Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

A Brief Summary of the Effects of Russia Sanctions

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On April 14, 2022

15 Comments

Let’s put it all together, sanctions will:

1) Make Europeans worse off.

2) Not overthrow Putin.

3) End the dollar as universal reserve currency.

4) Not save Ukraine.

5) Kill millions in the global south.

6) Not appreciably affect the Ukraine War.

7) also increase political instability in dozens of countries, including in Europe.

8) Badly damage European manufacturing, making Europe weaker.

9) Lock Russia into alliance with China, solving most of China’s major resource problems and securing its western flank.

As Talleyrand said, “This (the sanctions) is worse than a crime, it is a mistake.” Especially for Europeans. To be fair, the US gets to sell Euros over-priced gas, and lock them in as military and economic satrapies. Might be worth losing dollar hegemony.

Although, I can’t see how fixing almost all of China’s major economic weaknesses for them is good move for a US which thinks that China is the real enemy. And that’s what this level of Russia sanctions has done.

Truly amazing.

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Accountability #2: Sweden’s Decision to Let Old People Die Who Could Have Been Saved

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On April 13, 2022

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So, Nature has put out a report on how Sweden’s herd immunity policy worked.

It didn’t. Herd immunity isn’t possible with Covid, more people died in Sweden per capita than almost any other country,

I suggest reading the summary, but I want to highlight one part:

Thousands died in Sweden because the state chose not to provide adequate care. Infected elders were given morphine instead of oxygen, even though the system had plenty of oxygen. The Nature report adds that “very few elderly have been hospitalized for COVID-19. Appropriate (potentially life-saving) treatment was withheld without medical examination, and without informing the patient or his/her family or asking permission.” The state even denied the right of infected elders to seek a medical assessment on their condition. Physicians examined less than one-tenth of COVID patients. Many were given morphine and “end of life treatment” without a positive COVID test.

This is mass murder. It is not triage. In triage, you choose the people most likely to survive because you don’t have enough resources to save them all. But Sweden had oxygen and chose to administer morphine, or it chose to not even examine old people with symptoms and treat them, either in hospital or out, with anything but morphine.

Murder. Mass murder. Some have called it eugenics, because, clearly, Sweden decided that the lives of old people didn’t matter.

Every politician and public servant involved in this decision, and probably every doctor who went along with it, should go to prison for life. They are mass murderers. They let people die, who, just by giving them correct medical care, could have lived.

This is an extreme example, but it is the extreme at the end of the standard Covid policy spectrum in most of the developed world, where people could have been saved, but our elites chose not to do so. We refused to admit Covid was airborne for ages, we locked down too late, we did not improve indoor ventilation, we did not get people to wear masks soon enough, and we didn’t mandate N95 masks (which are more effective), we let ICUs get filled more than once, we did not track and trace, we did not isolate, we did not properly shut down international travel (the most important step), and so on.

But Sweden went one extra step, and deliberately let people die whom they could have saved if they’d simply given them oxygen. Swedish officials knew they could have saved those people and didn’t.

The only high profile criminal act that is worse is New York Governor Cuomo sending infected patients to old folks homes, thus killing swathes of old people who would never have been infected otherwise. (Cuomo, of course, has never been indicted for his mass murder, and he never will be.)

Your elites kill you. I can only assume they like killing you.

And because we aren’t rising up in revolution (and the freaks who are protesting seem to be saying “Kill us faster, please, masters!”), I can only assume we are okay with this.

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Is Putin Conducting a “Stalinist” Purge of Russia’s Intelligence Service?

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On April 12, 2022

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I find this story says more about the West than it does about Russia:

A “Stalinist” mass purge of Russian secret intelligence is under way after more than 100 agents were removed from their jobs and the head of the department responsible for Ukraine was sent to prison.

In a sign of President Putin’s fury over the failures of the invasion, about 150 Federal Security Bureau (FSB) officers have been dismissed, including some who have been arrested.

All of those ousted were employees of the Fifth Service. This a division was created in 1998, when Putin was director of the FSB. It’s purpose was to carry out operations in former Soviet Union countries with the single aim of keeping them within Russia’s orbit.

Now, when Stalin purged the secret police, the party, or military, he purged based on perceived loyalty — as well as to get rid of people who were too popular or powerful, and whom he thus regarded as a threat. It’s generally conceded that Stalin’s military leadership purges were part of why the Red Army was, at first, defeated badly by the Wehrmacht.

Does this describe what Putin is doing?

It’s possible, of course, that these officers tried to tell Putin the truth about Ukrainian ability to resist, and Putin wouldn’t listen. But isn’t it also reasonable to think that, if Russia had expected significantly less resistance from Ukraine’s military than what they actually encountered, it is because that’s what the intelligence service told Putin and the military command? So couldn’t this be Putin getting rid of those secret agents who screwed up, and is, therefore, appropriate? And given that thousands of Russian soldiers have died, in large part due to faulty intelligence, and Russia’s position in the world has been damaged, is it not appropriate for the head of the responsible division to go to prison? (Though, he’s been officially accused of corruption, not incompetence.)

Who was fired because of incompetence in Iraq or Afghanistan? What intelligence agents or generals were let go because they made predictions which did not come true? Would the US be better off if those who kept saying that victory in Afghanistan was just around the corner had been fired or even court-martialed?

The West has such a culture of impunity for elite incompetence that elites think that whenever elites are fired or punished for anything it’s “Stalinist.”

Likewise, during the war, we’ve had reports of a number of Russian general dying in combat. Western commenters were aghast, but shouldn’t generals be close enough to the front lines to be in some danger? Isn’t that, actually, good leadership practice?

Russia has serious problems with how it is run; if Russia doesn’t fix its corruption and demographic issues, I think it will fall out of the “Great Power” category in time. But I also posit that Putin holding important people to account for their failures is a positive sign, not a negative one.

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Macron (Radical Neoliberal) vs. Le Pen (Reactionary Fascist) in France

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On April 11, 2022

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So, this is probably the best commentary on why it’s close:

https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1512489172090585094

The current French retirement age is 62. Macron has said that, if re-elected, he will increase it to 65. Le Pen will decrease it to 60.

France has a run-off system. The top two candidates are pitted against each other in the second round. In the first round, results were approximately as follows:

Note that Jean-Luc Melenchon, the left-wing candidate, was less than three percent behind Le Pen.

Melenchon’s policies?

His manifesto includes lowering the age of retirement, hiking the minimum wage, and freezing food and fuel prices.

As a public denouncer of the free-market economy, Mr. Melenchon advocates “state intervention in the economy” to spread wealth, guaranteeing what he calls a “dignified life for all workers.” He told a campaign rally in Paris he would heavily tax the wealthy.

…

Mr. Melenchon said: “The free market, as you see, is chaos. Another world is possible.”

If he takes office, Mr. Melenchon hopes to pass a “social emergency law” as soon as possible, which would increase the minimum wage to €1,400 per month (from €1,269.03 at present) and cap salary differences between workers and CEOs at one to 20.

He pledged to enforce greater controls on the movement of capital, and guaranteed jobs for the long-term unemployed.

He also announced plans to give 800,000 public sector workers on temporary contracts a permanent tenure – as well as plans to prevent top companies listed on the French stock exchange from paying dividends.

He wants to lower the retirement age in France from 62 to 60, unlike Mr. Macron who currently wants to raise it to 65 to “balance the pension bill.”

As a keen proponent of mass wealth redistribution, Mr. Melenchon also wants to boost the capital gains tax up to the same level as income tax and introduce a progressive corporate tax, as well as seize inheritances greater than €12 million.

That’s a very left-wing program in the current context.

Meanwhile, as John Nichols points out:

If supporters of the French Socialist, Communist, Trotskyist, and Green parties had backed left-wing presidential candidate Melenchon, he would not merely have beaten Le Pen. Melanchon would have finished in first place, ahead of Macron.

So, because the left won’t cooperate with each other, they have wasted a good chance of a real-left wing government, and the French are now forced to choose between a nativist fascist (who, among other things, would not allow single women to have in vitro fertilizations), and an arch-neoliberal who wants to make everyone but the rich poorer.

Neoliberals have wanted to cut pensions for ages (true also in the US and almost everywhere else), so Macron is making the bet that people will hold their noses and vote for him, rather than for Le Pen. But the swing is five years; if Macron wins, you retire at 65, while if LaPen wins you retire at 60.

Strangely enough, old people prefer Macron, and young people prefer Le Pen:

Which is to say the strategy of forcing votes against the reactionary right-winger will work, until it doesn’t. Polls suggest it will work, again, this time, but polls have often been wrong in such close cases, and polls suggest it won’t keep working.

The Left will have one more chance to get its act together before the next election. It had best take that chance. Fortunately, Le Pen’s economic  policies are foolish and won’t entirely work (not because of the pension age, but because she still wants to make the rich, richer), but once reactionaries get in power, they tend to use their power to crush the Left.

France is one of the few places in the “developed” world where the Left still stands a good chance of getting into power. Once they do, if they run the economy well (which will be easy, because the world order which made it impossible is dying), then they can create generational change and lock in left-wing politics for 30 to 50 years.

If they don’t, however, the Right will set the new ideological terms.

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 10, 2022

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On April 10, 2022

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by Tony Wikrent

Strategic Political Economy

Jerks

Michael Brenner [Consortium News, via Naked Capitalism 4-9-2022].

…it is manifestly obvious that our society is not capable of conducting an honest, logical, reasonably informed discourse on matters of consequence. Instead, we experience fantasy, fabrication, fatuousness and fulmination.  At a more personal level, this impression is reinforced by messages from persons whom I’ve known and respected telling me that I’m in the pay of Russian President Vladimir Putin, “mad,” “too clever by half,”

…Third, it is self-evident that our national leaders, elected or appointed, are equally incapable of sober deliberation, of intellectual honesty (with themselves as well as us), of elementary logic, even of acknowledging factual realities. Consequently, the resulting behavior defies rational analysis.

NATO to target China – Stoltenberg 

[RT, via Naked Capitalism 4-6-2022]

The West is losing its mind:

NATO plans to deepen its cooperation with partners in Asia as a response to a rising “security challenge” coming from China, which refuses to condemn Russia’s ongoing military operation in Ukraine, the US-led bloc’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg revealed during a press conference on Tuesday.

Bill Clinton: “I Tried to Put Russia on Another Path”

Bill Clinton [[The Atlantic, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 4-8-2022]

“I did everything I could to help Russia make the right choice and become a great 21st-century democracy.”

Comments were savagely on target:

Darthbobber April 8, 2022 at 4:11 pm

Clinton makes it all the way through that Russia screed without so much as mentioning the October ’93 Russian constitutional crisis, the shelling of parliament, suppression of the opposition press, end of the independence of the high court. Or of our considerable efforts at reelecting Yeltsin under-err–less than democratic conditions.

Sacrificing the fledgeling democracy of the Gorbachev constitution on the altar of shock therapy was pretty decisive in terms of Russia’s evolution since, also in terms of creating the oligarchs in the first place. Odd how none of this is worth even a passing mention. Priorities, I guess.

40 Years of the Reagan Revolution’s Libertarian Experiment Have Brought Us Crisis & Chaos

[Hartmann Report, via The Big Picture 4-3-2022]

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Open Thread

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On April 9, 2022

9 Comments

Use comments to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

The US. Europe, China And the New Poorer Western World

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On April 7, 2022

27 Comments

February 23rd: Russia invades the Ukraine. The Western world responds with massive sanctions, which it hopes China will cooperate with.

Five days later, February 28th, Reuters: “U.S. President Joe Biden will send a delegation of former senior defense and security officials to Taiwan on Monday, a senior official of his administration said, a sign of support for the island claimed by China after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

February 28th:

https://twitter.com/Tom_Fowdy/status/1498486494599983105

Meanwhile:

A new data-rich report by the National Science Foundation (NSF) confirms China has overtaken the United States as the world’s leader in several key scientific metrics, including the overall number of papers published and patents awarded.

(The history of scientific leadership is that it moves to where the manufacturing is, with a time delay. This was true of Britain and the US in the 19th century. Britain maintained its advantage in science for about 30 years after America became the greatest manufacturing power.)

March 19th: This tweet was re-tweeted by Zhang Meifang, Consul General of China in Belfast:

March 4th:

March 17th:

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1504324316376166406

April 6th: Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, to visit Taiwan in first such trip in 25 years.

“Do as we say, or we’ll hurt you” seems to be the primary American “diplomatic” method.

Is it working? Well, sanctions have never removed a single government, but then, that probably wasn’t their point: they were done for the same reason countries use torture. The message of torture is “we torture people.” It’s intended to instill fear in others so they won’t oppose you. Same with sanctions.

But this time countries outside the West aren’t going along with US sanctions, they’re doing what they can to build to alternative financial routes to continue trading with Russia, and this is especially true of China.

The Liu Xing tweet is probably the most important one: “Can you help me fight your friend so that I can concentrate on fighting you later?”

This is how China must see American diplomacy. America slapped on tariffs and sanctions under Trump, never removed them on Biden, is crossing China’s reddest of red lines (Taiwan) and continues to make threats. It’s never “we’ll reward you for helping us” it’s always “do what we say or we’ll hurt you.”

Meanwhile Europe has become an American satrapy. When re-arming they have chosen to buy American weapons. Buying American natural gas to replace Russian will mean a price increase of about 30%, which will hammer European industry, making chunks of un-competitive, and will increase political instability in European countries, and as Arnaud Bertrand insightfully notes:

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1507579394813952001

AI is driven by how much data you have. The EU has handed its data over to the US, without getting data in return, and also given up its digital sovereignty; its right to determine its own digital policies.

April 1st:

The EU told Beijing during the virtual summit with Li and Xi not to allow Moscow to circumvent Western sanctions imposed over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“We called on China to help end the war in Ukraine. China cannot turn a blind eye to Russia’s violation of international law,” European Council President Charles Michel told a news briefing with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after the first EU-China summit since Dec. 30, 2020…

…Von der Leyen said Beijing needed to defend the international order that has made China the world’s second-largest economy. The West says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a violation of the United Nations charter.

“It is a defining moment because nothing will be like it was before the war. It’s now a question to take a very clear stance to support and defend the rules-based order,” she said.

Imagine China’s surprise that Europe, who did nothing about Iraq and who had members involved in taking out Libya, among many other crimes, is concerned with the “rules based order” and against invasions of other countries. No one can take this seriously: it is a clear case of “it’s OK when we and our allies do it.”

(Among other things, Saudi Arabia is currently peeling off a piece of Yemen.)

In the past two months, Europe has managed to:

1) cement its status as an American vassal;

2) savagely damage its own economy.

3) increase LaPen’s chance of being the next French leader.

It’s hard to be more incompetent than American leaders, but EU leaders have managed it.

As for the West in general, they have managed to cement a Russia/China alliance, by repeatedly threatening China and crossing the Taiwan line. India is supporting Russia more than the US. Imran Khan, in Pakistan, is running his election campaign based on “we are not the West’s slaves and will not sanction Russia.” Most of the global South has refused to sanction Russia. A new payments system is being created, threatening US dollar hegemony. Americans and Europeans can expect even more inflation than before. Anti-Russia sanctions plus the war will cause famines and hunger in many countries, increasing political instability.

For years I have been predicting a new Cold War. This is the precipitating event and I am almost certain that future historians will see it as such.

The West is not the presumptive winner of this new cold war. We are not the stronger side, in real economic terms (do not use GDP, it is artificially inflated, especially in the financialized West.)

Welcome to the future.

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Simple Ethics For Groups And Individuals

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On April 6, 2022

16 Comments

The simplest thing we require in the social world, after food, water and shelter, is safety. Without safety, everything else is precarious and to live in constant fear destroys people’s psyches and health.

The basic rules required for a safe group are as follows.

First: each individual must not prey on others. Under no circumstances must they hurt another person or take from them just because they are weak and they can.

Second: anyone who does prey on others must be removed from the group. This may mean ostracism; it may mean confinement; or it may mean death.

Anyone who will prey on someone else who is weak, just because they are weak is a threat to you. One day you will be weaker than them, and if you have something they want they will take it. That could mean theft, violence or rape.

Whenever you encounter a predator or abuser, they are someone you cannot and should not trust. They have already said what they are, the only question is who they will do it to.

There are some complexities to this, mostly to do with “property” and “accumulation.” In a good society, the only time anyone would go hungry or without shelter is if there wasn’t enough, and only in cases where there was not enough would those who can “work” be prioritized. (Working means creating that which people need. Wall street jobs are almost all predator jobs.) In a vast surplus world like our current world, there is no reason for everyone not to fed, have a home and medical care.

People who have way more than they need while others don’t have enough are predators: abusers who prey on the weak. We have built up entire ideologies about why this OK, the most recent of which is modern capitalism.

Basically, you can’t, ever, tolerate predators or predation. Predation includes every job which preys on other people: health insurance in the US; most pharma jobs (except creating the drugs, and even many of those, since they create palliatives rather than cures in most cases), most financial jobs, almost all lobbying, the vast majority of the military-industrial complex and almost all “intellegence” agency jobs.

It is less important that everyone work, than that jobs be positive sum: creating more than they destroy, which includes not destroying the environment. It is better that a million people are supported, doing nothing, than that Jamie Dimon has a job.

The worst predators in most societies are the very rich and politicians. They kill and impoverish the most people with their actions and inactions, and they work for other predators.

Again:

First: each individual must not prey on others. Under no circumstances must they hurt another person or take from them just because they are weak and they can.

Second: anyone who does prey on others must be removed from the group. This may mean ostracism; it may mean confinement; or it may mean death.

These rules and guidelines may seem to be about ethics, but they are also the only way to create good prosperous societies and groups which last, which aren’t “suckers” (no violence ever) and which last. Any society or group which tolerates predators is eventually taken over by them, and any “prosperity” built in such ways is built on blood, bones and misery, and will eventually be lost.

Anyone who preys on others, will prey on you if they decide they can get away with it and your misery or death will benefit them.

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