This is a thread for comments on how to prepare for bad times. All off-topic comments will be deleted. The thread will be re-upped occasionally so that resources can build over time.
(I’m going to bring this back to the top at least once a month, maybe more, so people can read the old advice and add theirs.)
This is another case of Trump doing the right thing in theory. From Matt Stoller:
Trump also issued an executive order to ban buybacks, dividends, and cap executive compensation for defense contractors. The rumor is that DOD deputy secretary Steve Feinberg complained about the unwillingness of the contractors to do competent work. Feinberg is a private equity guy, and he proposed this crackdown.
“Many large contractors,” goes the order” “while underperforming on existing contracts — pursue newer, more lucrative contracts, stock buy-backs, and excessive dividends to shareholders at the cost of production capacity, innovation, and on-time delivery.”
Now this is all good policy. In fact I’ve called for similar policies (I would allow reasonable dividends) on all corporations, without exception. Corporations are run, right now, to make the most money possible for those who control them, which usually means the executives, with some exceptions. Since stock options are how much of the excessive pay is delivered, and since stock-buybacks drive up stock prices, instead of spending money on organic corporate growth executives juice stock prices and thus their compensation.
American defense contractor performance during the Ukraine war has been embarrassing. Russia increased its production of weapons and munition massively, while the US has barely increased production at all. This has led to Russia having massive artillery, drone and missile advantage.
This is an attempt by Trump to force defense contractors to use their profits to increase production and re-invest in things like quality and research.
Trump often does the right thing conceptually, he just almost always screws up the details, as he did with tariffs. I rather doubt this will work much better. Still it’s a step in the right direction, though I don’t think increased production of American weapons is good for anyone.
Combined with Trump’s proposed 50% hike in the military budget this makes the Trump administration’s play obvious, if it wasn’t already. The only thing the US has left right now is its military. It’s behind in 89% of techs, the dollar is well on its way to losing reserve and primary trade currency status, and China has far more industry.
But the US still has the world’s best expeditionary and force projection military. This has been demonstrated in Venezuela, not so much by Maduro’s kidnapping, as by the attempt to blackmail Venezuela with a naval blockade to give control of its oil to D.C. (I don’t think this is going to work out very well for the US, for a variety of reasons, but it may work for a few years.)
If all you’ve got is a big stick, well, that’s what you will use. But if defense contractors don’t get their act together you could spend three times as much money and get almost nothing for it, since they can’t build any large amount of weapons or ammunition or ships in any amount of time that isn’t measured in years. Longer than Trump’s remaining term.
(Note that China has a veto over all this. They can shut down almost all weapon production any time they choose just by restricting military use tech and resources like rare earths. They can do what FDR did to the Japanese with ban on oil sales any time they choose, and they’re not stupid, they know it. The more they disentangle themselves from the US, the more they may consider doing so, as America keeps attacking their trade partners.)
Now on to the Fed. The DOJ has charged the head of the Federal Reserve with perjury.
Here’s a transcript of Powell’s video statement.
Good evening. On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June.
That testimony concerned, in part, a multi-year project to renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings. I have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in our democracy. No one-certainly not the Chair of the Federal Reserve-is above the law. But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the Administration’s threats and ongoing pressure.
This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. It is not about Congress’s oversight role. The Fed, through testimony and other public disclosures, made every effort to keep Congress informed about the renovation project. Those are pretexts.
The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President. This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions, or whether, instead, monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.
I have served at the Federal Reserve under four Administrations-Republicans and Democrats alike. In every case, I have carried out my duties without political fear or favor, focused solely on our mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats. I will continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do-with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people. Thank you.
The problem here is that we have two bad actors colliding. Trump wants to set interest rates based on his political needs, but the Federal Reserve’s policies for over 45 years now have blown multiple asset bubbles, bailed out rich people repeatedly, and deliberately kept unemployment higher than it would otherwise have been. Powell has been no better than his predecessors, his policies have favored the rich and Private Equity.
As a philosophical matter I don’t believe in central bank independence. It should be controlled by elected officials. But these charges are, as Powell notes, obviously political bullshit, just another weaponizing of law enforcement against Trump’s enemies. The irony is that Trump could get what he wants using his actual powers: he can’t replace the Federal Reserve Chair, but he can fire every other board member for cause. Even if the Supremes decide not to back him, which is unlikely, he’d have his own people in place for quite a while before they could act and they could outvote Powell.
And, since Trump is an incompetent boob, control of the Federal Reserve wouldn’t make things better.
As Stoller notes none of this is likely to amount to much because Trump’s team is deeply infiltrated by the usual suspects, people who don’t really want to control prices, reduce inflation or reduce the amount of money rich people get. Even if Trump wants to, his team won’t execute and he’s not the type of executive who’s capable of riding herd on uncooperative subordinates.
Still, there’s a clear policy direction here: an attempt to make the levers of government work for the administration. Lower prices domestically (won’t work) and make the military more effective so that the US can use it as a club, since all other sources of American power are in decline or outright failing.
Trump could screw up boiling water, but there’s a lot of legacy strength still left in the US. Expect things to get worse for weaker powers and American citizens for some time to come.
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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 11, 2026
by Tony Wikrent
“A curtain of darkness is settling over our nation.”
[TW: For a reason I shall explain, there were a number of posts this past week that struck me but I have not included all of them here. What struck me was the impression that the writers are beginning to wrestle with some truly fundamental questions of human nature, and how human nature can be molded — or more accurately, channeled and contained — by how society is organized, according to which principles, and whether the leaders of society embody, to some degree or another, those principles. So, I was greatly encouraged a couple days ago when a reader from this site reached out to me using Facebook messages to initiate a discussion of civic republicanism.]
In Defense of Pretexts — Paying tribute to virtue is better than the alternative…
Brian Beutler, Jan 09, 2026 [Off Message]
…my impression is most people, even many of Trump’s own loyalists, haven’t experienced all this as just another week in Trumpville. They feel more disturbed—or, in MAGA, more titillated—as though a new threshold of wickedness has been crossed.
That’s been my feeling since Sunday morning, for reasons I at first struggled to articulate.…
I would of course prefer to live in a world where policymakers and elected officials were scrupulously honest and above board. If that were our condition, we wouldn’t have pretexts, because we wouldn’t start any wars. We might finish them, but we wouldn’t go looking.
Building a world like that should be our north star. But in the world of today—of mixed and rotten motives, where wars of choice happen whether I want them to or not—I’ll take false justifications for bad acts.
If you care about America’s highest aspirations—freedom, equality, self-governance rule of law—the pretexts matter. We can be clear eyed about the people who lay false claim to these ideals, yet still take some solace in their lies, because the lies confirm that the ideals still have power.
Why pretend that a war of plunder is meant to spread democracy or fight communism or defend the homeland, unless you know that the public values certain higher principles, and may revolt if you traduce them? If your true motives are toxic, you have to conceal them, because the people—we the people—are better than you.
This is the tribute vice pays to virtue in the rawest sense, and it is revealing. These are cynical people, many of whom have no place in their hearts for principle or consistency. But if that is their nature, why would they pay tribute to anything? Vice is vice.
They do it because virtue still controls. It’s still the default. Because they haven’t won the masses over to uncut evil.
By dispensing with the pretexts, Trump suggests he thinks he’s overcome that obstacle, worn the public down, made us as malevolent as he is. He still pays some tribute to virtue. He won’t cop to having launched a war. But the theft and subjugation are right there on the surface, without any tributes to virtue.
I think this is what has people so unsettled. Why he has to be stopped preemptively and forced to reverse, or else be run out of office. If he prevails—not just in acting lawlessly, but in doing so nakedly, and without pushback—then it’s over. We become changed.
That’s why I miss the pretexts. It’s also why I take some solace in the fact that his Venezuela “policy” polls poorly. That his menacing of Greenland polls even worse….
Ryan Enos, Jan 09, 2026
Right now, the Republican Party is enabling the authoritarian leader who is ignoring the law and terrorizing his own citizens. Because of this party’s leader, we no longer live in a full democracy. But, despite this or, perhaps, because of it, the future of democracy in the United States will depend on choices made within the Republican Party.
This must be the path because a liberal democracy requires more than one functioning party, and, at least in the foreseeable future, the Republican Party will be one of them. Our plan for sustaining that liberal society can’t be shutting the GOP out of power, but rather must include shaping the Republican Party, the party that will represent the approximately half of society that inevitably holds right-wing beliefs, into a party that upholds liberalism (small l) and democracy.
The alternative is to hope that Democrats win all elections moving forward. But if this is our plan for sustaining democracy, we are cooked…..
Trump not violating any law
‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’
Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025 [mediaite.com]
Rep. Omar Warns Trump Aims to Provoke Enough Agitation in Minnesota So He Can Declare ‘Martial Law’
Jon Queally, Jan 10, 2026 [CommonDreams]
Jim Stewartson, Jan 07, 2026 [MindWar]
Following ICE murder of Renee Nicole Good, Trump officials threaten mass repression
[Countercurrents, via Naked Capitalism 01-10-2025]
… The conscious and deliberate character of Good’s killing is underscored by the open and unapologetic defense of the murder by Trump administration officials. By hailing the killing, Trump and the coterie of fascists in the administration are making clear that it was an expression of official government policy.
Everything coming out of the mouths of administration officials is a lie, and everyone knows it is a lie. On Thursday, Vice President JD Vance held a press conference in which he slandered Good and praised her killer. He called the federal agent’s actions “legitimate” and denounced the media for “talking about this guy as if he’s a murderer,” adding menacingly, “Be a little bit more careful.”
The Trump administration is seizing on the murder of Good as a pretext for a sweeping escalation in the criminalization of political opposition. Vance announced the creation of a new assistant attorney general position that will answer directly to the president. Asked about his message to “far-leftist agitators,” Vance declared: “Now they have an assistant attorney general who is going to prosecute and investigate their fraud and their violence more aggressively than it has ever been investigated.”
Vance accused “a group of left-wing radicals” of using “domestic terror techniques” to oppose the government’s immigration policies.
He never referred to Good by name, instead smearing her as “that woman,” a “deranged leftist” who was “brainwashed.” He insisted the killer was “protected by absolute immunity,” denounced the local investigation into the murder, and declared, “The unprecedented thing is the idea that a local official can actually prosecute a federal official with absolute immunity.” ….
In an extraordinary statement, Trump declared that he operates outside of any legal constraint. Asked whether there were any limits on his ability to strike, invade or coerce other nations, Trump responded: “Yeah, there is one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me.” He dismissed international law outright—“I don’t need international law”—and made clear that he would be the sole arbiter of any legal constraints: “It depends what your definition of international law is.” ….
While leading Democrats have issued insincere statements in response to the killing of Good, their main concern is to contain the explosive growth of opposition within the United States…. At a press conference Thursday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries were asked if they would use their budgetary powers to rein in ICE. They refused to answer….
Letters from an American, January 10, 2026
Heather Cox Richardson, Jan 11, 2026
…Hours after Good’s death, Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem appeared in Manhattan behind a podium emblazoned with the words: “ONE OF OURS, ALL OF YOURS.”….
We’re All “Domestic Terrorists” Now
Ross Rosenfeld, January 8, 2026 [The New Republic]
In ICE’s Own Words, It’s “Wartime” in America
Michael Tomasky, January 9, 2026 [The New Republic]
ICE just launched a “wartime recruitment” campaign and seeks agents who want to “defend” their “culture.” There will be more Renee Goods….
Trump Lays Out a Vision of Power Restrained Only by ‘My Own Morality
[New York Times, via Naked Capitalism 01-09-2025]
Jim Stewartson, Jan 09, 2026 [MindWar]
A word often used to describe Trump is authoritarian. But this is insufficient. Authority is the recognized right to control outcomes within a set of constraints accepted as binding—familial, religious, cultural, moral or legal.
The U.S. federal government is deliberately destroying the idea of any authority being legitimate except the ability to project coercive violence. We are living in the “might makes right” world of neo-Nazi ideology, a kratocracy.
- William Montague defined kratocracy as: a government by those strong enough to seize control through violence or deceit.
In ‘Unhinged’ Rant, Miller Says US Has Right to Take Over Any Country For Its Resources
Julia Conley, January 06, 2025 [CommonDreams]
Trump admin sends tough private message to oil companies on Venezuela
[Politico, via Naked Capitalism 01-04-2026]
Administration officials have told oil executives in recent weeks that if they want compensation for their rigs, pipelines and other seized property, then they must be prepared to go back into Venezuela now and invest heavily in reviving its shattered petroleum industry, two people familiar with the administration’s outreach told POLITICO on Saturday….
Monopoly Round-Up: A Gunboat Oligarchy Goes After Venezuelan Oil
Matt Stoller, Jan 04, 2026 [BIG]
[TW: a history lesson that is grandly encouraging. Wright Patman would be a wonderful subject for Ron Chernow’s next book (but so also would be Lincoln economic advisor Henry Carey; Massachusetts Senator Charles Sumner, who delivered one of the most important American explanations of civic republicanism; and Pennsylvania Congressman Thadeous Stevens, whose warnings of the dreadful consequences of failing to seize the wealth of the slave-holders proved to be entirely accurate). Also important is Stoller noting that Trump is really just a continuation of Bush. Implication: getting rid of Trump will not solve the underlying problems of an entrenched oligarchy controlling both major political parties, and the militant conservative and libertarian movements that are nurtured and richly funded by that entrenched oligarchy.]
Trump kicked off 2026 with a military attack on Venezuela and a naked seizure of oil resources. Wall Street is overjoyed. Plus, Mamdani takes office and billionaires rage at a wealth tax….
…U.S. domination of the oil reserves of South America is not new. And neither is the fusion of corporate and state interest.
Ninety five years ago, in 1931, Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon, who owned Gulf Oil (now Chevron), forced the President of Colombia to give his company the Barco oil concession, which borders Venezuela. How? Well Wall Street banks and the U.S. government threatened to withhold vitally needed bank loans if Colombia did not cede the franchise….
At the time, Democrats were incompetent and split, as it was an era of deep reverence for the wealthy and bitter culture warring over race and alcohol. For instance, the head of the DNC in the late 1920s, a Dupont executive named John J. Raskob, published a pamphlet titled “Everybody Ought to Be Rich” encouraging Americans to borrow money to invest in the stock market.
Just as there is increasing support for cynical and nihilistic figures today, many in the 1920s felt warmly towards Mellon, Mussolini, and authoritarianism in general….
But then came the 1929 crash, and a period of “debunking” of myths, as Louis Brandeis put it. The old order was discredited. And a political realignment occurred. The Democrats turned to liberalism, and former party elites like Raskob became bitter foes of FDR in the 1930s. But more importantly, Patman’s impeachment campaign succeeded. Mellon was fired, because then-President Herbert Hoover was under political pressure over the widespread revulsion towards economic elites. You get a sense of this dynamic by going through Patman’s Congressional correspondence. “We have just got Al Capone,” wrote one Texan. “Now let’s get some of the others.”
…Ultimately, what the attack on Venezuela shows is that Donald Trump decided to use his 2024 mandate for change to revert back to a traditional gunboat diplomacy framework, both domestically and abroad. Like Mellon, Harding, Hoover, and George W. Bush, Trump is operating on behalf of financial capital. Indeed, Trump more reflects Bush than anyone else; his administration is staffed with former Bush Republicans, and the GOP Congress is full of Bush adherents.
Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.
This will offend some people because supposedly outsiders aren’t supposed to do anything but cheer Resistance actors or something.
These are deeply foolish people and if they keep refusing to actually fight or make alliance, and keep letting Israel and the US take swings at Iran at times and places of their choosing they are eventually going to lose.
They should also get that formal alliance with Russia and make whatever agreements are necessary to get full economic support from China, which could end their inflation problems in half a year
The counter-argument is that winning the missile war might lead to nuking. I don’t think Israel would do that unless it was existential, nuking Iran would cost them extremely. But Israel having nukes is precisely why Iran either needs to get their own or to get under a nuclear powers umbrella. (Ideally you first make an alliance with Russia, then you get the nukes.)
I don’t know what the dysfunction is, exactly, but if they don’t fix it, it’s likely to be terminal. I suspect a lot comes from Khameini, certainly the nuclear ban does.
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Amid all the bad news, all the thrashing of a dying Empire, I re-iterate that while one needs to maneuver through this period deftly, the big picture remains unchanged.
There was a slow decline from 2014 to 2022, which could have just been part of normal perambulations. But from 2022 to 2025 the US dollar has dropped from 50% of reserves to 40%. That’s FAST. Right now there is no alternative reserve currency, everyone’s piling into gold. However trade is increasingly being done in local currencies.
This is exactly as predicted. It will continue to accelerate. Venezuela is in part an attempt to shore up the US dollar. It might make a slight bump, but it’s irrelevant to the trend or larger picture.
There’s a comment from Some Guy I want to highlight in whole:
The US is done. Done. Done. It will, as I keep saying, die ugly. But it is a walking corpse. This is really basic stuff. China can build infrastructure for less than 5% of the cost of America, and in less than a quarter the time. (Often 10% of the time.) This is a general Western problem, by the way, all of us are expensive and slow. Until we fix this very basic issue, nothing else matters. In fixing something this basic we will have to fix almost everything else.
It’s not just that China is ahead in tech, it’s that we are no longer even able to do things we could do twenty, forty or in many cases a hundred year ago in any reasonable time frame at any reasonable cost. This is, in Jane Jacobs’ term, a “Dark Age”, a forgetting. Dark Ages are when you lose the ability to do what you used to be able to do. That’s us. It goes far beyond building: we had defeated multiple infectious diseases like Mumps and Measles, for example, which are coming back. We literally can’t make products we used to make 30 years ago, because we sent all that industry to China and we DO NOT have the know-how any more. That know how is embodied in people and those people are dead or sixty or seventy or eighty years old.
Modern generative “AI” slop cannot actually learn. It is a copying mechanism. We do not have the people it can copy from. It cannot solve this problem for us, whatever the insane boosters say, and we have just laid our entire bankroll on the table in one huge bet, which we will probably lose and which even if we win will still not solve our fundamental problems.
If there was ANY sign of reversal, that’d be great, but there isn’t. In fact we are doubling down: we are deskilling even faster than we were before and giving up on research. We aren’t re-shoring industry, we’re still losing it.
Venezuela sucks. Gaza sucks. Greenland will suck. None of it matters to the big picture. State power since the Industrial Revolution is a function of industrial power and technological level as limited by resources and population. Population and resources are limiters, they are not useful by themselves except in rare cases that are weakening over time. (aka. mass infantry for horrific attrition warfare.)
If you’re in the West, prepare for the continued decline. If you’re elsewhere, know the the days of suffering at America’s hands are now running down. If you live another twenty years you WILL see the end of most of this nonsense. Trump has announced he wants to increase the military budget by 50%, but it doesn’t really matter, because money cannot buy what the US needs unless it fixes its real problems, which defense spending done the way Trump or Democrats will do it will not.
Empires die ugly. But this Empire IS dying and it is accelerating towards its end.
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So, some stuff has begun to come out though so far it’s all from the US and I haven’t seen Venezuelan confirmation. First, Trump:
Second, the oil blockade per Hegseth (Secretary of War):
And third, Miller:
Meanwhile a Russian flagged oil tanker was seized. I’m not sure that it’s legitimately Russian flagged, there’s some indication they may have changed the flag in the last two weeks, but if it was, the Russians now have a quandry. The only real response is something symmetrical: seize a US bound freighter, like Iran has. We’ll see if Putin has the guts. He’s overlooked too many red lines in the past for me to be confident in his response.
Anyway, the play is obvious: no oil gets in and out of Venezuela without going thru the US first. The current government may or may not be allowed to stay in charge, we’ll see, but the Venezuelan economy can’t survive without oil exports so the US expects submission.
If neither Russia nor China are willing to intervene and Venezuela isn’t willing to take horrific losses (they’d probably win, but they’d get hurt doing so), then this is what will happen. If I were China I’d probably just end all military and dual use exports including all rare earths while there’s any blockade. What America is doing is clearly piracy. US law does not determine whether other countries can trade with each other—not de jure, anyway.
If there’s to be any remaining shred of freedom of trade it’s going to have to be enforced.
The next question is Greenland. If the US seizes that, then NATO is finished. Anyone MAGA friendly in Europe will be annihilated. Everyone will fall into China’s grasp, there’s no other alternative and there will be a mad scramble of nuclear proliferation. (Should have happened long ago, but people didn’t want to admit the US was an evil overlord.)
Trump may be able to coerce Venezuela (though China could stop him, it seems unlikeley they will) but he is accelerating the collapse of the American Empire something fierce. Again, the US is auto-catabolic in economic terms, and this is just the mad thrashing of a dying Empire, dramatic as it is.
Venezuelan crude is heavy oil. It will be of little value to the US economy, China can replace it without much difficulty and Russia doesn’t need it. This is seizing a wasting asset, acting like it’s 1935 or 1970 and oil is the most important strategic resource. It isn’t. It isn’t even close any more, as long as you have enough. China is aggressively moving away from dependence on oil, in particular, and China is who matters.
Trump’s just an aggressive moron. None of this will stop or even slow US decline where it matters. Instead it will speed it up, and in the longer term, the US will not keep control of Venezuela either.
No one’s talking about Trump being a pedophile right now, however, so I guess it’s “Mission Successful.”
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Willingness to fight and to absorb damage is the most important thing. The Yemenis lost leaders, civilians and port facilities. They just kept going until the US withdrew. Everyone except the Chinese walks careful around the US because they know it can do a lot of damage to them: more than they can do to it.
But as the Vietnamese, Taliban, and Ansar Allah proved, if you’re willing to accept lopsided exchange numbers you can win just by being a lot tougher than Americans are. They’ll eventually give up and go away.
This was, by the way, Bin Laden’s explicit policy. He wrote as much. Get the Americans to invade Afghanistan and do to them what the Afghans did to Russia. It didn’t work that great (slow bleed, since they didn’t have Superpower support like they did against Russia) but then Bush decided to attack Iraq and whether you consider the occupation a win or a loss, it was a clusterfuck.
Venezuela is trying to avoid armed conflict, in part, I suspect, because they aren’t a unified society. That means the cost for the US is almost zero.
Hezbollah had the same problem with Israel and the US and it cost them a great deal. It may cost them everything. Their problem is and was exacerbated by the sectarian nature of Lebanon. If they had gone all out against the Israelis they could have inflicted massive damage, but Israeli retaliation might well have led to a civil war as other factions blamed them. Additionally, much of the issue, as with Iran, appears to have simply been a constitutionally extremely cautious leadership. (Khameini’s refusal to get nuclear weapons, in particular, is political malpractice of the highest order.)
America can absolutely be beaten. In fact, the US war record since WWII is abysmal. Great at winning battles, but if the opponent is willing to take the hits, the US cannot stay the course.
There are damn good reasons for trying to placate the US. The amount of damage they can do is insane.
But Trump is, even more than any other American President of my lifetime, a classic bully. If you back down to him, he takes that as a sign of weakness and that he can get more. He will keep pushing and taking till he has everything, or until you fight back and hurt him, even if it’s only just a little.
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The Interstate Bridge crosses the Columbia River, connecting Oregon and Washington State. It has a moderate length, about 1km, and was built first in 1917 and then twinned in 1958.
There has been talk of replacing it for decades, but it was reported today that the estimated cost has risen to a range of $14bn – $18bn (USD), with the new estimate so high that is simply may not be feasible to replace the bridge. Part of the eye-watering price tag is the expected timeline for construction, with the replacement taking 20 years and finishing in 2045.
By way of comparison, and barely scratching the surface, China completed the Huajiang Canyon Bridge a few months ago. The bridge is not particularly long by Chinese standards, 2.8km, but is noteworthy for being the highest bridge in the world. It was constructed in under 4 years, for a cost of roughly $300mn USD.
Nothing more really needs to be said, in my opinion.