From Dropsite:

Paragraph 1: (end military ops including in Lebanon: this is the one that may blow it up.)

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this M.O.U. declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain [from] the threat or use of force against each other and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.

Paragraph 2:

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

Paragraph 3: (This ain’t final, more to negotiate.)

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.

Paragraph 4: (Immediate end of US blockade, Iran has 30 days. US to remove forces.)

Immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of prewar traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

Paragraph 5: (no charge for passage thru the strait. At least for 60 days, I suspect Iran/Oman will try and have charges after that.)

Upon the signing of this M.O.U., the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

Paragraph 6: (US pays 300 billion in restitution. This is why Iran agreed to no fees for passage, at least for now.)

The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least U.S.D. 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

Paragraph 7: (End of sanctions.)

The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, I.A.E.A. Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

Paragraph 8: (No nukes for Iran. Downblending in Iran under IAEA supervision.)

The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled, enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in Paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the I.A.E.A. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on the statutory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned, and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiation in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

Paragraph 9: (No new sanctions, no new nuclear program.)

Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

Paragraph 10: (Again, end of sanctions: this time for oil products.)

The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., and until the termination of sanctions, U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

Paragraph 11: (Release of all frozen funds.)

The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this M.O.U. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

Paragraph 12:

The United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this M.O.U. and the future compliance of the final deal.

Paragraph 13: (Negotiation not over yet.)

After signing this M.O.U. and subject to the beginning of the implementation of Paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this M.O.U., and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

Paragraph 14:

The final deal will be endorsed by a binding U.N.S.C. resolution.

Commentary:

This is a decisive victory for Iran and a loss for Israel and America, though I’d argue that the US ending sanctions and military efforts in the Middle East is good for America. Still, there’s no question that this is the sort of deal that gets signed when one side (Iran) won and the other side (Israel and the US) lost.

I mean — 300 billion in reparations. The US end their blockade first. The US says it’ll get move forces out of the region. The US ends pretty much all sanctions and gives Iran back their money.

Massive win for Iran. Iran is now a great power in the region, and no one can deny it.

The obvious problem here is Israel. If Iran is serious about an end to violence in Lebanon, then this will wind up as a dead letter unless the US tightens Israel’s leash (which it can do, Israel is entirely dependent on US aid). Alternative the US could simply shrug, and make the deal only between them and Iran, and say “if Israel wants to keep fighting, it’s on its own.)

The question here is the power of the domestic lobby, and whether or not Israel has enough blackmail on Trump. (Signing this deal at all makes it look like the answer to , which I thought was “absolutely” may well be “nope, not enough.” We’ll see.)

The US is no longer a superpower. The world no longer has any superpowers. It’s still a great power with worldwide reach, but the days where it was the world’s “super cop” are over. It can still push around weak nations, but not strong regional powers. Took a little less than 30 years from the fall of the USSR for American elites to screw up a completely dominant position.

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