Saudi Arabia made a major counter-offensive against Ansar-Allah with mercenaries. It took a bit of ground, and is now being pushed back hard.

No one with sense is surprised. The Yemenis are far tougher than mercenaries or any Saudi troops, which are an international joke.

Now:

The Sauds started all this by attacking Ansar-Allah’s capital airport. The Houthis hit back and told them for peace they had to stop all attacks and end their decade long blockade, which has killed hundreds of thousand of people.

Back in the 1920s the Sauds took two provinces, Najran and Asir from Yemen. Mohammed Bin Salman better hope that’s all they take away from him because unless either Turkey or Pakistan are willing to commit a large ground force, I don’t think the Sauds can defeat Ansar-Allah.

And while the Sauds were able to get oil flowing thru the pipeline that was taken out earlier faster than most of us, myself included, expected, it doesn’t really matter. An Aramco refinery was hit yesterday, which is actually even worse, since it’s distillates like diesel, jet fuel and bunker fuel (used by large ships) which is in short supply.

Meanwhile even for crude, ignore the futures prices, and check the spot. Here’s the spread:

Futures markets have been highly manipulated, but the spot is the actual price. Nor can I see any likelihood that spot oil or distillate prices will be cheaper in a month, Iran has been hitting tankers hard, and unlike before they’re aiming to do serious damage to them, not just disable them.

MBS is the worst leader Saudi Arabia has ever had. Like Trump, he just can’t conceive that he should make peace. He’s got a crap army, the US is now helping somewhat but is overstretched and his only hope is Turkey and Pakistan.

If he’s not lucky he may be Saudi Arabia’s last leader. Very few people will miss the House of Saud.

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