Open Thread

The China-US meeting in Switzerland is NOT a trade talk. There will NOT be a “substantive” trade deal anytime soon as Trump has claimed, (i.e., he lied.) Here is an overlooked but important detail: China has recently appointed a seasoned trade negotiator, LI CHENGGANG, to be its top negotiator specifically for trade talk. Li is NOT in NOR going to Switzerland this weekend. There will NOT be any trade talk when the person China has appointed to be its head trade negotiator is not even present. The media should pay attention to the detail.

“Nothing in this world is harder than speaking the truth, nothing easier than flattery.” ― Fyodor Dostoevsky

“private capitalists inevitably control the main sources of information. It is thus extremely difficult for the individual citizen to come to objective conclusions” –Albert Einstein

“You can’t operate a capitalistic system unless you are a vulture. You show me a capitalist, I’ll show you a bloodsucker.” –Malcolm X

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A study with a 50,000 sample size looking at genetic association with depression found:
“no gene or gene set produced a statistically significant result after correction for multiple testing. None of the genes or gene sets with the lowest p values appeared to be a biologically plausible candidate.”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165032720331141

A 2019 study tested genes that had been reported in the scientific literature as being associated with depression or anxiety.
The study was funded by an organization with conflicts of interests. It was performed by a department with conflcits of intersts and the authors containted conflicts of interests.

Result: “No clear evidence was found for any candidate gene polymorphism associations with depression”

https://psychiatryonline.org/doi/10.1176/appi.ajp.2018.18070881

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A 2019 meta-analysis was performed which included only studies that found any association among genes and a diagnosis of schizophrenia.

Table 1 shows that no gene sets were replicated in every study. The gene set with the highest association had a 75% replication rate.
Replication is a primary principal of science. Even when cherry picking out the studies showing no association no genetic association achieved replication.

Figure 3 shows the total association of all genes to be 2.3%. Meaning at most 2.3% of schizophrenia
could be explained by genetics. To put this another way at least 98% of schizophrenia has absolute nothing to do with genetics.

Random genes were also tested by the authors in order to see if perhaps even these results were simply due to experimental error, sampling error, statistical chance, or other biases. They found an association
“in every random subset of genes.” This provided support for the null hypothesis.
The null hypothesis being that this tiny genetic association is due to error/chance and is not whatsoever causative (supplementary figure 2).

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41386-019-0410-z

A 2020 study done after the 2019 meta-analysis found similar results with only a 0.5% genetic association with schizophrenia (3% of 17%).

https://academic.oup.com/schizophreniabulletin/article/46/6/1353/5872550?login=false
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45 years ago the rate of autism was 1 in 10,000.
Today the rate of autism is 1 in 30.
The proposition that in such a short time the populations genes have dramatically changed that much is an extraordinary claim.
Not even the people and children from survivors of our two nuclear bombings experienced genetic changes anywhere close to that magnitude.
But let’s be good curious scientists and take a look.

From a 2019 study which is the largest done.
Previously studies –that have not been replicated– that found associations could at most explain “<5% of the overall liability and far less of the heritability" Any genetic causation would be less than that paltry amount.
The previous largest genome-wide association study to date before the 2019 one "did not conclusively identify single variants at genome-wide significance"

The results of the 2019 study:
"We obtained replication data… An overall replication of the direction of effects was observed (53 of 88 (60%)"
"The observed mean variance explained by PRSs (polygenetic risk for autism) was 2.45%"
If the association found in this one non-replicated study is causative it could at most explain 2.45% of autism.
To put that number another way trying to use someone genes to predict if they have autism is as accurate as making a random prediction.
Bluntly, what genetics has to do with autism, is as a scapegoat and distraction from the mass poisoning going on. Wonder who benefits from that…

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-019-0344-8
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As always sci hub can be used to get past paywalls.
https://sci-hub.se/
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“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.” ― Richard Feynman

“The very desire to be certain, to be secure, is the beginning of bondage. It’s only when the mind is not caught in the net of certainty, and is not seeking certainty, that it is in a state of discovery.” –Jiddu Krishnamurti

“Truth always rest with the minority because the minority is formed by those who really have an opinion, while the majority is formed by gangs with no opinion.” –Soren Kierkegaard

“Face your fears or they will climb over your back.” –Dune

About Ukraine- skirmishes, encounters, battles are generally won and lost on chance, and the equipment, training and experience levels of individuals. Wunderwaffe (wonder-weapons) do have an effect here. But, campaigns and wars are won and lost on synergies: everything they do has to work together. Actions reinforce each other. Continuity of command and a minimum of mutual sabotage in the command ranks are necessary. By this metric alone, Ukraine is doomed.

As to why this small war has taken this long, compared to the great wars of 100 years ago: back then all sides had legions of surplus farm boys to throw at the front. Now, not even China has this advantage.