Skip to content


2012 October 7
by Ian Welsh

The post on jobs #s has been withdrawn for the moment, since I didn’t notice I was using Current Population Survey #s where I should have used  Employment survey #s.  Ouch. I am officially embarrassed.  At least it was only up for a few minutes, though the internet is forever, as we all know.

Anyway, for those who read it, the numbers are approximately correct, the percentage #s are off, and the current population survey showed 873,000 jobs gained last month as opposed to 114K on the employment survey (this is why I don’t use the CPS. Anyone who believes the economy actually added 873K jobs is delusional.  That doesn’t mean they’re cooked, but they are a statistical artifact.)  I’d recalculate, but it’s 3:36 in the morning and my brain is fried.  Some day soon, probably.  My apologies.

The tl;dr version is this.  114 thousand is not a good jobs report and to regain all jobs in any time frame short of 10 years to a generation, you need steady reports over 200K, and ideally over 300K.  From the employment survey, not the population survey. 😉

Comments are closed.