I doubt any of you will recall, but in 2003 I wrote a long post over at a different place, that NATO was dead. It was useless, much like the Concert of Europe that emerged after the 1848 Revolutions in Europe recast and sought to revise the settlement of 1815, set up by Castlereagh-Metternich and Talleyrand.
So, today it’s official: the US-UK Special Relationship is dead. It’s been moribund for a long time, since after the Iraqi invasion there was a huge groundswell of UK citizens that resented their country being the American poodle. Lip service was paid, but now, no longer. That the Brits have to turned to the French says a lot.
With the Northwood Declaration the Brits have indicated their nuclear arsenal will no longer be under the unified command of SACEUR. The Brits will instead “Decouple” from the Americans and integrate with their continental ally, France. For decades the UK’s nuclear arsenal was inoperable without the USA, as it is so much based on American technology, command and control dependency, even the Brits boomers (SSBN) are dependent on US technology, namely the UGM-133 Trident II, a submarine launched ballistic missile made for the US and Royal Navies in America.
The UK has four Vanguard-class boomers in service, which each carry a potential total of 16 SLBMs. Each SLBM Is MIRVed, deploying a potential total of 192 nuclear warheads with yields of 100kt each per submarine. In 2021 the government of Boris Johnson implemented a policy of ‘deliberate ambiguity’ so the exact size and scope of the UK’s nuclear arsenal is unknown.
France, like the UK, maintains a small fleet of four Triomphant-class boomers. Each French boomer can carry up to 16 French-made M45 or M51 SLBMs, that are MIRVed, and French warhead yields fall between 150kt-300kt. Both British and French boomers have four torpedo tubes, the French can also launch the Exocte anti-ship missile while underwater. French boomers got some teeth.
France also maintains a small aircraft deliverable stockpile of nuclear weapons. The UK decommissioned their nuclear aircraft years ago. By French and UK law each country must have at least one boomer at sea at all times.
In the video I linked above the Deutsche Welle interviewer asks Phillips O’Brien the main question, “how historically significant this is this shift in nuclear posture from France and the UK?”
Phillips answers with typical British understatement, “well particularly from the UK but also from France because both of their nuclear deterrence particularly the UK has basically been inoperable without the USA that it’s been based on American technology a lot of it and very close cooperation uh and the idea that sort of the British would would go in a way to try and establish a nuclear deterrent that could be operated, developed and operated without the USA would be something quite extraordinary because they’ve not done anything like that before. I think it’s a sign that the United States is no longer seen as quite a reliable defense partner.”
This is decline observable in real time. This is the world that Trump has created. The nation that I once called the USS Unsinkable, no longer finds the US a reliable security partner. Imagine what our allies in Asia are thinking?
The Northwood Declaration is a concrete manifestation of how the rest of the world now sees the United States: the primary rogue nation. I knew the world would change a great deal in my lifetime, but I honestly did not think that I would see this. Thirty one years ago this summer I got my first passport and headed to Europe. I remember thinking about my passport as almost like one would think of an American Express card. It was my key to the world and I could go anywhere. That was true until about 10 years ago. What a world we Americans pissed away.
As Churchill once said, “friends are not permanent, interests are.”
Feral Finster
Don’t kid yourself. This is one of those neurotic european stunts to get Americans to pay attention to them.
We see similar behavior in a dog that pees the floor to get Master to notice them and fight Russia for them.
A very good quote: “As for the “hapless Europoodles”, it’s rare to find Americans who recognise that that’s not how the European politicians see themselves. More that they hope to lever American military and economic power in pursuit of their own objectives. For most Americans it’s usual to regard the Euros as the patsy. For the Euros, it’s always been the other way round.”
bruce wilder
It is hard not to see the UK as having gone rogue in its own peculiar way, their aggressive foreign policy yapping at Russia in particular has become so intense.
The insanity of the UK posturing over Estonia and the Baltic is essential background to wanting to escape the dead hand of American nuclear deterrence strategy in favor of being able to join France in poking the Bear.
Curt Kastens
I am skeptical as well. A couple of years ago it was a rage to say that the Saudis were no longer going to be poodules of the Israelis. I saw it at the time as clearly a trick to ensure that the Iranians would not target SA oil fields after a Israeli US attack.
So we are to believe that after 70 years of pooduldum the UK has managed to free itself from its leash. I doubt it.
Curt Kastens
And since when are the French anything but the wienerdogs of the Americans anyways.
Britians behavior is all easily explained by Brian Berletic. French and German behavior as well.
mago
Back in the day the US passport was golden, got waved through customs with a smile, no visa required.
I recently semi panicked thinking my passport was expired, but nope, good for three more years, not that I’m likely to use it, although Katmandu and karma could call my name.
I looked at the photos in old passports when I was young and handsome enough and thought where has the time gone, so much has changed.
I looked at the most recent and thought, Jesus, got that Willie Nelson thing going on without the talent or money.
Hey gringos, the world likes your money, but not your ways nor your face. Stay home.
Eric Anderson
Granted, Europe has it’s faults.
But, gang, they are clearly not going to align with Russia.
And, that is clearly trump’s endgame. His “Nixon moment.”
Align the two powers, kick China to the curb, and milk Europe dry.
Viewed in this light, it all makes perfect sense.
Revelo
@Eric Anderson: I’m not sure what “kick China to the curb” means. USA wants to reduce dependence on China. No one thinks USA can control China anymore.
Trump is definitely moving in the direction of cooperating implicitly with Russia to weaken Europe, but here will be no USA alignment with Russia. Instead, perpetual conflict, but the Europeans will do the fighting and pay the price of this conflict, thereby weakening them and tying Russia down so neither can interfere in the Mediterranean, Africa or South America, which will be the resource conflict zones between USA and China.
USA will also probably implicitly encourage Russia to get a sphere of influence in southeast Europe (Balkans) and ally with Iran to get involved in Azerbaijan, Armenia and new state of Kurdistan so as to weaken Turkiye. USA wants control of the Mediterranean and the Arabian peninsula, but knows or will soon accept that it can’t take Iran. If USA cannot take Iran, then it needs to humble and weaken Turkiye to make it an obedient vassal and thus secure the Mediterranean. That leaves Algeria, which is easy to turn it a vassal once the rest of the Mediterranean under control.
bruce wilder
“History is written by the victors,” goes the cliché, but it is not true. History is written by the revisionists, people who often have no real knowledge, considered judgment or anything worth saying, but want to express themselves anyway and be heard (probably not unlike my own lovely self, but with more fashion consciousness).
A revisionist never simply judges a situation as whole, from the beginning. No drawing on a clean sheet of paper. Not enough knowledge for that. The journalist revisionist grabs a trend and projects, making “news” out of confirmation (“such-and-such now expected to be worse than previously thought” — thought by whom is left out of account). The historian revisionist, dissatisfied with the prospect of telling the same, old story with additional information gained from hard work, wants to tell a sensational new story and the key to making the new narrative work is artfully omitting a whole lot of information from context. Look here at this obscure quotation — proof that Abraham Lincoln was a terrible racist and not a hero! Counterfactuals offered as evidence are particularly useful: theory and proof wrapped up together — it isn’t enough for some historians to be able to write the story knowing the ending; they want to write a new and different story based on “knowing” an ending that never actually happened.
I feel that most European leaders are feeling like revisionists trapped within the confines of collapsing legacy institutions that they didn’t create, couldn’t create given their own very limited knowledge and understanding, but still wanting to write new narratives with themselves as heroic protagonists. So, they riff off trend line projections, so to speak, or tactically omit context. A lot of what they do in terms of political posturing is cosplaying a fantasy version of a misremembered past.
A realistic view for Europe economically is to embrace the benefits of demographic decline in a world of depleting resources and to abandon collapsing colonial trade relations for a cooperative alliance with a resource-rich Russia. For the EU, the best course might well be to reform economic institutions in a decentralized direction, devolving power to nation-states, even allowing smaller polities to emerge like Scotland, Bavaria or Catalonia with more control of their economic destiny.
The idea of spending 5% of GDP on either an old generation of artillery shells and planes or a new generation of autonomous weaponry while the existing industrial base is made obsolete by China and hoping there will be safety and security in that while foreign policy leadership is left in the hands of the likes of Kaja Kallas and Kier Starmer — it borders on psychotic delusion.
To imagine that anything this current generation of dominant political leadership in Europe does makes any sense or that their rationales for their conduct of affairs follow from a rational appreciation of interests or challenges is to completely misunderstand the neoliberal end-game. These people simply do not know what they are doing or why.
Alex D.
Is “boomers” meant to mean “bombers”?
Eric Anderson
@Revelo —
Did I say the US would attempt to do it alone? No. I think I was pretty clear that if trump had his way an “axis” between the US and Russia would try. Russia has no live of China. Their relationship is currently one only of convenience.
And, you confuse the deep state / MIC with Trump himself. You’re assessment is likely correct re the MIC, but Trump doesn’t have the priors. He loves the idea of being a strongman though. And he loves to turn relationships completely on their head.
Unfortunately for him, nobody is stupid enough to trust him — to include Putin.
@Alex —
Boomers are military slang for nuclear armed submarines.
Thermobarbaric
Re Alex D:
“Boomer” is US military jargon or slang for the SSBNs aka as the USN’s ballistic missile submarine fleet carrying the ICBM missiles with multiple warheads and heavy payloads (latest Tridents for US/UK).
Purple Library Guy
“Boomer” is actually Australian slang for a large old male kangaroo, because of the sound they make when they jump. They may or may not be armed with nuclear weapons.
Forecasting Intelligence
Seriously!
Truth is the French and British talk the talk from time to time but politics always gets in the way.
There are elements within the British and French elite who would like to work together but there are too many obstacles to make it work.
different clue
The same word can mean different things in different languages.
In Ameringlish, boomer will mean one thing or things.
In Austringlish, boomer will mean another thing or things.