I wavered between writing another Iran war update and this article, so I’ll say a few things about the Iranian war. There’s evidence that Israeli intelligence networks in Iran and elsewhere are being compromised fast. It appears that:
In simple terms:
Israel’s attack on Iran exposed a hidden network. For 25 years, India’s RAW and Israel’s Mossad have worked together using Indian tech workers across the Gulf as quiet access points into sensitive infrastructure. This network runs through millions of Indian… https://t.co/zkJRVuSoPx
— Thomas Keith (@iwasnevrhere_) June 17, 2025
That India, a Hindu/Brahmin supremacists state which is increasingly treating its minorities the way Israel used to treat Palestinians before it went full genocidal is allied this deeply with Israel is not a surprise. That they were willing to flush their intelligence network down the drain for Israel shows that they’re as stupid as America.
This will, of course, lead to Indian tech and guest workers being unwelcome and a massive crash in foreign earnings sent back to India.
Meanwhile, the US is sending vast numbers of planes and supplies to the Middle East. Only B-2 bombers can deliver munitions powerful enough to actually crack Iran’s underground nuclear enrichment. Trump is screaming “unconditional surrender”, the propaganda operation is in full echo of the Iraq war, and it certainly looks like the US is going to enter the war, though Trump is so fickle that nothing is certain till it happens.
Still, my guess is that TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) rankles with Trump, and since he’s too gutless to stand firm on tariffs, he’ll start a war.
Likewise, as Bush Jr. understood, war time Presidents are popular. Trump’s polls are atrocious, and he will expect a rally around effect from being a war President to repair them and save him in the mid-terms.
Now, to the larger picture. America’s war against Iran, combined with Ukraine and all the munitions sent to Israel means that the US will not be able to directly fight China or Russia for years.
The non-secret weakness of the American military is how little munitions they are able to produce, a weakness which extends throughout NATO. Western militaries are expeditionary forces, even the American one, intended for fighting non peer adversaries who are expected to collapse quickly. This means that production of war materials is low.
For example, America produces the following quantities of air defense missiles every year:
- Patriot: 500-550, expected to go up to 650 by 2027 (the rate of increase is itself pathetic.)
- SM-6 (Aegis naval AD): 125-150 a year
- SM-3 (Aegis again): 20-50 a year
- Stinger (man-pad AD, important in Ukraine): 600-700 a year.
- Sidewinder (short range A-A): 1600-1800 a year
- THAAD (Air ground for intercepting short to medium range ballistic systems, Israel uses these, Ukraine no): 50-100/year
Numbers for offensive missiles are similar:
- Tomahawk missiles (sea launched vs. ground targets): 68-100/year
- JASSM missiles (long range precision cruise missile): 200-300/year
- Javelin anti-tank (man portable): 1,200-1,500/year
- MGM-400 ATACMS (ground to ground, launched from HIMARS and MLRS launchers): 50-100/year
- Hellfire (short range air to ground, laser guided, launched from helicopters): 500-1000/year
Exact numbers are hard to determine for obvious reasons. Stockpiles of most of these missiles (but not all) have been drawn down vastly thru the Ukraine and Israeli-everyone wars. If Iran is attacked, multiple years worth of production will be used up.
This means that China will have complete dominance in the their part of the Pacific, and definitely around Taiwan and the first island chain, for years. Indeed, by the time the US re-stockpiles, China will be so far ahead in numbers of missiles that it will be hopeless, and that’s before we get to the fact that China can replenish stocks so much faster than the US.
All of this without even discussing drones, where China’s lead is astronomical.
Empires do not go gentle into that long night. What America is doing and enabling is monstrous.
But it is also accelerating America’s decline.
And that is in foreign affairs. Domestically, Trump is systematically destroying the basis of American advancement in tech and science. The idea that private enterprise, which does not do basic research, can make up the difference is ludicrous to anyone who knows how science and tech works. Indeed, the current AI boom is based on university research from the 80s (granted, research in Canada! A country the US has decided to turn from an ally into an opponent.)
Trump is also dismantling the social welfare system, turning the US into a police state (and not the sort-of-good kind, yes, they exist, China is one of them), massively increasing inequality and basically destroying the remaining social solidarity between Americans.
I can’t think of a more destructive US President except maybe Reagan (but that was long term.) Even Hoover looks good (he didn’t cause the crash, he just responded badly.) Trump is just so actively malign. He’s not a Russian agent, but the cold war KGB couldn’t have put someone in place who was more damaging even in their wildest dreams.
So, all of this is awful. But America’s days are numbered. Truly numbered. Unless you are very old, or die an early death, you will see the end of the American Empire and even of American hegemony over the Americas.
***
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Even when Trump rejects them and treats them like shit, they are still aligned. BFFL — Best Friends For Life. With the G7 and Trump, it’s more than lip service.
Donny Dove the deal-breaking peacemaker. The G7 supports America and Israel in their destruction of Iran despite all the “brave” rhetoric in reaction to Trump taunting them.
https://g7.canada.ca/en/news-and-media/news/g7-leaders-statement-on-recent-developments-between-israel-and-iran/
Oakchair
Polls show 60% to 20% of American’s oppose American involvement against Iran. Republicans oppose it 50% to 25%. When was the last time the American public opposed a war at this early stage?
Israel has succeeded in making most everyone view them negatively by 60%-30% margins even in Western NATO nations.
Similar to the Ukraine war –considering the large amounts of propaganda, unknowable conditions, and censorship– I think it’s best to focus on the forest instead of the trees.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/06/03/most-people-across-24-surveyed-countries-have-negative-views-of-israel-and-netanyahu/sr_25-06-03_views-of-israel_1/
bruce wilder
Thomas Keith’s hypothesis about how and why Iran could be so thoroughly riddled by Mossad is interesting, but I would regard evidence in support to be emergent not complete. There are not a lot of Indian tech workers in Iran though there are a lot across the water in Gulf states, so Keith’s story says something about those more fragile and more authoritarian states. Competing with it is the “thoroughly corrupt and hypocritical society” hypothesis.
Being attacked by an external enemy is the kind of shock that can change a society very rapidly. Trust, though, is likely to be in short supply. Watch for scapegoats to be identified regardless of truth.
There is a tiny but possibly significant minority in the U.S. who are warning in stark terms about Mossad penetration of U.S. politics. Israel forms a fifth column destroying U.S. power, is the thesis. See John Mearshimmer for the sober version or Tucker Carlson or Steve Bannon for the rougher, paranoid version. If this goes badly for the U.S., which seems almost certain to become the case since the only element of rationality and patriotism possibly allowed consideration in elite decision-making is the depleted and obsolescent stock of U.S. weapons. In this view, Trump is not the malign force, as in Ian’s narrative; rather Trump is weak and hapless tool of the evil of the shadowy Deep State aka teh Blob(tm)
Carborundum
The first image is, contrary to the original assertion therein, AI generated.
The second video is from last October: https://x.com/clashreport/status/1851876599429312816
(Contrary to what the voiceover says, I think that’s actually Nevatim being struck.)
samm
Could be, but the 90 day tariff pause ends in three weeks as well. Just speculating, but it seems like a kinetic war is the perfect cover under which to reopen the trade fronts.
Ian Welsh
Not sure the first image is AI generated rather than a long exposure photograph, but the second one is what I was interested in. Thanks for the heads up, deleted.
GrimJim
Trump always has been, and always will be, a malign force in and if and for himself, and also a weak and hapless tool for whoever holds his reins at the moment, whether that’s MAGA, Mossad, or the KGB.
At this point, however, what is really needed is some kind of disaster, of biblical proportions, to just take out the United States.
Just… wipe it out. Destroy it, for all time, in such a way as to make Ozymandius weep.
We deserve no more. We deserve far worse. Our lower classes are the willing and eager dupes for our diabolical elites, and the few of us who cry out in the wilderness are as a fart in a hurricane.
The USA must end. It must be ground into dust, its people humiliated and scattered, its holy books burned, its myths and legends condemned to the memory hole, and a damnatio memoriae placed on the whole misbegotten experiment, before it brings about an extinction level event all in the name of white supremacist shareholder value.
Feral Finster
1. Would to God or Bastet or whatever that you prove correct. However, we have heard at every stage of escalation that the West is out of everything from burrito coverings to cat treats, yet they escalate anyway.
Were that the case, it beggars the imagination to think that there is nobody in the Pentagon, the Champs Elysses, Whitehall or whatever, who cannot take the politicians aside and tell them to quit letting their mouths write checks that their asses cannot cash.
And if the politicians won’t, can’t or don’t listen, it’s not as if the generals and military planners do not have backdoor channels to get their message out.
2. Surely by now the folks here have learned that nobody of influence and authority cares about popular opinion.
Hiero
I’ve read that the only “munitions powerful enough to actually crack Iran’s underground nuclear enrichment” are tactical nukes, the use of which would open the gate on atomic weapons everywhere, esp by Russia in Ukraine. I guess the silver lining would be that the nuclear enrichment facilities are this catastrophe’s WMDs, so maybe they don’t try it.
“he will expect a rally around effect from being a war President” Bush had the 9/11 swell behind him though. I wonder what corresponding swell might appear for ding dong donny.
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Same goes for Ukraine. Trump treats Zelensky like shit, but hey, BFFL. No matter how bad you treat us Donny Dove, our support for Israel’s right to defend itself, cover for terrorize the world, is unflagging. Throw on top of that Mossad’s heavy involvement in the drone attack on Russia’s nuclear air force assets. It was a facsimile of at least part of the initial attack on Iran.
Zelensky had the nerve to compare Russia to Hamas. What a dirtbag. Even if the excuse is Ukraine has to support Israel to maintain American support, it’s not justifiable as a matter of principle and as such I do not support arming and supporting Ukraine but nor do I support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and nor do I support Israel’s so-called right to defend itself, and America’s support of that, and all that entails which is effectively a license for Israel to declare war on anyone at any given time and Israel’s right to genocide the Palestinians. It’s the only principled approach.
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/ties-that-bind-palestinians-in-ukraine-grappling-with-grief-on-two-fronts-16993045
Zelensky’s rank hypocrisy is disgusting. Whether you mean it or not, Zelensky, you have shot yourself and Ukraine in the foot, maybe even in the face. Those anti-missile missiles may very well have gone to Israel versus Ukraine. When you dance with the devil you get burned and you rightfully are burned, Zelensky.
bruce wilder
GrimJim: Our lower classes are the willing and eager dupes for our diabolical elites, and the few of us who cry out in the wilderness are as a fart in a hurricane.
Good lord, Jim. Take a walk. Eat some ice cream. You are not that special, 1. And, 2. hating on the largely powerless “lower classes” who probably include you is unbecoming.
I really do not understand the allergy to “the lower classes” or the sense of social or philosophic superiority that goes with it. It is very unattractive.
For myself, I will say I don’t see what are almost by definition institutional failures as being the especial responsibility of “the lower classes”. Institutions fail because of rot among the elites that lead (and architect) them or manage the apparatus from on High.
I would not follow Ian in “blaming” Trump for accelerating the demolition of decadent institutions. If my analysis identifies decayed institutions as being at fault, should I not want some demolition? Better that than annihilation of “the lower classes”. I am too ambivalent and I recognize that the institutions of the American hegemony are overbuilt and top-heavy. Trump is doing a dirty job badly, but so what? I do not imagine I can NOT discern what is politically possible let alone ideal, so I observe mostly without feeling I can judge or root wisely. But I don’t think I morally deserve to be annihilated. The foundations of the MIC, which Trump, a hypomaniac social dominator with demagogic tendencies from a military school background, is unlikely to attack directly, will crumble because those foundations are wet sand through no particular fault of Trump’s. (I think Trump did well to call the bluff of the Chiefs over the efficacy of shelling the Houthis. I wouldn’t think I was doing well to echo the TACO slander in that particular context, just to give an example to illustrate my general attitude.)
Purple Library Guy
So, Iran has slowed its missile attacks–there are definitely fewer missiles going in per day. Israel claims it’s because they’ve destroyed so many Iranian launchers, so Iran can no longer do big wave attacks. That seems . . . awfully fast, but I don’t know enough to rule it out. Still . . . one big sortie by Israel and now Iran’s supposed to be nearly out of launchers? Seems odd to me, and of course the Israeli military lie all the time about everything.
The Iranians apparently claim it’s because Israel’s missile defences suck hard enough that it turns out they don’t need wave attacks, they can just pick their targets, especially since they’ve started using the more fancy ordnance now. I’m not sure about that either, although the Patriot systems I believe Israel relies on a lot have been a bit suspect in Ukraine, and it wouldn’t be the first time.
Anybody have any knowledge or ideas about that?
Oakchair
There’s a video segment of Tucker Carlson’s interview with War slut Ted Cruz making the rounds.
Carlson asks Cruz basic things about Iran such as population, and ethnicity. Cruz doesn’t know.
Cruz’s response when his ignorance is revealed epitomizes our societies shallowness. He doesn’t think it’s important or even relevant to know the basics about a topic. He flat out says that knowing Iran’s population and basic ethnic structure is “expert” knowledge.
Cruz should be derided, but the real problem is that he is a product of systemic failure, or I guess succus depending on who is judging. His anti-intellectualism is typical of public discourse. The arrogance and aggressive retaliation when his ignorance is pointed out is the standard operating procedure for our society.
This is how our mainstream society functions and forms opinions. Remember that next time you’re reading/listening to the news on a topic.
different clue
. . . ” In this view, Trump is not the malign force, as in Ian’s narrative; ” . . .
” This view” is irrelevant to Trump’s domestic stateside arson and teardown of domestic governance capabilities which still exist. Mossad didn’t make Trump create DOGE and appoint Musk to be the DOGE Czar. Mossad isn’t driving any of the disablement-cuts to NOAA, EPA, NIOSH, etc. etc. etc.
Mossad did not put Kennedy in charge of HHS.
Mossad is not driving Trump and his Noem and Miller into building up ICE and Homeland Security into a new American combination SS-Gestapo.
Naturally Bannon would like to blame Mossad for “something” , so as to escape blame for his own guiding role in bringing Trump in particular and Trumpery in general into power.
Mearshimer ( Mearsheimer?) is a foreign policy expert. Foreign policy experts consider America as a mere state upon which to perform and display their foreign policy expertise, so of course Mearsheimer would care about Mossad’s penetration of American foreign/military policy, because that is a foreign policy thing. And of course Mearsheimer would not even care about American domestic burndown by Trump because American domestic events are just “domestic” and hence beneath the concern or even notice of a Famous Foreign Policy Intellectual like Mearsheimer.
Has Trump destroyed American social solidarity? He has certainly destroyed any social solidarity I might have felt for the people who have revealed themselves to be such vile anti-American filth as the MAGA/ Christianazi-SatanoFascist garbage have revealed themselves to be. ( By the way, I suspect the MAGA-base divides into two groups: the Movement MAGAs who would be against the coming America-Iran War as against the Trumpanon Cult MAGAs who will support whatever their divine God-Emperor Trump commands them to support. And MAGA is only part of Trump’s base.
The other part is the Christianazi-SatanoFascists such as the New Apostolic Reformation, the Rapturanians and the Armageddonists, the Gilead Republic evangelicals, etc. And they will support the coming America-Iran war in order to speed up the Fulfillment of Prophecy as outlined in Book of Revalation, etc.)
Is co-solidarity possible within smaller sub-groups of Americans? Black America is is solidarity with Black America. Those Americans who attended the various No Kings events might develop a bit of co-solidarity feeling with eachother. If the No Kings organization schedules such a nationwide coverage of events every month and the gatherings are bigger every time, that might allow a measure of Solidarity to grow among a growing number of No Kings event attendees. What would they then do with that solidarity? What would they do between monthly No Kings events?
different clue
In the Mearshimer part of my comment above, I meant to type that Foreign Policy types like Mearsheimer consider America to be a mere stage, not “state” the way I mistyped.
different clue
. . . ” When you dance with the devil you get burned and you rightfully are burned, Zelensky. ” . . .
In other words, the leopards ate his face?
someofparts
This news made my day. I’ve been worried about India being part of BRICS for a long time, so seeing them humiliated and exposed for treachery at such scale is very satisfying.
Years ago I stumbled across this book called Mother India by Katherine Mayo. If you read the reviews on Amazon, the efforts to discredit the author and hide the truth about the book should be familiar to anyone accustomed to the liars in US media.
As someone who did indeed read the book I can tell you exactly what it covers. In the early 1900s, doctors from the UK/US got a good look at the condition of Indian women. What they found was ghastly. India is a pedophile nation. The descriptions in that book are so gruesome that I don’t even have the vocabulary to express their horror.
Ever since I read it, I have felt that India was one of the places in the world that is beyond redemption. They are one of the oldest cultures on the planet, so they have had centuries to sort things out and fix themselves, but they never will.
So it has always bothered me that India is one of the founding members of BRICS, because I have always feared they would be the Enemy Within that would undermine the multi-polar, anti-colonial project. Therefore I am very pleased that they have been caught red-handed in such massive treachery. I look forward to seeing how the rest of the BRICS nations deal with this.
Oakchair
I really do not understand the allergy to “the lower classes” or the sense of social or philosophic superiority that goes with it. It is very unattractive.
——
The upper classes who are in control of the education system, media, government, corporations medical system etc. need someone to scapegoat. Punching down on the lower classes benefits those in power and they have the resources to get that narrative to every ear every day.
For the middle and even lower classes themselves there is –to put it mildly– unpleasantness in admitting that the rulers and institutions of society are corrupt, immoral etc. Denial especially about things we’re mostly powerless to change does cause temporary bliss. Much easier to blame those “dumb losers” than blame the powerful who can squash you like those starving bombed Palestinian children.
—–
the TACO slander
—-
Threats of nuclear war are flying. Another war is starting that could kill millions triple energy costs and destroy several more countries. And one side in the war slut nation is insulting the other for “chickening out”. If Trump chickens out I’ll still smile when he dies.
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A. Vote Dem in 2026 and 2028
B. Vote Dem in 2026 and 2028
C. Vote Dem in 2026 and 2028
D. Vote Dem in 2026 and 2028
E. All of the Above
E is my answer. Same as it always was and is but with the caveat IF they can vote Dem again. IF they can and they’re successful, the Dems will return us/them once again to clutches of the fascists because, well, because that’s all the Dems know how to do.
Blabbin’ Gruesome 2028
Your question is poignant and pertinent, dc. This is why I put little to no faith in protest. Seldom are they truly genuine versus synthetic and there is no next phase aside from vote Dem in the next elections.
This coming from someone who was going to refrain from voting in the last election but after much debate, decided the best bet was Harris as onerous as that was and it was onerous. To not vote was a vote for Trump and we both knew a vote for Trump would give us even worse than the Dems in every way, and that’s pretty f’n bad, and here we are. Our vote was strategically correct but being right is nothing more than a shit burger. What tragic calculus that is, right? Would you rather slow boil like a frog or be seared on Trump’s big beautiful golden grill?
bruce wilder
[Trump] has certainly destroyed any social solidarity I might have felt for the people who have revealed themselves to be such vile anti-American filth as the MAGA/ Christianazi-SatanoFascist garbage have revealed themselves to be.
Trump did that!?
Then, why hold back, dc? Tell us how you really feel!
different clue
@ Like & Subscribe,
Your view does not offer much hope. Is it as bad as that? It could be. Still, what if the people attending these pre-called-for gatherings were to develop enough co-solidarity to where they began wondering what they can do with eachother beTWEEN elections and outside the electoral vote-casting arena?
When I say so many events called for all at once I wondered how professional an effort might be behind the scheduled call-out announcments. I went to the Fifty-FiftyOne website and looked at it for a minute or two. It looked professionally done.
Does that mean it is astroturf? The people who came out were real people and they met eachother and took some heart from the evident numbers of other such people coming out. Astroturf can’t compel that. Perhaps we should think of it as sod farming. The sod has to be planted and cared for. But still, the sod is real sod.
And this sod might be able to care for itself and eachother, and plant itself out further and further as it becomes aware of its own existence.
So we’ll see.
Another sub-sector solidarity driver will be the TrumpAdmin’s ongoing and increasing persecution and oppression and occupation of ” Big Democrat Cities” and then maybe “Blue Zones” in general. The people in these targeted areas will be forced into the kind of Survival Solidarity imposed by a common enemy and its common enemy aggression. What will people driven into a Shared Survival Solidarity mindset do with their Shared Survival Solidarity?
Maybe commenters here could start offering ideas about what the “could” do with that solidarity to see what kind of effect it has.
someofparts
I am definitely a member of the lower classes. Wishing to see us destroyed is probably redundant. People like me will always pay for the crimes of our rulers, so if that’s what you want, relax.
The FBI pointed out decades ago that the US is in the grip of an epidemic of Control Fraud. Control Fraud is the crime of using a company you own to undertake criminal deeds. But don’t worry, those people will escape punishment and their lower class victims will pay the price.
In the Rachel Blevins interview with Laith Marouf that I will provide again here –
https://rumble.com/v6uvukz-iran-preparing-for-long-war-against-israel-nato-as-uss-nimitz-deployed-to-m.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp
Marouf points out that Iran and its allies are not using the full force of their weaponry yet because they believe it is wiser to practice the strategy of attrition on Israel/US so that Israel will not panic and nuke Tehran. He notes that if Israel does nuke Tehran, Pakistan will nuke Tel Aviv.
As to the No Kings demonstrations, I am going to re-post a link Mark Level provided in the recent open thread here –
https://rumble.com/v6uvukz-iran-preparing-for-long-war-against-israel-nato-as-uss-nimitz-deployed-to-m.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp
Between 8:50 – 18:16 in the conversation, Garland Nixon explains what he thinks is really behind those demonstrations. I would urge everyone to listen to what Nixon has to say here. These are not the honest, straightforward protests that we remember from the glory days of Martin Luther King.
bruce wilder
“This view” is irrelevant to Trump’s domestic stateside arson and teardown of domestic governance capabilities which still exist.
I do not necessarily disagree. I view Trump’s enthusiasm for crypto with extreme prejudice, for example. I do not understand it, though with my economics background, I probably should. My gut reaction is that it is money laundering plus Ponzi scheme plus deflation, all wrapped in an improbable scheme to save the “wealth” of globalist oligarchs when the global dollar system burns to the ground. At the expense of everyone.
On the other hand, I really despise the establishment campaign to oust RFK, Jr. On the rare occasions, I actually know something definite about some public health issue where RFK, Jr is being attacked, the attack is based on an outright lie or deception. I am NOT saying RFK, Jr is right; I often cannot even find out easily what he actually said in full context or why it matters. He seems to me to be a dilettante and gadfly, so I do not expect he is medically right, but he also does not present himself as a medical expert; he presents as an establishment critic, a critic of institutional practice and policy. But the experts who attack RFK, Jr directly or thru journalists, do seem to lie or deceive pretty frequently and casually.
RFK, Jr is attacking institutional corruption imho. Maybe not always from the ideal angle of attack. But, he is pressing for action where action is clearly called for imho. Something is wrong in American public health and in the regulation of food and in medical research. And, no one with political power has been willing to do anything for decades as Americans have gotten sicker.
You can say RFK, Jr sold his soul to the devil Trump to get the power to try and you would be right. I would note as you don’t that his first choice for power platform was the Democratic Party, where a Party establishment without scruples refused him entree and fought his independent candidacy fiercely, a Party whose preferred candidates were a senile architect of many of the afflictions of the country and an airhead bimbo. That last Dem Administration presided over more COVID deaths than the first Trump Administration and completely discredited public health policy with its lies about vaccines and bad guidance to the public.
So, “domestic governance capabilities which still exist”?? Yeah, I am not seeing a lot of that. Life expectancy has been declining at least since Saint Obama — you know, the guy who couldn’t find more than one bankster to prosecute, but put whistleblowers away and whose signature accomplishment was a website that didn’t work.
Do I want Trump to destroy the CFPB or Social Security or what remains of Medicaid? Of course not. I observe that the loyal opposition isn’t doing much to protect them; who they are loyal to I leave as an exercise for the Reader. The “No Kings” protestors I observed on Saturday despite their admitted triumph — on Sunday America had no King; if only Canada could say the same, eh? — do not see to me to be self-aware enough to be politically aware.
Anyway, I digress. I apologize for misspelling Mearsheimer.