The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 10, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 10, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

 

Mother’s Day

Heather Cox Richardson, May 10, 2026 [Letters from an American, May 9, 2026]

If you google the history of Mother’s Day, the internet will tell you that Mother’s Day began in 1908 when Anna Jarvis decided to honor her mother. But “Mothers’ Day”—with the apostrophe not in the singular spot, but in the plural—actually started in the 1870s, when the sheer enormity of the death caused by the Civil War and the Franco-Prussian War convinced writer and reformer Julia Ward Howe that women must take control of politics from the men who had permitted such carnage. Mothers’ Day was not designed to encourage people to be nice to their mothers. It was part of women’s effort to gain power to change society….

 

War

Iran used Chinese spy satellite to target US bases

[Financial Times, via The Big Picture, May 05, 2026]

Leaked documents show IRGC secretly acquired system and used it to guide strikes during war in March. Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite to target US military bases across the Middle East. The China-Iran axis just became a lot more concrete — and a lot more dangerous.

 

Iran has hit far more U.S. military assets than reported, satellite images show

Evan Hill, Jarrett Ley, Alex Horton, Tara Copp and Dan Lamothe, May 6, 2026 [Washington Post]

Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment, according to a Washington Post analysis of satellite imagery. The amount of destruction is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or previously reported….

Experts who reviewed The Post’s analysis said the damage at the sites suggested that the U.S. military had underestimated Iran’s targeting abilities, not adapted sufficiently to modern drone warfare and left some bases under-protected.
“The Iranian attacks were precise. There are no random craters indicating misses,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a retired Marine Corps colonel, who reviewed the Iranian images at The Post’s request. The Post previously revealed how Russia provided Iran with intelligence to target U.S. forces….
Shaun King, May 07, 2026
Satellite images show extensive damage to at least 15 U.S. military sites, with over 225 essential pieces of equipment destroyed — and the American people were never told the full scale of it….

What The Washington Post has now documented is something altogether different: a state adversary damaging U.S. military infrastructure across an entire region. Bahrain. Kuwait. Qatar. Saudi Arabia. Jordan. The United Arab Emirates. Multiple bases. Multiple categories of targets. Multiple forms of military infrastructure.

That is the point.

Iran did not merely “respond.” Iran demonstrated that the U.S. military footprint across the Middle East is not some invisible, invincible architecture of empire.

It is a map of fixed targets.

 

Demand destruction vs fuel-superseding infrastructure

Cory Doctorow, 04 May 2026) [Pluralistic]

… In starting this stupid, unforgivable war, Trump has vastly accelerated the process of demand destruction. Rather than buying American oil, the whole world has undertaken a simultaneous, rapid, irreversible shift to electrical substitutes for fossil fuel applications, from induction tops to balcony solar to ebikes and EVs:

https://thepolycrisis.org/01-demand-destruction-us-oil-is-not-winning-the-iran-war/

As Solnit writes, Trump’s stupid war follows on the heels of another unforgivable and cruel blunder: Putin’s quagmire in Ukraine, which catapulted Europe into the Gretacene, with a wholesale, continent-wide shift away from fossil fuels to renewables and the devices they power. Now, the rest of the world is following suit. In South Korea, President Lee Jae Myung is leading the charge to transition the country to renewables, framing fossil fuels as an existential geopolitical risk.

Trump’s demand destruction accelerates Putin’s demand destruction: China and India both increased their energy consumption in 2025 – but reduced their fossil fuel consumption over the same period. In 2025, coal accounted for less than a third of the world’s energy for the first time in modern history. 2025 was the year that solar and wind overtook coal globally.

Meanwhile, Trump and his oil baron buddies keep trying to make fetch happen. On the campaign trail, Trump told the oil industry that if they slipped him a $1b bribe, he would give them anything they wanted, and he’s kept his promise. Trump will let Big Oil drill anywhere they like, from sacred sites like New Mexico’s Chaco Canyon to the Arctic. He’ll even let them take all of Venezuela’s oil. The problem is that banks can see the demand destruction writing on the wall, and they are conspicuously declining to loan the oil companies the money they’d need to get that oil.

Truly, Trump’s a machine for creating stranded assets at scale.

In starting this stupid, unforgivable war, Trump has vastly accelerated the process of demand destruction. Rather than buying American oil, the whole world has undertaken a simultaneous, rapid, irreversible shift to electrical substitutes for fossil fuel applications, from induction tops to balcony solar to ebikes and EVs:

https://thepolycrisis.org/01-demand-destruction-us-oil-is-not-winning-the-iran-war/

As Solnit writes, Trump’s stupid war follows on the heels of another unforgivable and cruel blunder: Putin’s quagmire in Ukraine, which catapulted Europe into the Gretacene, with a wholesale, continent-wide shift away from fossil fuels to renewables and the devices they power. Now, the rest of the world is following suit. In South Korea, President Lee Jae Myung is leading the charge to transition the country to renewables, framing fossil fuels as an existential geopolitical risk.

Trump’s demand destruction accelerates Putin’s demand destruction: China and India both increased their energy consumption in 2025 – but reduced their fossil fuel consumption over the same period. In 2025, coal accounted for less than a third of the world’s energy for the first time in modern history. 2025 was the year that solar and wind overtook coal globally.

Meanwhile, Trump and his oil baron buddies keep trying to make fetch happen. On the campaign trail, Trump told the oil industry that if they slipped him a $1b bribe, he would give them anything they wanted, and he’s kept his promise. Trump will let Big Oil drill anywhere they like, from sacred sites like New Mexico’s Chaco Canyon to the Arctic. He’ll even let them take all of Venezuela’s oil. The problem is that banks can see the demand destruction writing on the wall, and they are conspicuously declining to loan the oil companies the money they’d need to get that oil.

Truly, Trump’s a machine for creating stranded assets at scale….

 

 

Ukraine’s rapid rise as an anti-drone powerhouse

[New Atlas, via The Big Picture, May 05, 2026]

Necessity makes the best R&D lab. Kyiv’s counter-drone industry now exports back to NATO. In only four years after the Russian invasion, Ukraine went from being a country knocked back on its heels and scrambling for military aid to emerging as a leading provider of battlefield-tested counter-drone expertise and exporter of anti-drone weapons systems. How did this happen? Let’s find out.

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025

 

Insane Pre-Crime Strategy Unveiled for Leftist “Extremists” 

Ken Klippenstein [via Naked Capitalism 05-07-2025]

The White House declared war on the American people today, labeling its political opponents as terrorists, including “Left-wing extremists.” The new label also claims that there are “deepening alliances” between “the far-left and Islamists” — or pro-Palestinian protesters.

The language is contained in the White House’s newly released National Counterterrorism Strategy. It is the first National Strategy to be unveiled since 2021, when the Biden administration issued its document. The Strategy identifies the “left-wing,” “anti-Fascists,” “Anarchists” and “radically pro-transgender” ideologies as threats equivalent to jihadi groups like al Qaeda and ISIS, or narco-traffickers.

The Strategy is the brainchild of White House counterterrorism czar Sebastian Gorka, an eccentric figure I have reported on, who last year hinted at terrorism charges being levied for political opponents of the administration. The document makes clear he got his wish. Gorka called the Strategy “my life’s work,” ….

“Counterterrorism” Now Officially Means Targeting Trans People

Sophie Hurwitz, May 8, 2026 [Mother Jones]

On Wednesday, the White House released a new “United States Counterterrorism Strategy,” the first such directive since a 2021 Biden-era memo emphasizing the need to combat white supremacist violence, which has now been scrubbed from the White House website.

Wednesday’s document, masterminded by White House “counterterrorism czar” Sebastian Gorka, does not mention far-right violence at all. It identifies “Violent Left-Wing Extremists, including Anarchists and Anti-Fascists” as a security threat of equal severity to “Legacy Islamist Terrorists” and “Narcoterrorists and Transnational Gangs.” The administration will now apparently “prioritize the rapid identification and neutralization of violent secular political groups whose ideology is anti-American, radically pro-transgender, and anarchist.

Open Thread

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 03, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 03, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

 

War

War, El Niño, Pestilence, and Famine: The Coming Shock to Global Food Supplies

Craig Tindale [via Naked Capitalism 04-27-2025]

 

Why Iran’s Oil Infrastructure Is Not Exploding Like Trump Said It Would

Murtaza Hussain, May 01, 2026 [Drop Site News]

 

Why U.S. Oil Companies Are Not Plugging the World’s Energy Gap

[New York Times, via Naked Capitalism 05-02-2025]

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025

 

Trump blames No Kings for assassination attempt

[Popular Information, via Naked Capitalism 04-29-2025]

 

Comey Indictment Shows Justice Dept. Got the Message From Bondi’s Firing

Glenn Thrush, April 30, 2026 [Washington Post]

In naming only an interim successor as acting attorney general, President Trump has established even greater incentives to execute his most extreme demands, current and former officials say.

Open Thread

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We Don’t Need Chinese Exceptionalism

Chinese and American flags flying together

Thirty years ago I knew that China would be the next “America”. The next “Britain.” The next industrial and technological hegemon.

I wrote about this back in the early 2000s, at BOPNews, the Agonist and FDL. When the Chinese were let into the WTO by Bill Clinton their rise and replacement of the US became inevitable.

At one time the British were the greatest in the world. They were exceptional: smarter and more powerful than anyone else.

Then we had a century of American exceptionalism. The American way was the best way. Americans were superior. They were more creative. Their government system was the ideal system, etc, etc…

American exceptionalism was and is ugly. The American system was not the best of all time (contra the idiotic “End of History” thesis) and neither was the British or, more generally, European “Liberal Democracy”.

Nor is the Chinese system the greatest of all time. Chinese culture is not the world’s greatest culture. The Chinese people are not innately superior to other people.

China industrialized the same way that almost everyone did. They had support from the current industrial hegemon, same as both America and Japan did. (Japan had British help during the Meiji period and American help after WWII.) They ran a protectionist mercantile export policy. Instead of tariffs they used currency manipulation.

British financiers built a ton of American industry, because profits were higher in America than in the more mature industrial state of Britain. Americans offshored and outsourced to China because profits were higher in China.

There’s no way to do mass offshoring to a country without also transferring technology, but more than that, wherever the manufacturing floor is, the technological lead follows. It takes twenty to thirty years to gain the tech lead once you’ve gained the manufacturing lead.

China also ran the rest of the Japanese playbook: get your population educated, starting with getting everyone primary education. Then get everyone secondary education. Only then do you go all out at the university level.

This is the way almost every nation (there are less than five exceptions) has industrialized. If you want the full explanation, read “Bad Samaritans.”

What makes China different is what made the US different from Britain: it’s a continental power with a much larger population than the previous hegemonic power. So it can scale better and once it takes the leads the previous power is cooked.

This is why Japan had to cut a deal with the US: why it could be forced to give up its tech and industrial lead: it’s an island nation with a smaller population than the US. That can’t be done to China, because it’s larger and because so much of what it needs now comes from uninterruptible continental supply chains. (Plus, very soon, they will be a greater naval power than America.)

We’re going to have a “Chinese Century” and we’re going to have to put up with tons of claims of Chinese exceptionalism. Their system is innately better, they have a superior culture, they’re more creative than everyone else and heck, as a race they’re superior.

They aren’t. They don’t even have as good a claim as Britain did: they weren’t the first. They just did what a ton of other countries did, including the US, Japan, South Korean and Taiwan.

This doesn’t mean they don’t deserve admiration and credit for becoming the hegemonic power. They still had to do a lot of things right, including taking advantage of a foolish and stupid financializing elite in America, just as the Americans took advantage of a foolish and stupid financializing elite in Britain. They worked hard. They worked smart. They deserve their century in the sun, and if they’re smart and capable, maybe they’ll get two centuries if climate change doesn’t take them down.

But they aren’t innately superior. They’re following a well worn playbook, taking advantage of the usual cycle of ideological change within hegemonic powers.

The screams of America exceptionalism were bullshit. Claims of Chinese exceptionalism are also bullshit except in the sense that they are currently on top. Over time they will be corrupted from within, because this is a universal pattern which always happens and someone else will take the lead. They will remain a great power if

1) they avoid collapse into warlordism, however, because they are a continental power who will retain a large population even after the onrushing demographic collapse; and,

2) There isn’t another true revolution in production and technology like the industrial revolution, which happens somewhere other than China.

America exceptionalism was ugly and tiresome. So is Chinese exceptionalism.

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Distributing Resources Based On Jobs Is Outdated And Stupid

I want to spend more time writing about the baseline assumptions of our political economy.

One of the worst is that people have to work to get resources. “If you don’t work, you don’t eat”.

This made sense at one time, when famines were common, food and resources were scarce and predatory nobles and priests took most of the surplus. There wasn’t a lot of space for people who didn’t work.

But it doesn’t make sense now. Buckminster Fuller most famously said it:

The fact is that we have more than enough of everything basic, or could easily make it. Food, housing (there are less homeless people in the western world than empty homes), basic electronics, health care, etc, etc…

We waste vast amounts of resources, and we make people work at jobs that either produce nothing or are actually a negative.

Most of those administrators spend their time denying care, not providing it. About a third should become technicians, nurses, orderlies and doctors, the rest aren’t needed at all. The same chart exists for schools:

And while not quite as bad, for universities:

The vast majority of all of this is sheer waste, but it’s also a waste of human lives. These people aren’t doing anything necessary, but they are forced to spend their lives doing meaningless “work”.

At least much of this administrative bloat is just wasteful. People working shadow banking, Private Equity and Wall Street make their money buy rolling up companies, loading them up with debt, laying people off, raising prices and then causing bankruptcy of firms which were actually profitable, who provided real work and products at reasonable prices.

They are actively damaging. It would be more than worth it to forbid such people from working at all and pay then low six figures to stop hurting other people.

Same thing goes with most prison guards and police, who do not reduce crime, but do increase incarceration.

The truth is that at least half of jobs shouldn’t exist. They either aren’t necessary, or they’re actively harmful. It would be better just give people money.

None of this is to deny that there is work which needs to be done. But a vast switch from administration and financial industries and dochebags selling internet ads into actual productive enterprises would produce a far better economy. Even so, all our advances in production mean that we genuinely do or can produce far more than we need. So just give people enough money to live a good life, reduce the standard work week to three days, and let people who want to contribute work at jobs which make the world better, not worse, and which aren’t makework.

We can’t even imagine a world where we don’t force people to spend their entire lives doing things they wouldn’t do if they weren’t scared of starvation and homelessness. We can’t conceive of a world where we don’t create goods designed to wear out, and instead create long lasting appliances and computers and roads and cars and high speed rail and so on: goods designed to last. We need profit, so we produce vast amounts of crap we only need because of of that “need” for profit.

This insanity has caused global warming, mass extinctions and vast amounts of needless unhappiness, bad health and lives wasted doing meaningless or harmful work.

We need a better way, and the first step is to end the idea that if you don’t work you shouldn’t have a home, food and a decent life.

More on this in the future.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 26, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 26, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

 

War

How Iran has been studying lessons from the war in Ukraine

[FT Alphaville, via The Big Picture, April 20, 2026]

Military journals provide tantalising glimpses into what Tehran’s military thinks and its priorities, including drones. Tehran’s military journals reveal how closely it’s been watching drone and missile warfare.

 

How Iran war has triggered soaring cost of medicines 

[Aljazeera, via Naked Capitalism 04-25-2025]

 

To A Conclusion. 

Aurelien [via Naked Capitalism 04-23-2025]

…But we have become so used to the Liberal internationalist way of thinking, where all problems have a reasonable solution and compromise is only a negotiation away, that we cannot recognise and understand a situation where a negotiated solution cannot actually address the fundamental issues that divide parties from each other. But that is the case here. The obsession of the US and Israel with the destruction of Iran, and the Iranian desire to preserve itself and to come to dominate the region, can simply never be reconciled, even by the most brilliant negotiators in history. This one, I’m afraid, will have to be fought out to a conclusion, whatever that might be.

 

GOP senators ponder giving Trump official blessing for Iran war 

[Responsible Statecraft, via Naked Capitalism 04-22-2025]

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