Anyway, this is getting real. Between the Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, which have been very successful, Iranians hits, and now the Houthis, I don’t see how we avoid serious shortages. It’s the refineries that matter most: crude is worthless without refineries and they’re expensive, take a long time to build and aren’t always easy to repair, depending on what exactly got hit.
I also don’t see how we avoid massive famines and increased food prices in places that don’t have a formal famine. A lot of fertilizer runs from oil thru refineries.
The irony here (conspiracy theorists of elite intentions to depopulate the world, here you go) that Trump confirmed he OK’d the Saudi strike on the Houthi airport which set Ansar-Allah off. They’ve closed the strait and they’re going right for the jugular vein with these refinery strikes. If they keep shooting, the missiles will get thru. The defenders have to be lucky every time, they only have to be lucky on occasion.
Beans and rice. If you need distillates like diesel or motor oil, stock up now. It’s hard to stock up on medicine, but a lot also used petrochemicals, so do what you can: even simple things like aspirin are included.
Anyway, I don’t think Trump is together enough to have a diabolical super villain plan. To the extent he can plan at all, it’s about his next corrupt scam or bribe. But it amounts to the same thing in the end.
It’s hard to overstate how much this will destroy all goodwill for America in the globe. I mean all of it. Everyone knows the US started the war and refuses to stop it, whatever their reasons are. And when people can’t eat, the hatred will be immense. Iran will catch some backlash, but most people get that they’re defending themselves.
Empires end ugly and stupid. The rule of incompetence in late Imperial rulership maintains its record. I expected stupid, but it’s still flabbergasting to witness late Imperial Roman levels of moronitude.
Amazing.
Amazing is not a synonym for good.
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ventzu
Michael Hudson has been predicting a major depression and famine.
Unfortunately these shortages are going to hit the global south first (and worst) before the western empire. And they will take time to manifest in the West.
The US cannot walk away from this, until forced to, as it would be an abject surrender and a clear signal of the fall of the western empire. The USD would face a crisis of confidence. Europe may even play a more active role in supporting the US. Andy Burnham, our new shiny PM in the UK, has already authorised the use of bases in the US for bombing runs, which Trump pre-announced as war crimes (targeting civilian infrastructure).
Iran / Yemen should not stop since their only route to a ‘normal’, non-threatened, non-sanctioned existence is to drive the US firmly out of West Asia. However they may come under pressure from China, Russia and others to compromise. They shouldn’t.
So this is now a race between US missile depletion, a capital markets collapse (when they finally wake up) and pressure on Iran to compromise. Depression / starvation, playing out on a longer timescale, will not be comprehensible to the US clown show, until it hits them in the face.
rw95
Nothing ever happens.
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How long until America’s refineries come under attack? Any guesses? Some will rebut that it would never or will never happen. My retort to them is you are being more than naive. Ukraine, thanks to Russia, has ushered in a new era of warfare and this warfare transcends countries and instead favors warring factions, or warlordism if you prefer. This new form of warfare will bring countries to their knees and collapse once formidable fortresses of power in a matter of a few years let alone months.
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rw95 has a point. Where’s the beef, right? People have been crying collapse for nearly two decades now and the cries have become more prominent and prodigious over this time period and yet nothing, or nothing substantial at least, ever happens. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer, same as it ever was except now it’s accelerating.
Ian Welsh
Everything is about on track. And the idea that nothing happens is hilarious. Covid? The financial crisis? This war? China officially leading the US in tech and industry? Heat coming on faster than expected? Massive wildfires every summer? Trump being President? The Ukraine war? That little genocide in Palestine? The US being unable to build enough weapons? The complete breakdown of international law and (more seriously) the WTO trade order? A complete revolution in war making technology which has allowed middle powers to fight great powers?
I imagine some Roman in 390AD.
“Nothing ever happens.”
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Ian, you are misunderstanding. Nothing earth-shattering, truly apocalyptic in the truest sense of that word, ever happens. All that you have mentioned has happened before in one form or another, but as I say, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, meaning, the rich are still getting richer, be they Chinese or American or Russian or you name it, and the poor continue to get poorer and poorer.
Ian Welsh
Oh, don’t worry. We’re on our way. Most things are either on schedule or ahead. A few things are behind.
John9
For those lost in or bored with their peaceful existence.
How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly. Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
Or even better:
I sit in one of the dives
On Fifty-second Street
Uncertain and afraid
As the clever hopes expire
Of a low dishonest decade:
Waves of anger and fear
Circulate over the bright
And darkened lands of the earth,
Obsessing our private lives;
The unmentionable odour of death
Offends the September night.
From Sept 1, 1939. WH Auden
mago
Moronitude? Interesting word and true. It was no secret that Iran would close the strait in the event of war. It was widely proclaimed.
They didn’t start this disaster by bombing schools and civilian infrastructure in Israel and elsewhere. Israel and the US did that to Iran, but somehow it’s Iran’s fault that the world’s falling off the cliff, at least according to Western propaganda machines otherwise known as the media.
Oh, yeah, everything is happening rapidly and with catastrophic consequences. I’ll just weigh in with one observation about food costs since I regularly purchase food for programs and individuals. Right now as we enter early harvest season the cost of fruits and vegetables is roughly, but not quite, double of what it was a year ago. It takes about $100 to buy what once cost sixty. I’m talking organic here, but I suspect that commercial produce is the same. Then there are grains, dairy and meat—all costlier. And as they say, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
It really bites for those of us on fixed incomes. Fortunately, I have some food skills, but even so, it’s going to be a grind.
On a cosmic scale it may be true that nothing’s happening, but down on the ground, everything’s happening, and it’s mostly miserable. To repeat myself once again , may the gods have mercy.
spud
when this first started, i made the observation that the powers that be, could care less if oil and all of its spinoffs, were made scarce.
when bill clinton deregulated commodities, i saw a wall street parasite on the steps of some trading house, declare the era of scarcity is here.
even though nothing was scarce at the time. he knew full well what the parasites were going to do.
you would think trump was trying to cause more scarcity by letting the saudi’s do something that stupid. well, the era of scarcity is still here.
the oil in the ground here, controlled by those same parasites, and the refining capacity is here, controlled by the same parasites, now its all worth more money, than even before.
so the tapeworms are in a feeding frenzy that will only end with their own demise.
if russia and china push for capitulation, the regular attacks on moscow will become daily, will not only intensify, more dangerous weapons will be introduced till the city is in rubble, beijing will be next.
the western trading empire can’t handle two weaker countries, how are they gonna handle two weaker countries, plus russia and china if they are smart enough to understand what they are up against, and that they will never ever be welcome into the club that rules trade.
either they hang together, or they will hang separately.
Nat Wilson Turner
One important caveat, Ansar Allah only hit Aramco storage tankers last night according to the reports I’ve seen on X. They have not yet hit the actually refineries. MSB has an off ramp. He’s too stupid to take it, but it’s there.
different clue
The conspiracy theories which these events could encourage and support do not accord with my particular taste in conspiracy theories.
If a die-off were to happen so fast right after a visibly die-off-ogenic event that millions or billions of people saw it happening in fast-forward real-time, they would rebel one way or another. Even if it wasn’t really a deliberately engineered dieoff-o-genic event.
The ” lets kill seven billion people” overclass wants it to happen slowly enough that it looks like a series of accidents, bad luck, fate, etc. It has to be HIDDEN in plain sight, so as not to upset the masses and make the natives restless. So a slow silent century of global hotting, deliberately encouraged and permitted pandemics, a forced-lowering of the mood of a billion or so people to where they decide they don’t want to bring any children into such a world, marinating all the people of the world in a thin soup of sterilogenic endocrine disrupters, etc.
The upcoming oil shortage and its near-instant population and suffering effects will be so unavoidably visible as to drive some to revolt and others to fast-forward their “living with less oil” plans.
For example, fertilizer? (And this means Haber-Bosch Nitrogen fertilizer specifically in this context). Chemo-clean eco-correct High-Bio-Science growers don’t use any Haber-Bosch Nitrogen at all whatsoever . There are so few of such growers that they can all be named by name. Gabe Brown, Gary Zimmer, etc. But they claim they are getting yields near-or-equal to their Haber-Bosch neighbors with zero Haber and zero Bosch. Such claims can be measured and debunked if they are false, and so far I have not seen anyone able to debunk these claims of Haber-Bosch levels of production with zero Haber and zero Bosch.
So if Gabe Brown and Gary Zimmer and the other Zero Haber-Bosch farmers and growers ( who are so few that they can all be named) are seen by their neighbors to maintain that production in the teeth of worldwide Haber-Bosch shortages, their neighbors may become so desparate and afraid for their own survival that they might in their despair swallow their pride and adopt those ” Hippie-Dippy” no Haber no Bosch methods. And that would run exactly counter to what the Mass Depopulation Conspiracy wants to achieve.
So this particular set of Conspiracy Theories doesn’t suit my taste in Conspiracy Theories. And we see my own favorite Conspiracy Theory playing out very nicely in real time over the last thirty years. What do you think explains the deliberate conspiracy between the WHO and other Evil Actors to deliberately on purpose turn Covid into an uncontrollable pandemic by delaying the declaration of pandemic till they could be sure it really was an unstoppable one? Riddle me that, eh?
As they say about Conspiracy Theories . . . its not a theory if it happened. Or is happening.
This oil and gas mega-shortage on the way merely disrupts all those best-laid Mass Slow Dieoff plans. It may short circuit them and shut them down completely.
Feral Finster
As long as the police and army follow orders, as long as there’s enough for the billionaires, and Israel is happy, why should anyone of influence and authority care?
Feral Finster
“MSB has an off ramp. He’s too stupid to take it, but it’s there.”
Why would he, and risk those swiss bank accounts, those London trophy properties, those US investments?
Purple Library Guy
The longer this goes on the more bad stuff will happen. But, also one good thing: Country after country will put serious priority on energy transition, for national security and just because it’s cheaper. China’s gonna be selling solar panels and batteries and EVs by the gajillion. Anyone who has to import their natural gas will be pushing heat pumps. Even industrial processes will start to shift.
By the time this crisis is over, the world is going to wake up and find that demand for crude is down and continuing to decline (mostly because of energy transition, partly because of economic recessions). After the drastically high oil prices we will see drastically low oil prices, and with a bit of luck the economic fortunes, and political power, of the oil companies will never recover. Which in turn means significantly less money poured into promoting fascism.
Mark Level
A timely post as usual from the host. I’m not sure how “very successful” the Banderist strikes on Russian Refineries have been, many informed sources have noted these are petrol/grease bombs being dropped to create massive amounts of smoke, look like things entirely destroyed when actually they may return to full production in days, or just over a week at most. It is pure Narrative, hollow. Repeating myself, imagine if Napoleon had invaded Newcastle to steal all the coal; a Sisyphisian task, like the Trumpist Morons’ wishes they can invade some sealed room in Iran and “liberate” the “nuclear dust” (an absurd Trump Neologism) in their bulky Hazmat suits . . . it will be unguarded and nobody with guns will oppose them, of course!! Just risible.
Ian’s 5th paragraph on preparation very valuable. I am close to getting out, soon, but if you’re stuck in U$A, very solid advice. Find some hippie-style small farmers somewhat off the grid and barter your labor for food and shelter. (Were I still in Minnesota, I know a couple nearing 80 who live this lifestyle, they’re the first ones I would contact.)
You are mostly right that there is no Trump “diabolical super plan.” I mean there are some for pump and dumping the oil market, or his BitCoin shit (which he’s made billions off of), Insider Trading, etc. And I do believe he has some “ideas” about cancelling or just outright Federalizing and stealing the Midterms and even (he claims) getting “a 4th Term”, imagining that Brain-Bleed Joe’s never occurred and he was secretly, actually in power, I mean he was anointed by “God” (the Fascist White Supremacist GI Joe god). Were he targeting Libs for death outright, rather a harder nut to crack. They are mostly prosperous, somewhat well-protected, maybe you could poison some de luxe products that they use, high end alcohol, arugula (the vegetable that killed “Dr. Oz’s” political career and gave us the brain-damaged Fetterman baying for Palestinian babies’ blood.)
Dr. Jan Oberg, a Swede, has published an account of the billion$ Trump has stolen, or a big chunk of it; does that matter? Likely not, the Duopoly MOTU’s believe in impunity, it’s a Noblesse Oblige amongst themselves. I’ve cited billions in Medicare Fraud by Rick Scott, one commenter disagrees but it’s clear enough, minor fine paid (15% or so of what was stolen), he continues to fail upward, like Gates, maybe not Zuckerberg, but many others.
Nice reply to Rw95 (who may be indulging in snark) and LaS. Don’t treat existential threats as a joke; that will not end well.
ventzu, well-stated. John9, a timely quote. The September 11th PsyOp was the moment the West, USA in particular started the Doomsday plot. Announced Wars on RoW, everyone (except the Zio-Entity, Argentina, fellow fascists). Slow and then fast decline.
The Oct. 2025 Harper’s featured a great piece by Seth Harp, famous for his excellent book The Fort Bragg Cartel, on the failed clown-show that is the US MIC under War Secretary Hegseth, the traitor/spy Mike Walz, didn’t become SoS due to inviting Israeli Agent David Frum to a Confidential War-Planning phone confab, Frum spat in his face, hey even an asshole can sometimes do a good act. Walz now has some make-work, do-nothing job at the UN. Harp’s piece, “Mission Impossible: The sad state of the American armed forces,” documents junk equipment costing billion$ and killing Marines and other Servants of Empire, shit like the Osprey aircraft, which had at the time of reporting (9 months ago) killed dozens of “servicemen/women” across a variety of Imperial postings, Marines, AF, infantry, Special Forces, etc.
He centers the reporting on the previous “semisesquintennial” last year of the US with Trump’s pathetic “Military Parade” in D.C. Melania on the dais with him staring down at the CHUDs with “cold contempt,” broken-down tanks, sauntering not-“marching” soldiers, fat, bored and disengaged. Due Dissidence among others did a great segment on this at the time as well, easy enough to show juiced-up Russians, the Chinese Women, etc. high-kick formation marching vs. CHUD soldiers who get exhausted not even pretend-marching 2 miles. He concludes with the comforting note that “This isn’t a sign of ascendant fascism so much as the nadir of late-stage capitalism, which depends on foreign wars to juice corporate profits at a time of falling rates of return on investment.” Yes, War is a Racket, in a way well beyond what Smedley Butler even imagined a Century ago.
Harp’s book details that “the sacred Troops” aren’t all those buff, handsome Boys Trump dotes over saying “We’re PROUD to die for Team America, Chief!!” Nope, at Fort Bragg they trafficked in drugs from Mexican contacts, did assassinations for hire for civilians, and killed their rivals for trade, no loyalty, no honor among thieves, predators. Very High suicide rates among these Special Ops boys (in one case, he murdered his pregnant wife and the “baby” before offing himself), also are the #1 Demographic for Mass Shootings. The dude who drove his shit Tesla brick car into Trump Tower in NYC, killed himself (only) with a bomb detonated from inside it (saw this pic again online couple days ago) was a traumatized Vet, killing brown people is almost as good for mental health as some months under MK-Ultra training.
Back to the main thread– mago’s nota bene on the Macrocosm v. the Microcosm makes a great deal of sense. “The Gods” of the Ancients treated men and women like the Gates’ set does us Normies, we’re little insects that they can delight in tearing the wings off of. Elon interviewed by a friendly source, the Economist, recently. They asked him about his desire for a Race War in the UK especially, how can he say at one moment that in 7 years Robots will run everything, people will receive checks directly from the oh-so-generous Federal Government to entertain themselves with meaningless jollies, universal UBI, Land of Cockayne!! But at the same time, race war, the Savage Browns forcing Islam down white peoples’ throats, they must all be enslaved, castrated, killed!! He couldn’t answer, just melted down with rage.
To spud’s point, Trump was happy to take lavish gifts, giant jet, Gold Bars, Jewels, etc. from those desert sheiks, but clearly has nothing but contempt for them, dirty Muslim Camel Jockies, not full on “Sand-N—–rs” like the Palestinians, but– Bragged when he started his term with MBS in the room, “Oh, MBS is constantly kissing my Ass, he loves it.” Uhm, sure.
his goes to Nat W.T’s excellent point, is MBS so stupid he won’t take an off-ramp, or does the Zionist Entity have some Compromat on him as well? Beyond having a rival (CIA agent writing in the WaPo) murdered in the Embassy, cut into pieces, a brief “minor” scandal (Biden said he wouldn’t meet with him), he may have done some other killing/ dismemberment/ White Slavery stuff that means he is 100% controlled, as the Epstein Class generally are.
spud also correct, suppose Russia and China “push for capitulation?” I don’t think the IRGC will play along, things are even more Existential for the Iranian populace than for the Russians, as puny, corrupt, insane-in-the-Ukraine-Membrane was never a real Great Power Rival. I think if the IRGC crumbled there would be a real revolt among the populace, not welcoming back the Shah, but pushing to fully incinerate the ZAE.
It’s gonna get ugly; take all precautions you can, and look for ways out. Hexagram 23 of the Yi King advises “Get Out!!” If roof is about to fall, evacuate elsewhere. Sometimes when you live in an All War All the Time Empire, the Sky actually is Falling!!
Soredemos
‘Nothing ever happens’ is a particular meme that has always had a certain degree of sarcasm to it. Lot’s of things happen all the time in all kinds of places, most of them bad things. But the point is that from the heart of the Imperial system the system as a whole basically keeps grinding on. It degrades, it gets worse, things get more expensive or harder to do. But it has yet to catastrophically break. Even with something like 2008 or covid society didn’t actually collapse, or even get very close to it in any real sense.
Tell, for example, an Iraqi in 2003 that ‘nothing ever happens’ and it would be an absurd statement. But if you live in the United States the last few decades many things have happened, but the world hasn’t fundamentally broken. Houses got foreclosed on, maybe your cousin died of a fentanyl overdose, lots of people died of covid (though you may or may not have known any of them), maybe your kids are still living with you and will probably have to inherit your house, food has gotten more expensive. But the lumbering giant that is American civilization continues to operate through massive inertia. Very few people alive today remember the Great Depression, which is the last time things completely, visibly broke.
Carborundum
The reporting I am seeing indicates that the strait is closed to Saudi shipping, rather than all shipping. Has anyone seen anything different?
Jay
Also ironic is that while Israel often uses the epithet ‘the world’s most moral army’, it properly applies to the IRGC. By any and every metric, they have conducted themselves in a manner that is a shining example to other armed forces.
Ian Welsh
Any shipping from Saudi ports.
different clue
Here is an article about retail food prices that have already been rising and will start rising even harder before they resume rising yet more.
Americans rewire their grocery shopping routines while digesting the biggest price jump in 50 years
https://apnews.com/article/grocery-shopping-prices-food-affordability-8468c1d6532ca762bbcfa17e3c7707d1
Carborundum
Ah yes, that would be significant. And leaves the potential for escalation.
Marc
Hi Ian,
Did you wonder as well, why the proposed oil shock 1-2 month after the closure of the strait of Hormus didn’t happened? A few month back I embarrassed myself when I told my neighbour to fill up her car TODAY, because gas would not get cheaper for the next 6-8 month. Three days later gas prices dropped… *lol*
Max Fisher (one of the better YT-channels) did a rough calculation how the -20 mio barrel/day shortage became “only” a -5 mio barrel/day shortage: “Xi quietly saved the world last month” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0
Now, with more or less depleted strategic oil reserves (that added +2.5 mio barrel/day) and Saudi oil more or less off the table, the situation will get more ugly.
Wildfires:
WHO: Europe experienced a 57% increase in wildfires in the last 5 years (+200% increase in Portugal and +100% in Spain ):
https://www.euronews.com/2026/07/24/wildfires-up-57-in-europe-in-just-four-years-who-warns
According to Google Maps, yesterday we had wildfires in 19 US states, 4 Canadian provinces, Brasil, Paraguay, Kenia, 9 islands in Indonesia, Australia, Portugal, Spain, France, Corsica, Italy, Sardinia, Sicily, Montenegro… The wildfires in Germany and Norway lasted till a few days ago, the wildfires in the Czech Republic and Greece where a few weeks back.
vmsmith
“I’m not sure how “very successful” the Banderist strikes on Russian Refineries have been, many informed sources have noted these are petrol/grease bombs being dropped to create massive amounts of smoke . . . ”
Those many informed sources are being silly. If Ukrainian drones could get close enough to drop off grease bombs, why would they not simply carry explosive warheads and do real damage?
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Those many informed sources are being silly. If Ukrainian drones could get close enough to drop off grease bombs, why would they not simply carry explosive warheads and do real damage?
Excellent retort, Charlie. Spot on.
Carborundum
Trade press is reporting that Ukrainian refinery targeting has been increasingly going after secondary processing units, with specific mention of hydrocrackers. The overall strategy is not surprising if one seeks to hit critical nodes within an oil refinery. I’m personally a little skeptical about hydrocrackers, given how robust these structures tend to be, but overall definitely indicative that there’s more than grease bombs involved (more so if the bit about the hydrocrackers is true).
Feral Finster
” the Banderist strikes on Russian Refineries have been, many informed sources have noted these are petrol/grease bombs being dropped to create massive amounts of smoke, look like things entirely destroyed when actually they may return to full production in days, or just over a week at most.”
This is another one of those copes/wishful thinking that the alt-media loves so much.
If those strikes were not successful, why do we see fuel shortages in Russia?
The Ukrainians and their American sponsors are evil, but they are winning, in large part, due to Russian dithering and indecision (remember how L&S proclaimed anyone who would ally with Trump to be evil? Apparently he gives Ukraine a waiver here….)
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Apparently he gives Ukraine a waiver here….)
No, I don’t.