Ian Welsh – Page 272 – The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Alright, back in February I warned people to get ready to shelter in place.

Now I’m telling you to be concerned about food price increases and even shortages. As Vinay Gupta points out, the signs of future problems are visible now. We have a ton of food rotting in fields, we have farmers without migrant workers, we have packing plants shutting down and so on. In India we have migrant workers sent home, etc.

In the short run, this might lead to lower prices (if they make it to consumers), but in the long run this may lead to higher food prices, at the most it may lead to shortages in some places. It will lead to hunger among those who cannot afford the price increases.

Some countries will be particularly vulnerable, for example India.

So, stock up if you can. Simple stuff: rice, beans, canned goods, and so on. It’s highly unlikely, unless you have an ongoing issue already, that water will be a problem, so: food and medicine. This isn’t a “right now” issue, this is not for months–just buy a little extra when you go to the supermarket.

If it turns out you don’t need it, having some bags of rice and beans won’t do you any harm. If you do need it…

Actual functioning governments would be prioritizing things like keeping the food supply chain going: subsidize farm worker wages, and arrange protection for them, among other things. Instead, we are printing trillions of dollars and giving them to rich people to burn uselessly.

April 13th US Covid Data

By Ian Welsh

On April 13, 2020

4 Comments

The curve continues to flatten, though the absolute numbers are bad.

A note from our benefactor:

The assertions on the right that deaths are being drastically over-counted are amazing to me–especially the assertions that this is not much more serious than the flu. Refutations with data simply lead to challenges of the data. The irony is that most flu deaths are also attributed to pneumonia or co-morbidity. https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1727839/

The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 12, 2020

By Tony Wikrent

On April 12, 2020

29 Comments

by Tony Wikrent
Economics Action Group, North Carolina Democratic Party Progressive Caucus

Strategic Political Economy

Is Capitalism a Threat to Democracy?

[New Yorker, via Naked Capitalism 4-5-20]

In a sweeping, angry new book, “Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism?” (Norton), the journalist, editor, and Brandeis professor Robert Kuttner… [argues] today’s political impasse is different from that of the nineteen-thirties. It is being caused not by a stalemate between leftist governments and a reactionary business sector but by leftists in government who have reneged on their principles. Since the demise of the Soviet Union, Kuttner contends, America’s Democrats, Britain’s Labour Party, and many of Europe’s social democrats have consistently tacked rightward, relinquishing concern for ordinary workers and embracing the power of markets; they have sided with corporations and investors so many times that, by now, workers no longer feel represented by them. When strongmen arrived promising jobs and a shared sense of purpose, working-class voters were ready for the message.

Economic Armageddon

Key 2008 Financial Crisis Players Are Back for Coronavirus
[Bloomberg, via Naked Capitalism 4-5-20]
The same self-serving rentier parasites who were in charge in 2008-2009 are still in charge – another indication that USA political and economic systems are complete failures. They are unable to replace proven failed leadership with competent leadership. Not surprising that the professional class in the Democratic Party — which declined the opportunity in 2009-2010 to uproot the failed leadership of Wall Street, and is now besieged by a reality of innumerable crisis — responded to the challenge of Bernie Sanders, by desperately retreating to their Biden redoubt.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin led a group of investors who purchased failed subprime mortgage lender IndyMac and ran the bank until its sale in 2015. Mnuchin is now leading President Donald Trump’s economic response to the pandemic.
Tim Geithner, President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 2009. CURRENT POSITION: President, Warburg Pincus
Larry Fink, CEO, BlackRock Inc. in 2008. CURRENT POSITION: CEO, BlackRock Inc.
Tom Montag, Head of Sales & Trading, Merrill Lynch & Co. in 2009. CURRENT POSITION:
Chief Operating Officer, Bank of America Corp.
Rodge Cohen, Chairman, Sullivan & Cromwell LLP in 2008. CURRENT POSITION: Chairman, Sullivan & Cromwell LLP
Alan Schwartz, CEO, Bear Stearns Cos. in 2008. CURRENT POSITION: Co-Chairman, Guggenheim Securities LLC
Gary Parr, Vice Chairman, Lazard Ltd. in 2008. CURRENT POSITION, Senior Managing Director, Apollo Global Management
To which let me add: Joe Biden, vice-president of the United States in 2009. CURRENT POSITION, Democratic nominee for U.S. President

‘Breadlines’ Erupt Across America As Lockdowns Crush America’s “Working Poor”
[ZeroHedge 4-10-20]

April 12th US Covid Data

By Ian Welsh

On April 12, 2020

1 Comment

From our benefactor. Remember again that these numbers will be understated. That said, the curve continues to flatten, good news.

The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

April 11th US Covid Data

By Ian Welsh

On April 11, 2020

19 Comments

The chart has been changed a bit to allow it to fit cleanly. Bars every two days and a stacked graph.

In terms of accuracy, from April 1st to 5th, New York pulled 1,125 dead people out of houses. That is eight times more than normal, so we can assume that 984 are people who wouldn’t have died without the pandemic (which doesn’t mean they all died from Covid-19.)

The official death rate for those five days was 2,223, so the undercount was about 40 percent.

We can assume that many bodies of people who live alone, or couples who died at about the same time (remember that towards the end of Covid-19 you can’t move) remain to be discovered.

In hospitals, deaths are often only being counted as Covid-19 if there was a test confirming it.

I still suspect the number, when population studies come out, will be about double official initial counts.

The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

Open Thread

By Ian Welsh

On April 11, 2020

32 Comments

Please use the comments here for topics unrelated to recent posts; so, stuff unrelated to Covid or the US Democratic primary.

April 10th US Covid Data

By Ian Welsh

On April 10, 2020

25 Comments

Our benefactor writes:

We seem to be settled in for a while. The exponential curve is flattening, but until the headlines stop announcing more cases and deaths every day, the pressure to stay at home will remain. We’re one day past what was predicted to be the peak. Tomorrow, I will change the bar chart to a stacked graph.

Update: The US federal government has reversed itself on stopping paying for testing.

The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

It’s Biden’s World

By Ian Welsh

On April 9, 2020

84 Comments

Biden was one of the key architects of the bankrupty bill, which made it impossible to declare bankruptcy on student loans.

The result of the bankruptcy bill is that millenials and zoomers who went to university and don’t have rich parents can’t own a house and many have decided they can’t afford families. They expect to live in poverty for decades as a result. (Not going to university means you can’t even apply for good jobs.)

Biden pushed hard for three-strikes laws, the drug wars, and so on. He is responsible for completely destroying entire generations of poor black men and gutting inner cities.

Biden has repeatedly tried to cut social security. He didn’t just vote for war with Iraq, he pushed the lie that Iraq had WMD, and worked hard to promote approval for the war.

He actively helped repeal Glass-Steagall, setting up the 2007/8 financial crisis that caused a ten-year long “recession” for ordinary people.

We live in Joe Biden’s world. Joe Biden was there every step of the way, creating a world in which young people live in poverty, poor black (and white) men are in prison, and in which the rich get richer and everyone else scrambles to even keep up.

By any rational consideration, Biden is a bad man. Evil, even.

Let us move briefly to Sanders. Bernie’s key planks were Medicare-for-all and student debt forgiveness, with a large climate change plan.

There are now great cries that Sanders supporters should support and vote for Biden.

People supported Sanders so ferociously because his policies meant they could actually have health care they could use (Medicare-for-all) and might be able to not spend decades in debt, and thus start families and maybe even own a home.

In other words, Sanders policies would make them more likely to NOT DIE and to be able to live a decent life.

Biden’s policies do not do that. Period. So when you see upset Sanders supporters, understand that they’re angry that people who voted Biden don’t seem to care if they die or live in poverty.

Biden, even if Sanders likes him personally (a fact which should have had no effect on his strategy, and is one of Sanders ethical failings), is one of the top fifty or so people in the country responsible for how shitty the US is to so many people. That is Biden’s legacy. He’s a warmonger, and someone who has favored rich people over the middle class and poor all his life, and made sure that the poor and young were hurt–and hurt badly.

Trump may be worse, but this a case of Beelzebub vs. Satan.

The Left is not Democratic. It does not have the same beliefs as Democrats. It does not believe in war. It does not believe young people should be poor. It does not believe in increasing fracking and destroying the climate (which Biden/Obama did–and do). It does not believe that whether you can have health care should depend on how much money you have.

The two are not friends–they’re not even allies, because allies don’t make separate peace.

The entire argument for voting for Biden rather than Trump, if you’re left-wing, is, “We’ll throw you some scraps, and kick you slightly less often.”

I mean, OK, I guess?

But don’t act like it’s some great moral argument, or that the Left and Democrats are friends, or allies, or even exist in the same moral universe.

Democrats like Biden are people who have done literal incalculable harm to both Americans and foreigners throughout their careers. Those who prefer Biden to Sanders are people who want more evil done than good, claiming that it is less evil than Trump would do (which it may well be, especially if you’re American). But they don’t actually want good. They aren’t, on the whole, in favor of doing good. They are, on the whole, in favor of doing evil. (No, no, don’t tell me about Biden’s platform. His record is what matters.)

So, yeah, Bernie losing matters, and Americans will pay the price. Biden is evil, there is no question about that. He is so far from being good that he’s somewhere around the sixth circle of hell. The argument is, yet again, simply about voting for the lesser evil.

But a majority of Democrats did want the evil guy rather than the good guy, and that’s what they have.

So be it.

The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.