The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Author: Tony Wikrent Page 31 of 48

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 3, 2021

by Tony Wikrent

Strategic Political Economy

Iran Cements Alliance With China, Russia In Clear Message To Washington

[oilprice.com, September 28, 2021, via Mike Norman Economics]

Iran’s approval last week for full membership to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is the surest sign yet that any U.S. efforts to keep it, or Iraq, or many key Shia Crescent Middle East states out of the China-Russia-Iran sphere of influence may now be entirely futile. The SCO is the world’s biggest regional organization both in terms of geographic scope and of population, covering 60 percent of the Eurasian continent (by far the biggest single landmass on Earth), 40 percent of the world’s population, and more than 20 percent of global GDP. Iran’s acceptance into the group’s full membership grouping, in which it held ‘observer status’ only for over 15 years, means, in effect: that the seismic, multi-generational Iran-China deal is set for full roll-out, with Russia firmly alongside both playing its role; and, that any new ‘nuclear deal’ done with Iran by the new U.S. administration will not be worth the paper it is written on.

 

[Twitter, via Naked Capitalism 9-26-2021]

https://twitter.com/kevtellier/status/1441774309652025346

More:

Modern party leaders are actively seeking to avoid the fate of the USSR. However, many outside observers assume PRC leaders view political liberalization as the primary cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When Xi came to power in 2012/2013, he initiated his “anti-corruption drive” to resolve three primary constraints:

– Reduce corruption

– Soften the power-base of entrenched interests

– Uproot the most acute sources of factionalism

7/

In hindsight, the past eight years of Xi’s reign as a continuous effort to mitigate the long-term impact of state capture and factionalism. The fact that we’re eight years in and these problems still exist likely means these are permanent features of the system. 8/

Concerning US-China relations, China is drawing lessons from the post-2008 US in the same way it draws lessons from the collapse of the Soviet Union. 18/

Many in China believe the US is deeply constrained (even incapacitated) by a combination of its private sector, entrenched state interests, and populist ultra-nationalism. 19/

“Institutional advantage” reflects a belief that the Chinese system can self-correct internally and adapt to externalities in ways the US simply cannot. 22/

China believes either sides’ ability to shed the weight of entrenched interests and conduct deep self-correction in real-time is what will define US-China relations in the 21st century. 23/

 

“United States Corporate Profits”

[Trading Economics, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 9-30-21]

“Corporate profits in the United States climbed 10.5% to a record high of USD 2.44 trillion in the second quarter of 2021, after rising 4.5% in the previous period and compared with a preliminary estimate of a 9.7% jump. Undistributed profits climbed 21.4% to $1.03 trillion and net cash flow with inventory valuation adjustment, the internal funds available to corporations for investment, advanced 7.9% to $3.08 trillion. Also, net dividends rose 3.8% to $1.41 trillion.”

 

The Pandemic and Capitalism

[Democracy Journal, via Naked Capitalism 9-29-2021]

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 26, 2021

by Tony Wikrent

Strategic Political Economy

“Rich People Are Leading the Anti-Vaccine Movement — and Experts Have a Theory Why”

[Money, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 9-20-21]

From 2019, still germane: “Disease experts say the parents least likely to vaccinate their kids live in some of the most affluent neighborhoods in the country. They’re well-educated, and have exceptional access to healthcare. And while some pockets of low-income communities of color are ‘under vaccinated’ for religious or financial reasons, studies published in places like the American Journal of Public Health show that the parents opting out for ‘philosophical reasons’ are mostly white and mostly wealthy…. Parents who opt out of vaccines tend to “believe, simply, that they can make the scientific determinations about the efficacy and dangers of vaccines for themselves,” she says. They have more free time on their hands than lower income parents — time that can be spent poring over anti-vaccine forums and websites, and applying for state-specific exemptions required to bypass school immunization laws…. When an outbreak does happen, rich families aren’t the only ones affected, of course. Usually, they aren’t even the hardest hit. This underscores a more sinister theory about why rich Americans are opting out of vaccines. A string of research referenced in the Washington Post last year suggests that wealthy people simply have less empathy than everybody else. They’re more likely to cheat on their taxes, and their spouses. And they give lower proportions of their income to charity. ‘Wealth is basically a mechanism for power, and power has a freeing effect on people,’ the social psychologist Adam Galinsky told the Post.’“It takes away the constraints of society and frees people to act according to their dominant desires.’ If you’re rich, the consequences of ‘opting out’ aren’t particularly dire. After all, it’s easier to rationalize the risks of bypassing immunization if you can afford a lengthy hospital stay, or to pull your kid out of daycare if her classmate gets sick. And while the U.S. has a long history of stigmatizing poor parents—’free range parenting,’ versus neglect, ‘welfare moms‘ versus stay at home mothers—if you’re a wealthy anti-vaxxer, you probably won’t face any social ramifications either.”

 

‘I need help’: Michigan county health director pleads for help after almost being run off the road

Aysha Qamar, September 21, 2021 [DailyKos]

As people resort to violence across the country, health officials are pleading for help. In one horrific incident, a Michigan County health director pleaded with county commissioners for help after almost being run off the road following the issuance of a mask mandate for preschool through sixth-grade school buildings, Michigan Advance reported.

“I need help. My team and I are broken. I’m about done. I’ve done my job to the best of my ability. I’ve given just about everything to Kent County, and now I’ve given some more of my safety,”  Kent County Health Department director Dr. Adam London said in a letter to county commissioners. The letter outlined his reasons for issuing the public health mandate requiring students to wear masks this fall….

“There is nothing to be gained by entertaining such people with dialog. In many cases, these are the same people who dismiss the plot against the governor as ‘just guys joking around’ and the January 6th insurrection as a peaceful patriotic protest. I think it is a grave mistake to unnecessarily give them targets and platforms. There is a sickness in America far more insidious than COVID. You are more empowered to fight this disease than I am.”

London told commissioners he would not “needlessly expose” himself to “the brute mob hatred” from a “vocal and energized minority.” In his letter, he noted that people called him terms like “child-abusing monster” and even threatened him with abusive language directed at his children.

“I will not participate in witch trials in which the science I’ve presented, and the opinions of legitimate experts is reduced to the same stage as people living in echo chambers of junk science, salespeople, and YouTube videos. For the leaders of these misinformation campaigns, it’s never really been about our data, it’s been about their dogma,” London said.

 

Likely Assassination of UN Chief by US, British and South African Intelligence Happened 60 Years Ago Today

[Consortium News, via Naked Capitalism 9-19-2021]

 

Number of Environmental Advocates Killed in 2020 Hits New Record

[Undark, via Naked Capitalism 9-23-21]

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 19, 2021

In memorium, Ronald Anthony Wikrent

August 8, 1963 – September 16, 2021

Please excuse me for putting this at the top, but I want to remember my “little” brother, Ronald Anthony Wikrent, who finally succumbed after a two year battle with a frighteningly aggressive cancer. He was seven years younger than me, and supported me throughout my life, both materially and spiritually. A few years after I graduated university, Ronnie agreed that he would stay home in Chicago, and support and look after ma, freeing me up to pursue my passion of “trying to save the world.” He built up and ran his own frozen food distribution business, and there were many times when I could have (and perhaps should have) joined him. I certainly would be facing a much more comfortable “retirement” right now, but Ronnie always made sure I was never in real material need of anything. He was constantly thinking of new ways to do business, for me to be financially secure, or to attack political problems. He literally helped feed millions of people in the Chicago area. He delighted in discussing politics and economics with me, and I spent many days each summer staying at his house while in between the special events at which I peddled books on agricultural, industrial and transportation history.

Ronnie, thank you for your love and support over the years. You were the best brother there could be, and I will miss you terribly. 

 

Strategic Political Economy

Understanding Is Good.

[Reminiscence of the Future, September 14, 2021, via Mike Norman Economics]

Like General John Hyten understands. Especially when talking to such a “think-buggy” as Brookings, known to be a nest of exceptionalist and neocon ideas….Actually, give it up for Hyten–he talks totally common sense things and, what is really important, and I know it for sure, neither Russia nor China want the war with the United States. In fact, his conclusion on modernization of Russia’s nuclear arsenal is spot on–Russia was worried about the US. Russia still worries about the US, this time because of a major clusterfuck the country has become and Russians are keenly aware that bat shit crazy element in US decision-making circuit is still present and one cannot completely exclude a possibility of those people pushing the United States to the brink of unleashing a war of desperation. Good that Hyten speaks to one such institution where neocon ideas are popular due to military ignorance of people exercising those and the words of General Hyten can only be commended. But as I am on record non-stop, the remaining expertise about the outside world rests today primarily, not exclusively, with some segments in the US military, who, by the virtue of their profession, have understanding of a horrendous price if the United States decides to unleash a suicidal war.

 

Republicans seethe with violence and lies. Texas is part of a bigger war they’re waging.

[The Guardian, via The Big Picture 9-12-2021]

This extremist vigilante abortion law is of a piece with everything else Republicans are doing: overturning democracy itself

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 12, 2021

by Tony Wikrent

Injustice

Natalie Edwards Was Imprisoned this Month by the U.S. for Blowing the Whistle on Wall Street Banks’ Laundering of Dirty Money
Pam Martens and Russ Martens, September 8, 2021 [Wall Street On Parade]

Edwards is the heroic former Treasury official who tried in vain to get her superiors in the federal government to act on her concerns. Left with no other options to get action, she turned over documents to a BuzzFeed News reporter that became the core of the FinCEN Files, a collaborative investigation involving BuzzFeed News, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists and 108 other news organizations.

In effect, Edwards spawned an international news bureau focused on exposing the flow of dirty money around the globe by big name banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Standard Chartered, and Bank of New York Mellon. One in-depth report at the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) captures the magnitude of Edwards’ service to the public interest with this headline: “Global banks defy U.S. crackdowns by serving oligarchs, criminals and terrorists: The FinCEN Files show trillions in tainted dollars flow freely through major banks, swamping a broken enforcement system.”

….Edwards deserves a pardon from President Biden, not to be sitting in a Federal Prison Camp where she cannot have visitors because COVID-19 is skyrocketing in the state of West Virginia.

Please consider signing the Pardon Petition for Edwards and forwarding it to your email contact list with a note asking your friends and family to do the same.

 

Strategic Political Economy

Justice Dept. sues Texas over state’s new abortion law 

[Fort Worth Star-Telegram, via Naked Capitalism 9-10-2021]

 

Will the federal government defend Americans’ constitutional rights against local vigilantes?

Heather Cox Richardson, September 9, 2021 [Letters from an American]

Today, the United States of America sued the state of Texas for acting “in open defiance of the Constitution” when it passed S. B. 8 and deprived “individuals of their constitutional rights.” The United States has a “profound sovereign interest” in making sure that individuals’ constitutional rights can be protected by the federal government, the lawsuit declares. “The act is clearly unconstitutional under longstanding Supreme Court precedent,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said.

What is at stake in this case is the ability of the federal government to defend Americans’ constitutional rights against local vigilantes, a power Americans gave to the federal government in 1868 by ratifying the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution after white former Confederates in southern states refused to accept the idea that their Black neighbors should have rights.

Since the 1950s, the Supreme Court has used federal power to protect the rights of minorities and women when state laws discriminated against them. S. B. 8 would strip the government of that power, leaving individuals at the mercy of their neighbors’ prejudices. The government has asked the U.S. district court for the western district of Texas to declare the law “invalid, null, and void,” and to stop the state from enforcing it.

This issue of federal supremacy is not limited to Texas. Glenn Thrush of the New York Times today called out that in June, Missouri governor Mike Parson signed the Second Amendment Preservation Act, which declares federal laws—including taxes—that govern the use of firearms “invalid in this state.” Like the Texas abortion law, the Second Amendment Preservation Act allows individuals to sue state officials who work with federal officials to deprive Missourians of what they consider to be their Second Amendment rights. “Obviously, it’s about far more than simply gun rights,” one of the chief proponents of the bill, far-right activist Aaron Dorr, said to Thrush about his involvement.

 

Texas’s revolutionary law

[Angry Bear, 9-11-2021]

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 5, 2021

 

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 5, 2021

Strategic Political Economy

The Writing On The Wall 

[Heisenberg Report, via Naked Capitalism 9-1-2021]

Beijing’s regulatory crackdown is no flash in the pan and it’s not “limited” or “targeted” either. It’s an across-the-board effort to rein in the influence of capital, scrub society of perceived Western excess, reestablish discipline (broadly construed) and codify Xi’s “thought.” It is, apparently, a “profound revolution.”

The reality of this has yet to set in for Western investors and, frankly, I doubt it ever will. We live in a world where people don’t confront reality. Rather, they suspend disbelief indefinitely in order to avoid coming to terms with their own follies.

.

[Twitter, via Naked Capitalism 8-29-21]

Lambert Strether: “Fascinating to watch a government that wants, and is able, to govern. Thread:”

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[Twitter, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 8-30-21]

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The Great American Science Heist

[The Intercept, via Naked Capitalism 8-31-21]

How the Bayh-Dole Act Wrested Public Science From the People’s Hands….

 

Federally Supported Innovations: 22 Examples of Major Technology Advances That Stem From Federal. Research Support (pdf)

The Information Technology & Innovation Foundation, February 2014

 

50 inventions you might not know were funded by the US government

[Stacker, December 9, 2020]

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 29, 2021

by Tony Wikrent

Strategic Political Economy
Chamathe Palihapitiya – Everyone is WRONG About China

[Youtube, via Mike Norman Economics, August 23, 2021]

This is extremely informative on two levels. First, former Facebook executive provides his assessment of the short term and long term in China. Short term, the CCP has unambiguously demonstrated that it is firmly in control and that “we will decide how money is made, and who makes it.” Long term, China’s current population of 1.4 billion people is expected to fall by half to 700 million people by 2200. Palihapitiya says that the CC’P’s response to this demographic “time bomb” is to reinforce socialism — which is similar to the argument I make that increasing automation, robotics, and AI in USA and other countries will require more and more “social spending” to support people who simply do not, and cannot, have the means to earn a decent income. Secondly, is to contrast the composure and temperament of Palihapitiya, who clearly sees that the CCP is exerting control over “markets” in a way not thinkable in USA and the West, with that of Palihapitiya’s interlocutor, who is so enmeshed in “free market” theology that he is flipping out over what the CCP is doing. 

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Who Has the Cure for America’s Declining Birthrate? Canada.

[New York Times, via The Big Picture 8-24-2021]

Over the last century, two moments that transformed America and positioned it as the global economic leader were the post-World War II economic boom and the I.T. revolution of the 1990s. In both cases, America tore down many forms of discrimination and other barriers to harness the talents of marginalized groups in the country and to welcome new ones, injecting demographic vitality into the economy. To continue America’s upward trajectory in the 21st century, the country must reverse its current demographic decline.

That last sentence especially shows that the writer is locked into the mainstream economic idea that declining population necessarily means a loss of national wealth. This thinking is based on the ideas of feudal mercantilism, which Alexander Hamilton overthrew by his design of the USA economy: “To cherish and stimulate the activity of the human mind, by multiplying the objects of enterprise, is not among the least considerable of the expedients by which the wealth of a nation may be promoted;” and, “the intrinsic wealth of a nation is to be measured, not by the abundance of the precious metals, contained in it, but by the quantity of the productions of its labor and industry….” Mercantalism is zero-sum. What one nation gained in trade, another lost. But Hamilton’s emphasis on machinery and the inventive genius of the human mind meant that the real wealth of a society is based on its technology, and the application of that technology to the processes of production, transportation, and communication.

 

The U.S. could be on the verge of a productivity boom, a game-changer for the economy 

[Washington Post, via The Big Picture 8-23-2021]

Rapid adoption of robots and artificial intelligence during the pandemic combined with a rebound in government investment is making some economists optimistic about a return of a 1990s economy with widespread benefits.

Neither WaPo writer or Ritholtz asks what should be an obvious question: If we can produce so much more with so many less workers, why do people need to work? In a republic, the ability of society to provide for human needs must be distributed in such a way that all citizens are guaranteed to decent life, with the material conditions needed for each to make their own, unique contributions. 

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 22, 2021

By Tony Wikrent

Afghanistan

Who Lost Afghanistan? — Nick Turse

[The Intercept, via Mike Norman Economics 8-17-2021]

Journalist Craig Whitlock’s new book, “The Afghanistan Papers: A Secret History of the War,” will help ensure that no one forgets the harm America’s civilian and military leaders did, the lies they told, and the war they lost.

Synthesizing more than 1,000 interviews and 10,000 pages of documents, Whitlock provides a stunning study of failure and mendacity, an irrefutable account of the U.S.’s ignoble defeat in the words of those who — from the battlefield to NATO headquarters in Kabul and from the Pentagon to the White House — got it so wrong for so long, papered their failures over with falsehoods, and sought to avoid even an ounce of accountability.

GOP Scrubs Webpage Touting Trump’s ‘Historic’ Taliban Deal

Gizmodo, via Naked Capitalism 8-17-2021]

We Failed Afghanistan, Not the Other Way Around 

Matt Taibbi, via Naked Capitalism 8-19-2021]

Per corruption on the US side, Taibbi is correct and then some. This has been endemic in US operations in the Middle East since at least the Gulf War. For instance, see this 2007 story in Vanity Fair about how Alan Grayson, before he ran for Congress, in his capacity as a lawyer and US contracting expert, filed a qui tam suit on the horrific grifting by US contractors in Iraq. What was most remarkable is the DoJ, in stark contrast with just about any other big ticket, well documented suit alleging theft in government contracting, refused to join the action. We also regularly mention the US inability to account for Pentagon spending, see this Cynthia McKinney clip to illustrate how long this has been going on. McKinney being ousted for showing too much ‘tude (such as towards the Capitol Police and AIPAC) always looked like trumped up charges, that it was her poking at the Pentagon was the real proximate cause. And generally, looks like the looting was a feature, not a bug.

Inside US Afghanistan pullout, CIA opium ratline, pipeline conflict, new cold war

[YouTube, via Jon Larson]

Moderate Rebels live: Max Blumenthal and Ben Norton discuss the US military pullout from Afghanistan with journalist Pepe Escobar, who has extensive experience reporting in the country and was even arrested by the Taliban.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 15, 2021

Strategic Political Economy

What China Wants and Why

[Bill Totten’s Weblog, via Mike Norman Economics, August 14, 2021]

One of the most concise summaries of the  geographic, economic, and demographic determinants of a country’s history and strategic interests I have ever read. 

Of China’s 1.4 billion people, 94% are Han, and their distribution follows nearly perfectly the Hu/15-in isohyet/NSGL line. This is surprising, especially if you compare it to India {4}, and its diverse ethnicities {5}. Why is China’s population so uniform?

To understand that, we need to look at history.

Brace For “Nasty” Debt Ceiling Fight As GOP Goes Full “Scorched Earth Mode” On Democrats

[ZeroHedge, August 11, 2021]

House Members’ Letter to Pelosi Mostly Barking Up the Wrong Tree

Stephanie Kelton [The Lens, via Naked Capitalism 8-8-2021]

Are they worried about running out of money? It sounds an awful lot like what former Treasury Secretaries Jack Lew and Larry Summers said in the run-up to passage of the Trump tax cuts back in 2017. Back then, both men warned that if the Republicans were successful in passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), then Congress would be left without the capacity to boost spending in the event of an emergency.

Here’s Lew:

If we had a crisis right now whether a financial crisis or a business cycle recession, we don’t have the fiscal policy to respond or the monetary policy. It’s quite scary. … We now don’t have a fiscal arsenal because we spent it on the tax cut and on the spending agreement. We’ve kind of spent the fiscal resources.

And here’s Summers:

Our country will be living on a shoestring for decades because of the increases in the deficits that will result. This is a serious threat to our national security because of what it will mean over time for our ability to fund national defense.

Obviously, both men were wrong…. Congress has the Power of the Purse. It can’t run out of financial resources. If the votes are there, the money will go out.

The Coming Redistricting Disaster

[The Daily Poster, August 13, 2021]

Democrats missed a critical deadline to stop GOP gerrymandering — and now the political bloodletting will begin…. on Thursday, the U.S. Census Bureau released its 2020 census data, enabling states to begin the once-a-decade process of redrawing their statehouse and congressional districts. Advocates have long been warning of the need to pass electoral reforms before map drawing begins. Since that has now failed to happen, experts say there will be dire consequences, including an effective end to majority rule in the U.S. and a failure to address climate change in a meaningful way.

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