The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Financial Crisis Page 9 of 13

Progressive Enablers

So, these last few days we’ve seen virtually every major progressive blogger say that the health care bill was worth passing and that progressive members of Congress who promised to vote against it if it didn’t include a public option were right to do so.  (I, of course, think that the public option as offered was crap, but that’s not the point, they made explicit promises not to vote for a bill that didn’t include one.)

The argument I have heard is that of course they never meant it, “everyone” knew they were lying, and that it is unreasonable to expect them to keep to their word.

What I take from this is that most progressive bloggers believe that we should just assume that politicians are liars and not take them at their word.

Is that really what they want to argue?  That all progressive politicians, every single one, are liars who won’t keep their word?

I’m willing to agree with them, if that’s what they’re trying to say, or rather, I think they’re gutless.  I think when the pressure is put on them, they fold.

And almost every  “major progressive” forgives them, which is why they keep lying and keep folding, because they know they will be forgiven for being gutless liars.

That’s the behaviour most progressive bloggers, and everyone else making excuses for them, enables.

This entire generation, whether in media or power, is hopeless.  A write off. Gutless, stupid and liars.  They all need to go.  And forgive me, that includes most of the high ranked bloggers, many of whom I consider my friends.  Instead of being people who challenged power, who had the moral and intellectual integrity to speak from a place of principle, they have become apologists for the worst sort of craven sell-outs imaginable, constantly decided that if some group wins it’s ok to hurt other groups, including by taking away their rights.

The blogosphere I grew up in, is dead.  And the hope that the Democrats would be enough better than the Republicans to fix America, well, that too is dead.

Lowest Bank Lending since

Whoever would have expected? (h/t Agonist)

U.S. banks posted last year their sharpest decline in lending since 1942

Of course, this is exactly what we warned would happen.

Can you say Japanification?  Sure you can.  Banks are impaired.  Badly.  So they don’t want to lend.  To get lending going again it was necessary to take over bankrupt banks, to siphon off bad loans, to force both bondholders and stockholders to take their losses.

Larger banks are doing better than smaller banks, which should be no surprise as they’re the ones the Feds concentrated on bailing out because if you bailed out small banks they couldn’t be bought up for cents on the dollar by Geithner and Bernanke’s friends in the financial industry.

Refusing to do the right thing has consequences.  This is one of them.

A Smart Proposal From Volcker and Obama

Guess a kick in the head sometimes knocks some sense into people.  I confess I’m surprised.  Maybe they can learn.

The White House wants commercial banks that take deposits from customers to be barred from investing on behalf of the bank itself—what’s known as proprietary trading—and said the administration will seek new limits on the size and concentration of financial institutions.

… Banks shielded from risk through federal-deposit insurance, or aided in financial crises by low-interest loans from the Federal Reserve Board, would no longer be allowed to engage in trading unrelated to their customers’ interests, one senior administration official said.

Under the proposed rule, commercial banks would be prohibited from owning, investing in or advising hedge funds or private equity firms. Bank regulators would not be simply given the discretion to enforce such rules. They would be required to do so.

Administration officials said they also want to toughen an existing cap on bank market share. Since 1994, no bank can have more than 10% of the nation’s insured deposits. The Obama administration wants that cap to include non-insured deposits and other assets.

This is the right thing to do.  I agree with Johnson that they should also launch anti-trust investigations of the banks.  I would add, that in addition, they should launch criminal fraud investigations into bank behaviour leading up to the financial crisis.  Keep these people so tied up, and get them so scared that they want peace at any cost.

As Johnson notes, it seems unlikely this can pass the Senate.  But if Obama wants to not have a disaster in the 2010 elections, he should make these sort of actions the centerpiece of his administration for the next year.  Run against the banks, and go hardcore populist.  Because if he doesn’t, the Republicans will go faux populist, and win on it.

We’ll see, in the next few months, how serious Obama is about taking.  Is this for real and will he pursue it with all his might, making a fight of it, or he will pursue it like everything else he’s done—half-heartedly, and for show?  Will he push it hard in the Senate, or when the Senate balks, will he shrug and say ‘whatever Ben Nelson wants?”

I’m not optimistic, but at least, in a pleasing change from most of his behaviour since the election, Obama is talking about doing the right thing.

TARP Wasn’t All the Relief

This is all very nice:

“We want our money back and we’re going to get it,” Mr Obama said, pledging to “recover every single dime the American people are owed” for the troubled asset relief programme bail-out fund.

But would we stop acting as if TARP was the only money used in bailouts? It was much more than that.

Incentives Do Not Work To Change Bank Behavior

The FDIC has put out a proposal to penalize banks whose pay practices incentivize risky behavior.

It won’t work.  The time is long past to stop using incentives and to simply tell them what to do.  The banks in Britain are eating almost the entire cost of the banker bonus tax of 50%.  Bankers have no concern with the health of their banks, only with the size of their own salaries, since they know that if necessary governments will spend any amount of money to bail them out if they go under.

This is not going to change, because we just spent trillions proving it to them, and they won’t believe words over actions, as they shouldn’t.

Getting Ready for the next Disaster

Via Corrente. Bloomberg:

[Barney Frank’s bill, H.R. 4173] supports the biggest banks. It authorizes Federal Reserve banks to provide as much as $4 trillion in emergency funding the next time Wall Street crashes. So much for “no-more-bailouts” talk. That is more than twice what the Fed pumped into markets this time around.

Best of all, the bill contains a provision that, in the event of another government request for emergency aid to prop up the financial system, debate in Congress be limited to just 10 hours.

Hahahahahaha.

1) the next crisis is inevitable, and the elites know it

2) they don’t intend to get stuck with the bill

3) Barney Frank is a whore.  I find it funny that Dodd’s the one in trouble, because Frank is far far worse, and has been all along.  He’s also smart enough to know exactly what he’s doing.

How To Bail Out Ordinary Mortgage Holders And Not Just Banks

I wrote this post originally in September of 2008.  It appears that Fannie and Freddie are getting their unlimited line of credit because underwater mortgages are sharply up, and they are expecting foreclosures to go through the roof next year, as well as the commercial real-estate market to collapse.  So, here’s what should have been done for homeowners well over a year ago.

I have received multiple e-mails today suggesting that instead of the bailing out banks at the expense of taxpayers, the government should give mortgage holders money to pay off their mortgages.

Both ideas are bad. But there is a better solution.

Why the Government Shouldn’t Just Bail Out The Banks

The government is talking about setting up a Trust to buy distressed debt then sell it again. The problem is that the Trust company will simply bail out banks at taxpayer expense without helping mortgage holders much. The mortgages it sells will still be underwater, or too expensive for many people to service, especially as their houses lose value.

The other proposal, just giving money to people to pay for their mortgages, is bad also. Housing prices are actually dropping, most mortgages issues were bad mortgages with horrible penalty clauses, based on assumptions about housing values which are just wrong. House prices are going to keep dropping.

What the government should do instead is set up a Trust to buy mortgages at a discount, then reset them to 20, 30 or 50 year fixed mortgages with a reduced face amount. If the house is later sold, half of the increase goes to the government, so that taxpayers make a profit. The mortgage cannot be paid off before the end of its term so that financial scavengers cannot come around and, as they did over the last ten years, say “get rid of that mortgage, and take ours. It’s better. Honest!”, because we know that when they say better, they don’t mean better for the mortgage holder. The mortgage is attached to the property and is transfered to any new buyer. And the mortgage cannot be removed from the property, and any new mortgages attached to the property are junior to the government mortgage.

End results:

a) a floor is set for mortgage prices. (Whatever discount the government is buying at. Probably 60% to 70%, but it should be based on what the long run price was in the area before the housing bubble.) This ends the confidence crisis in these securities, because there is now a market price—what the Trust will pay.

b) It helps homeowners stay in their homes.

c) It gets rid of overly complex mortgages and puts in their place a dead simple mortgage that anyone can understand.

d) It punishes lenders, which they deserve, for making loans they should never have made.

e) While it does keep homeowners in their homes, it doesn’t let them off scot-free either. In exchange for a good mortgage they can service, they give up some of the future profits on sales in their houses.

f) The government will almost certainly make a long term profit on this. This is important, because it’s not fair for people who aren’t underwater on mortgages to spend hundreds of billions or trillions bailing out those who are without some expectation that in the end it won’t be more than just a transfer of wealth to them and to investors and banks.

This bailout can be done right. It’s up to Democrats, who appear to be in danger of stampeding into a hasty decision, to stand firm and make sure it’s done right. The last two times they didn’t stand firm and do things right, we got the Patriot Act and the Iraq War. This is too important for Democratic fecklessness. Too important for them to just give the Bush administration whatever it wants.

If they do give the administration what it wants, then Wall Street and the Banks just got bailed out, no help goes to ordinary people and you get stuck with a trillion dollar bill. Taxpayers get all the toxic assets, but Wall Street, who paid themselves more in bonuses in 2007 then 80 million Americans got in raises, keeps the profits.

Democrats need to stand up for ordinary Americans and do the right thing.

Update December 2009: Well, obviously they did give the Bush administration what it wanted, then they gave the banks everything they wanted in 2009.  The result has been as predicted, except the bill may be even larger than I thought at that time.  It is not too late (in theory) to do the right thing.  If the Obama administration can spend unlimited money without Congressional approval to bail out Freddie and Fannie, then they can spend the money instead to set up a Housing Trust which helps everyone but also spreads the pain so it isn’t only ordinary people taking it on the chin for once.

Oh Wait, the Freddie/Fannie Scam is Now Unlimited

Update: Go read Numerian.

Per Bloomberg:

The U.S. Treasury Department will remove the caps on aid to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the next three years, to allay investor concerns that the companies will exhaust the available government assistance.

The two companies, the largest sources of mortgage financing in the U.S., are currently under government conservatorship and have caps of $200 billion each on backstop capital from the Treasury. Under the new agreement announced today, these limits can rise as needed to cover net worth losses through 2012.

The Obama administration is “beginning to realize it’s not getting better and it’s not likely to get better” soon in the housing market, said Julian Mann, who helps oversee $5.5 billion in bonds as a vice president at First Pacific Advisors LLC in Los Angeles. “They don’t want the foreclosures now, so they’re saying, we’ll pay whatever it takes to continue to kick the can down the road.”

Basically, at this point, almost all mortgage lending is guaranteed by the federal government under the FHA, or it doesn’t happen.  Private lending has pretty much dried up.

Since there’s no way Freddie and Fannie took unlimited losses, one has to wonder what all this money is going to be used for.  Is it to make up losses they don’t want to admit?  Is it to make future bad mortgage loans?  Is it so they can take bad debt from the banks and put the government at risk for it?

Notice also how they’ve made an unlimited commitment without consulting Congress.  You only need Congressional approval to spend money on wars and healthcare, when it comes to bailing out banks, apparently the Presidency controls the power of the purse all by itself.

It’s also interesting that this is unlimited till the end of 2012.

(See also the earlier post when it was just a 400 billion increase, not unlimited.)

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