1) 2013 will be ugly. If Obama wins he will stop pandering to progressives and liberals. Since he never has to be reelected again, he will be even worse than he was 2009-2011. If you want anything from Obama, anything, get it before the election, do not believe promises, do not accept promises, accept cash only. If Romney or Gingrich wins, well, it’s not going to be any better. SOPA and PIPA will be back in 2013 in some form, so will the pipeline enviros think they’ve killed.
2) Fracking is coming, bigtime, to somewhere near you. Full steam ahead in 2013. Bend over and kiss your groundwater goodbye. This is a bipartisan, transnational consensus.
3) The Iran oil embargo is going to cause an economic clusterfuck if it actually happens. Oil will go up at least $20. The world (and US) economy can’t take that.
4) Europe’s austerity hasn’t worked. It won’t work. It can’t work. At least if by “work” one means “produce growth and help ordinary people.” However, it will continue full speed ahead, because Eurocrats don’t give one goddamn about European citizens, only about themselves, and they know Euros aren’t going to impose a personal cost on Eurocrats.
5) There were coups in both Greece and Italy. Private interests now run those countries.
6) We are on cruise control for war with Iran. The oil embargo combined with freezing the Iranian central bank’s assets mean it is, currently, the plan. Again, the world economy cannot handle an oil embargo against Iran.
7) The key economy in the world is China. If China crashes, we are done. China is in the position the US was in the 20s, it is the economy which is actually producing growth (or there are a few others, but it’s the main one) and the old world (Europe then, the Developed world now) doesn’t actually want growth, but wants to invest in China and make money that way. It didn’t work then, it won’t work now.
8 ) Business confidence is the expectation of increased demand. Austerity is the expectation of decreased demand. Austerity does not, will not, never has and never will restore business confidence.
9) The 2012 election only matters in the margins. The question is flavors of disastrous president, there is no president on the menu who will not be a disaster, though obviously Gingrich would be an extra serving of disaster. For the left, the election is essentially irrelevant. If you’re focusing your effort on 2012 you’re wasting your time. Focus on 2016.
10) Greece is going to default. So is Italy. So is Spain. The question is only when. The Euro is going to contract, the question is only when. This is almost inevitable. If Germany actually wanted to avoid this, they’d start spending like mad, buying from the peripheral Euro nations, but they won’t do that, so we’re done. If I’m wrong, that’s the worse case scenario: not defaulting means economic devastation in all the peripheral European nations, and stagnation everywhere else in Europe.
11) There is only one way things will get better, and that is politicians and bankers and the oligarchs start fearing the population, and believing that the military and police can’t protect them. The longer citizens insist on being “nice” and letting oligarchs steal their future, beat them, imprison them, take their homes, their jobs and their lives, the longer the oligarchs and their servants will do so. Why shouldn’t they?
Since populations won’t do what it takes to make the oligarchs fear them, the situation will continue to get worse. You can have widespread prosperity and democracy, or you can have oligarchs. You can’t have both. You’ve already made your choice, and until you change your mind, your future is gone.