Let’s keep this simple: every day the Strait of Hormuz is closed, more damage is done to the world economy. The US is not immune to this as it needs ammonia and helium: helium is used to make chips (which the US mostly does not make but does consume) and ammonia is vital for fertilizer. Plus oil prices go up for Americans even if they don’t run out: and they will run low on bunker fuel and jet fuel.

Trump’s “blockade of the blockade” is not working: slightlymore Iranian ships are making it thru than are being stopped and only one has been seized. FT:

At least 34 tankers with links to Iran have bypassed the US blockade since it began, according to the cargo tracking group Vortexa, including several carrying Iranian oil — despite US President Donald Trump declaring the barricade a “tremendous success”…

…US forces have so far detained one container ship in the Gulf of Oman and boarded a sanctioned tanker in the Indo-Pacific. US Central Command said on Tuesday the US Navy had directed 28 vessels to turn back to Iranian ports since the blockade began.

Iran doesn’t actually need much from the rest of the world: they have enough oil, obviously, and they can feed themselves. Plus there are land routes open which are not interdicted. Iran, in less than a week, repaired all of the train bridges and track which had been destroyed by US and Israeli bombing.

So there’s no need to Iran to soak up more hits. Their big weapon is keeping the Strait closed and it is.

The US has resupplied massively, but Iran has used the time to clear the debris around their underground mountain bases, and is read for the next round. Launchers turn out not to be much of an issue: they’re just trucks with hydraulic lifts, after all. If the war does continue, Iran is ready, and they’ve made threats to hit the underwater internet cables around the Gulf, which would knock out internet to essentially the entire Gulf.

Overall I see no reason to change my original analysis, which is that Iran will win this war. America’s deals are such non-starters that Iran isn’t even sending diplomats to engage in negotiations any more: the Americans keep asking for Iran to give up all its nuclear stockpile and open the Strait without charging for access and both of those are unacceptable: Iran is going to need the money to rebuild. They have offered to allow inspections and to reduce their 60% enriched uranium to 20% under supervision, and that’s the best they’ll offer.

All of this is very unfortunate for Lebanon, Hezbollah and the Palestinians, though. Israel, as usual, isn’t really obeying the truce and is using this time to occupy a strip of southern Lebanon. They couldn’t take it while Hezbollah was fighting, but as usual Hezbollah is hamstrung by internal Lebanese politics and unwilling to fight and be blamed for Israel bombing.

The war continues, in a sort of weird Sitzkrieg, and Iran improves its position every day the truce continues. America wants Iran to give up in negotiations what America cannot win in war, and that’s unlikely to happen.

This is the end of the American global empire. We’re witnessing a massive change in the world order. Pity it has to be so stupid and damaging, but late Imperial states are always run by corrupt fools.

 

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