there be US children fortunate enough to have the opportunity to study at a university in Iran, China, or Russia?
Because the US government has self-sanctioned the manufacturing base and supporting research and education from flourishing here.
StewartM
1) Well, how can you have “long term strategy” when your idol is “death bet” Ayn Rand, who preached that any strategy that includes the well-being of others, including posterity, is “immoral”? And how can one properly assess the contributions of others when all progress is created by a few John Galts with nothing at all contributed by the unthinking worker “herd”?
(Anyone who knows anything about technology or military history knows that “great” generals and great inventors are really a dime a dozen, what makes the difference is whether or not the infrastructure of their societies that makes them successful. One can be a brilliant military leader but if one’s troops are poorly equipped and supplied and have low morale, your schemes will come to no good. Likewise, with inventors; you can have all sorts of great ideas but if the materials and the workmanship isn’t there, you have nothing. [Harry Turtledove’s “Guns of the South” where time-traveling Afrikaners go back into history to supply to supply the Confederacy with AK-47s to help them win the Civil War, has a passage where Robert E. Lee questions a time traveler about keeping a ‘querty’ (personal computer) working, the man answers “I can’t; you don’t have the technology to make the technology to make the technology (and so forth) to keep these things running.”])
2) The hubris of toxic masculinity coupled with bad history. The US “saved” the Allies in WWI, and “won WWII all by itself”, saving both the UK and USSR, is a belief held by millions if not most Americans. Nearly all of these idolize George S. Patton, and his alleged “blood and guts” approach to warfare (the fact that Patton in reality wasn’t nearly as good as Patton of legend isn’t known to them).
Andrew Cockburne wrote that all militaries have both a “military” tradition and a “militaristic” tradition; the former is a sober, rational, logical assessment of one’s own capabilities against one’s opponents, and how to best maximize those towards victory, while the latter is all about “blood and guts and toughness and masculinity” and such. The real advantage of the our top leadership in WWII was they excelled at the “military” thinking approach. Not that we had prima donnas like Patton strutting around. Today, all we have are prima donnas (Hi Pete!)
spud
Autarky works by promoting self-sufficiency, allowing societies or communities to rely on their own resources and production rather than external trade. This approach can help build resilience against external economic pressures and foster local economic development.
Wikipedia
Autarky is an economic system focused on self-sufficiency, where societies or communities rely on their own resources and production instead of depending on external trade. This approach has several benefits that contribute to its effectiveness.
Resilience Against External Pressures: By relying on local resources, communities can better withstand global economic fluctuations and crises. This independence helps mitigate risks associated with international trade, such as price volatility and supply chain disruptions.
Local Economic Development: Autarky encourages the growth of local industries and agriculture. This can lead to job creation and the development of skills within the community, fostering a more robust local economy.
Resource Control: Communities practicing autarky can manage their resources more effectively. This control allows them to prioritize sustainable practices and ensure that local needs are met without over-reliance on outside sources.
Autarky has been adopted by various political ideologies, particularly leftist movements, as a means to create alternative economic structures. For example, during the Civil Rights Movement, localized autarkic efforts were used to establish self-sufficient systems, such as the Montgomery Bus Boycott, which aimed to support the black community without relying on segregated public services.
Overall, autarky works by promoting self-sufficiency, which enhances resilience, supports local economies, and allows for better resource management. These factors contribute to the sustainability and independence of communities practicing this economic model.
Wikipedia
What are the benefits of autarky for local economies?
Autarky can reduce dependence on foreign trade and resources, making local economies more resilient to external shocks like wars or sanctions, and it can create more jobs and support local communities by encouraging greater local production and consumption.
Wall Street Oasis
How does autarky impact resilience against global economic crises?
Autarky can enhance resilience against global economic crises by promoting self-sufficiency and reducing dependence on external economic factors. This approach allows nations to mitigate risks associated with financial volatility and geopolitical uncertainties.
ijssrr.com Wikipedia
————-
canadians can throw that corrupt idiot brian Mulroney into this mess also. he set you up big time.
Bill Clinton’s administration largely embraced neoliberal policies, which included promoting free trade and globalization rather than autarky. His support for agreements like NAFTA exemplified this approach, as he sought to integrate the U.S. economy more closely with global markets.
Dissent The American Prospect
Bill Clinton’s Economic Policies
Embrace of Neoliberalism
Bill Clinton’s administration is characterized by a strong commitment to neoliberal economic policies. This approach emphasized free trade, globalization, and the integration of the U.S. economy with global markets.
Key Trade Agreements
Clinton’s support for significant trade agreements illustrates his stance against autarky:
Trade Agreement Year Description
NAFTA 1994 The North American Free Trade Agreement aimed to eliminate trade barriers between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, promoting free trade and economic integration.
Clinton’s policies facilitated the offshoring of manufacturing and contributed to the globalization of the economy. His administration’s focus on free trade agreements was a clear rejection of autarky, which advocates for self-sufficiency and minimal trade with other nations.
In summary, Bill Clinton’s presidency was marked by a proactive approach to globalization and free trade, firmly opposing autarky.
capitalandmain.com Dissent
The main criticisms of Brian Mulroney’s free trade policies include the loss of approximately 334,000 manufacturing jobs in Canada between 1988 and 1994, which represented a significant decline in the manufacturing sector’s contribution to the economy. Critics argue that these policies favored corporations and the wealthy while exacerbating income inequality and undermining workers’ rights and job security.
CliffsNotes springmag.ca
———
i expect nothing less than short term destructive thinking out of the capitalist class.
Ian Welsh
Actually, China doesn’t always obeys American secondary sanctions.
For example: https://fortune.com/2026/05/04/china-defiance-us-sanctions-iran-oil/
You’re so convinced that America is all-powerful you can’t see things have changed.
Feral Finster
Ian: I think you are responding to my remark in the other thread. China most assuredly does obey American secondary sanctions on Russia, and (IIRC) the US granted a waiver concerning Iran.
Ian Welsh
No: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-invokes-anti-sanctions-law-counter-us-blacklisting-refiners-2026-05-04/
And when they do, they conduct trade outside the dollar system thru minor banks:
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/09/04/beijing-versus-washington-the-new-economics-of-irans-sanctions-war/
It has also ignored secondary sanctions on Russian oil, and continues to sell Russia dual use items which allow Russia to build so many drones, missiles and other weapons. The major banks comply, but trade with Russia has increased since the Ukraine war, not decreased and much of that is in sanctioned dual use tech, and oil and so on that China is not supposed to buy, but does.
For now China wants its major banks to keep access to the dollar system, but that isn’t compliance. And it outright defied the bans on buying Iranian oil.
spud
StewartM
1) Well, how can you have “long term strategy” when your idol is “death bet” Ayn Rand, who preached that any strategy that includes the well-being of others, including posterity, is “immoral”? And how can one properly assess the contributions of others when all progress is created by a few John Galts with nothing at all contributed by the unthinking worker “herd”?
i always felt that the soviets let her go to the west, because they knew she would be embraced and elevated by the rich. the rich would make sure she had a voice way outside of anything she could ever have dreamed of.
thus undermining the rich, who are so stupid, they fell for the trap.
it was hilarious when greenspan said in public, perhaps i was mistaken,
Alan Greenspan admitted that his free-market ideology was flawed, stating, “I found a flaw” in his understanding of how markets operate, particularly regarding the self-regulation of financial institutions. He expressed shock at the failure of his beliefs, especially in light of the financial crisis.
Wikipedia PBS
spud
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KemkW5E55k
Democrats Paved the Way for Fascism — Jennifer Welch on MAGA, Socialism, and Political Revolution
Jennifer Welch, co-host of I’ve Had It and author of Not Today, Fascists, joins Current Affairs editor in chief Nathan J. Robinson to discuss the rise of Christian nationalism, her political evolution from establishment Democrat to outspoken progressive, and why she believes the Democratic Party needs a radical overhaul.
Greg
“Truly, American elites, while vicious and cunning are some of the worst long term strategists I’ve ever seen.”
True, but with no associated intelligence or wisdom.
The signs of American decadence and downfall are all over the place.
sic transit gloria mundi indeed.
spud
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6wLPr_DCIA
Elon Musk BUSTED As Devastating Financial Truth Surfaces In Contractor Disaster
Democracy Watch
Oct 1, 2026 #TheDamageReport #JohnIadarola #theyoungturks
Elon Musk gets busted by financial filings as contractors who worked on some of his biggest projects reveal they haven’t been getting paid for the work for years, which could be signaling an even worse financial stance for Musk. John Iadarola breaks it down on The Damage Report. Leave a comment with your thoughts below!
mago
Garbage in garbage out, or GIGO as the acronymists are fond of saying. Let’s go with the military FUBAR while we’re at it.
Goodbye to bad rubbish.
Sayonara baby.
GrimJim
Uncle Sam “In His Own Mind”
Lawful Good 20th Level Paladin
STR 18
DEX 18
CON 18
INT 18
WIS 18
CHA 18
Armor Class 25
Hit Points 280
Personality Traits
I have a strong sense of fair play and always try to find the most equitable solution to arguments.
My friends know they can rely on me, no matter what.
The common folk love me for my kindness and generosity.
Ideals
Fairness. No one should get preferential treatment before the law, and no one is above the law. (Lawful)
Noble Obligation. It is my duty to protect and care for the people beneath me. (Good)
Bonds
Everything I do is for the common people.
I worked the land, I love the land, and I will protect the land.
Flaws
None
Uncle Sam For Real
Chaotic Evil Three Kobolds in a Trench Coat
STR 6
DEX 4
CON 9
INT 8
WIS 3
CHA 3
Armor Class 7
Hit Points 12
Personality Traits
I am intolerant of other faiths and condemn the worship of other gods.
I lie about almost everything, even when there’s no good reason to.
I don’t pay attention to the risks in a situation. Never tell me the odds.
I blow up at the slightest insult.
I get bitter if I’m not the center of attention.
If you do me an injury, I will crush you, ruin your name, and salt your fields.
I was, in fact, raised by wolves.
Ideals
Greed. I will do whatever it takes to become wealthy. (Evil)
Greed. I’m only in it for the money and fame. (Evil)
Might. If I become strong, I can take what I want–what I deserve. (Evil)
Might. The strongest are meant to rule. (Evil)
Bonds
I will become the greatest thief that ever lived.
I will do anything to prove myself superior to my hated rivals.
Flaws
I am inflexible in my thinking.
I am suspicious of strangers and suspect the worst of them.
I’m always in debt. I spend my ill-gotten gains on decadent luxuries faster than I bring them in.
I’m convinced that no one could ever fool me in the way I fool others.
When I see something valuable, I can’t think about anything but how to steal it.
When faced with a choice between money and my friends, I usually choose the money.
If there’s a plan, I’ll forget it. If I don’t forget it, I’ll ignore it.
I’m quick to assume that someone is trying to cheat me.
My hatred of my enemies is blind and unreasoning.
Jan Wiklund
After having seen the effects of sanctions on South Africa and Zimbabwe, Erik Reinert, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_S._Reinert, advised other half-poor countries to do what they could to get sanctioned (It may have been in How rich countries got rich…, 2007, but maybe in some paper).
But where did Nvidia’s CEO said something about foolishness?
Feral Finster
“For now China wants its major banks to keep access to the dollar system, but that isn’t compliance. And it outright defied the bans on buying Iranian oil.”
What do you mean, that’s not compliance?
IIRC, the US granted a sanctions waiver with respect to Iranian oil, so the point is moot.
The West may be self-defeating, crude, and rely excessively on brute force. However, their opponents just want to get along and be liked, which makes them eminently sutiable victims.
Ian Welsh
The Iranian waiver was before the Iran war, it does not apply to recent secondary sanctions. China actually used its own anti-sanctions law and forbade companies from obeying those secondary sanctions.
“We trade with them anyway” is not compliance and that’s what has happened. Trade is massively up with Russia for example.
“Oh, some of their companies obey” does not change that fact.
Feral Finster
The waiver I am referring to came after oil prices spiked following the war.
China reduced purchases of Iranian crude regardless, in order to keep prices under control. A prime example of short-sighted foolishness.
Chinese trade with Russia peaked in 2024. Hardly “up massively”, although higher energy costs have helped.
And it doesn’t matter if Chinese banks comply with western sanctions as a result of Chinese government diktat or to avoid American punishment. The outcome is the same.
Altandmain
Hi Ian,
Have you heard that the US is going to try this with airplanes now?
https://x.com/Reuters/status/2105728235296133233
I guess that’s a confirmation that China will be transitioning to Cormac, which for those who are unaware, is their domestic manufacturing aircraft company, a few years faster than originally planned.
After witnessing the failure of the sanctions on computer chips and the total failure of the US sanctions against the Russians, the US is going to double down on failure.
Aircraft and computer chips are the 2 main industries that the Western world still has a lead. Maybe a third industry is space, in some fields, although that is open to debate.
One aspect of late stage empires is that they lack any capacity for self-reflection.
Altandmain
Minor typo above – COMAC is the Chinese aircraft manufacturer