Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Europe Page 10 of 17

The End of the Euro and the Tragedy of the Transnational Dream

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On January 11, 2016

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For the first time Gallup finds a statistical tie for leaving the Euro in both Greece and Italy.

This has been a long time coming, and a great deal of suffering has happened because people are so slow to adjust to reality. The Euro was never a good idea for either Greece or Italy, and staying in it has cost them a great number of lives, ruined lives, and unhappiness.

It is unclear to me that the Euro is a good idea for any nation in Europe except the Germans. It is too tedious to go into the details; if you’ve been paying attention at all, you know that nations need the ability to use their currency to devalue, and that the Euro is lower than the German Mark would be, giving Germany a large export advantage.

The Euro would only make sense if Europe were going to genuinely amalgamate. If Paris, and Berlin, and so on were reduced to the status of American states.

Meanwhile we are watching the end of the Schengen system. White women have been raped in Germany, and that’s going to be the end of Merkel’s strong support for letting refugees in. Internal borders have been going up all over Europe, and that’s going to continue. This, one notes, fucks the southern European nations of, oh, Greece and Italy.  When the borders are closed they’re going to be stuck with almost all the refugees without the capacity to deal with them.

Why are they still in the Euro? Why are they still in the EU?

Polls still show very strong support for staying in the EU, but I wonder if the benefits still outweigh the advantages. If Europe can’t even fairly divide up refugees according to each member’s ability to handle them, what serious crisis could Europe handle? And remember, the refugee crisis in Europe is nothing compared to what Lebanon or Turkey have had to handle.

The EU was created so there wouldn’t be another general European war. Maybe it should have stuck to that mandate rather than charging ahead with a level of integration it could not support, with a design that ensured that most countries could not hold referendums if support existed.

The EU did a great deal of good, I won’t deny it. It is understandable that it still has a high level of support in certain nations (like Poland). But it has become an anti-democratic stronghold whose policies are clearly damaging the economies of many of its members. I’m not even sure one can make the case that France wouldn’t be better off out of the Euro.

A world of little states is problematic. So many of our problems can only be solved trans-nationally. But the trans-national bodies we have created have been disasters. The WTO, the World Bank, and the IMF have all done more harm than good–in essence because they were designed to maintain the post-WWII status quo (over Keynes objections, I might add).

Until we understand what should be done locally, and what should be done internationally, and until we decide upon the source of our ultimate legitimacy (the EU, IMF, WTO, and World Bank all do not agree it is the “people”), then we are going to continue to have these problems.

That would be fine if we weren’t currently engaged in activities which are likely to see one or two billion  people die, and which, on the outside, risk wiping out the human race.

We need to make internationalism work. The first step towards that would be understanding that internationalism must be designed  to work for everyone, and that there is infrastructure is in place to genuinely care for those who lose out (there are always some).

Until then, joining projects like the WTO or Euro remains political malfeasance.

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(Corrected—A Not-Unreasonable Action) If You Don’t Want People to Compare You to Nazis, Don’t act like Nazis, Denmark Edition

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On December 17, 2015

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So, this:

On Thursday, December 10, the center-right Danish government proposed legislation that would enable immigration authorities to seize jewelry and other personal valuables from refugees.

Vox says this can’t be compared to what the Nazis did.

I say if you don’t want to be compared to Nazis, don’t act like Nazis.

Geesh.

Correction (Dec 18): I have been informed and agree that I misunderstood. Apparently the law applies only to those applying for welfare, and Danes are also required to realize assets. Thanks for the correction.

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The Bitter Harvest of Failure: France’s Far Right Takes the Lead in Regional Elections

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On December 6, 2015

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Thirty percent to 29 percent for the Republican/UDI coalition, with the socialists (who aren’t actually socialists), coming in at 22 percent.

Key grafs:

Many political analysts stressed the impact of the Paris terror attacks could have on voters’ opinions. They contributed to raise the popularity of the three main parties, but the far right has also especially benefitted.

Another factor was the fact that the social democrat government of Francois Hollande has been losing more and more support among the population for failing to solve the issue of high unemployment rates while implementing measures of economic austerity (i.e. restrictions on public spendings). (sic)

There is nothing worse for the left than “center left” parties who follow right wing policies like austerity.

As I, and others, have warned repeatedly, if other groups cannot solve the very real problems exaggerated by austerity, voters will eventually hand power over to real radicals with a mandate to do “whatever it takes,” and I do mean “whatever.”

The radicals may be to the left or the right, but every time someone like Hollande takes power as “left” and then wimps out on actually fixing things, it discredits the left.

The fascist right will continue to rise as the center, right, and center-left all hue to neo-liberal orthodoxy, which got us into this mess and cannot get us out of it.

And so, the men and women on horseback are coming. In America we have Trump, in France they have LePen, and there will be many others.

A government which continually fails the people will be replaced, one way or another.

We live in a pre-revolutionary and pre-war world and the risks are ratcheting up every year. It is this that those of us who fought the ideological wars of the early 2000s were trying to avoid. We wanted changes made that would not require vast war and revolution, because we knew, and still know, the river of blood from which such change is born.

We had our chance. We failed, as those who came before us failed. Aye, and those before them.

And so the world will convulse in blood and terror. The old regimes are not yet dead, but they are bleeding out, and as they do so, they continue to loot and fornicate, pretending all is well enough.

And why not? Those who made this world are the richest rich the world has ever known. To them, this is the best of times.

They will reap as they have sown, but those who failed to stop them, or rather, their children, will reap an even more bitter harvest.

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The Reason for the Paris Attacks

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On November 14, 2015

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So, 128 dead so far, and over 200 injured in multiple attacks across Paris. ISIS has claimed responsibility, though nothing in their communique shows any knowledge not in the news, so it may or may not be them.

In a sense it doesn’t matter who it is. The task of any group which seeks minority support is to “heighten contradictions,” as the old Marxists used to say. You commit atrocities precisely because you want backlash against an identifiable minority. The more they are oppressed, the more they will turn to you, the less they will inform, and so on.

“Terrorists” and western Governments have become co-dependent. Many in the West want further excuses for internal repression (which is usually justified as just being against a despised minority, then spreads), and for more war.

Hollande has used language which indicates he may be about to invoke NATO Article 5. If so, he would presumably want significant Western military action where ISIS is—Iraq and Syria.

This is a potential disaster, given the Russian presence, and given that the Russian presence, in part, was to forestall a NATO “no fly zone.” With public opinion inflamed, the West may tell Russia to “step aside, or else.” What if Russia doesn’t?

Even if Russia does withdraw, welcome to another quagmire, ending in a failed state. (Yes, Syria is a failed state now, mostly, but if you think Western intervention will fix that you haven’t been paying attention.)

Let us hope sanity reigns. And let us remember that attacks of this magnitude are reasonably common in Iraq, Syria, and other failed states. To be sure, it is a tragedy. It is no more of a tragedy, nor less a tragedy, than a similar attack in Baghdad.

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Eurocrat Coup in Portugal

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On October 23, 2015

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Oh. My. God.

Portuguese FlagPortugal has entered dangerous political waters. For the first time since the creation of Europe’s monetary union, a member state has taken the explicit step of forbidding eurosceptic parties from taking office on the grounds of national interest.

Anibal Cavaco Silva, Portugal’s constitutional president, has refused to appoint a Left-wing coalition government even though it secured an absolute majority in the Portuguese parliament and won a mandate to smash the austerity regime bequeathed by the EU-IMF Troika.

Those who make peaceful change impossible…. well, you know the rest.

I am incredulous.

It’s now quite clear that the European Union is anti-democratic to its core. It needs to be radically changed or abandoned. It was already very difficult to be simultaneously pro-democracy and pro-EU, given the “Euro treaties cannot be changed by elections” stance of the Eurocrats (and given how far out of their way they went to make sure that the treaties were not subject to referenda), but this is beyond the pale.

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The Human Crop of War

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On September 14, 2015

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There is little question that absent the Iraq war there would be no Syrian refugee crisis.  The line draws direct between the two.

Germany, today, is closing its borders to refugees after earning the world’s praise (for a change) for its compassionate acceptance of those who needed its shelter, and those whom it certainly can afford to shelter. As the richest European state, Germany can take more refugees, feed and house them and even find work for them.

Ethically, the countries who should be taking most of the Syrian refugees are those responsible for Iraq and who have directly fueled the flames of the Syrian conflict: Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, America, Britain and so on.

There is a deadly price for posturing that leads to war: be clear, Assad, however bad he was was not as bad as the Syrian civil war.  To be sure, there is often a case for ending the reign of tyrants, but one does need to check the price tag.

And, along with checking the price, one might want to to check the motivation. Wrong ends generally feed back to into wrong means: it is not credible, given their own records on human rights, that most of those who are trying to overthrow Assad actually are acting out of good motives.

This is power politics, not humanitarian action.

There is little more to say about this.  We could take care of the refugees if we wanted to, we have the resources, this is not in question.  In question is if we want to.  In a western world whose baseline policy is austerity—who do not even want to care for their own citizens, the answer tends to be no.

Jeremy Corbyn, who suggests (to mainstream laughter) that the solution to the Syrian crisis is not to bomb Syria more, is the beginning of the repudiation of the nonsense that doing more of what didn’t work in the past is the solution.  Let us hope he is Britain’s next Prime Minister, and the beginning of a wave of repudiation of the austerity and war.

Until then the weak will suffer what they must, and powerful will do as they will.  And then whine about the results of their actions.

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Tsipras: “Now that I Have Unconditionally Surrendered, I Promise to Lead the Fight.”

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On July 24, 2015

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Yeah, ok:

As far as my own code of values is concerned, the presence of the Left in the government is not in order to seek high office. It is the stronghold of the interests of our people! A stronghold for the protection of those who have been wronged! A stronghold for the large class fights against vested interests within the country!

As far as I am concerned, I have no intention of abandoning this stronghold. We will not become cowards, nor will we ignore our responsibilities, nor will we become apologists for lost fights. Because the only lost fights are those which never took place!

The fights lying ahead will be given with the same fighting spirit, the same faith in our strength, the same dignity and they will be fights which will be won.”

The same lack of planning and willingness to fold when faced by strong opposition? The same ability to create a worse situation than would have existed if you’d just accepted the first deal on the table?

Not just contemptible but delusional, and Greeks who are anti-austerity and still support him are fools. (Of course, given the pollsters got the results of referendum wrong by 20 percent, who’s to say that 60 percent of Greeks do still support Tsipras?  More likely he’s got the support of a little more than the 40 percent who voted Yes.)

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When Will Greek Looting and Austerity End?

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On July 15, 2015

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Back in 2010 a friend predicted it would end when Greeks stormed parliament and beat or hung members of parliament.

It seems that, while that may or may not be literally the case, in general terms it is one of three possible end states. Since there are always enough MPs willing to sign any deal, no matter how bad, because they personally do not suffer the consequences of said deals, bringing the consequences home will be necessary.

The second possibility is the Schauble plan. It is odd that Schauble, though extraordinarily punitive, is willing to offer a pretty good deal for Grexit. He’s worked hard for it, and maybe he’ll be able to force it through yet. So far he has been stymied primarily by the fact that the Greeks will accept any deal, no matter how bad. You can imagine Schauble thinking:

“I want the Greeks out, so I’ll offer bad deals, surely they’ll leave.”

“Hmmm, that didn’t work, I’ll offer a worse deal!”

“No!?  A terrible deal, then?”

“Ah, ha, finally, a NO vote in the referendum.”  (Rubs hands together with glee.)

“Now, an apocalyptically catastrophic deal on one hand, countered with a reasonably generous plan for support if they leave!”

“No? No!?”

So, Schauble, having realized that Greece will not leave no matter how terrible the deal inflicted on them, must now convince not Greeks, but other key European decision makers.

The third possibility is that a truly radical government takes over in Greece: Likely Fascists or Communists. Someone who actually says what they mean about austerity and will do whatever it takes to end it.

Remember, Hitler did turn the German economy around. Mussolini turned around the Italian one.

One can hope it will be a slightly nicer set of people, but we are definitely in a period where the “decent” people mostly don’t have the necessary courage to stand up for anything that matters; certainly not the courage to actually face down neo-liberalism.

This isn’t a joke post, though I wish it was. I want everyone to remember the rule of prosperity and rights.

You have exactly and only the rights and prosperity which are useful to your lords and masters or those you are able to secure from them with force or the credible threat of force.

Any rights or prosperity you have beyond that will always be taken away from you.

Always.

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