Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 12, 2021

by Tony Wikrent

Strategic Political Economy

[Twitter, via Naked Capitalism 12-5-2021]

… the playing fields of Eton:

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The Pandemic That Capitalism Made

Umair Haque, via Naked Capitalism 12-9-2021]

It Would Cost Less to Vaccinate the World Than Big Pharma Earns in Vaccine Profits. If That Doesn’t Make Sense…That’s Because It Doesn’t

Do you ever wonder about those pharma TV commercials, and why any company would pay millions to have a speed-talker drone on about bad side-effects for 30 seconds? The intended result is what Haque writes about former CDC Director Tom Frieden’s comments in Europe that “Big Pharma is war profiteering” off COVID: 

Why does he say that? Well, first note that he had to head to the UK, to say it on Dispatches, which is one of the nation’s finest and most hardest-hitting news programs. In other words, nobody in America would even run the story.

 

Normalizing Corruption: The Biden White House purports to be worried about corruption — just not the kind now dominating American politics.

Andrew Perez, December 9, 2021 [Daily Poster].

“Corruption robs citizens of equal access to vital services, denying the right to quality health care, public safety, and education,” the Biden administration wrote Monday [report], adding that corruption ‘has been shown to significantly curtail the ability of states to respond effectively to public health crises.’ The Biden administration, as it turns out, is a perfect example of this: Every policy solution they propose involves some sort of corporate giveaway. This is the kind of institutionalized and legalized bribery that’s almost never discussed — the corruption that’s responsible for high health care costs and poor health care outcomes in the U.S., and that has made it effectively impossible for lawmakers to rationally respond to the COVID-19 pandemic here and around the globe. As if to drive the problem home, within hours of releasing their corruption report, the Biden White House was flailing on TV trying to defend an overly complex COVID testing plan that will keep Americans paying inflated retail prices for at-home tests with the hope that their health insurer will agree to reimburse them at some later point. This plan is wildly impractical, but it would be a boon for the same testing manufacturer that just so happened to start paying Biden’s former top aide shortly after Biden was elected president.”

 

Insulin’s deadly cost: Ultrahigh prices in the U.S. mean many diabetics can’t afford the medication they need to survive

[Fortune, via Naked Capitalism 12-9-2021]

 

“Billionaire Koch-Backed Group Sues FTC Over Antitrust Enforcement” 

[Bloomberg, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 12-9-2021]

“A nonprofit backed by billionaire Charles Koch sued the U.S. Federal Trade Commission to obtain documents related to a series of policy changes that have been criticized by the country’s biggest business lobbying group as an attack on American companies. The Americans for Prosperity Foundation filed a complaint on Wednesday in federal court in Washington seeking an order requiring the FTC to produce records in response to a Freedom of Information Act request the group filed with the agency. ‘The FTC’s aggressive agenda on antitrust enforcement is out of step with mainstream legal thinking and is best regarded as anti-consumer, anti-innovation, and harmful to economic growth and prosperity,’ it said.”

Open Thread

Use the comments to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Elementary School Covid Outbreaks in Ontario

So, for a couple years now, almost, I’ve been warning about schools and Covid.

https://twitter.com/Billius27/status/1467528981754826755

In Ontario, teenagers can be vaccinated and children under 12 only became eligible November 24th.

Vaccines do reduce cases; children are not immune, and they do spread it to others.

Ontario’s overall policy has been deranged. Currently, large sporting events and casinos are operating. Before they were, R wasn’t over 1, now it is.


(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)


In any case, if you reside somewhere where children aren’t vaccinated and can reasonably, and you can legally keep your kids home, I’d do so unless the schools are properly ventilated (almost none of them are). Remember, again, that long-Covid is a thing, and could fuck you or someone you care about up for life, even if you don’t die from Covid.

Generally speaking, the most important thing is that Covid is airborne. Proper ventilation is a must. Buildings which just centrally recirculate air are delivering Covid directly to you, which is why most hotels aren’t a good place to quarantine people.

Personally, I’ve been keeping outside air circulation going where I live since Covid started, since otherwise I live in a central air building. Insufficient, but better than nothing.

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Be well and be safe.

 

 

Fundraising Update: Slow, But Hit a Tier

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We’ve raised $5,820. I am grateful to everyone who has given. The fundraiser is, however, going the slowest of any I’ve ever done, which I expect is because of Covid.

We’ve reached the first tier:

A longer article on the collapse of the USSR, putting everything I’m aware of together. In particular, I want to discuss the steps Gorbachev took which seem like either gross stupidity or intentional destruction. The fall of the Soviet Union was studied in great detail by the Chinese Communist Party, and has informed their actions since.

If you can afford to give, I’d definitely appreciate it. If you’re short on rent/food or medicine money, though, please don’t.

The next tier is $2,180 from here. That one is one I think is especially useful, and will build on the collapse of the USSR article.

A summary of world system analysis as practiced mainly by Immanuel Wallerstein, with a look at what it means for the future. World system analysis takes capitalism as a world system, and looks at how it has re-ordered the entire relationship of nations, subordinating them to its needs, though about five centuries. We can see clearly that most countries today are not sovereign, but subject to the system as a whole — this is true to some extent even of the hegemonic power, the US. Wallerstein thinks this world system is played out, and we’ll look at why. (Wallerstein, like Randall Collins, predicted the collapse of the USSR in advance, using his model, when almost all specialists in the USSR did not see it coming.)

After that, at $10K, is a look at the theory of revolutions, something rather…timely for us today, and which will grow even more so as climate change causes conditions to further deteriorate and populations and elite factions lose patience with the fumbling of elite consensus.

If you value my writing, please do give. It makes a big difference, both to me, and to my calculation of how much I should write in the future. Subscriptions count for 3X as much as donations, for reaching the various tiers.

Be well, and if you aren’t giving I hope it’s not because you can’t afford to.

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Under What Circumstances Is Russia Likely to Invade the Ukraine?

Back in 2008, I wrote that Russia would not allow Sevastapol, and thus Crimea, to slip from its grasp. At the time, that view was the decided minority — Russia had “too much to lose,” and I just didn’t understand Russia/European integration.

I’m less certain about the current situation, but as I see it there are two factors. Russia’s been very clear.

  1. Russia will invade the Ukraine rather than let it join NATO. This is the red line. Moscow is a lot harder to defend if troops start from the Ukraine.
  2. While Russia won’t invade only because if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline gets stopped, if that pipeline is decisively stopped, Russia loses a lot of its incentive to keep negotiating with the US and EU.

It should be pointed out, again (because people seem to forget), that Russia is still the World’s Number Two Nuclear Power. A war with Russia has a chance to escalate to apocalypse. To his credit, Biden has said the US will not fight a war over the Ukraine, but there are a lot of forces in the US that disagree. Biden is right (as he was about leaving Afghanistan), and they are wrong.


(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)


Russia is also powerful conventionally. Absent NATO intervention, the Ukraine is not going to win a war against Russia. It’s just that simple (and all this selling them military equipment will simply become a way to transfer that equipment to Russian hands if there’s an invasion), it’s not enough to tip the calculus of whether to go to war. No matter how much equipment gets sent, unless it’s nukes (which would trigger the aforementioned war, similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis almost did), Russia will still be able to crush the Ukrainian military.

Russia was promised, when the USSR broke up, that NATO would not expand past Germany. They feel betrayed; they feel this is a core interest, and they think that nations in their sphere of influence shouldn’t belong to an alliance whose purpose is to fight them (which is what NATO was created for).

I am, as I must tediously keep pointing out, not a fan of Putin, who has done great evil, and who has led Russia into a resource economy trap. But Russia is a great power, Ukraine was part of Russia for centuries, and it is in their sphere of influence. As for Putin, it must be understood that Russians are far better off under his leadership than they were before, and that US-led shock therapy causes catastrophic contraction (i.e., the population dropped because of all the deaths) when applied.

If the US and Europe had seriously wanted Russia as an ally, they wouldn’t have treated it not just as a conquered enemy, but as looting target and ideological straw man. If democracy and capitalism had been made to work for Russia as they were for Japan, Germany, South Korea, and Taiwan, then Russia today would be a sold Western ally, which is what Russians in the 90s mostly saw as the ideal outcome. They wanted to be Europeans.

Instead, Russia is a de-facto Chinese ally. From a geopolitical viewpoint, this is malpractice on a vast scale. China is the actual threat to American hegemony, not Russia, but Russia is important enough to matter — if allied with China. It removes an entire flank the Chinese would otherwise have had to guard against, and flips a powerful military ally to the other side.

Oh, and Taiwan? If there is a Russian war with the West, I’d expect the Chinese to  use that opportunity to force Taiwanese re-unification.

But, bottom line, I don’t think there will be a war unless the West gets very stupid. I could be wrong; there are people who think Putin believes the Ukraine must be re-integrated, whatever the cost, but I don’t see it. The damage to Russia would be too great from sanctions, loss of European markets, and having to fight a guerilla war.

Still, stupidity, on either side, can happen.

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Fred Hiatt and the Terrible Quandry of Elite Journalism

Younger readers may not remember the run-up to the Iraq war. It was a full-court push, with constant lies about Iraq’s “weapons of mass destruction,” and how Iraq was a threat to the US. The media went along with it, with almost no exceptions — and those exceptions paid the price; they were fired or demoted or, at best, their careers stalled.

Fred Hiatt, the Washington Post’s opinion editor just died, and the praise is flowing in, but Fred pushed the Iraq war, hard.

This is not to deny that he may have been a wonderful person to those who knew him — kind, funny, caring, and a good boss. But none of that matters to those killed, maimed, raped, tortured, or impoverished by the Iraq war and all that came from it, which includes ISIS.

To be clear, while there was a propaganda push, it was obvious at the time that it was based on lies. I knew it, and so did millions of others. Even at the time, if you read the stories carefully, it was clear they were bullshit, and that Iraq presented no threat to the US. Saddam was a bad guy, sure, but he wasn’t a threat to much of anyone but Iraqis, and, as events later proved, he was a lot less of a threat to them than what came from a US invasion.

The ostensible job of journalists is to tell the public the truth about important matters. That’s the headline job description, and I suspect most journalists at least began their careers believing it.

(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)

But freedom of the press, as in the famous quote, belongs to those who own them, and journalists work for people with agendas, and senior members are part of the elite themselves. It wasn’t always so, but the days of working class journalists are long gone.

So, when a big propaganda push happens, there’s always a quandary: Your own class and your boss want you to push it.

This leaves journalists, especially senior ones like Fred Hiatt, with three possibilities.

1. They can be stupid and believe the lies.

2. They know they are lies, but they also know that their real job is to repeat those lies, and if that means they contribute to mass death, rape, torture, and so on, well, that was the price of admission. In this case, they have become evil.

3. They tell the truth and are then punished. If, somehow, someone like this has managed to make it to a senior, important position, they lose it. But that’s rare, because you don’t get a job like Hiatt’s without having “made your bones.” Hiatt, a former foreign correspondent, would have spread lies many times before, proving he understood the real job.

So Fred may have been a mensch, but he was either an idiot or someone who used his position of power and influence to contribute to an act of great evil.

But, really, this isn’t about Fred Hiatt. He wasn’t unusual at all, he was straight-up normal for men and women in his position, in his profession. The New York Times pushed the war hard, so did all the networks, and so on. It was elite consensus, and nobody who doesn’t bow down to elite consensus gets the good jobs at an important newspaper or on TV. If they somehow slip through and finally draw a line, they are dealt with.

This means they have, virtually to a person, all sold their souls. They’re almost all evil — well over 90 percent. They’ve made the devil’s bargain of “I will help great evil succeed in exchange for prestige and wealth in this life.”

We’ve set the system up this way, yes, but understand that it isn’t just that the system makes people do this, it is that the people who are willing to do this are those the system selects and promotes. In this regard, they very much are like street gangs wherein to join, you have to murder someone. In journalism, you just have to lie about something that will get people killed or hurt. As a Federal Reserve banker, you just have to support policies you know will impoverish (and kill) millions of people. Etc.

Good people won’t do it, and even people who aren’t that good, but aren’t bad, will eventually find a line they won’t cross.

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Those people don’t make it to important positions, and that’s by design. The system runs on hurting people; Iraqis, Americans, whoever the people in power want to hurt. And if you want power and prestige in this society, you have to not just be cool with that, you must be willing to contribute.

 

Power, Pleasure, and Evil

I am human, and nothing human is alien to my consideration

– Publius Terentius Afer

Perhaps the most fundamental human experience is that of weakness. We are born completely helpless and our childhoods leave us at the mercy of other humans who are stronger and outnumber us. Everything we need, we must get from them, and there is little to nothing we can do to stop them if they choose to hurt us.

The physicist and physical therapist Feldenkrais wrote of being a child a seeing two men grab, kill, and butcher a small pig; almost exactly the same size as him. He realized he was defenseless, and spent decades trying to overcome that experience. He wrote a self-defense manual, figured out from first principles, and later he became the first western Judo black belt, before WWII, and when it was still a powerful combat art.

Even as adults, we know that there are many who are stronger than us, and society decides what we can and can’t do. This is more obvious to women, but even the strongest man knows he isn’t invincible. Most of us have to work for others, doing what they say, often on a minute-to-minute basis, and even those who escape close supervision still must please others for their daily bread. Few, indeed, are the genuine hermits.

(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)

And then there is the body, which so often betrays us with injury, illness, and pain. There is the mind, over which we have so little control: we have thoughts and emotions we’d rather not experience all the time, and often feel like our own minds and bodies are tyrants.

So, humans are weak, and we feel weak. We often deny this to ourselves, because feeling weak is awful, frightening. A full admission of how much is beyond our control means admitting we can die or be in horrible pain at any moment, and the most we can do is influence the odds of it happening. We can never rule something awful happening out entirely.

The feeling of power is thus one of the strongest feelings available to humans. I remember reading a review of a book by a torturer in the Lebanese civil war. He wrote that torturing people was the most intense experience he ever had; so intense, in fact, that it ruined everything else for him. Food was tasteless, even sex was meaningless. After the rush of power from torture, the ultimate violation of social norms and one of the ultimate expressions of control over another person, nothing else ever came close.

This may horrify you. Perhaps you think you would be different (though it is best to never find out, by never torturing), but I think that most people would find the same.

Now, torture is an obvious extreme, but it’s done all the time. It’s routine in prisons in most countries, police even in “civilized” countries regularly inflict beatings severe enough to qualify, and when the US officially tortured in the 2000s there was no punishment for it beyond rapping on the knuckles of a few low-level grunts. The most severe penalty anyone received was given to the CIA whistleblower who revealed the details of the CIA torture — not the people who perpetrated it or ordered it.

Power comes in gradations. There’s the simple bully, which we’ve all experienced, I think, as children. “Do what I say, or I’ll hurt you.” Most authority is ultimately based on this, including routine authority of parents, teachers, and bosses. If you think otherwise, do the thought experiments of what happens if you just refuse to do what people with power want you to.

When a bully pushes you around, they feel powerful. It’s a good feeling, it’s pleasant. If you say otherwise, you’re lying to yourself. You must understand how the world actually is, even if you personally don’t enjoy forcing other people to your will.

But schoolyard bullies or screaming bosses — or even muggers and serial killers — are the Deltas of the world of power. They’re nothing, insects.

Real power is what top-level politicians, generals, executives, and ritual leaders have. There was an Indian guru who told some of his male followers to castrate themselves. They did.

Then there’s political power. Bill Clinton cut welfare, passed a terrible prison bill, and did many other horrible things, and he was beloved by so many of those he hurt. Obama, the first Black president, was terrible for African Americans, but they love him anyway. Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s selfishness on staying on the Supreme Court when she was old and sick with cancer helped pave the way for the loss of abortion rights, but many women who support abortion rights consider her a hero.

George W. Bush sent the children of poor whites off to Iraq and Afghanistan to die, get PTSD, or get maimed, and the parents of those he sent and many of those he sent love him. Politicians, for generations, have pursued policies which impoverished 90 percent or so of Americans, and each of them was loved by millions.

Power is hurting someone, and having them love you anyway. Power is “believe me, not your lying eyes.” The sheer rush of being Clinton, Obama, or Bush and crushing your supporters — hurting them terribly, and having them worship you; this is pleasure.

Don’t think that they don’t get off on it. Don’t think they don’t enjoy it. Bush had brain damage by the time he was President (listen to him talk in ’92, then in ’02), but all three men were smart, and Clinton and Obama were borderline geniuses. They knew what they were doing; they knew who they were hurting.

And those people loved them for it.

That’s power. And for some people, that’s pleasure. They do it because they enjoy doing it.

Then there’s the executives. The ones who raise insulin prices so high that thousands die. They know. They know they’re killing you. They like it. They have that power, and even as you’re dying, begging for insulin money (or cancer money, or whatever) online, they’re laughing, because they know you’re powerless and will do nothing to hurt them, even while they kill  you.

Power. Pleasure. The groveling of the weak before the strong.

If someone does something and doesn’t actually need to do it to survive, they do it because they want to. When a very rich person decides to kill thousands to millions of people to get more money, they’re doing it because they like it. When Jeff Bezos treats Amazon workers like animals, having ambulances parked outside to take the fallen away, he does it because he wants to.

We humans are weak. The feeling of power is one of the ultimate experiences, and power over other humans, animals, and the world (destroying the world for money, knowingly) is pleasurable for a lot of people. It isn’t just that they don’t care, it’s that they like it.

Now, despite everything, power isn’t innately evil. It can be used for good, and there are cases and times when it has been. It’s been hard to do so for most of human history since the advent of agriculture, because we set up systems that incentivized cruelty, in which more cruelty led to more power. Capitalism is almost explicitly such a system, and certainly agrarian civilizations were almost uniformly evil, with few exceptions.

But power can be used for good, and you can get as much pleasure from using your power to help others as you can from using it to hurt people. I suspect there is even more pleasure, honestly. I think Obama, who had the opportunity to be the next FDR (who did some evil, but much more good), was a fool to choose the pleasures of elite regard and cruelty over what would have been a vast tide of love and loyalty from the majority of Ameircans.

We’ll talk about that in a followup piece.

But for now,  you’re ruled by evil people who hurt you because they like how it feels.

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 5, 2021

by Tony Wikrent

The pandemic and (de)population policy

Background: Henry Kissinger’s December 1974 National Security Study Memorandum 200, Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for U.S. Security and Overseas Interests (NSSM 200)

“Omicron’s Message”

[Nonzero, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 12-2-2021]

“[T]he acceleration of global vaccination… is something the world’s most powerful leaders aren’t focused on. If they were focused on it, we’d be seeing the unfolding of a project that looked something like this: (1) loosening the intellectual property rights enjoyed by vaccine makers; (2) compelling them to share the know-how that would allow factories around the world to take advantage of this loosening and ramp up vaccine production; and (3) making sure, with subsidies if necessary, that (a) the vaccine makers who thus sacrifice profits are rewarded amply enough to preserve their incentive to innovate; and (b) the newly abundant vaccines are inexpensive, especially in low-income countries. So incompetent are the world’s leaders that they can’t even get to step 1 of this project.”

Lambert Strether: “Incompetence is the charitable explanation.” 

 

2.5 Million Nurses Demand UN Probe Into ‘Covid-19 Criminals’ Blocking Patent Waiver

[Common Dreams, via Naked Capitalism 11-29-2021]

More than two million nurses from 28 countries across the globe filed a complaint Monday calling on the United Nations to investigate the rich countries that are blocking a proposed patent waiver for coronavirus vaccines, an appeal that came as public health experts raced to understand the newly detected Omicron variant.

In a detailed letter addressed to Dr. Tlaleng Mofokeng, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Physical and Mental Health, dozens of nursing unions noted that “the end of this pandemic is nowhere in sight” as “Covid-19 cases continue to soar in numerous parts of the world, while pharmaceutical companies and governments have failed to ensure that critical treatments and vaccines are distributed equitably in order to respond to the pandemic.”

 

[Twitter, via Naked Capitalism 11-30-2021]

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