The math is simple. If Iran keeps firing, and the US/Israel does not take out the launchers and missile stockpiles in large numbers, Iran will run the US and Israel (it has its own variants, but the same supply issues) out of interceptors. At that point Iran hits everything it shoots at.
If Iran just keeps going long enough, it WILL win the war. The main danger is Iran’s leaders accepting a cease-fire too soon.
Well, confirmation from within the government:
“The U.S. is planning for a wider war,” said one U.S. official familiar with internal administration discussions, adding that the Pentagon was increasing the number of military aircraft in the region.But the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media, cautioned that the expansion of U.S. operations will be limited by dwindling stockpiles of air defense and long-range munitions and constraints on the ability to surge more troops and aircraft into the area because of battle damage.“We do not have enough to safely sustain operations, and I don’t think the White House is aware of that,” the official said.
You will notice that I said the main mistake the Iranians could make was going to peace too soon. At least militarily speaking, there were diplomatic reasons to do so, since both Pakistan and China wanted a peace deal, and Pakistan has a defense pact with Saudi Arabia. Iran needed to prove that they had made all possible efforts, to continue receiving the support they need from China and to keep Pakistan out of the war.
There were also significant internal political reasons. What most people don’t understand is that the supreme leader almost never over-rides government consensus. Elijah Manjier is reliable on this (part behind a paywall). He has a lot of contacts in Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.
The Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Sayyed Mojtaba Khamenei, never trusted the Memorandum of Understanding negotiated with Washington that was too good to be true. From the outset, he reportedly expressed reservations about American real and honest intentions and questioned whether the United States would ultimately implement its commitments. Nevertheless, despite his scepticism, he did not impose his personal assessment on the country’s political institutions or prevent the agreement from proceeding once it had secured substantial institutional support equivalent to the majority of the National Security Council voting.
In doing so, Sayyed Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly followed the political approach adopted by his assassinated father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the negotiations that produced the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Although the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei repeatedly warned that the United States could not be fully trusted, he allowed President Hassan Rouhani, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and the majority supporting them within the Supreme National Security Council to pursue the nuclear agreement because they believed diplomacy remained preferable to confrontation.
This position reflected a broader principle within Iran’s strategic decision-making system. The Leader establishes the general direction of national policy, but crucial security decisions are debated within institutions that include officials elected directly or indirectly by the population and their representatives, among them the president, the parliamentary speaker and senior government and military representatives. When a substantial institutional majority supports a particular course, the Leader permitted that collective judgement to be tested, even where it conflicts with his personal assessment of the risks involved.
However, the MOU’s failure strengthens those in the government who thought it was a waste of time.
The damage extends beyond the current political leadership. Future Iranian governments, regardless of their ideological orientation, will judge the risks of dealing with Washington against the combined experiences of the JCPOA and the more recent Memorandum. Even officials inclined towards negotiation may conclude that engagement carries prohibitive domestic costs unless future arrangements include enforceable guarantees, simultaneous implementation and mechanisms preventing one party from receiving concessions before abandoning its own obligations…
…Yet diplomatic options have not disappeared completely. The Memorandum itself showed that both sides remain capable of negotiating when the military, political and economic costs become sufficiently high. Any renewed process, however, would require a substantially different structure based on reciprocal implementation, verifiable sequencing, the release of assets alongside measurable Iranian steps, and guarantees sufficiently credible to survive political change in Washington or Tehran.
Manjier’s connected. I’d assume the last paragraph reflects what the Iranian government wants said about any possible new agreement.
Meanwhile in the war itself the Iranians are concentrating on taking out US bases, radars, supply depots, command/communications centers and so on. They’re systematically degrading the infrastructure the US uses. Note that they have started attacking in Jordan, which they had rarely done before. Jordan could be considered the “last shield” before Israel, and Israel’s basing of US assets is the next big goal, I suspect.
It seems clear that Iran is taking apart US logistics and command and control, and depleting weapon stocks faster than the US is doing this to Iran.
Again, the simple math.
Anything can happen in war, but I don’t see any way for the US to win this war if Iran stays the course, and we haven’t even included all the shortages coming down the line, especially now Ansar-Allah has closed another strait. The only people with serious leverage over Iran are China and Pakistan (and Pakistan’s is limited. There’s a deal, but they’d have mass riots if they tried to attack Iran. Pakistan’s population support for Iran polls around 80%.)
If America were even marginally competently run this would be the point where Congress would impeach Trump. He won’t admit defeat and oil stockpiles are running low. He has no viable part to victory, but keeps acting as if he does. He’s turning a military defeat into an economic catastrophe thru his delusional disconnect from reality, or perhaps because he’s being blackmailed. Whatever the reason for his behaviour, he needs to go. (Yes, I’m aware this won’t happen, that’s the point.)
In all my life, and I’m getting old now, I have never seen a stupider war or an American elite more determinedly detached from reality.
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spud
you would think of what the russians went through, minsk twice, plus more. it would have opened some eyes. but its not even opened enough eyes in the russian leadership, let alone other countries, except north korea so far.
the smell and thrill of being admitted into the davos elite, is just to strong for many to over come.
the elite are so so so far away from the average americans, and that elitism stretches all the way down to local levels, try talking at a town council, or a cop, and see where it gets you.
this is who the elites will listen to,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z14zDbdyfu0
Elon Musk Loses BIG In SpaceX Stock Crash As Alarming Congress Purchases Revealed
Elon Musk loses massively as his company SpaceX’s stock continues to crater while alarms sound over congress members buying up the stock and what that would mean for future government decisions or contracts for the company. John Iadarola and Yasmin Kahn break it down on The Damage Report. Leave a comment with your thoughts below!
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musk must have watched robinson crusoe on mars, when he first spoke about living on mars and mining, it clicked with me. i saw it on the big screen when i was a kid. of course i knew it was a fantasy, just like star trek and star wars. but people who are elites, might take it seriously, looks like he did. and you can see why the elites running america, are such morons.
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Elon Musk’s vision for colonizing Mars has been compared to the themes of survival and adaptation found in the story of “Robinson Crusoe.” He aims to establish a self-sustaining city on Mars, similar to how Crusoe adapted to life on a deserted island, with plans for a million inhabitants by 2050. Musk’s goal is to make humans a multi-planetary species, echoing the survival instincts of Crusoe.
BBC Business Insider
Elon Musk’s Vision for Mars Colonization
Elon Musk’s ambition to colonize Mars draws parallels to the themes of survival and adaptation found in the story of “Robinson Crusoe.” His plans reflect a desire to create a self-sustaining city on Mars, where humans can thrive in a new environment.
Key Aspects of Musk’s Mars Plan
Population Goal: Musk aims to establish a city with a population of one million by 2050.
Multi-Planetary Species: His overarching goal is to make humans a multi-planetary species, ensuring the survival of humanity beyond Earth.
Survival and Adaptation: Similar to Crusoe’s adaptation to life on a deserted island, Musk envisions humans adapting to the Martian environment.
Comparison to “Robinson Crusoe”
Aspect Elon Musk’s Mars Vision Robinson Crusoe’s Story
Survival Establishing a self-sustaining city Adapting to life on a deserted island
Population Aiming for one million inhabitants Crusoe’s solitary existence, later joined by Friday
Adaptation Developing technology for Martian living Learning to survive with limited resources
Musk’s vision encapsulates the spirit of exploration and the human instinct to survive and adapt, much like Crusoe’s journey.
Wikipedia codastory.com
Elon Musk plans to build a self-sustaining city on Mars that could eventually house one million people, aiming to make humanity a multi-planetary species. This city would require significant cargo deliveries, estimated at around one million tons, to ensure all necessary resources for survival and sustainability are available.
Inverse CNBC
In Robinson Crusoe, the survival theme is tied to European ideas of controlling nature: Crusoe’s shipwreck forces him to rely on his own skills to endure, and over time he “masters” the island. This self-reliant “dominion over nature” can be read as a small-scale version of colonial conquest, where an outsider imposes order and extracts resources from an unfamiliar land.
uniwriter.ai Studocu
Elon Musk aims to make the vision of Star Trek a reality through SpaceX by establishing human settlements on Mars and promoting interstellar travel. He believes that achieving this will help humanity become a multiplanetary species and explore beyond our solar system.
Wikipedia Yahoo
Elon Musk’s Vision for Mars and Star Trek
Making Star Trek a Reality
Elon Musk has expressed a desire to transform the imaginative concepts of Star Trek into reality through his company, SpaceX. He envisions a future where humanity can travel to other planets and even beyond our solar system. Musk’s ultimate goal is to establish human settlements on Mars and promote interstellar travel, which he believes is essential for the survival of humanity.
Goals of SpaceX
Musk’s ambitions include:
Colonizing Mars: Establishing a self-sustaining human settlement on Mars.
Interstellar Travel: Developing technology that allows for travel to other star systems.
Exploring Alien Life: Seeking out potential extraterrestrial civilizations.
The Importance of Becoming Multiplanetary
Musk argues that becoming a multiplanetary species is crucial for humanity’s long-term survival. He believes that colonizing Mars will not only extend human civilization but also provide a backup for humanity in case of catastrophic events on Earth.
Summary of Musk’s Vision
Aspect Description
Inspiration Star Trek and its vision of space exploration
Primary Goal Establish human settlements on Mars
Long-term Vision Enable interstellar travel and exploration of alien life
Philosophy Ensure humanity’s survival by becoming multiplanetary
Musk’s vision reflects a blend of science fiction aspirations and practical goals, aiming to turn what was once considered fantasy into a tangible future for humanity.
Wikipedia Yahoo
Elon Musk’s vision for Mars parallels themes in Star Wars, particularly the idea of creating a new home for humanity in the face of existential threats. Musk sees Mars as a refuge for human civilization, similar to how characters in Star Wars seek new worlds to escape danger and ensure survival.
Indiatimes
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and that is the mindset that rules us. so if you think these people have some sort of brake, you are only kidding yourself. its full steam ahead, period.
the north koreans know. the north vietnamese drove us out of south east asias continent.
out of south vietnam, out of cambodia, out of Laos.
Purple Library Guy
“enforceable guarantees, simultaneous implementation and mechanisms preventing one party from receiving concessions before abandoning its own obligations…”
You know, aside from being all pugnacious and ignoring reality, I find myself wondering if the Trump administration has enough competence available to it to even set up something like this. They just seem to have got rid of all the people capable of doing stuff like the nitty gritty of putting together the clauses in a treaty, sweating the details, making the parts fit together, any of the actual work that results in something implementable.
GrimJim
“You know, aside from being all pugnacious and ignoring reality, I find myself wondering if the Trump administration has enough competence available to it to even set up something like this. They just seem to have got rid of all the people capable of doing stuff like the nitty gritty of putting together the clauses in a treaty, sweating the details, making the parts fit together, any of the actual work that results in something implementable.” — Purple
Nope.
No competence left whatsoever.
They have purged or sidelined any of the “Deep State” bureaucrats (i.e., career bureaucrats) in favor of their own apparatchiks, who, if even remotely competent, are merely Mitreisende (“Bootlickers,” Nazi-style), who happily push the Great Leader’s whims (or the 2025 Agenda) regardless of whether it works or not.
And they will lick his boots and kiss his ass all the way down into the depths of Hell, taking the rest of us with them.
Nat Wilson Turner
This war has been so disastrously mismanaged by Trump et al that I keep thinking there is some agenda that I’m missing on the part of his Zionist masters —mass depopulation? Destroying the us empire? A banking showdown between the Silicon Valley bros vs the old line London/NY axis vs the Chinese banks? Wtf?
Mark Level
Yeah, Ian, from your keyboard to God’s (or dog’s) ears.
Just watching an Alex Christoforou and the Duran share, US “outraged” it’s so unfair that China and Russia helped Iran with targeting the base where most US troops sitting ducks in Jordan, at least 2 US troops dead (their job, and I’m sure this is an undercount) and many more injured. Other sites, Nima & Jacques Baud note that Saudis won’t take US bases, and many more. Bahrain will be extinct soon unless US stops its futile War. Will anyone in the Pentagon take the Weapons away from the Donald while you report US Missile (and other) Ordnance in a steep decline? Everybody knows, Nope. No brake, no reverse gear, can’t learn anything, it’s still 2003 & we are “the unchallenged Hegemon.” Don’t sample your own Hopium supply that’s a guarantee for psychosis and breakdown.
Wind sowed, Whirlwind being reaped. US provided Targeting for Ukraine for years, now the payback is here . . . Other news from Imperial Decline, per Christoforou, Democrats responding to their base in Congress are demanding that the “tribute” to the late Lady Lindsey Graham of the 25th (or so) set of “Bone Crushing Sanctions” against Russia need to be blocked, Oil bills coming due soon, and this would weaken the dollar’s value, and create massive Inflation in other areas not yet impacted . . . Some sense even the Trumpies see the Cliff Edge just steps ahead, no idea if they will stop or not.
Russia also warned Japan, since it’s providing drones to the drowning Ukraine Junta that if it doesn’t stop, they will pay a price, since Ukraine as we all (except the recently absent LAS) know, during 4 years, Ukraine only had one success against Russia, when the SMO started, Russia only had 125K troops deployed against 200K troops that Nato had built up there, so initial progress slow. Ukraine does not do force contra force Military attacks, it focuses entirely on . . . Terrorism against civilians and civilian infrastructure. Imagining this will break the morale and determination of the Russians, the effect precisely the opposite. Japan the one power to defeat Russia, c. 1905, their victory lasted some years, fewer than 20 as best as I recall.
Talk of coups, either against Zelensky of the Golden Toilets and Israeli and Tuscan Villas, also General Syrsky possibly to be the fall-guy. Kind of a Hitler “Final days in the Bunker” vibe . . .
I thank spud for the usual cogent thoughts and share, I agree that at one time Putin et al saw themselves as wanna-be Davos Elites, I think they are for the most part well beyond this by now. The only “Winning” seen is in Ghina, Russia, Iran, to a lesser extent the lands of Ansar al-Allah, the real Yemenis, not the UN recognized “government” run out of a Hotel Room in the small part of the country not in “Houthi” possession.
As to your take on Elon and the Robinson Crusoe nostalgia, I too as a young teenager, 12-14 at most really liked that story. Later on realized how sick it is. A white man stranded and forced entirely onto “his own” resources and ingenuity, alone on a “Jungle” Island, recruits a brown-skilled Native to be his slave, a real gift to the “darky.” A perfect fantasy bubble of creating a Hierarchical “Civilization” for emotionally retarded individuals which the likes of Apartheid Clyde (Elon’s nickname among the workers at his Tesla plant south of San Francisco and the bay) long for.
Trump doing a lot of “Losing, Bigly” lately. A couple Spanish players who won the World Cup deliberately shook the FIFA officials’ hands, snubbed Trump and walked right past him. Infantino (what a great name for a puffed-up Bully, literally the Little Brat, or alternately Pipsqueak) had to literally pull Trump off the Dais, and the Spanish team made sure to share a photo Sans the fat Orange Orangutan.
Back to spud, yes, the Vietnamese heralded the Empire’s degeneration into Nixon’s biggest paranoid fantasy, “a pitiful, helpless giant,” now it’s pitiful, not wholly helpless, but no longer a Giant in any case, except a Giant Stinking Turd.
To Purple Library Guy, agreed. These people cannot run things, it’s obvious. They can run things into the ground, that’s about it!! Empire circling the drain . . . Will anyone dance in its Ruins? I wouldn’t bet on it, Climate Change Acceleration may make that celebration short-lived. Perhaps the Greenlanders, Icelanders and Siberians and Inuit will ride it out? Time will tell.
“Western Civilization” as Gandhi noted with sarc, “a good idea” but ended badly.
mago
A case of hubris chasing phantoms with real world consequences.
Everybody’s talking nobody knows
Conflagrations expectations the world ‘s on fire and foxes rule the coop, although that’s giving more credit to the ruling dunderheads than they deserve.
Foxes are wily and wise while the idiots in charge couldn’t find their dicks in the dark. And that’s the only card they’re holding.
Their dicks I mean.
Duck me blind Jesus.
Carborundum
Overall, the weight of the Iranian response doesn’t seem very high. The US looks to be hitting somewhere around 80 – 100 aimpoints per day. I haven’t seen any credible counts of the number of aimpoints the Iranians have hit, but the scale of the attacks – a couple of ballistic missiles combined with a handful of Shaheds at the high end – seems pretty modest. I’ve seen no reporting indicating serious attempts at saturation attacks.
I do find myself wondering whether the American concept of operations has changed – we’re seeing surging of a number of significant platforms from Europe and CONUS, including tankers, additional F-35s and Wild Weasels. I know that some of these are replacements for aircraft that were rotated back for repair and maintenance, but I strongly suspect that we’re looking at material net gains in deployed air power. If I had to bet, it would be on the US seeking to force protected traffic through the straits, primarily by hitting Iranian detection and command and control resources.
Oakchair
However, the MOU’s failure strengthens those in the government who thought it was a waste of time.
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A portion of the dithering in Iran and Russia can be explained by this internal power struggle. For whatever reasons these nations are concerned about manufacturing consent for war not just amongst the people but in each faction of the ruling class. Western governments don’t give a shit about public opinion. Russia and Iran do.
Maybe Russia’s refusal to lay waste to Ukraine is because Putin and company are captured by the west. Even if that is the case the sociological result has been a domestic population that grows more militant by the day while the opposite occurs in the West.
If Iran’s Supreme leader had chosen to over ride the other factions his position would have been correct. The risk of doing that though was increased divisions and reduced solidarity. Likewise, because he did not override the other factions they now have to accept he was correct. If he had overrode them they could still sit and pretend he was wrong.
@Spud
As incompetent as the Western ruling class appears –how much of this incompetence is theater– we have to give them an A+ for propaganda.
@Nat Wilson Turner
I have similar feelings. The idea that the ruling class which controls the media, internet, banks, science, Hollywood etc is incompetent doesn’t hold water.
This is a ruling class that has shown it is capable of conspiring to turn pagers into bombs, orchestrating world wide color revolutions, rigging elections, creating controlled opposition several layers deep, and creating a pandemic. That is competence at the highest level.
The belief that they are bumbling idiots comes from the same source that portrayed George W. Bush as a common man. A cowboy working the ranch during the day and reading the bible at night.
different clue
Why would the Zionist masters want mass depopulation? Where would they want it?Why would Silicon techbros want a world of desperate long-term oil and natgas shortages when they are ramping up data centers which run on natgas ( and maybe oil if the natgas runs out)? How would traditional mainline banks benefit from a disordered world with less money to be made and fewer confident borrowers borrowing less?
Why does there have to be an agenda at all? At least on Trump’s part? And what has Trump ever managed well, except his own swindling and thieving? He’s managed the Reflecting Pool and the Grand Ballroom as badly as he has managed the Iran War, only the Iran War can get even worse because it will go on longer for higher stakes.
If one wants to consider agendas, why not consider the combination 2025 agenda and the Christianazian agenda . . . . to break government enough to make it unrepairable, and to break society enough that the Christianazians can take over the wreckage and institute their new Gilead Bible Republic of Christianazi Satanofascistan? That’s the Occam’s Razor answer, I would think.
Trump’s own innermost drive ( not well thought out enough to be an agenda) is to destroy America to get revenge on America for not worshiping and loving Trump as much as he feels he deserves. That’s really all the agenda Trump himself needs.
Maybe Lambert Strether was exactly right when he said ” this is the world’s stupidest timeline”.
The reason “Congress” can’t impeach and reMOVE Trump is because the Republicanfederates are unanimously in support of keeping Trump in office till the bitter end. ( And meanswhile, within the White House itself, who is Trump’s Mrs. Wilson? Who is Trump’s Colonel House).
And the reason the Democrats IN Congress won’t even try to impeach, however impossible the Republicanfederates would make removal to achieve, is because the Democrats are miserable little subhuman civility cucks. Impeachment wouldn’t be nice. ” What would Mister Rogers think?” Democrats are the Neville Chamberlin of the current drama. They are the present-day reincarnation of the worms that Hitler saw at Munich.