History has cycles. When dealing with ideas about how to organize societies there are ideological and sub-ideological cycles. Various nations have been capitalist since the 16th century, but what the means kept changing, usually every 50 to 80 years. Britain started very protectionist. It had periods where imperialism and capitalism were very intertwined. It had laisszez faire periods. All of these were forms of capitalism, but they were quite different from each other. The Roman Empire is an empire from Augustus to the end, but the Rome of Augustus is very different from future Romes, with their serfs (something Augustinian Rome didn’t have), their German legionaires, and so on.
In our times there are people alive who remember two and a half transitions:
- The transition from laissez-faire (in America) to New Deal.
- The transition of New Deal to Neoliberalism.
- The transition of neoliberalism to whatever the new system will be called. (This is not the old system, Trump’s crazed tariffs, export controls to major buyers, the severe cutting of research, etc… all show that.)
In China they remember:
- The change from warlordism and Republicanism to Maoism.
- The change from Maoism to Dengism.
- The recent change from Dengism to Xiism.
Globally we remember multiple transitions as well
- The transition from the multi-great power world centered on America/Europe to the Cold War world dominated by the USSR and US. (Note this transition involved two world wars.)
- The transition from the cold war world to the unipolar superpower world with the US the world hegemonic power.
- The current transition from the American hegeomonic world to whatever will replace it.
In energy technology we have one and a half transitions:
- The transition from the coal world to the petrochem world;
- The current transition from the petrochem world to the electrical world based on other power sources.
Note that the technological cycle is a LOT slower. (And yes, I’ve left out the digital/telecom, but you could easily make the same sort of schema.
There is also the environmental question, and that’s part of various cycles. We aren’t different from other cultures in this regard: one thesis for the fall of Mesopotamia from the world’s leading region for six to eight thousand years is environmental. They aren’t the only ones.
We have multiple changes income all once:
- Sub ideological changes in how capitalism and democracy run in Europe and the US.
- A more or less complete change in China from Dengism to Xi-ism.
- A change to the world political system, with the rise of China and the weakness of America.
- Environmental collapse
- Climate Change
All of these at the same times. Not only is “nothing ever happens” bullshit (as it always was) but we live in a period of radical change, and it’s only going to become more obvious over time.
But there are people alive, albeit not many, who remember the pre-WWII world.
Change is constant. It seems slow to humans, but those who live a long life have seen a great, great deal of change. And we didn’t even discuss the way daily life has changed due to the change from the analog world to the digital one. (A change I personally think was probably more bad than good, though I certainly love large parts of it.) And, of course, there’s the revolution in war making technology, strategy and tactics, as big as the change to trench warfare, then the change to blitzkrieg and air war.
Everything changes. And if you have a perspective longer than a couple decades, everything changes pretty fast, actually. Certainly the world I grew up in, that I remember from the 70s and early 80s no longer exists.
In human affairs nothing is constant save change.
What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.
Dan Kelly
I’m often told ‘you just don’t like change!’ when I’m merely questioning whether the changes are ‘good’ and ‘to what end’, etc.
Change is often automatically stamped as progress but there is tremendous regress amidst the progress and good luck trying to conversate around that anywhere…aside from rare forums such as yours Ian.
The world still burns lots and lots and lots of coal.
‘there is tremendous regress amidst the progress’
This may always be the case but it is supercharged when there are less restraints on global capital flows.
spud
hilarious, oil down again today, the stock market is booming, even though Saudi oil facilities are burning. and that oil is now off of the market.
remember, capitalism is always, and i mean always in crisis.
Keen throws cold water on capitalism once again.
watch china and russia figure this out, whilst the oligarchs who help to create this idiotology mess, find out they are not so rich. but the socialist chinese are so rich, they can swat the rand pea brains like swatting a fly.
you can only imagine the white supremacist billionaires begging what they consider sub humans, to be able to be included in the asian economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcy4dL4v8B8
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david
There was a science fiction book published 16 or 17 years ago, set in the couple of centuries in the future, where the 2020’s are referred to as the time of the “soft apocalypse”.
Dan Kelly
‘watch china and russia figure this out, whilst the oligarchs who help to create this idiotology mess, find out they are not so rich. but the socialist chinese are so rich, they can swat the rand pea brains like swatting a fly’
spud, ypur idea of socialism is Liang Wenfeng’s upwards of forty billion dollars in net worth?!
bruce wilder
I wonder if there have ever been times and places in human (pre)history when stasis dominated. The 500+ years have witnessed what seems like an acceleration of technological development. The 1860-1960 century may have been truly extraordinary in terms of fundamental novelty, but science and tech have churned on.
But, I have to wonder about society and culture. Was it always generational turmoil in the many millennia of hunter-gatherer migrating to-and-fro? Was every time “epochal” even before technological advances began to multiply?
I saw Christopher Nolan’s Odyssey and thought the plot clunky but the visual entertaining. One of the conceits of the movie is that the characters are vaguely aware of the hubris of the Trojan War having brought on a civilizational collapse in a failure of morals and manners, with “Sea Peoples” on a distant, dark horizon. Epochal, indeed. But, has that been the reality of every fourth generation or so, since time immemorial?
spud
Dan Kelly:
he is to rich of course, that is if he can keep it. it requires that he toes the line so far, yet,
Yes, many wealthy individuals and corporations saw their fortunes grow during Franklin D. Roosevelt’s presidency, despite his New Deal policies aimed at economic recovery. This phenomenon is often described as “socialism for the rich,” where government interventions benefited the affluent while struggling populations faced ongoing challenges.
Wikipedia
Under FDR’s New Deal, many programs were implemented that aimed to provide relief and support to the poor, leading to job creation and improved living conditions. This included initiatives like the Civilian Conservation Corps and the Works Progress Administration, which helped many Americans during the Great Depression.
Wikipedia
Under Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal, various programs were established to support the poor and stimulate economic recovery during the Great Depression. These initiatives aimed to provide immediate relief, create jobs, and improve living conditions for many Americans.
The New Deal included several significant programs that directly benefited the poor:
Program Name Description Outcome
Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) Employed young men for unskilled work in rural areas, focusing on conservation projects. Provided jobs and improved rural infrastructure.
Works Progress Administration (WPA) Funded public works projects to create jobs in construction, arts, and education. Created millions of jobs and enhanced public facilities.
Federal Emergency Relief Administration (FERA) Provided financial assistance to state and local governments for relief efforts. Helped alleviate immediate poverty and hunger.
Agricultural Adjustment Act (AAA) Aimed to raise farm prices by reducing crop production. Supported struggling farmers and stabilized prices.
Overall Effects
These programs led to significant improvements in the lives of many impoverished Americans. Job creation through public works and direct assistance helped families regain stability and dignity during a challenging economic period. The New Deal’s focus on relief and recovery played a crucial role in helping the poor flourish despite the hardships of the Great Depression.
Wikipedia
——
under the new deal,
in the 1950s, the concept of billionaires was still relatively new, with John D. Rockefeller being the first confirmed billionaire in 1916. By the 1950s, other notable billionaires included figures like Henry Ford and J. Paul Getty, as the number of individuals reaching this wealth milestone began to grow.
Wikipedia
Overview of Billionaires in the 1950s
The 1950s marked a significant period in the history of wealth accumulation, as the concept of billionaires was still relatively new. The first confirmed billionaire, John D. Rockefeller, achieved this status in 1916, paving the way for others to follow.
Notable Billionaires of the 1950s
During the 1950s, several prominent figures reached billionaire status, contributing to the growing recognition of this wealth category. Key individuals included:
John D. Rockefeller: The first billionaire, known for his dominance in the oil industry.
Henry Ford: Founder of the Ford Motor Company, he revolutionized the automobile industry and became one of the wealthiest individuals of his time.
J. Paul Getty: An oil tycoon who became one of the richest men in the world, known for his extensive art collection and philanthropic efforts.
Growth of Billionaires
The number of billionaires began to increase during this decade, reflecting the post-World War II economic expansion. This period saw the rise of industrialists and entrepreneurs who capitalized on new technologies and consumer markets.
Billionaire Industry Notable Contributions
John D. Rockefeller Oil Founded Standard Oil, first billionaire
Henry Ford Automotive Revolutionized mass production of cars
J. Paul Getty Oil Established Getty Oil Company, art collector
The 1950s set the stage for the future growth of billionaires, as more individuals began to reach this wealth milestone, leading to the establishment of wealth rankings and the modern understanding of billionaires.
Wikipedia
———-
so it happened here under the new deal, as well as the fair deal, Gatt, and the great society.
if i was to advise the chinese, i would say don’t let it happen. and they might clamp down, but if they do not, as Ian has said, its their turn next.
mago
My sensei was fond of saying, water boils suddenly, and I always thought but never said, yeah, but it sits on the fire for some time first.
(By the way, the boiling frog thing doesn’t hold water because a frog is smart enough to spring out of the pot as the temperature increases.)
Anyway, a poetic comment Egoculexegonos made in the Nothing Matters thread awakened memories of days in rural Mediterranean Spain. Migrating birds heading north from Africa would stop at my compound along the way and the dawn song was a riot of beautiful music. It was heart stopping. (Then there were the field rats in the rafters, but never mind.)
That isolated sere plateau with its almond and olive orchards, three kilometers from a small farm village is now filled with luxury vacation condos and swimming pools. The single lane dirt road that ended at my dwelling place is now a paved highway that goes to god knows where. The compound with its trees and plants is no more, gone along with the birdsong’s dawn chorus.
It’s the same everywhere you go. My Tico friend tells me I wouldn’t recognize the remote Costa Rica beach town that was so dear to my heart.
My brother says the same about the small Western city where I grew up. I receive the same reports from both coasts.
My own neighborhood has changed significantly since the mid 90’s, even the mountain paths, although it’s mostly the same goofy neo hippie crowd but now hanging out along with techies and self entitled retirees who are generally second home owners.
And the climate has changed noticeably. You dwell in one place long enough living close to the earth and you get it. There’s no fictional frog in the pot syndrome happening.
Thanks for these posts, Ian. You’re pounding it home, even if one can’t go home anymore.
mago
This is so totally off topic, but I can’t resist after reading spud’s comments about the CCC, because one project the CCC accomplished in my neighborhood was terracing the foothills to prevent erosion, thus leaving hillside banks that still existed in my youth.
Around age eighteen I planted some Vietnamese pot seeds in one of those levels and carried a couple of gallons water almost daily to water my little darlings. After the first September frost I harvested and cured them.
People talk about the potency of today’s marijuana, but my crop was hallucinogenic. The phc was pitch perfect in that alkaline soil. While I gave up smoking the gange long ago, I give thanks to the CCC workers who created the hillside trenches where I planted my plants.
Here’s to government work when it mattered and cared for the people.
spud
this might work today getting rid of the rich, it helped the Renaissance. but alas, as always, ended up in corruption.
Florence reduced the power of its wealthiest families during the late 13th century by shifting political control to the mercantile elite and enacting the Ordinances of Justice in 1293, which weakened the aristocracy’s dominance.
introducingflorence.com Wikipedia
During the late 13th century, Florence experienced significant political changes that reduced the influence of its wealthiest families. This shift was largely driven by the need to address social and economic inequalities.
Ordinances of Justice (1293): This legislation was crucial in diminishing the power of the aristocracy. It established a new political structure that favored the mercantile elite over the traditional noble families.
Rise of the Mercantile Elite: As trade and commerce flourished, wealthy merchants gained prominence. They began to take control of political offices, which had previously been dominated by aristocratic families.
Weakened Aristocracy: The new laws and the rise of the mercantile class led to a significant decline in the political power of the old aristocracy. This change allowed for a more inclusive governance structure that represented a broader segment of society.
Increased Social Mobility: The shift in power dynamics allowed for greater opportunities for individuals from non-aristocratic backgrounds to participate in governance and economic activities.
This transformation marked a pivotal moment in Florence’s history, setting the stage for its development as a major center of trade and culture during the Renaissance.
Wikipedia introducingflorence.com
The mercantile elite in Florence gained significant political power during the 13th century by organizing themselves into guilds and controlling trade, which allowed them to challenge the traditional aristocracy and shape the governance of the city. This shift in power was marked by the decline of noble influence and the rise of a more democratic system led by wealthy merchants.
introducingflorence.com History Guild
After the nobility was driven out, Florence was governed as an oligarchic republic, primarily by wealthy merchant families and guilds, particularly from 1115 to 1494 and again from 1498 to 1532. The government was organized under a council called the Signoria, which consisted of nine elected members from the guilds, ensuring that no single group could dominate the political landscape.
Wikipedia Encyclopedia Britannica
Governance of Florence After the Nobility’s Expulsion
Oligarchic Republic
After the nobility was expelled, Florence was governed as an oligarchic republic. This system was primarily in place from 1115 to 1494 and again from 1498 to 1532. The governance was characterized by the following features:
Wealthy Merchant Families: The political power was held by affluent merchant families and guilds, which played a crucial role in the city’s administration.
Signoria: The government was organized under a council known as the Signoria. This council consisted of nine elected members, ensuring a balance of power among different factions.
Structure of the Signoria
The Signoria was designed to prevent any single group from dominating the political landscape. Key aspects include:
Composition: The nine members were elected from the ranks of the guilds, which represented various trades and professions in Florence.
Elections: Members were chosen through a system that involved random selection from a pool of eligible guild members, promoting fairness and preventing corruption.
Term Limits: The members served short terms, typically around two months, to encourage frequent changes in leadership and prevent the consolidation of power.
This governance structure allowed Florence to thrive as a center of culture, commerce, and political innovation during the Renaissance.
Wikipedia Encyclopedia Britannica
Jan Wiklund
George Kennan thought, in his Memoirs, that people live too long. The world they were schooled into doesn’t exist when they are in their 50s. In his case it was the coming of the auto and energy-waste age in the 40s-50s, which he detested intensely. Yet he lived until being 101.
Bullweather
I’m reading The Leopard by Tomasi di Lampedusa. I’m sure you’ve read it. A lot of wisdom about change wrapped up in a beautifully written, sardonic, and biting criticism of those in power and those soon to seize it.
I, like the Sicilians, long to sleep and not be disturbed. I pray I am not on the underside of Lady Fortuna’s Wheel.
Dan Kelly
‘if i was to advise the chinese, i would say don’t let it happen. and they might clamp down…’
I believe Michael Hudson has actually given this advice to groups of Chinese economists?
I didn’t get the sense that the advice was taken to heart.
—
‘The world they were schooled into doesn’t exist when they are in their 50s. In his case it was the coming of the auto and energy-waste age in the 40s-50s, which he detested intensely.’
This is a different ballgame entirely.
A network of cameras is quietly watching every car in N.J. Here’s what it knows about you.
https://www.nj.com/middlesex/2026/07/a-network-of-cameras-is-quietly-watching-every-car-in-nj-heres-what-it-knows-about-you.html
The Impending, Inescapable Deluge of A.I.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/07/29/technology/ai-chips-data-center-boom.html
But jobs!!!:
A.I. Companies Are Recruiting Electricians and Carpenters by the Thousands
The future of artificial intelligence depends on finding more skilled humans for some very physical jobs.
https://archive.ph/f1p75
The only way to survive is to help in the building of the full-spectrum surveillance state-world
spud
Dan Kelly:
yep, hudson knows. that’s why i tell bric supporters, watch out, you might be trading one master for another.
so far the human race has gotten around one technical advance after another. also new technology ends up creating more jobs than its destroyed. i feel that scenario will not be interrupted.
mice still allude the ever more technical traps.
different clue
Are sneaky efforts to destroy the meaning of “weights and measures” a little part of the Epochal times we are living through?
“Umm.. am I dumb? 12oz = 1lb now??”
https://www.reddit.com/r/mildlyinfuriating/comments/1vaekhw/umm_am_i_dumb_12oz_1lb_now/
different clue
The surveillance aspect of creeping epochality . . .
A Texas Deputy Searched 83,000 Flock Cameras To Track Down a Woman Who Had an Abortion
https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/1vb1s8f/a_texas_deputy_searched_83000_flock_cameras_to/
Will the abortion rights movement start destroying Flock Cameras all over America?
mago
thinking you mean elude, not allude spud, but yeah, hoping we can make the great escape wherever and whoever we are.
Love and happiness. . .