Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: March 2026

AI & New Social Media Rules Are Strangling Independent Sites

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On March 4, 2026

26 Comments

This table is pretty typical:

Back in 2017 Google changed their algo to prioritize “reliable” sites: aka. mainstream sources like Wikipedia. The blogosphere, what was left of it got hit hard. Now everyone’s getting hit. AI scrapes whatever someone writes and presents the information without referring traffic to whoever created the actual information.

This has been a long trend. Google and Facebook from about 2004 on slowly strangled everyone, taking almost all the value for themselves and destroying the ad-networks which existed before them. The money dried up, the audiences dwindled and sites went under, including some very large ones. Places like mine survived only because they had enough legacy goodwill, but I certainly saw massive decreases in referral traffic, especially from 2017 on.

The Web which existed has been replaced by a bunch of walled gardens, all offering the same takes. Once the Web was amazing, full of weirdness, beauty and opinion diversity. Those days are gone, perhaps never to be seen again.

This is part of an endless drive in the West towards creating oligopolies with massive profit rates. “I’ll just take 80% of the value since people can’t find you without me.”

The end result is less and less real interesting content because it pays less and less, and even people who don’t care about that can’t get an audience.

If you decide to join the crowd and post on X, instagram, Facebook, Youtube or whatever, your account can be removed at any time, and there’s no recourse. Usually you can’t even find a human to to talk to, 99% of censorship and appeals are entirely automated.

All this before the various “real ID” stuff being justified by “protecting the children” and the buy-up of both old and new media by Zionist billionaires. It’s becoming much harder to find any non oligarch approved content on the web.

It’s sad, because the web used to be a marvelous place full of the oddest most interesting people. Now it’s just a mass surveillance and value extraction machine for half a dozen billionaires.

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Khamenei Is Responsible For Every Single Iranian Death

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On March 3, 2026

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There’s a lot to admire about Khameini. He was personally brave (fought in the Iran/Iraq war on the front lines), he was well educated, and within the limits of his religious beliefs quite humane. He was entirely opposed to nuclear weapons.

And that last bit was his greatest failure. North Korea is fine. No North Koreans are dead because of American attacks.

Iran could have had nuclear weapons any time in the last twenty years, at least. Iran was attacked, twice, because it didn’t have nukes, not because it did.

The lesson of Israeli and American actions makes it clear that every nation in the world needs nukes. Every single one.

This is what the NPT regime and the taboo against using nukes was meant to make unnecessary. But every time. Every time I talk about the possibility of Iran winning the war someone says “well then Israel or America will nuke them.”

If this is true, it means that Iran needs and needed nukes and so does everyone else.

If nukes aren’t “off the table” for pre-emptive use, everyone needs to have them.

This is what America has wrought.

(Secondary note: as a Canadian it is in my self interest for the US to take the largest losses possible. Every hit America takes makes me and my country safer. There is only one country in the world which has threatened to annex Canada, after all, and unfortunately, no one paid attention to me over the last 30 years when I said the US wasn’t trustworthy and we needed a deterrent.)

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There Is Stupid and Then There Is Superhuman Stupid

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On March 3, 2026

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~by Sean Paul Kelley

How about we review Cipollla’s Five Rules of Human Stupidity? 

One: Everyone always and inevitably underestimates the number of stupid people in circulation.

Two: The probability that a person is stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.

Three: A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or group of people when he or she does not benefit and may even suffer losses.

Four: Non-stupid people always underestimate the destructive power of stupid individuals.

Five: A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person.

Rumors persist on Wall Street for a second day, natch, for a day and a bit cause it’s early yet. But the rumors are several institutional investors, read hedge funds or investment banks like Morgan or Goldman, are desperate to unload large naked shorts on oil futures.

WTI has risen from $58 to $77 in less than 30 days. Brent has spiked in a similar fashion. Urals Crude is trading between $57-$65, higher than just a few weeks ago when it traded between $45-$50.

Today is the day I cease underestimating just how stupid, stupid can get. It’s like “killing the chicken to scare the monkeys” levels of stupid have taken over. 

 

The Doom Spiral Of Executive Decision Making

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On March 3, 2026

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~by Sean Paul Kelley

A tweet I encountered last night and obsessed over as I followed its logic all the way to the bottom terrified me in its potential implications. The poster links to another poster highlighting a few Euro press releases lambasting Iran for such a disproportionate response to our unprovoked attack and ends with this question:

“I want to know what they think is a “proportionate” response when invaders assassinate your head of state and civilian leaders in an explicit campaign to destroy your government?”

So, follow my logic here. I replied to their posts with the following:

“This is exactly what terrifies me about Operation Epstein Fury: Trump cannot abide defeat in any way. It’s seen as a personal rebuke to his idand his constant self-aggrandizement. Moreover, the more the US is percieved to lose–the US embodied by Trump’s id—and what it loses in reality, is blamed on Iran and its evil.

No introspection from the Empire of Chaos.

No acknowledgement that we started this war.

As American losses mount and Trump’s prestige fades, the doom spiral of executive decision making begins.

As my father has always said, “there is nothing more dangerous than a coward,” which is what Trump is.

And a coward in a doom spiral with his finger on the button terrifies me to the core.

As it should terrify us all.”

Yup, I’m talking about Trump’s id. He’s a walking manifestation of the human id. He’s the epitome of Freud’s id.

The possibility of him driving humanity off a cliff is NON-ZERO. Slight, yes, but what could a man such as he do in a state of desperation?

Short Take on Iran, Russia and the Ukraine: Cui Bono?

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On March 3, 2026

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~by Sean Paul Kelley

Cui bono? (From the Latin, who stands to gain?) Who benefits from our war on Iran, internationally speaking? And who loses?

First, the Ukraine loses bad the longer the attack on Iran continues, as all the oxygen is sucked into a vortext surrounding the Persian Gulf. All the weapon systems the Ukraine desperately needs are being consumed rapidly over the skies of Iran and the Gulf States. This will undoubtedly hasten the Ukrainian Armed Forces collapse as a meaningful battlefield foe. Score one for Russia.

Second, energy prices will rise, and if the Straits of Hormuz get shut the Europeans will have to re-evaluate their energy supplies vis-a-vis Russia. Score two for Russia. Also, score one for Texas oilmen, who have watched WTI rise from $58 a barrel a month ago to $73.78. Royalty checks be getting phat!

Third, diplomatic pressure will decrease on Pootie-poot and Lavrov due to European energy desperation and all the diplo-oxygen being sucked out of the UN and other multi-lateral forumns, as if a thermobaric bomb went off. This widens Putin’s and Lavrov’s room to manuever even more. It also increases the chance Russia delivers a devastating denouement to the ‘Rules Based Order’ with an unmistakable battlefield victory. As my teachers said about school-yard fights when I was growing up (I went to an all boys school most of my life): you get your ass whooped, you probably deserved it. Score three for Russia.

Fourth, with the US murder/assassination of Iran’s Surpreme leader the precedent has been set, nay, locked the fuck in, for Russia to lob an Oreshnik or two Zelensky’s way and damn the consequences. The US could hardly protest. Not with a straight face. Score four for the Russkis.

Not to beat a frog at the bottom of a well, as the Chinese proverb goes, but the Ukraine is the biggest loser thus far and Russia the biggest winner as of today. The Euros are losing as well, but seem determined to snatch fantasy from the maw of reality. Israel is also on the losing end. Have you seen some of the explosions in Tel Aviv? This Iranian strike is positively surreal. Looks like that Israeli Iron Dome has turned into an Iranian Golden Shower.

Then again, if Bibi pops off a nuke or two, all bets are off.

Commentary On The Iran War, March 2, 2026

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On March 2, 2026

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If you didn’t read my two previous piece, the second is about the math of missiles/drones vs. Interceptors. (Spoiler: Iran, if it keeps going, will run the US/Israel and Gulf States out of interceptors long before it runs out of missiles and drones.) The first was a general overview from day one.

I’m going to hit a bunch of different points in this post. First, Trump and Hegseth have said they are considering a ground invasion. This is beyond stupid. First, where will they stage the troops? There’s nowhere near that Iran can’t hit.

Second, have they looked at a topographical map of Iran?

Notice the mountains? Imagine trying to invade that.

The sheer stupid is beyond comprehension by anyone with a room temperature IQ. There is a hangover of people thinking this is 1991 and Iran is Iraq. Iran has better missiles than the US does. It’s larger than Iraq was, it has more people, it has allies. (China appears to be sharing real time satellite intelligence with Iran and has a land route which lets it ship in whatever Iran needs to build more missiles and drones.)

Americans seem to think they still have all the advantages they had in 1991: a military which is more advanced than anyone else’s (no), a much larger military than now, NATO allies who still have their Cold War sized armies, an enemy who will sit still for 6 months while they build up forces, etc… America then and America now are not the same, America is FAR weaker than it was and its allies are virtually disarmed. Only France is at all credible, and even they have a very small military.

A good summary of this is provided by Lee Slusher, writing before the war.

The Gulf States and Saudi Arabia are all being hit hard and the US is not protecting them. The UAE claims a 100% shootdown rate and Qatar over 80%. I believe neither, but even if true, irrelevant, because they will soon run out of interceptor missiles.

BREAKING: The UAE is projected to exhaust its interceptor missile stock within one week at the current rate of fire, and Qatar within four days; both are urgently seeking additional military support from the United States – Bloomberg

(Spoiler: no additional interceptors will be arriving. If there are any extra, they go to Israel.)

A Saudi analyst sums up what I suspect all of them are thinking:

America has abandoned us, and focused its defense systems on protecting Israel, leaving the Gulf states that host its military bases at the mercy of Iranian missiles and drones

Lie down with the devil, get up buggered, as the saying goes.

What the Gulf States, especially, are recognizing is that US bases don’t protect them, they make them a target and that the US doesn’t actually care about them and won’t bother to defend them. They’ve gone from satrapies under US protection (which they were, remember that Gulf 1 was to save Kuwait) to expendable meat shields for the Empire. They have to be thinking they’d be better off without the bases.

There have been hits on energy infrastructure. Iran says they didn’t do it, America says they did. My feeling is that Iran is telling the truth, not because I believe they wouldn’t lie, but because attacking oil infrastructure means their infrastructure becomes a target as well and that’s not in their self-interest. I suspect this is a false flag attack to try and get Saudi Arabia, in particular, to join fully in the war.

Germany, France and Britain have said that they will help America militarily. I think the best response to this is Alemanno’s:

The most baffling thing about Europe’s support for regime change in Iran is that it contradicts its own interests. American war leads to: – higher energy price – influx of refugees – ensuing far-right surge – further damage rule-based order

Note also that Germany has almost no interceptors left (they went to Ukraine) and are within range of Iranian missiles. I doubt Iran will attack them, but they can. Germany might want to think hard about that.

Many people are saying this is 12 dimensional chess. The idea is to hurt China’s oil imports. Maybe (no), but it won’t matter much in the middle term:

Around 90% of Iran’s crude exports go to China, but the country is well prepared for disruption. Small independent refineries hold ample near-term supply, while Iranian oil already in transit could cover roughly five months of demand. China has also built large reserves—about 200 days of import cover—helped by discounted crude from Iran and Russia. Bottom line: even if Iranian flows are disrupted, the impact on China is likely manageable.

This also doesn’t make sense because the war with Iran, if goes on even another few days, means war with China is impossible. The interceptor stockpiles will take years to replenish, and China has way more missiles and drones (and the ability to manufacture them at scale) than Iran. By the time they are replenished, China will be so much stronger than the US that even American supremacists will not be able to pretend there is the least chance America could win.

The war, in the end, comes down to math. The US/Israel and whatever pathetic forces European allies commit are in a race: they have to take out launchers and missile suppliers faster than Iran depletes interceptor stocks. My bet is they lose that race, but that’s the race and if you think it comes down to anything else, you are mistaken, leaving aside the possibility of using nukes.

If the US loses this war it is America’s last great hurrah. Everyone will move away from them: they can’t defend their allies, they can’t be trusted to negotiate or keep agreements, and their military will be defenseless for years against the signature weapons of modern warfare: drones and missiles.

Empires die ugly. But America’s empire is dying.

And finally, Iran is in the right here, morally. We all know it.

Update:

Update 2: I forgot to factor in that hits on US airbases reduce the US ability to sortie planes. The number of US attacks on Iran is also dropping.

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​​​​​​​Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – March 01, 2026

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On March 1, 2026

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​​​​​​​Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – March 01, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

 

Iran Calls Trump’s Bluff as Deep State Rebels Over War

[Simplicius, via Naked Capitalism 02-27-2025]

…Trump’s initiative is collapsing before his sallow eyes amidst internal revolts as staff leak all kinds of damaging bulletins to the press. The latest from the Pentagon stovepipe is that the US only has munitions for days of a sustained high-intensity conflict with Iran, a fact we’ve known all along….

It’s clear an internal revolt is taking place—from the potential sabotaging of the carrier by its crews, to yesterday’s sudden firing of the Director of the Joint Staff, Vice Admiral Fred Kacher….

Executive Director of the Ron Paul Institute Daniel McAdams writes:

“My guess – and it is based on limited but not extensive contact with Navy warfighters – is that he holds the position that a war on Iran would be a disaster. I don’t want to be too specific, but I believe from what I know that this view is widely held among particularly Naval personnel in the Pentagon.

“It’s becoming more and more clear that many inside the Pentagon believe the US will face generational disaster if it over-commits to a large-scale conflict with Iran. The going theory cited by experts, which I agree with, is that Trump has boxed himself in by amassing a huge armada that was meant to intimidate Iran into surrender. Now that Iran has called his bluff, Trump is faced with the humiliating choices of either TACO-ing out or allowing the US military machine to be exposed in a disastrous war of attrition….

“Trump is one wrong move away from imploding his administration, and his legacy along with it. An Iran war would likely also send oil prices skyrocketing, handing Russia a massive boon that would nullify virtually every hostile economic action against its energy sector of the past year, and ensuring another huge boost to the Russian SMO efforts.

“Trump is left with few good options: we can only assume he will have to take a major compromise on Iran while gussying it up in his now-infamous style into some kind of “victory”. More than likely, he’ll lie by twisting the result of the “deal” into something it actually isn’t by announcing major restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment which will be gross exaggerations of the contractual reality; this has been the precedent that has defined Trump’s elliptical style during his second term.”

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025 [mediaite.com]

‘Batshit Authoritarianism’: Trump Allies Drafting Order to Give Him ‘Extraordinary Power Over Voting’

Brad Reed, February 26, 2026 [CommonDreams]

A group of right-wing activists is crafting an executive order that would let President Donald Trump unilaterally ban mail-in ballots and voting machines ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

The Washington Post reported on Thursday that the order being drafted by Trump allies would give him “extraordinary power over voting,” even though the US Constitution explicitly gives individual states the powers to run their own elections.

An advocate for the order, Florida attorney Peter Ticktin, acknowledged in an interview with the Post that the Constitution does not give the president any role in shaping elections, but he said Trump needed to act to prevent China from supposedly interfering with American elections.

“Under the Constitution, it’s the legislatures and states that really control how a state conducts its elections, and the president doesn’t have any power to do that,” Ticktin said. “But here we have a situation where the president is aware that there are foreign interests that are interfering in our election processes. That causes a national emergency where the president has to be able to deal with it.”

The activists drafting the emergency order said that they are working in coordination with the White House….

Trump Says He’s ‘Entitled’ to Illegal Third Term as Allies Draft Voter Suppression Decree

On Friday, Democracy Docket published an April 2025 version of the draft order provided by a Trump ally, which the outlet described as “riddled with errors.”

Trump Officials Attended a Summit of Election Deniers Who Want the President to Take Over the Midterms

Doug Bock Clark, February 28, 2026 [propublica.org]

…According to videos, photos and social media posts reviewed by ProPublica, the meeting’s participants included Kurt Olsen, a White House lawyer charged with reinvestigating the 2020 election, and Heather Honey, the Department of Homeland Security official in charge of election integrity. The event was convened by Michael Flynn, Trump’s former national security adviser, and attended by Cleta Mitchell, who directs the Election Integrity Network, a group that has spread false claims about election fraud and noncitizen voting. …

ICE Whistleblower Confirms What We Already Knew This Week in Democracy, Feb 27,

While testifying before Congress, an ICE whistleblower sounded the alarm on the agency’s “deficient, defective, and broken” training program for new deportation officers.

Ryan Schwank, who previously worked as an ICE lawyer in the department’s training academy, noted the standard 584-hour training program had been cut by 240 hours, and he received “secretive orders” to teach new recruits “to violate the Constitution by entering homes without a judicial warrant.”

….Later, as part of his new role combating the so-called “war on fraud,” Vice President JD Vance announced that the Trump administration will withhold $259 million in Medicaid payments for Minnesota – another move driven by anti-Somali racism.

Cuban man’s death at El Paso tent camp was result of “spontaneous use of force,” ICE says 

[Texas Tribune, via Naked Capitalism 02-25-2025]

Witness who saw friend fatally shot by immigration agent in Texas last year dies in car accident 

[AP, via Naked Capitalism 02-25-2025]

High school students protesting ICE remain jailed days after police assault in Pennsylvania 

[WSWS, via Naked Capitalism 02-25-2025]

Monopoly Round-Up: Trump Loses on Tariffs, Has His ‘Withdrawal from Afghanistan’ Moment

Matt Stoller

Trump’s DHS kills again–this time a US citizen and a blind immigrant

Dean Obeidallah, Feb 26, 2026

There are two reasons why Trump’s Department of Homeland (DHS) agents—be they ICE or Customs Border Patrol (CBP)—so easily kill people. First, they have been told by Donald Trump, JD Vance, Stephen Miller and others in the Trump regime that they are immune from criminal prosecution. And second, Trump, Vance, Miller and others have dehumanized immigrants—and even US citizens who oppose them—to the dangerous point that they don’t view them as human beings….

The most recent horrific case involves the death of Shah Alam, a 56-year-old Rohingya refugee in Buffalo, New York. Alam–who has only been in the United States since 2024—doesn’t speak English, is blind and per his family can’t use a cellphone nor does he know his family’s phone number….

CBP knew that Alam didn’t speak English, they knew he was blind, they even knew he had a lawyer given they just picked him up from prison. Add to that the CBP’s statement admits they knew where Alam lived, noting they dropped him at “a location near his last known address.” (A random coffee shop miles from his house,)

Well then why not drop him at his actual last address?! Or why not simply make a phone call to his family or lawyer!? As Alam’s son told the press, “Nobody told me or my family or attorney where my dad was dropped off.”

Shortly thereafter the family filed a missing person’s report when their father could not be located. But sadly he was discovered days later dead. The exact circumstances surrounding his death are still unclear….

Bufalo Mayor Sean Ryan noted in a statement, “A vulnerable man − nearly blind and unable to speak English − was left alone on a cold winter night with no known attempt to leave him in a safe, secure location,” He added, “That decision from U.S. Customs and Border Protection was unprofessional and inhumane.”

Journalists Jailed by ICE Are Revealing the Horrors of Incarceration 

[Scheerpost, via Naked Capitalism 02-22-2025]

ICE Took Their Papers—and Won’t Give Them Back 

[Mother Jones, via Naked Capitalism 02-26-2025]

Trump Cheers Lethal Doxxing 

Ken klippenstein [via Naked Capitalism 02-26-2025]

…From the killing of Bin Laden in 2011 to the present, the US (and Israel) have conducted more and more regular decapitation strikes, a method of warfare that is nothing like the many failed attempts to take down Saddam Hussein. Aided by ubiquitous surveillance, tippy-Top Secret techniques, and artificial intelligence, individuals can now be found and tracked in real time….

What Trump celebrated in the State of the Union—and what no one has really named—is this practice that I call lethal doxxing: the acquisition of someone’s most sensitive personal information revealing their up-to-the-moment location, followed by the lethal part. It’s doxxing at nation-state scale, with a kill chain attached….

And as with Internet doxxing, the information age has made this easier than at any point in human history. Maybe that’s why ICE is so paranoid about it, treating doxxing as a life-or-death threat to their officers.

The killing of Mexican cartel leader “El Mencho” is just the latest indication of a quiet shift toward lethal doxxing as a routine instrument of diplomacy, statecraft, warfare, or even just revenge. That shift, scarcely discussed at all in the mainstream, has taken place for reasons that make it likely to outlive the Trump administration….

Trump’s ICE is now holding a political prisoner for one year—and unless we speak up, she won’t be the last!

Dean Obeidallah, Feb 22, 2026

Donald Trump’s ICE is doing exactly what he wants. And now they are holding a political prisoner for nearly a year in an ICE detention camp simply because 33-year-old Leqaa Kordia dared to champion views the Trump regime opposes. This should concern all Americans especially given the recent warning from concentration camp expert Andrea Pitzer—who explained on my SiriusXM show that history tells the Trump regime building massive ICE detention camps will ultimately be used to imprison political prisoners….

That is why the case Leqaa Kordia demands far more attention given it’s a sneak preview of what we can expect from Trump for not just immigrants–but also U.S. citizens. Leqaa is a 33-year-old Palestinian woman with family in Gaza and the United States. Her mother is a US citizen living in Paterson, New Jersey—which is where Leqaa was staying and working as a waitress until she taken by ICE….

Trump’s War on the Constitution

Josh Marshall, February 27, 2026 [Talking Points Memo]

It’s a cliché and more or less true that the Constitution’s “high crimes and misdemeanors” language can mean whatever Congress wants it to mean. That is not only because in this area Congress’ decision-making is certainly un-reviewable. It is because the Constitution’s writers were intentionally expansive in their definition. They were most focused not on statutory crimes but misrule. I wanted to take a moment to note that what we have unfolding in Minnesota is really a definitional impeachable offense.

I say this with no expectation that he will be charged with it, let alone convicted and removed from office, certainly not under Republican rule. But these are precisely the kinds of abuses of power, unconstitutional actions, that are most squarely within the impeachment mechanism’s meaning.

President Trump first undertook what amounts to an invasion of the state, with poorly trained and abusive paramilitaries creating menace, mayhem and death. The aim of this action was to terrorize and dominate the state. It wasn’t about immigration enforcement. Now, having been forced to scale back at least the visibility of their invasion of the state, they are resorting to cutting off budgetary support for social services programs. This money is distributed pursuant to congressional law. The executive branch has no right to impound it based on some vague definition of not being a good “custodian” of the money.

I don’t expect to get much disagreement when I say these are illegitimate actions. I doubt even the administration expects this decision to withstand judicial scrutiny. These are abuses that go far beyond statutes or criminal law. The president is elected to see that the laws are carried out, ensure the national defense and prosperity and provide civilian leadership of the armed forces. He has no right to go to war with states or regions he disagrees with politically, or has a vendetta against, or to try to coerce or punish them into compliance.

The fact that Trump won’t be impeached for this, at least not this year, shouldn’t obscure the fact that he should be, that these are the basic forms of misrule that merit removal from office, that quite apart from the statutory legality of specific actions, the entire class of actions — coercion by violence and theft of funding — is ruled out entirely.

Donald Trump, Jeff Epstein and the Politics of Impunity TPM

Josh Marshall, February 23, 2026 [Talking Points Memo]

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The Simple Math Of the Iran War

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On March 1, 2026

40 Comments

Thaad interceptor missiles have a production of about eight a month. Stockpiles are in the low hundreds. Ground based interceptors.

Patriot missiles had a production of 620 in 2025. Stockpile numbers are unclear, but low thousands is likely. They miss a lot, and usually two to four are shot per interception attempt.

Thirty-nine SM-3 missiles were produced in 2025. Stockpiles are at about 500. These are used by AEGIS naval defenses.

Note that none of these can be manufactured without supplies from China.

Estimates of Iranian missiles are around two to three thousand. Iranian drones? Tens of thousands. They used many up during the last war, but China has helped them rapidly manufacture more.

The math is simple. If Iran keeps firing, and the US/Israel does not take out the launchers and missile stockpiles in large numbers, Iran will run the US and Israel (it has its own variants, but the same supply issues) out of interceptors. At that point Iran hits everything it shoots at.

If Iran just keeps going long enough, it WILL win the war. The main danger is Iran’s leaders accepting a cease-fire too soon. If they are smart and have learned their lesson, they will keep going, and when they have supremacy, they will flatten Israel and all US bases, including taking out Israeli power and their desalanization plants.

If they don’t, the US and Israel will be back in a year to try again.

Iran is in this situation because they repeatedly stood down and did not establish deterrence. They had the theoretical capacity, but refused to use it, making America and Israel think they could just keep attacking Iran and there would be no significant retaliation.

And yes, the US or Israel could use nukes, but if they do, all bets are off, the repercussions would be seismic. (And Iran can make a dirty nuke any time they want, they already have that ability. One dirty nuke hits Israel, a postage stamp sized country, and it is uninhabitable.)

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