The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Author: Ian Welsh Page 136 of 437

Fundraising Update: Slow, But Hit a Tier

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We’ve raised $5,820. I am grateful to everyone who has given. The fundraiser is, however, going the slowest of any I’ve ever done, which I expect is because of Covid.

We’ve reached the first tier:

A longer article on the collapse of the USSR, putting everything I’m aware of together. In particular, I want to discuss the steps Gorbachev took which seem like either gross stupidity or intentional destruction. The fall of the Soviet Union was studied in great detail by the Chinese Communist Party, and has informed their actions since.

If you can afford to give, I’d definitely appreciate it. If you’re short on rent/food or medicine money, though, please don’t.

The next tier is $2,180 from here. That one is one I think is especially useful, and will build on the collapse of the USSR article.

A summary of world system analysis as practiced mainly by Immanuel Wallerstein, with a look at what it means for the future. World system analysis takes capitalism as a world system, and looks at how it has re-ordered the entire relationship of nations, subordinating them to its needs, though about five centuries. We can see clearly that most countries today are not sovereign, but subject to the system as a whole — this is true to some extent even of the hegemonic power, the US. Wallerstein thinks this world system is played out, and we’ll look at why. (Wallerstein, like Randall Collins, predicted the collapse of the USSR in advance, using his model, when almost all specialists in the USSR did not see it coming.)

After that, at $10K, is a look at the theory of revolutions, something rather…timely for us today, and which will grow even more so as climate change causes conditions to further deteriorate and populations and elite factions lose patience with the fumbling of elite consensus.

If you value my writing, please do give. It makes a big difference, both to me, and to my calculation of how much I should write in the future. Subscriptions count for 3X as much as donations, for reaching the various tiers.

Be well, and if you aren’t giving I hope it’s not because you can’t afford to.

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Under What Circumstances Is Russia Likely to Invade the Ukraine?

Back in 2008, I wrote that Russia would not allow Sevastapol, and thus Crimea, to slip from its grasp. At the time, that view was the decided minority — Russia had “too much to lose,” and I just didn’t understand Russia/European integration.

I’m less certain about the current situation, but as I see it there are two factors. Russia’s been very clear.

  1. Russia will invade the Ukraine rather than let it join NATO. This is the red line. Moscow is a lot harder to defend if troops start from the Ukraine.
  2. While Russia won’t invade only because if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline gets stopped, if that pipeline is decisively stopped, Russia loses a lot of its incentive to keep negotiating with the US and EU.

It should be pointed out, again (because people seem to forget), that Russia is still the World’s Number Two Nuclear Power. A war with Russia has a chance to escalate to apocalypse. To his credit, Biden has said the US will not fight a war over the Ukraine, but there are a lot of forces in the US that disagree. Biden is right (as he was about leaving Afghanistan), and they are wrong.


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Russia is also powerful conventionally. Absent NATO intervention, the Ukraine is not going to win a war against Russia. It’s just that simple (and all this selling them military equipment will simply become a way to transfer that equipment to Russian hands if there’s an invasion), it’s not enough to tip the calculus of whether to go to war. No matter how much equipment gets sent, unless it’s nukes (which would trigger the aforementioned war, similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis almost did), Russia will still be able to crush the Ukrainian military.

Russia was promised, when the USSR broke up, that NATO would not expand past Germany. They feel betrayed; they feel this is a core interest, and they think that nations in their sphere of influence shouldn’t belong to an alliance whose purpose is to fight them (which is what NATO was created for).

I am, as I must tediously keep pointing out, not a fan of Putin, who has done great evil, and who has led Russia into a resource economy trap. But Russia is a great power, Ukraine was part of Russia for centuries, and it is in their sphere of influence. As for Putin, it must be understood that Russians are far better off under his leadership than they were before, and that US-led shock therapy causes catastrophic contraction (i.e., the population dropped because of all the deaths) when applied.

If the US and Europe had seriously wanted Russia as an ally, they wouldn’t have treated it not just as a conquered enemy, but as looting target and ideological straw man. If democracy and capitalism had been made to work for Russia as they were for Japan, Germany, South Korea, and Taiwan, then Russia today would be a sold Western ally, which is what Russians in the 90s mostly saw as the ideal outcome. They wanted to be Europeans.

Instead, Russia is a de-facto Chinese ally. From a geopolitical viewpoint, this is malpractice on a vast scale. China is the actual threat to American hegemony, not Russia, but Russia is important enough to matter — if allied with China. It removes an entire flank the Chinese would otherwise have had to guard against, and flips a powerful military ally to the other side.

Oh, and Taiwan? If there is a Russian war with the West, I’d expect the Chinese to  use that opportunity to force Taiwanese re-unification.

But, bottom line, I don’t think there will be a war unless the West gets very stupid. I could be wrong; there are people who think Putin believes the Ukraine must be re-integrated, whatever the cost, but I don’t see it. The damage to Russia would be too great from sanctions, loss of European markets, and having to fight a guerilla war.

Still, stupidity, on either side, can happen.

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Fred Hiatt and the Terrible Quandry of Elite Journalism

Younger readers may not remember the run-up to the Iraq war. It was a full-court push, with constant lies about Iraq’s “weapons of mass destruction,” and how Iraq was a threat to the US. The media went along with it, with almost no exceptions — and those exceptions paid the price; they were fired or demoted or, at best, their careers stalled.

Fred Hiatt, the Washington Post’s opinion editor just died, and the praise is flowing in, but Fred pushed the Iraq war, hard.

This is not to deny that he may have been a wonderful person to those who knew him — kind, funny, caring, and a good boss. But none of that matters to those killed, maimed, raped, tortured, or impoverished by the Iraq war and all that came from it, which includes ISIS.

To be clear, while there was a propaganda push, it was obvious at the time that it was based on lies. I knew it, and so did millions of others. Even at the time, if you read the stories carefully, it was clear they were bullshit, and that Iraq presented no threat to the US. Saddam was a bad guy, sure, but he wasn’t a threat to much of anyone but Iraqis, and, as events later proved, he was a lot less of a threat to them than what came from a US invasion.

The ostensible job of journalists is to tell the public the truth about important matters. That’s the headline job description, and I suspect most journalists at least began their careers believing it.

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But freedom of the press, as in the famous quote, belongs to those who own them, and journalists work for people with agendas, and senior members are part of the elite themselves. It wasn’t always so, but the days of working class journalists are long gone.

So, when a big propaganda push happens, there’s always a quandary: Your own class and your boss want you to push it.

This leaves journalists, especially senior ones like Fred Hiatt, with three possibilities.

1. They can be stupid and believe the lies.

2. They know they are lies, but they also know that their real job is to repeat those lies, and if that means they contribute to mass death, rape, torture, and so on, well, that was the price of admission. In this case, they have become evil.

3. They tell the truth and are then punished. If, somehow, someone like this has managed to make it to a senior, important position, they lose it. But that’s rare, because you don’t get a job like Hiatt’s without having “made your bones.” Hiatt, a former foreign correspondent, would have spread lies many times before, proving he understood the real job.

So Fred may have been a mensch, but he was either an idiot or someone who used his position of power and influence to contribute to an act of great evil.

But, really, this isn’t about Fred Hiatt. He wasn’t unusual at all, he was straight-up normal for men and women in his position, in his profession. The New York Times pushed the war hard, so did all the networks, and so on. It was elite consensus, and nobody who doesn’t bow down to elite consensus gets the good jobs at an important newspaper or on TV. If they somehow slip through and finally draw a line, they are dealt with.

This means they have, virtually to a person, all sold their souls. They’re almost all evil — well over 90 percent. They’ve made the devil’s bargain of “I will help great evil succeed in exchange for prestige and wealth in this life.”

We’ve set the system up this way, yes, but understand that it isn’t just that the system makes people do this, it is that the people who are willing to do this are those the system selects and promotes. In this regard, they very much are like street gangs wherein to join, you have to murder someone. In journalism, you just have to lie about something that will get people killed or hurt. As a Federal Reserve banker, you just have to support policies you know will impoverish (and kill) millions of people. Etc.

Good people won’t do it, and even people who aren’t that good, but aren’t bad, will eventually find a line they won’t cross.

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Those people don’t make it to important positions, and that’s by design. The system runs on hurting people; Iraqis, Americans, whoever the people in power want to hurt. And if you want power and prestige in this society, you have to not just be cool with that, you must be willing to contribute.

 

Power, Pleasure, and Evil

I am human, and nothing human is alien to my consideration

– Publius Terentius Afer

Perhaps the most fundamental human experience is that of weakness. We are born completely helpless and our childhoods leave us at the mercy of other humans who are stronger and outnumber us. Everything we need, we must get from them, and there is little to nothing we can do to stop them if they choose to hurt us.

The physicist and physical therapist Feldenkrais wrote of being a child a seeing two men grab, kill, and butcher a small pig; almost exactly the same size as him. He realized he was defenseless, and spent decades trying to overcome that experience. He wrote a self-defense manual, figured out from first principles, and later he became the first western Judo black belt, before WWII, and when it was still a powerful combat art.

Even as adults, we know that there are many who are stronger than us, and society decides what we can and can’t do. This is more obvious to women, but even the strongest man knows he isn’t invincible. Most of us have to work for others, doing what they say, often on a minute-to-minute basis, and even those who escape close supervision still must please others for their daily bread. Few, indeed, are the genuine hermits.

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And then there is the body, which so often betrays us with injury, illness, and pain. There is the mind, over which we have so little control: we have thoughts and emotions we’d rather not experience all the time, and often feel like our own minds and bodies are tyrants.

So, humans are weak, and we feel weak. We often deny this to ourselves, because feeling weak is awful, frightening. A full admission of how much is beyond our control means admitting we can die or be in horrible pain at any moment, and the most we can do is influence the odds of it happening. We can never rule something awful happening out entirely.

The feeling of power is thus one of the strongest feelings available to humans. I remember reading a review of a book by a torturer in the Lebanese civil war. He wrote that torturing people was the most intense experience he ever had; so intense, in fact, that it ruined everything else for him. Food was tasteless, even sex was meaningless. After the rush of power from torture, the ultimate violation of social norms and one of the ultimate expressions of control over another person, nothing else ever came close.

This may horrify you. Perhaps you think you would be different (though it is best to never find out, by never torturing), but I think that most people would find the same.

Now, torture is an obvious extreme, but it’s done all the time. It’s routine in prisons in most countries, police even in “civilized” countries regularly inflict beatings severe enough to qualify, and when the US officially tortured in the 2000s there was no punishment for it beyond rapping on the knuckles of a few low-level grunts. The most severe penalty anyone received was given to the CIA whistleblower who revealed the details of the CIA torture — not the people who perpetrated it or ordered it.

Power comes in gradations. There’s the simple bully, which we’ve all experienced, I think, as children. “Do what I say, or I’ll hurt you.” Most authority is ultimately based on this, including routine authority of parents, teachers, and bosses. If you think otherwise, do the thought experiments of what happens if you just refuse to do what people with power want you to.

When a bully pushes you around, they feel powerful. It’s a good feeling, it’s pleasant. If you say otherwise, you’re lying to yourself. You must understand how the world actually is, even if you personally don’t enjoy forcing other people to your will.

But schoolyard bullies or screaming bosses — or even muggers and serial killers — are the Deltas of the world of power. They’re nothing, insects.

Real power is what top-level politicians, generals, executives, and ritual leaders have. There was an Indian guru who told some of his male followers to castrate themselves. They did.

Then there’s political power. Bill Clinton cut welfare, passed a terrible prison bill, and did many other horrible things, and he was beloved by so many of those he hurt. Obama, the first Black president, was terrible for African Americans, but they love him anyway. Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s selfishness on staying on the Supreme Court when she was old and sick with cancer helped pave the way for the loss of abortion rights, but many women who support abortion rights consider her a hero.

George W. Bush sent the children of poor whites off to Iraq and Afghanistan to die, get PTSD, or get maimed, and the parents of those he sent and many of those he sent love him. Politicians, for generations, have pursued policies which impoverished 90 percent or so of Americans, and each of them was loved by millions.

Power is hurting someone, and having them love you anyway. Power is “believe me, not your lying eyes.” The sheer rush of being Clinton, Obama, or Bush and crushing your supporters — hurting them terribly, and having them worship you; this is pleasure.

Don’t think that they don’t get off on it. Don’t think they don’t enjoy it. Bush had brain damage by the time he was President (listen to him talk in ’92, then in ’02), but all three men were smart, and Clinton and Obama were borderline geniuses. They knew what they were doing; they knew who they were hurting.

And those people loved them for it.

That’s power. And for some people, that’s pleasure. They do it because they enjoy doing it.

Then there’s the executives. The ones who raise insulin prices so high that thousands die. They know. They know they’re killing you. They like it. They have that power, and even as you’re dying, begging for insulin money (or cancer money, or whatever) online, they’re laughing, because they know you’re powerless and will do nothing to hurt them, even while they kill  you.

Power. Pleasure. The groveling of the weak before the strong.

If someone does something and doesn’t actually need to do it to survive, they do it because they want to. When a very rich person decides to kill thousands to millions of people to get more money, they’re doing it because they like it. When Jeff Bezos treats Amazon workers like animals, having ambulances parked outside to take the fallen away, he does it because he wants to.

We humans are weak. The feeling of power is one of the ultimate experiences, and power over other humans, animals, and the world (destroying the world for money, knowingly) is pleasurable for a lot of people. It isn’t just that they don’t care, it’s that they like it.

Now, despite everything, power isn’t innately evil. It can be used for good, and there are cases and times when it has been. It’s been hard to do so for most of human history since the advent of agriculture, because we set up systems that incentivized cruelty, in which more cruelty led to more power. Capitalism is almost explicitly such a system, and certainly agrarian civilizations were almost uniformly evil, with few exceptions.

But power can be used for good, and you can get as much pleasure from using your power to help others as you can from using it to hurt people. I suspect there is even more pleasure, honestly. I think Obama, who had the opportunity to be the next FDR (who did some evil, but much more good), was a fool to choose the pleasures of elite regard and cruelty over what would have been a vast tide of love and loyalty from the majority of Ameircans.

We’ll talk about that in a followup piece.

But for now,  you’re ruled by evil people who hurt you because they like how it feels.

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Open Thread

Use comments to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

The Simplest Way to Control Consciousness

I remember fairly clearly the day when, while trying to choose what to read in a bookstore, I realized that what I was choosing is who would control my consciousness — my mind — for a couple hours.

It wasn’t a thought I’d never had before; after all when we watch TV or a movie, or read a book, we want our consciousness to be changed for a while, but the “I’m letting the author’s mind control me” epiphany was direct, vivid, and somewhat alarming.

We think of ourselves as our bodies and thoughts, and as everything else as “outside” us, but that’s wrong. We never experience anything but ourselves, we experience nothing but our own consciousness. It is literally impossible to experience anything that isn’t yourself, including these words.

This is true regardless of your metaphysics. The material world may well exist, but what of it? At best, you experience it as a representation in your consciousness.

Because I’m slow, it took me about year to apply the “mind control” understanding to my environment. Every room I’m in, every vista I see, every road I walk, and every person I see or hear or talk to is in my mind. The environment — cars, people, walls, buildings — controls and forms my consciousness.

There isn’t any question that this effects me, what I think, what mood I’m in. There’s vast research literature on something as simple as the what mood different colors cause.

So my environment, my day to day environment, where I live, work, eat, sleep and walk, what I read or watch, and who I talk to or hug — that’s my consciousness.

Now I meditate, and I have more control over the emotional tone of my consciousness and the thoughts I think than a lot of people, but still, the environment is a huge influence. If I see people fighting, or I’m threatened, yeah, I can influence my emotional reaction, but I have to and sometimes I can’t. If, on the other hand, I interact with friendly, even loving people, it’s a lot easier.


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Likewise if I’m walking through some slum, full of despair, that changes my consciousness. If I’m in a beautiful room full of plants or pictures, I feel better than if I’m in a room of crumbling concrete, stained and stinking, because my consciousness changes to be like wherever I am. My consciousness IS my environment.

So the simplest way to control consciousness isn’t meditation (much as I have benefited from meditation) it’s to control your environment — the rooms you live in, sleep in, and work in. Your neighbourhood, if  you can. The people you interact with, to the extent  you can.

If something’s bad in your environment and you can change it to something better, you’re directly changing your consciousness for the better.

And even the most self-controlled, disciplined mind, is affected by environment. If you’re in an awful environment (and the most important part of an environment is the people), you have to constantly manage that; it’s a stress.

So beware of the environment you live in, please, and don’t assume you’re some Buddha who can just shrug it off (which, even he didn’t — and couldn’t — before he was the Buddha).

 

Environment: Politics Series Chapter VI

Previous: Groups and Coalitions

(Introduction and Table of Contents)

I struggled a bit with what word to use for this chapter; to most people today, “environment” means the natural world, but here I’m using it to include not just that, but the social and the built environment. The social environment is the people around us and how they act: a nomadic clan is very different from a peasant village, and both are different from an American city, which is different from a Chinese city or the rural areas in both countries.

The environment, things like geography, technology and upbringing, determines what politics are possible, but how which politics happen.

Time also matters. Growing up in the 1930s was very different from growing up in the 1950s, let alone in the 2000s. Although it’s controversial, generations do have shared characteristics, because they have shared experiences due to similarities in their lived experience.

Environment is not separate from ideology and identity, of course — what the people around you believe and try to make you believe is important. How they act based on their beliefs matters. What identity groups exist for you to join or reject also matters.

Environment forms people; it is a large part of what creates their characters and their abilities. Even if you reject something about your environment, even if you hate it and can’t wait to leave, by reacting against it, you are being formed by it. (Our relationships with the people who raise us is similar — there is no escaping their influence.)

Ideologies must explain the environment we live with in. Hunter-gatherer religions tend to be polytheistic and animistic and concerned with luck, cycles, and the bounty of nature, because hunting is an activity where luck matters a great deal. The deer can bolt at the last second, the seal can dive, and you’ll have nothing. Gatherers manage the environment more than most realize, but it’s still a gift from the spirits or the Gods.

Agrarian communities, on the other hand, tend to have all-powerful sky Gods. You must have rain at the right time and no early or late frosts, or the crops fail, and many starve. The earth is seen as more passive, and the farmer plants the seed, but the sky can be fickle.

The modern American equivalent is “job creators.” All good things come from money and you get money from jobs, so “job creators” are the modern Gods: Billionaires, in older times inventors, entrepreneurs, and so on. Because they are the the people who give others good things, they must be treated with reverence and not taxed too much, so they can keep showering their beneficience upon the people.


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From about 1930 to the 1970s, almost no one believed that “job creators” were a thing. The Great Depression had taught them that capitalists, bosses, and bankers were clueless idiots who if not kept in an arm-lock at all times would crater the economy and create untold hardship. So we regulated them tightly and taxed them, often at over 90 percent marginal rates and we saw government, which had gotten us out of the Great Depression as good, and believed in spreading wealth and income to increase demand, since a demand collapse caused the Great Depression.

But that distrust of business and the rich, and that belief in equality was a function of environment; it explained the Great Depression. In the 50s and 60s, business operated well, provided a lot of good jobs and didn’t overpay their executives. But then the government couldn’t handle the oil shocks and an ideology was presented, created by people like Milton Friedman and pushed hard by big money interests, that said that government regulation of business and taxation of rich people was the problem, and that private enterprise would create a new dawn in the US. Enough people believed this to swing the 1980 election to Reagan, and neoliberalism took power.

Now, in the early 2020s, private enterprise and government both look incompetent, and young people have huge debts and little chance of ever owning a home. The stage is set for another explanation to rise.

When written narratively like this, we could go back through ideologies and sub-ideologies for hundreds of years if we wanted to, it sounds inevitable. This is, in essence, the crude Marxist’s argument: Material circumstances control superstructure like ideology, so look at the material circumstances.

But this is only half-true; ideology is constrained by material circumstances, absolutely. It has to explain both the environment in which people live and the material support of ideologues often constrains them. The 17th century philosophes who created the Englightenment values which powered the American and French revolutions could not have happened without French Salon culture, a multiplicity of possible patrons and a robust book and pamphlet publishing industry. Before the printing press and during the time when essentially all intellectuals were under Church control, the rise of the bourgeousie and the Philosophes could never have happened.

So ideology is definitely related to material circumstances, but there are always multiple ways to explain the environment. Even within a major ideology, there are sub-ideological transitions — as with the one between New Deal/post-war capitalism and neoliberalism which we have discussed so much in this booklet.

None of this is predetermined. The 70s did not have to lead to neoliberalism. There were other threads to follow, including one which suggested the initiation of a green transition to reduce dependence on oil.

In the early- to mid-20th century, wars were fought to determine which political ideologies would be most important: Communism and Democratic Capitalism defeated Fascism (a capitalist ideology, but not a democratic one), then Communism collapsed later. There’s a very strong argument that capitalism won not because of any innate superiority (as its ideologues argue), but simply because it had a stronger geographic and economic position all through both wars and the Cold War, and that superior position was largely a historical accident.

Environment has other effects. Some of them are obvious and often commented on in geopolitics: location, climate, resources, whether there are defensible borders like rivers, mountains or coasts (Britain’s history is impossible for any non-Island state, the same is true of Japan). As they are often discussed, we’ll pass those by, and move onto how our lives create our character and abilities.

The Mongol conquests, nor any of the other great horse nomad invasions wouldn’t have been possible if horse nomads hadn’t learned to ride and shoot starting as very young children. The signature Mongol military maneuver of firing accurately behind them as they rode away from attackers, for example, is something most people simply could not do. Likewise, in the Middle Ages, knights trained from childhood, and it was said that anyone who didn’t start as a child would ever be any good.

Our lives give us our abilities, but they also form our character. In modern life, most people spend at least 12 years in school where they are taught to not speak unless given permission, to do what they’re told in exactly the way they are told, and are ranked by how well they do what they are ordered to do. Those who rebel or are otherwise bad at doing what they’re told when they’re told, sitting still and shutting up unless called on, are filtered so that most of them will never have good jobs. Those who succeed have shown exactly the abilities bosses want: Subservience to authority and willingness to do exactly what a boss orders in exactly the way the boss wants it done.

That we then expect a population trained this way, who in both their childhood and adult lives make almost no decisions, to be “free” is one of the grand ironies of our age. We march to war, in the millions if necessary, do what authorities tell us to, and are generally compliant to the demands of power. That’s our character, and it’s what our daily lives train us to be, not just in school but at work.

This is why people like Jefferson thought democracy required a base of Yeoman farmers: People who made their own decisions about what to do each day, even if constrained by weather, soil, and other natural demands. The term wage-slave was coined in the 19th century precisely because employees lost so much relative freedom, and, in many places, universal state schooling had to be imposed with military force against parents who felt their children were being stolen from them.

The great period of unionization was built on huge factories; where everyone was treated almost identically by employers. They did basically the same thing all day, in the same few factories owned by any employer. They saw each other regularly and were used to working together already — plus, factories of the time were places of hard, brutal, and dangerous manual labor, so early workers were often willing to risk physical confrontations. The same thing could be seen in China during its recent industrialization, with riots where workers would tear up beds in dorms to get the steel rods to fight with.

The environment, then, inevitably forms our character and our abilities — how brave we are, how used to thinking for ourselves, but it also it helps create our social ties. In a highly anomic society, where even families often live far apart due to traveling to get jobs, such as in the late 20th century US, social ties become thin, and concerted action becomes difficult.

Then environment also includes technology, especially the technology of conflict. Armored knights as the pre-eminent military force could never create an egalitarian society. Firearms, where anyone can kill anyone and where mass armies make sense and are feasible, did. Republican Rome and Greek City states exactly made citizens of those who could afford to fight in the Phalanx or row galleys and Rome had a class above the commons, the Equites, made up of those who could afford a horse and thus fight as cavalry.

The Swiss cantons, with their Pikemen, who regularly defeated cavalry, were a late Medieval equivalent, and while one of the first nations with male suffrage, were one of the last to give women the vote. But they also could not have existed outside a mountainous area like the Swiss Alps, because cavalry could have easily swept past pikemen.

By World War I and II, industrial production became key to winning wars, and with so many men conscripted, women went to work in the factories en mass during wartime and women soon gained the vote.

This relationship of voting to production was also based on how the economy was organized during the late 19th through mid 20th century. It’s the economy, and its effects on politics (and vice versa), which we will discuss next.

Next: Economy

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Table of Contents

What Would Chinese Democracy Look Like?

A few months ago I read a couple of books by the Singaporean intellectual Kishore Mahbubani. In Has China Already Won?: The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy, Mahbubani discusses Taiwan.

The one exceptional trigger for a war involving China is Taiwan. Most of the time, the Chinese leaders have a lot of policy flexibility. There are no strong domestic lobbies to worry about. But the one issue where the Chinese leaders cannot bend and compromise is Taiwan. Any Chinese leader, including Xi Jinping (despite all his power), could be removed if he is perceived to be weak on Taiwan. Why is Taiwan so fundamental to China? There is a very simple explanation. Every Chinese knows the century of humiliation that China suffered from the Opium War to 1949. Nearly all the historical vestiges of this century of humiliation have been removed or resolved, including Hong Kong and Macau.

Only one remains: Taiwan. It was Chinese territory until China was forced to hand it to Japan after the humiliating defeat in the Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895.

Mahbubani also discusses what sort of person would be elected if China was a democracy.

Think Theodore Roosevelt, who, if you aren’t aware, was a raging warmonger. Xi, and the CCP in general, are a moderating influence on Chinese foreign affairs. China’s population has far more aggressive feelings than China’s current rulers. They are still furious about the “century of humiliation,” and they want China to be the number one nation in the world — or certainly to be dominant in its sphere of influence, exactly as Americans did in through the late 19th century to the 20th century.

We have some really weird ideas about our own  history, or about what is normal for rising or re-establishing great powers.


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They always take control of their near abroad if they can. This is why Russia is willing to fight a war for the Ukraine, if it comes to it: The Ukraine was part of Russia for centuries. China is actually being remarkably flexible about Taiwan for a rising power. The US bent every country near it to its will and took chunks of land out of both Mexico and Canada, while replacing governments in Latin and South America regularly. Britain brought Scotland and Ireland into its “union.” Germany grabbed everything near it that it could, until defeated in World War II. Japan went on one of the biggest empire building sprees in history.

Other countries, of course, will resist as best they can, and I personally think that Taiwan should stay free. But the price of its freedom is allowing Chinese leaders to save face with their own population: They are saying “Taiwan and China are part of one country.”

This isn’t the 90s, when the US had an easy veto over a Chinese conquest of Taiwan. American aircraft carriers, if they try to intervene, will be sunk by China’s massive arsenal of missiles. China has nuclear weapons and is de-facto allied with Russia, so escalation is extremely dangerous.

Taiwan and the Ukraine are not, fundamentally, the West’s business — except, of course, that the West’s semiconductor fabrication is concentrated in Taiwan due to idiotic Western trade and industrial policies.

Both China and the West are building semiconductor fab as fast as they can in their heartlands. Soon even this vulnerability will be gone, on both sides.

In the meantime, if China wants to say “Taiwan is part of China,” which is something the US agreed to as far back as Nixon, it’s a cheap way to keep a small democratic state going and avoid a potential world war.

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