Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 16, 2023

by Tony Wikrent

Climate and environmental crises

How an Early Oil Industry Study Became Key in Climate Lawsuits

[Yale Environment 360, via The Big Picture 4-9-2023]

For decades, 1960s research for the American Petroleum Institute warning of the risks of burning fossil fuels had been forgotten. But two papers discovered in libraries are now playing a key role in lawsuits aimed at holding oil companies accountable for climate change.

The thread that ties the recent chemical spills together

[Vox, via The Big Picture 4-9-2023]

The growing oil and gas industry means more incidents like East Palestine.

Inside the battle over who gets to build the grid of the future 

[Minnesota Reformer, via Naked Capitalism 4-11-2023]

The U.S. Department of Energy issued a draft report in February that found a “pressing need” for new electric transmission infrastructure across the country to improve reliability, connect a rapidly growing number of solar, wind and battery storage projects, supply increasing electric demand and alleviate scattered pockets of consistently high prices across the country.

To meet the future envisioned by the federal infrastructure act and the Inflation Reduction Act, which both contain major provisions to boost clean energy, the country needs to increase its current transmission system by an eye-popping 57% by 2035, the report says. Princeton University’s Net-Zero America study estimates expanding transmission capacity by 60% by 2030 will cost $330 billion and tripling it by 2050 will cost $2.2 trillion.

But in some states, bills that have been pushed by utilities to give them exclusive or preferential treatment for building regional transmission lines, called “right-of-first-refusal” laws, mean customers might pay more than they should for all those wires and towers, critics say.

War

The coming war on China: the real target are the American people 

Alex Krainer, April 15, 2023 [sott.net]

Empire’s proxy war on Russia is rapidly coming to a head in Ukraine and the imperial guard might urgently need a new war. Their next target is China and once more we witness a relentless escalation of provocations and hostility. In his Wall Street Journal column this week, former National Security Advisor John Bolton laid out his “grand strategy” to confront Russia and China. His genius idea is to give Taiwan “much more military aid” from western nations and “embed Taipei into collective-defense structures.”

Bolton’s warmongering is only the last in the long sequence of proclamations by US officials indicating the direction of their foreign policy. Last month, U.S. Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth told an audience at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) that the United States has “to prepare, to be prepared to fight and win that war” against China. This is not just idle talk: they really are preparing.
On Sunday, 10 January, Lieutenant General James Bierman, the commanding general of the Third Marine Expeditionary Force gave an interview to the Financial Times in which he said that his command is working hard to replicate the empire’s military success (!) in Ukraine. Bierman explained that the US and its allies in Asia were recreating the groundwork that had enabled western countries to support Ukraine’s resistance to Russia in preparing for scenarios such as Chinese invasion of Taiwan….

America faces a two-front war: Russia-China alliance moving ahead at great speed [Kissinger’s worst nightmare]

Gilbert Doctorow [via Mike Norman Economics, April 14, 2023]

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Feinstein And the Ginsburg Betrayal

So then:

Feinstein, who was hospitalized in early March for shingles and has remained in her San Francisco home since March 7, has missed 60 votes of the 82 taken in the Senate in 2023…

…Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said on Monday that Feinstein’s absence from the Senate—and the Judiciary Committee specifically—will impede Democrats’ ability to confirm judicial nominees.

“I can’t consider nominees in these circumstances, because a tie vote is a losing vote in committee,”…

…Feinstein announced she won’t seek reelection in 2024 as a handful of Democratic House members vie for her seat. But she intends to serve out the rest of her term, which is set to end in January 2025.

Ginsburg had cancer. It was a type of cancer which was almost always fatal. She refused to step down from the Supreme Court when a Democratic president could easily appoint her successor, and as a result the Democrats lost a court seat. Ginsburg was looked up to by liberal women, but she betrayed them, though most can’t see past their hero worship to recognize that.

Feinstein is in a similar position: shingles isn’t the real issue, she has dementia and everyone know it. If she cared about the interests of her constituents she would step down immediately so that judges could be appointed and laws passed which need her support. It’s not that she’s a good Senator, she’s voted for a lot of crap, but Democratic appointed judges tend to be better than Republican appointed judges and the difference is important.

Given how bad her dementia appears to be it may be that this isn’t mostly on her: it could be her circle who are keeping her in. If so, they’re the one’s betraying, though she did pick them before age took its toll.

A leader who puts themselves first is not a leader, just someone looking out for themselves.


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The US Appears To Be On The Road To Civil War

The simple history of the pre-Civil War era in the US is that the slave states wanted the non slave states to return escaped slaves to them. The free states did not want to do that, and it eventually led to war.

There is something similar going on in the US today. Anti-abortion/Anti-Trans states are making it illegal for people to go to other states for abortions or trans related medical care. Part of the mechanic of that was punishing people who helped slaves.

And here we are today:

A law to protect providers and patients in Washington from out-of-state lawsuits for providing reproductive and gender-affirming care passed out of the state’s Senate Monday and now heads to Gov. Jay Inslee’s desk for his signature.

The so-called Shield Law will prohibit out-of-state subpoenas and criminal investigations that seek information related to abortion and reproductive healthcare services. It will also make it so the governor cannot extradite any person for out-of-state charges related to reproductive healthcare services and will protect healthcare service providers from harassment for providing protected services.

The next step will be to refuse to allow police to execute out of state subpoenas for laws relating to abortion and trans-care. In other words, to protect those fleeing to free states. This is a direct violation of the Constitution as I understand it and indicates the union is no longer working.

This is related to the current jurisdiction shopping where anti-abortion forces are using rulings by local justices in Republican to enact nationwide bans on abortificants, again imposing red-state law on blue states (though they would say this is turnaround.)

The step after that is either succession or war.

Honestly, If it doesn’t divide the country in half (as in separate the coasts) I’d consider allowing succession (though I suppose a bi-coastal “blue” America could ship thru Canada.)

Take this seriously. It doesn’t have to lead to war, but it is a very bad sign.


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China Helps Bring An End To Yemen War

So, back on March 16th I wrote an article about the Chinese brokered Iran-Saudi Arabia peace deal. At the end of the article I wrote:

I am most interested to see if this will mean some sort of peace can be worked out in Yemen, or if it means the Iranians will abandon the Houthis, which would be sad.

Turns out peace with Yemen was almost certainly part of the deal:

Saudi Arabia has decided to end the war in Yemen . A Saudi delegation will travel to Sana’a next week to conclude an agreement with Yemen, Reuters reported

I suppose it’s a little early to be sure the war will end, but it seems very likely and this wouldn’t have happened without China. The US helped Saudi Arabia bomb the hell out of Yemen and cause a massive famine: China helped bring peace.

This is part of a massive realignment happening right now.

The number of states that are planning to join BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) increased significantly last year, about 20 countries want to join…

…

Among them are Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and a number of other African countries.

China will now be the most important member of the most important economic organizations in the world, other than the WTO and perhaps the IMF, though the IMF is going to be increasingly sidelined, because loans from the IMF always come with horrible conditions and more and more there will be other alternatives.

China is the biggest trade partner for almost every nation in Africa and South America already, so this realignment only makes sense. Those expecting the US to remain the center of the economic world when it was no longer the most important economy in the world were always fools.

I suspect a some of this is also due to freeing up Russian gas and oil for sale to non-European buyers. Again, the locus moves away from the West to the non-West.

China may not be the most important country in the world yet, but it’s only a matter of time absent war or some catastrophe stopping them. None of the countries joining ever liked America and China just offers a better deal on almost everything from loans to goods to IP.

The sun is near the horizon for the American Empire as world hegemon and the opposing bloc in the new bipolar world will be economically stronger than America’s bloc.


The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

 

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 9, 2023

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 9, 2023

by Tony Wikrent

 

Assange​​​​​​​: Ithaka, Revisited 

Scott Ritter [via Naked Capitalism 4-5-2023] Important.

 

Strategic Political Economy

Life Expectancy in USA, by zip code

[Twitter, via Naked Capitalism 4-3-2023]

.

U.S. share of world wheat production hit record low in 2022 

[Investigate Midwest, via Naked Capitalism 4-2-2023]

 

The carnage of mainstream neoliberal economics

Fiscal policy can always protect employment, incomes and business solvency if there is political will 

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics completely unrelated to recent posts.

Some Acts Are Always Evil

This is a post a lot of readers will misunderstand or refuse to understand, because our society requires us to do evil regularly and we want to pretend it isn’t evil.

Some acts are always evil.

To understand this you need to make the correct division between an act and the consequences of that act.

The act and the consequences are two different things.

Let’s take something which is, I hope, universally agreed among my readers. Rape is always evil. It is always an evil act. Even if someone comes up with a convoluted scenario under which some good came as a consequence rape is always an evil act.

We start here to show something simple: that some acts are evil.

This is necessary because our society has gone too far in cultural determinism. “Evil and good are completely social constructs.”

No. They are human, but they are not constructs. We understand that slavery is an evil act. We understand that murder is an evil act. We understand that torture is an evil act.

It may be that on some occasions the results of an evil act are good, but that does not make the act itself good. I don’t believe in torture for getting information, but even if it did work, torturing someone to get information which saves people is still an evil act. The act is evil, even if the consequences are good.

In debt-slavery, common in the ancient world, you would sell yourself into slavery to settle your debts and get money. Let us say you did so and it saved your family from starvation because master now feeds you and your family.

The slavery is still evil, even if some of the consequences of it are not.

This is at the heart of just war theory. All wars are evil. There are no exceptions. Sometimes the consequences of war are better than not fighting the war. That does not, however, make the war itself not evil. (I can think of very few wars which were worth the evil of the war itself. WWII is the only recent major example.)

Some years ago I wrote an article on what the Tao teaches those who want a better world.

I’m going to quote it at length here:

In the Tao Te Ching there is a famous passage, as follows:

When a truly kind man does something, he leaves nothing undone.
When a just man does something, he leaves a great deal to be done.
When a disciplinarian does something and no one responds,
He rolls up his sleeves in an attempt to enforce order

Therefore when Tao is lost, there is goodness.
When goodness is lost, there is kindness.
When kindness is lost, there is justice.
When justice is lost, there is ritual.
Now ritual is the husk of faith and loyalty, the beginning of confusion.

What is appropriate isn’t always what is good, but what is good makes up the vast majority of what is appropriate.

When one no longer knows what is appropriate, one devolves to the good and is still doing most of what should be done.

Kindness makes up most of what is good, so when one loses what is good, one devolves to kindness and retains most of what is good.

Losing kindness, one retreats to justice. The loss here is steep. Justice is maybe half of what is kind, because justice without kindness is about balance and tends to not restore people, but punish them: “an eye for an eye” and all that.

And then there is ritual, and ritual, in this context, is without any of the higher virtues, and thus leads to injustice, cruelty and evil, because it has lost almost all of appropriateness: it simply accepts that action A should lead to action B, and that will often be the wrong action, unguided by appropriateness, goodness, kindness or even justice.

I would add that when even ritual is lost; when people no longer obey the rules and are guided by no sense of ethics, that all chances of a good society and good results are lost.

The problem with “ends justify means” is that means are most of what we do. If you do evil acts all day, all week, all year, all life because they are part of how your society runs, then the amount of evil you do usually overwhelms all the “consequences”. This is why only someone who “has the Tao” should ever do evil, and since 99.9999% of us don’t have the Tao and don’t have the judgment to know when evil is justified, we should avoid evil actions like the plague. Certainly our leaders, who are the worst of us, shouldn’t be allowed to do evil.

But that’s consequence talk. You don’t not do evil acts because of the consequences, you don’t do them because they are evil. If you start engaging too much in consequence talk, then pretty soon you’re justifying all sorts of evil action.

Don’t rape. It’s always evil, no matter who does it or why. Don’t mistake whether an act is evil and with the questions “are the consequences of this act evil or good.”

And tamp down your social constructivism and moral relativism. Some things are always wrong.


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