Author: Ian Welsh Page 22 of 417

On January 23, 2025

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There’s a lot of pushback on DEI these days, with some major companies ending their DEI programs. This has been tied into the competence crisis, which is bullshit.

Let’s put the idea that there isn’t massive discrimination to rest. There have been many studies. One found that identical resumes from people with black names vs. people with white names had half the interview requests. A meta-study found the effect less overall: 24%.

Now I don’t know if DEI overcomes that, but modern studies don’t find any less of a gap, so I’m guessing “no”, though the effect on promotion may be more significant.

The obvious solution is to do something similar to the how orchestras evaluate musicians: they place them behind a screen, and they play their music. The evaluators don’t know who’s playing, or anything about them.

Modern technology makes this viable: wipe the resume of any identifying remarks and do the same with any testing. Have the interview with an avatar with a computer masked voice. If you really want to evaluate entirely on merit: their record and their abilities, that would be the way to do it.

The counter-argument is “cultural fit” and I’m not going to say that there’s nothing to it. The evidence is that diverse teams improve quality at the cost of speed and increased conflict but the benefits don’t accrue for teams which don’t work together much. If you’re doing something you already know how to do, where quality isn’t much of a factor, speed is and team members don’t interact much anyway, then there’s a case for “cultural fit” teams. But if you’re dealing with uncertainty, or quality is more important than speed, then a diverse team is probably better.

(Amusingly the evidence is that startup funds perform less well without diversity, but silicon valley hates diversity and prioritizes fit, which is one reason for their under-performance the last couple decades since the tech-bros took charge.)

I’m not a huge fan of DEI. It introduces a variable that shouldn’t matter. Problem is that variable already matters, and DEI is an effort to counter people hiring less competent people because of prejudice.

But there is another solution: one that prioritizes merit, at least for hiring (and it could be extended to some types of promotion decisions). Decisions based on blinding out gender and race.

If the real issue is merit and not something else, this is the obvious way to go. Strange how rarely it is suggested.

Actuaries Weigh In On Climate Change Effects

On January 22, 2025

The full report has a range of probabilities, and 4 billion deaths is on the table as one of the possibilities. (pdf)

Actuaries are probably the world’s foremost experts on risk. The Institute & Faculty of Actuaries has weighed in on the likely effects of climate change (pdf):

They expect this between 2050 and 2070, but it appears to be based on reaching over 2 degrees increase. I’d personally expect it sooner. Whatever the case, 2 billion deaths is one of the more extreme numbers I’ve seen from a mainstream source. (I personally expect at least half of the world’s population to die.)

By 2070 to 2090 they expect as much as a 50% loss of GDP.

The global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090, unless immediate policy action on risks posed by the climate crisis is taken. Populations are already impacted by food system shocks, water insecurity, heat stress and infectious diseases. If unchecked, mass mortality, mass displacement, severe economic contraction and conflict become more likely.

I think the simplest and most important quote is this one:

Our society and economy fundamentally depend on the Earth system which provides essentials such as food, water, energy and raw materials.

A lot of people seem to miss that the economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment. Mother nature has the final say on everything.

As long as we’re banging on about climate change, this lovely little chart shows the effects on precipitation of climate change. (Hotter air means more water in the air, and thus more rain and snow.) In other words, expect more floods, mudslides and so on. Notice that the slope appears to be accelerating.

Remember, realism is not pessimism.

Drill, Baby, Drill; Screw Immigrants; End the 14th Amendment; Climate Change Ho! Trump’s Day One Actions

On January 21, 2025

The Guardian has a pretty good list of Trump’s executive actions day one.

What can I say, it’s an old picture, but I like it

January 6th pardons are the most interesting, to me. Trump should have granted these pardons before leaving office in 2020 but I’m sure they’re still a great relief to those charged or imprisoned. (I actually know one guy who wound up in prison because of J6.) When I say “should” I’m not expressing support for them storming the capital, just noting that a smart leader protects his most fanatical followers. Might need them again, after all.

There are a bunch of oil and climate related orders, which amount to “drill more, and screw any anti-climate change policies or agreements” including leaving the Paris accords. I’m not that worked up, Biden massively increased drilling too, he just protected a few places from it. As for the Paris agreement, it’s always been a dead letter. I notice that Musk has skated by, at least so far, Trump got rid of the “goal” to have half of all autos be electrical, but didn’t get rid of the subsidies, without which Musk would lose hundreds of billions of dollars .

Trump also ordered more work on the wall (Biden hadn’t actually stopped building barriers), ended appointments, seems to have effectively ended refugees and most impressively ordered all government departments not to issue documents related to birthright citizenship of any children born to illegal refugees. This is in direct violation of the 14th amendment as written, but given the makeup of the Supreme Court, the 14th may be a dead letter. He’s also declared an “emergency” so that troops can be deployed to the border, which would otherwise be illegal.

He has declared Mexican cartels terrorists and I’d guess he’s thinking of launching raids across the border, without Mexican government permission, which is going to be a nightmare.

All genders other than male and female have been declared non-existent, all policies allowing or encouraging gender change are disallowed, and the government can’t fund anything. Anti-trans hysteria continues. Pure pandering from Trump, as he’s suggested in the past that he doesn’t really care but is happy to whip up crowds with it. DEI related executive orders have been rescinded. Won’t do a thing to help the competency crisis, but more red meat.

Trump has also removed Schedule F protection for Federal civil servants from arbitrary dismissal. This will be challenged, but the consensus seems to be he’s within his rights. I’m not super worked about this, winning political parties should be able to put their people in place and it will work to the advantage of future Presidents as well.

Overall there’s not much here that’s surprising. For immigrants the real question is his planned immigrant roundups and expelling, which seem likely to start soon. The border guards were always his most loyal servants among the paramilitary forces and I’m sure they’re salivating at the opportunity to beat people up and degrade them.

The most interesting thing is that Musk has thus far bought himself a reprieve. Were I him, I’d showboat less, because Trump doesn’t like people who steal his limelight. Musk was essentially created by Obama era policies and subsidies favoring both private spaceflight and electric cars, and he can be destroyed just as easily by a hostile President.

Has Israel Lost?

On January 20, 2025

There’s a lot of celebrating of the Gaza ceasefire. Hamas troops are openly on the streets, hostages from both sides are being returned (that only Israeli captives are called hostages is ludicrous) and it’s clear that Israel came nowhere close to destroying Hamas. This is an impressive accomplishment, Gaza is only 25×5 miles: Gaza is tiny. Hamas’s tunnel strategy clearly worked.

That said, Gaza is a wreck.

The official civilian casualty numbers are under 100K, but I suspect a full population study will find the death toll far higher. All Gaza hospitals are non-operational, often destroyed entirely and a high percentage of the nurses and doctors are dead. Water and power infrastructure has been smashed, and even if Israel turns their side back on most of Gaza will be without.

A great deal will depend on whether the ceasefire sticks. Netanyahu has suggested that the war will start up again.

So, with all due respect to Hamas, Yemen and Hezbollah, it’s going to depend on Trump. Of the three Yemen has the most leverage, it can keep attacking if Israel keeps violating the ceasefire and the only way to get it to stop is to keep the ceasefire, which will re-open shipping as nothing else can, but by itself it’s not sufficient.

However ultimately Trump has plenty of leverage. As Yitzak Brick, the ex-IDF general said:

“All of our missiles, the ammunition, the precision-guided bombs, all the airplanes and bombs, it’s all from the U.S. The minute they turn off the tap, you can’t keep fighting. You have no capability. … Everyone understands that we can’t fight this war without the United States. Period.”

The war doesn’t start up again if Trump is willing to use his leverage. It’s that simple. Trump doesn’t seem to like war, but he’s also surrounded by Zionists and hawks. Israel has already, as usual, violated the ceasefire, as it has thousands of times in Southern Lebanon. It will attempt to find an excuse to re-start full scale bombing.

But if Trump really doesn’t want that, it doesn’t happen. That simple. Israel still has tens of thousands of internal refugees, a huge loss of middle and small sized businesses and it also requires US financial and economic aid. Israel can’t fight if Trump brings down the hammer.

I will note, that at least so far, it appears that those who refused to vote for Biden because of the Gaza genocide were justified, and that those Muslim leaders who appeared publicly with Trump appear vindicated. Biden was pro-genocide, and refused to his leverage to stop the war. Trump, even before taking power, said that if the hostages weren’t returned by January 20th, there’d be hell to pay, and lo-and-behold, on January 19th the hostages were returned. Trump’s envoy forced Netanyahu to meet him during Shabbat, after Netanyahu initially refused.

Israel has a great deal of power in the West, thru its operatives and donations, but it is the tail to America’s dog, and a determined President, like Reagan in Lebanon or George Bush Sr. can stand against if they decide to. Since Trump can’t have a third term, he doesn’t need to kiss AIPAC’s ass.

We’ll see how it plays out, but at least the start has been promising.

The Tik-Tok Ban Is Hypocritical Nonsense

On January 17, 2025

The justification for the TikTok ban is that it supposedly collects a ton of data.

TikTok’s data collection practices are insane. The app gather data that other apps normally consider off limits, including the content of users’ private messages, and the full contents of a user’s device contacts.

I agree, this is insane. But it isn’t unusual, and it isn’t even the worst in class.

That’s a lot of data – but it’s worth noting that TikTok does not seem to collect more data than other social media companies. A privacy researcher working with the Washington Post found that TikTok gathers less data than Facebook in some cases.

So it’s obviously not about data collection. As for sharing with the Chinese government, well, Google sells user data to the Chinese thru third parties.

Perhaps it has something to do with TikTok users being against genocide?

But most revealing of all is that Biden and Trump are both trying to avoid a TikTok shutdown. See, what Congress wants is the Chinese parent company to sell TikTok to an American. But TikTok has refused and has said it will shut down on the 19th.

And here Biden is saying he won’t enforce the shutdown, and Trump saying he wants to find a solution.

It’s a shakedown.

Whatever it is, it isn’t because Congress has suddenly decided to crack down on apps collecting too much user data.

The Tech-Company Fad For Laying Off “Low Performers” Is A Bad Idea

On January 17, 2025

Problem is that most performance reviews have nothing to do with performance. They ask other people to rate you, often the so-called 360 degree rating, but sometimes it’s just your boss. Problem is, people suck at rating.

General Electric, once one of the most important companies in America started firing the bottom 10% of performers every year when Jack Welch took over. Seems smart, right? Strangely, however, GE was driven into the ground by Welch. It made a lot of money, for a while, but it was burning down the house and now it’s a has been company. The routine firing wasn’t the only reason, but it was part of it.

Lately I’m seeing companies like Meta and Microsoft saying they’re doing large lay-offs of the lowest performers. Seems smart, eh?

what you find in statistical studies is that their ratings only correlate to their own personality. We don’t see other people, we see ourselves. Groups don’t make this better; increasing the number of people who are bad at rating others doesn’t, in aggregate, turn the ratings good. Everyone is wrong. (There’s a bunch of other statistical stuff here, but what it comes down to is everyone is that there is NO way to measure the performance of knowledge workers.

Generally the best thing to do, counter-intuitive as it is, is have people rate themselves. When asking others, the questions are:

Who do you plan to promote?

Who do you go to get X done well?

Who do you go to when you need extraordinary results.

This is still subjective information, but it is reliable.

The better question to ask during lay-offs is “does this job need to be done?” If it does, unless it’s clear the person isn’t doing his job (in which case they should have already been fired), then lay them off.

Lay-offs generally do more harm than good. There’s plenty of evidence of this. Companies don’t lay-off into greatness, it’s a sign something is wrong and muscle gets cut at least as often as fat.

But using performance reviews (which, as they exist, should be tossed anyway) is extra stupid even if it seems like “duh, of course” idea.

Doctorow Has the Best Idea for How Canada Should Retaliate to Trump’s Tariffs + Make It So Americans Can’t Drive

On January 16, 2025

Just break the IP laws and set up app stores with 5% feeds. Create jail break kits for John Deere tractors, and so on.

There’s no reason that a Canadian app store would have to confine itself to Canadian software authors, either. Canadian app stores could offer 5% commissions on sales to US and global software authors, and provide jailbreaking kits that allows device owners all around the world to install the Canadian app stores where software authors don’t get ripped off by American Big Tech companies.

Canadian companies like Honeybee already make “front-ends” for John Deere tractors – these are the components that turn a tractor into a plow, or a thresher, or another piece of heavy agricultural equipment. Honeybee struggles constantly to get its products to interface with Deere tractors, because Deere uses digital locks to block its products:

https://honeybee.ca/

Canada could produce jailbreaking kits for John Deere tractors, too – not just for Honeybee. Every ag-tech company in the world would benefit from commercially available, professionally supported John Deere jailbreaking kits. So would farmers, because these kits would restore farmers’ Right to Repair their own tractors:

This is the ultimate “break glass in case of fire” situation. US elites make a ton of their money from IP, and breaking it would hurt them extremely. It’s something I thought Russia could do in the face of American sanctions, but why not Canada? If the US won’t keep its deals with us, any deals we have with it are ours to break.

And Doctorow’s right that this is the perfect retaliation: any sort of exit-tariffs or retaliatory tariffs hurt Canada too. This just hurts the US, and hurts the decision makers, not ordinary people. Heck, many of them might benefit.

To make this really work, and make sure the population backs it, share half the profits with Canadians: just split them evenly.

If the US wants Canada to not be its good ally, then why not become a semi-neutral country? We can sell to the US and China and Europe, and become a data haven.

The other, less fun, but very devastating thing to do is to cut off raw crude. US refineries are reliant on Canadian crude oil, and by about a month after Canada doing so there would be absolute shortages of gasoline in half of America. Not “the price is high”, but “we don’t have it.” Canada can handle this for a few months. Just cover the company losses and insist they keep paying workers until we say otherwise.

Finally, and obviously, all countries being hit my Trump tariffs should get together, support each other and work to hurt the US and Trump as much as possible. Trump’s handed us allies, we should use them.