Escalating against a more powerful foe is usually a bad idea.
Ukrainians are finding this out now. There’s no denying that Ukraine’s strikes on Russia oil infrastructure, especially refineries have been effective, or that its strikes against Russian shipping had an effectbut that campaign led to Russia changing its strategy as well.
It has basically turned Ukraine into a landlocked country with massive strikes against Ukrainian ports. This is as the harvest needs to be sold.
A systematic attack on gas and diesel distribution in the country, by taking out gas stations, has made logistics within the country extremely difficult. It’s not just that Ukraine is landlocked, it’s that once you get into the country by land, it’s hard to move at all.
This has always been the problem Ukraine faces: Russia is just more powerful. Putin was very restrained for most of the war, not taking out dual use infrastructure, letting power stay on, etc, etc… This is the sort of stuff that the US usually takes out first, as it did in both Iraq wars. Russia didn’t.
But while Putin has been remarkably humane for a wartime leader, there is an implicit quid-pro-quo here: we leave certain things alone and you return the favor. Ukraine, knowing it was slowly losing by accepting that status quo has broken it multiple times and each time Putin’s release of constraints on the Russian military has meant that Ukraine was hurt worse than Russia.
It’s instructive to notice that in the Iranian war the US has actually been fairly restrained compared to its normal operations, for the simple reason that while Iran can’t hit the US homeland, it can hit US allies infrastructure. So Trump’s latest promise to turn off all the lights in Tehran came to nought, as have the past threats, because Iran can turn off the lights and water in the Middle East, and more importantly, smash oil production and refining in ways that would take a decade to repair, even as US petroleum reserves keep dropping.
John Arnold put together a good timeline:
March 23: Postponed announced attacks on Iran’s power grid, citing “very good and productive” negotiations March 26: Extended deadline by another 10 days; negotiations were “going very well.”
April 7: Two week ceasefire to give time to conclude a proposed 10-point plan April 21: Extended ceasefire indefinitely after mediators requested more time May 18: Held off a major strike because “serious negotiations” were underway
June 11: Canceled strikes hours after threatening to hit Iran “very hard,” claiming a negotiating breakthrough
June 17: Signed an interim ceasefire agreement ending hostilities and beginning a 60-day period to negotiate a final agreement
July 27: Paused bombing campaign to give diplomacy another chance
August 1: Canceled planned attack after claiming that Iran had agreed on parameters of a deal
Iran says there’s not only no deal, but they aren’t even talking.
So deterrence has, to some extent, worked in the Middle East, but it hasn’t worked in Ukraine.
Zelensky is now offering Russia an “air campaign” cease fire: they’ll stop hitting Russia’s oil infrastructure and ports in exchange for the same.
Too late is my guess. “Now that this strategy is hurting us more than you, let’s stop” isn’t likely to be all that convincing to Russia.
Ukrainians are resisting conscription massively, the Russian army’s advance is slow, but it continues to advance, and Ukraine’s almost out of interceptors, since they’re going to the Middle East and Israel. A promise to let Ukraine make its own patriot missiles is unlikely to work: if they build them in Ukraine, they can be hit. This isn’t like drone manufacture, you can’t farm it out to thousands of dispersed households: it’s need a real factory, and the Russians will find that factory and hit it. Oh, and Ukraine’s post-war population is likely to be ten million less than the pre-war population, with women massively outnumbering men.
Ukraine needs a comprehensive peace deal. Much like America in the Middle East, this is a war it cannot win and which hurts it more than it hurts Russia. When you can’t win a war, you make concessions and go to peace. Denial of reality is not a war plan, it’s a way of marching to doom. At some point the Ukrainian army will collapse, and the conditions that Russia imposes in an unconditional surrender scenario are a lot worse than those they’ll get, even now, in a negotiated peace.
The same is true in the Middle East. Yes, Iran can’t conquer America, but what happens when diesel and gasoline and fertilizer and plastic and medicine shortages all hit the US mainland? The deal America gets in that situation is worse than the deal it gets if it makes peace now.
When you’ve lost a war, you’ve lost the war. Making your opponent prove it across the board will never lead to a better outcome.
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