His private jet “crashed.” I must say it’s a nice change from falling out of a window, though still a standard (those who have reason to believe powerful people want them dead should not fly in private planes.)

There were other people in the plane and they may not have “had it coming” (I don’t know) but Prigozhin was a piece of human garbage whose prison sentence was, for among things, choking awoman so he could rob her.

I won a bet with a friend on this, who thought that Prigozhin couldn’t be taken out without causing a clash with his troops.

This is classic: what Putin did was separate Prigozhin from his loyal troops so he wouldn’t have to fight them all, then take him out. The delay was to let those Wagner members who were still loyal to Prigozhin realize the loss. (The remains of Wagner will now mostly be integrated into the military.)

Prigozhin had to killed or put in prison. Putin could not allow him to be seen to prosper after he launched a coup attempt, however abortive that attempt was. Others might get the idea they could take a run at the king and if they failed, no big deal.

Remember that Prigozhin received no support from the Russian establishment: not one governor or senior official; no military support (hardly surprising after he alienated them by attacking a senior officer and constantly denigrating them.)

Prigozhin was a fool, he thought he was bigger and more popular than he was, and he paid the price.

Putin’s “weakness”, such as it is, comes from the simple fact that he is old and everyone knows nature will force him to leave at some point. He doesn’t have another twenty years at the top, and he has no obvious designated successor, so people are starting to jockey to replace him and for those who aren’t in the running, to pick sides, as you often can’t remain neutral. That said, his polling remains good, the military is loyal enough, and while there are some economic issues, they aren’t (yet, or perhaps ever) such as to cause him concern.

Remember the rebellion trifecta: an elite faction, the enforcer class unwilling to intervene, and a popular faction. Prigozhin tried to neutralize the enforcers by attacking while most of the pointy part of the military was at war, but he didn’t get any of it.

A palace coup remains possible, but at least for now, anything else is very unlikely.

“You come for the king, you best not miss.”


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