Well, the “ceasefire” sucked while it lasted, but the war will suck more. Multiple US attacks on Iran, and Iranian retaliation against US bases. America hit water supply in some minor Iranian cities as well. We’ll see if it’s a brief spam or a full on resumption of war.

I suppose this was inevitable. Trump isn’t feeling enough pain, because Americans aren’t transmitting it to him yet. There’s been a lot of work on keeping gas prices low, at the cost of actual shortages starting in about a month to two months, and Trump won’t sign any deal Iran will accept, nor will he reign in Israel in Lebanon, which Iran apparently does actually see as a bottom line demand.

This is you going to hurt most of readers if it continues. A LOT. The Iranians have stated they’ll hit oil harder this time, and the world is already on the brink. The economic tsunamin coming will be unlike anything seen since the oil shocks, without the ability to simply “pay up” since the actual infrastructure will take years to rebuild.

This is shit-crazy. Absolute disconnect between elite interests (where they just raise prices) and the interests of 90% of the world’s population. We are talking famines in many countries, people going hungry even in the first world, lots of basic goods in short supply (for example most pills use hydrocrarbons and then there are plastic shortages, chip shortages, etc, etc…)

The bottom line remains that the US can’t actually beat Iran, since it can’t take out their missiles. So this is just a question of who can take the pain longer and whose military supplies will last longer, and my money is still that the US and Israel run out of interceptors before Iran runs out of missiles.

We’ll see if Iran stops playing around. I’d personally send some ranging missiles near the Israeli desalination plants, then suggest that as an indication of good faith half the Iranian money seized by the US be sent within 48 hours. If not, take out a plant. Ask again, this time 55%.

Iran needs to indicate that it can actually destroy Israel (which it can) and that it’s willing to do so because it seems like Israel is making all the actual decisions.

We’ll see how this plays out. Meanwhile, if you can, stock up on basic staples. You’ll be grateful you did.

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