Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Trump’s Budget & The NATO 5% Of GDP Requirement Have The Same Effect

Despite all the flakiness and back and forth Trump’s actions have a unified purpose. Like the Democrats, but even more so, they disproportionately benefit the rich. (We’ll leave aside the pandemic response, which is complicated and an emergency.)

This table is older, and based on the House version of Trump’s budget and tariffs, but should be substantially correct:

Tariffs effect the rich less, because they spend less of their income on goods. The biggest companies often get exceptions to the tariffs as well. Currently that includes Apple, Coca-Cola, Stellantis and GM.

We are also seeing signs of “Greedflation”, using the tariffs as an excuse to raise prices faster than costs. This was huge during the pandemic,and it will be huge this time. Overall the really reach will benefit from tariffs, not be hurt by them. Trump talked a good game about making sure companies wouldn’t use tariffs as an excuse to raise prices, but that’s all it was, talk. For tariffs to improve the lives of the working and middle class, they would have to translate into well paid jobs, and there is no effective mechanism for that in America.

Let us turn then to the “NATO nations must spend 5% of GDP on their military.” That’s a lot, and it means that either taxes must be raised (they won’t be except for consumption taxes on the poor) or other priorities must be slashed. So the poor and middle class in those countries will get it in the neck.

Now, if that 5% was spent on domestically produced weapons and on hiring more soldiers and support staff, at least it would get back into recirculation. Indeed, there’ll be some of it, but most countries have agreed to buy Americans weapons and equipment.

And who will that benefit the most? The American rich.

In some cases buying American is so foolish it boggles the mind. Canada’s only real active military threat is America, and American weapon systems these days are mostly online and can’t be used if America doesn’t want them to be, even leaving aside the possibility of simply bricking them with an update.

But in general, increased military spending was an opportunity for industrial policy and to cut the aprons to the US, and actual statesmen would smile at Trump, make the promises and use the 5% in ways that would benefit their own country. Instead most of the benefits will flow to America.

As for the idea that America is a reliable security partner, well, they couped Ukraine, built its army up massively, encouraged it not make peace when easy and favorable terms were offered and is now cutting a deal with Russia after extorting mineral concessions from Ukraine.

Never ally with America if there is any other option.

But the core point here is simply that the “does it make the rich even richer” metric, which works for American politicians as a group, is even more predictive of Trump. Oh sure, he’ll throw the hoi polloi some social policy red meat, and yes, some of the moderately rich are being hurt by his policies, but the real rich, they’ll mostly make out like bandits.

Until China eats their lunch, which they are and will.

Right now America’s policies appear to be “loot the satrapies and form a non-Chinese bloc which is smaller, weaker and poorer than the China bloc.”

Smells like the USSR to me, except the USSR started out very strong and with higher economic growth than the West. America is trying the strategy as its in terminal decline.

 

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 17, 2025

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 17, 2025

by Tony Wikrent

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025 [mediaite.com]

Pentagon plan would create military ‘reaction force’ for civil unrest 

Alex Horton and David Ovalle, August 12, 2025 [Washington Post]

The Trump administration is evaluating plans that would establish a “Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force” composed of hundreds of National Guard troops tasked with rapidly deploying into American cities facing protests or other unrest, according to internal Pentagon documents reviewed by The Washington Post.
The plan calls for 600 troops to be on standby at all times so they can deploy in as little as one hour, the documents say. They would be split into two groups of 300 and stationed at military bases in Alabama and Arizona, with purview of regions east and west of the Mississippi River, respectively.

Siege Mentality: Trump’s DC Takeover to Crush His Own Demons — This is not a distraction from the Epstein situation, it’s a projection of it.

Jim Stewartson, Aug 11, 2025 [MindWar]

Immigration agents told a teenage US citizen: ‘You’ve got no rights.’ He secretly recorded his brutal arrest

[The Guardian, via The Big Picture August 10, 2025]

Video from Kenny Laynez-Ambrosio, 18, puts fresh scrutiny on the harsh tactics used to reach the Trump administration’s ambitious enforcement targets.

Trump: Now the Cops Can ‘Do Whatever the Hell They Want’

Harold Meyerson, August 12, 2025 [The American Prospect]

…D.C.’s police union reacted to Trump’s takeover with unconcealed glee; like many cop unions, it gives voice to those officers who see themselves as occupying hostile territory and being held back from sufficiently forceful action. The union, in an official statement it released yesterday, said it “acknowledges and supports the President’s announcement this morning to assume temporary control of the MPD in response to the escalating crime crisis in Washington, DC. The Union agrees that crime is spiraling out of control, and immediate action is necessary to restore public safety.”….

Just as the presence of troops in L.A. provoked protests, so Trump is hoping that the quality of his now enhanced D.C. policing will provoke protests even if the quantity of newly deployed troops and agents isn’t in itself up to the task. In his press conference yesterday, he all but ordered the cops to run amok. Currently, he said, “they’re not allowed to do anything. But now they are allowed to do whatever the hell they want.”

Masked Border Protection Agents Open Fire on Family’s Truck After Smashing Its Windows

Brad Reed, Aug 17, 2025 [CommonDreams]

A video of the incident filmed from inside the truck showed the passengers asked the agents to provide identification, which they declined to do.

An agent was then heard demanding that the father, who had been driving the truck, get out of the vehicle. Seconds later, the agent started smashing the car’s windows in an attempt to get inside the vehicle.

The father then hit the gas to try to escape, after which several shots could be heard as agents opened fire. Local news station KTLA reported that, after the father successfully fled the scene, he called local police and asked for help because “masked men” had opened fire on his truck.

“Federalizing” D.C. 

Steve Vladek [via Naked Capitalism 08-12-2025]

…it seems worth putting into context both the historical relationship between the federal government and the District of Columbia and the relevant current statutes. To make a long story short, the Constitution gives the federal government “plenary” authority over the “seat of government.” But just about everything else—including the fact that the District of Columbia is the “seat of government”—is up to Congress.

And although Congress has retained, both for itself and the President, more authority over D.C. than over any other federal enclave (including, as especially relevant today, with regard to the National Guard and the Metropolitan Police Department), the critical point for present purposes is that it was Congress that created and stood up a local government in 1973. Congress may have the constitutional power to return the city to true federal control, but the President can’t do it all by himself….

Trump’s crackdown hits Washington — federalized police NOT deployed in DC’s high crime areas

ZACK STANTON, 08/17/2025 [politico.com/playbook]

For supporters of the president’s actions, crime in the district is a blaring crisis that merits an overwhelming federal response to avoid something like failed-state status. They point out that crime, while on a downward trend, is unacceptably commonplace (the district’s homicide rate is still “almost as high as New York’s at its most dangerous, in 1990,” NYT’s Maureen Dowd notes). It demands a round-the-clock response, with FBI agents patrolling the street on foot. … And yet, much of the federal response has been concentrated in some of the safest areas of the city rather than those neighborhoods most devastated by crime. More than half of the district’s homicides last year occurred across the Anacostia River in Wards 7 and 8, The Atlantic’s Michael Powell writes; as recently as Friday, they had yet to see much of a federal response, per USA Today’s Josh Meyer.

How Pretexts Work — A manufactured crisis unfolds.

Hamilton Nolan, Aug 15, 2025 [How Things Work]

Trump’s Invasion Of D.C. Started On K Street

[The Lever, August 12, 2025]

Before the president seized control of Washington, D.C.’s police, corporate lobbyists posed as local businesses to drum up panic about local crime.

Heather Cox Richardson. August 11, 2025 [Letters from an American]

The administration is also consolidating power over the economy. Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal noted today that the U.S. is marching toward a form of state capitalism in which Trump looks much like the Chinese Communist Party, exercising political control not just over government agencies but over companies themselves. “A generation ago conventional wisdom held that as China liberalized, its economy would come to resemble America’s,” Ip wrote. “Instead, capitalism in America is starting to look like China.”

Ip points to the government’s partial control over U.S. Steel that it took as a condition for Nippon Steel’s takeover, the $1.5 trillion of promised investment from trading partners that Trump has claimed the right to direct personally, the 15% of certain chip sales of Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices to China that will go to the administration (although who or what entity will get that money I can’t figure out), and Trump’s demand that the chief executive of Intel resign.

Ip calls this system of state capitalism “a hybrid between socialism and capitalism in which the state guides the decisions of nominally private enterprises.” He notes that it is a “sea change from the free market ethos the U.S. once embodied.”

Ip also notes that state capitalism is a means of political control, using the power of the state to crush political challenges. “In Trump’s first term, CEOs routinely spoke out when they disagreed with his policies such as on immigration and trade,” Ip writes. “Now, they shower him with donations and praise, or are mostly silent.” Ip pointed out that Trump is deploying financial power and regulatory power to cow media companies, banks, law firms, and government agencies he thinks are not sufficiently supportive.

Trump Has a Bonkers New Rating System for Private Companies

Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling, August 15, 2025 [The New Republic]

The Trump administration has released a scorecard to rank the endeavors of some 553 companies and trade associations to advance the president’s agenda and his “big, beautiful bill.”

Organizations are ranked on the sheet as strong, moderate, or low, Axios reported Friday, with ratings built off social media posts, press releases, video testimonials, ads, White House event attendance, and other budget law–oriented efforts.

The data is being circulated among White House senior staff as a temperature gauge on how to interact with companies and open calls with K Street (a nickname for Washington’s business district)….

Congress may have the spending power, but Trump can usurp it if they won’t protect it. And they haven’t

Joyce Vance, Aug 14, 2025 [Civil Discourse]

This afternoon, a three-judge panel in the D.C. Circuit signed off on the Trump administration’s efforts to block funds for foreign assistance that have been appropriated by Congress. Despite arguments made by the plaintiffs that this violates Congress’ Article II Spending powers, the court ruled that only the head of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) has the ability to bring Impoundment Control Act (ICA) claims. Impoundment refers to a decision by a president to delay spending or withhold funds that Congress has allocated in the budget. The GAO was not a party to this lawsuit, although it has made multiple findings that this administration has violated the ICA in other regards.

The court’s decision was 2-1, with Judges Karen Henderson and Gregory Katsas in the majority and Judge Florence Pan dissenting. As Judge Pan notes in dissent, they reframed the issues argued by the government in order to rule in its favor, so that they could “excuse the government’s forfeiture of what they perceive to be a key argument, and then rule in the President’s favor on that ground, thus departing from procedural norms that are designed to safeguard the court’s impartiality and independence.” There will likely be a motion to ask the full court to rehear the case en banc, with all active judges sitting, before the losing party takes it to the Supreme Court….

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Politicians V.S. Serial Killers: Introducing The Serial Killer Count

One of the themes of this blog is that, with some exceptions, the people who are most dangerous are politicians. Since rich people own politicians, indirectly, they are included.

We’ve been, as a society, obsessed with serial killers for some time. They are seen, by many, as the ultimate evil. The average serial killer is responsible for about six deaths.

The Iraq war killed about half a million people (we don’t really know, since we didn’t count, but the post-fact estimates are credible.) That means George W. Bush, as the primary driver of the Iraq War, was the equivalent of over eighty-three thousand serial killers.

If we want to spread out the blame, US and UK politician who were for the war were the equivalent of over 83,000 serial killers.

The high end estimate of active serial killers in America is 2,000 active killers.

Recently I did a bit of research into the effect of Clinton’s “Welfare Reform” bill, in which he cut access to Welfare significantly. Interestingly, it’s really impossible to tell how many people the bill killed or made homeless (which is a delayed death sentence).

We don’t count.

But I’m guessing Bill’s serial killer number is pretty high. Let’s ignore how many Americans he killed. Iraq sanctions killed somewhere between 200K to a million people, with Madeleine Albright famously saying that if 500K children had been killed, it was worth it.

Even 200K suggests a serial killer count of over 33,000.

Obama’s policies deliberately helped banks steal (foreclose) American homes (steal is the correct terminology, they used documents with fake information and signatures.)  Once again, we don’t really know how many people had their homes taken, but 750K were included in a single class action suit, so that’s the lower bound estimate. I wonder how many of those became homeless or died as a result? Again, we don’t know, but it’s bound to be a lot of people. There’s no possibility that it doesn’t massively increase Obama’s “serial killer count.”

Yesterday we discussed prosecuting those who have enabled the Gaza genocide. Of course there’s plenty of blame to go around, but assuming a death count of half a million, which is going to be a low end estimate, we’ve got a serial killer count of over 83K.

Don’t worry about serial killers. They kill hardly anyone.

Politicians, at the behest of their owners, on the other hand, now they have bloody, bloody hands.

 

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The Nuremberg Movement

It’s time to start a movement for new Nuremberg trials. After WWII many Nazis were tried for genocide and various war crimes, and they were executed.

I remember a long time ago my friend Stirling Newberry told me that western elites had only one moral rule, “Don’t be Nazis.” Anything short of being a Nazi was OK: mass murder that didn’t quite reach genocide, mass impoverishment, police states that didn’t quite reach “we are the Gestapo” levels, etc…

This struck me as not much of a red line, you can do a lot of evil without being as bad as the Nazis, after all.

But they’ve crossed even this red line. They’re Nazis. Trump, Trudeau, Biden, Harris, almost every leader and politician in Europe, outside of Spain and Ireland, certainly virtually every German and British politician, has aided and abetted genocide. We’re not just talking looking the other way, they’ve locked up those opposed to genocide and they’ve sent weapons and in many cases (Britain) they’ve actively defended Israel from those trying to stop the genocide militarily, like Yemen and Hezbollah.

Nor are we just talking politicians. One journalist was executed at Nuremberg, and most of the journalists in the West have covered for genocide now. The New York Times, the BBC, the Washington Post, the Atlantic, the Guardian, the Telegram, every major TV news show, etc, etc… They knew genocide was happening, they lied about it, they did everything they could to make sure it could continue.

And, of course, almost every Israeli politician and almost all members of America’s congress, many members of Britain’s and Canada’s House of Commons, most Germany politicians, most EU officials, and so on.

All of these people need to hang from the neck till dead. All of them. If we don’t have “supports genocide” as a red line, we have no red lines at all.

This isn’t politically possible now. They’re in power. But they won’t be in power forever. Never forget. Never forgive. And ensure justice.

Fair trials and if they aided genocide, hang them from the neck till dead. There is no statute of limitations on genocide.

And if you’re completely selfish, understand this. They think they can even commit genocide and get away with it. This time it was a bunch of brown people in another country, but having crossed that line, the next line is “what if we mass murder white people in the first world? Could be we get away with it? They let us make them poor and homeless, is killing them that big a step? They’re just useless eaters, anyway.”

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How Leadership Worked In the Early & Middle Roman Republic

When a lot of people talk about Rome, they’re thinking of the Empire and when they write about Rome, they’re writing about the decline and fall. But I’ve always been more interested in creation of new things and how they ran when they were running well. To be sure, knowing how a system eventually failed is important, but not if we don’t understand how it ran well in the first place.

The Republic actually had four different elected assemblies and voting groups (the Senate was not, strictly speaking, elected.) By the middle Republic three were still important.

Tthe Centuriata (organized by military centuries based on wealth, since wealthier citizens could afford better equipment) elected Consuls and Praetors, who had Imperium (the right to lead troops), voted on war and peace and served as a court for serious crimes. It was dominated by the richer classes.

The Tributa, was based on tribes (geographical organizations.) Because all voting took place in Rome, urban tribes had oversized power in it. It voted on legislation proposed by magistrates and the Tributa (the electorate itself) voted to select lower magistrates like Quaestors and Aediles.

Finally there was the Concilium Plebis. This body excluded Patricians and was organized by Tribes. It elected Tribunes of the People. Their powers varied over time, but at certain points they were arguably the most powerful officials in Rome. Tribunes could veto bills from other bodies and the Plebis could pass laws binding on all citizens. Tribunes were meant to be available to any Roman citizen at any time. They couldn’t even close or lock the doors of their homes.

Then, of course, there was the Senate. In the early years Senators were largely appointed by Consuls. A little later by Censors (officials responsible for running a population census and for public morals, elected every five years for a one year term.) In time it became customary for officials elected as Quaestors or Aediles to be enrolled almost automatically. As a practical matter, the Senate was controlled by powerful and rich families. At first those were mostly Patrician, but in time various powerful Plebeian families broke in.

The important leaders in the Republic were magistrates. They held court, they knew law, and in the case of officials with Imperium, they lead armies.

Except for the Tribunes, Censors and Aediles, election to office required following the Cursus Honorum.

The lowest office was Questor. You had to be 30 and the duties were administrative. You might oversee the treasury, serve as an aide to a governor or consul, or otherwise oversee financial or administrative duties.

Aediles were not part of the Cursus, but as time went by you were unlikely to be elected to senior office if you hadn’t served as an Aedile, in part because they were responsible for the games: gladiatorial contests and races. In addition they were responsible for overseeing Rome’s infrastructure: roads, temples, markets, building standards and so on.

Praetors had to be 39 years old minimum and presided over courts (were judges), governed provinces and had the right to command troops.

Finally there was the Consulship. There were two consuls at a time, they had full Imperium, presided over assemblies and acted as judges for the most important cases.

In addition, it was rare for anyone to be elected to any office higher than Qaestor without military service.

Now that we have some idea of the structure, let’s break down why it worked so well for so long.

Experience with How Government Actually Works. Because of the cursus honorum and the de-facto requirement to serve as Aedile and to have military experience, government officials actually knew how the state worked from roads and treasury to law to military affairs. They understood the nuts and bolts of government operations. Compare this to most of our politicians, who don’t know how cities are actually constructed, how the law works, how real world markets actually act and so on.

Since a state that can’t win wars risks stopping being a state, having military experience is important. Moreover it meant that civilian officials understood the military and could expect respect from the military and control it. (Until the late Republic, anyway.)

Officials were pretty much all lawyers. Yes, I know the jokes, but if your job is to create laws, knowing the law seems like a good thing, eh? And since they served as judges as well as usually acting as private lawyers (for which they could officially not accept fees) they knew how laws were actually working in the community.

Praetors serving as Governors, once Rome had provinces, meant that before they became Consul, they had also run a large principality. Again, they had experience in an executive role before being put into the supreme executive role.

Skin In the Game. Rome’s greatest military loss was probably at the battle of Cannae, when Hannibal essentially wiped out an entire Roman Army of 86,000 men. Here’s the interesting thing: one third of Senate was wiped out. Proportional losses among the most important people in Rome were far higher than among the plebs. This is the opposite of how our society now runs, where the powerful don’t serve in the military and if they do, aren’t on the front lines.

Clientage System. Everyone in Rome was part of a system of client/patron relations. Think of it as a chain. You might have a few clients, but have a patron who had many clients, and that patron might have a patron as well. Patrons had a duty to help their clients, and clients had the same duty to their patrons, including the expectation to do battle on their patrons behalf. Clients would go to court with their patrons and cheer for them. When their patrons held office, clients would assist. The patrons would help clients with business affairs, give them gifts and in general take care of them.

This means that everyone in Roman society was connected thru formal chains from almost the very bottom (slaves weren’t clients, but freed slaves automatically became clients of their ex-owner) to the very top of society. Loyalty to clients was important, because clients were a patron’s power base, including their most reliable voters. As for clients, well, powerful patronage is always useful. The powerful in Rome could not be disconnected from everyone else, or they wouldn’t be powerful.

Truly Divided Government. America’s founders tried to imitate the Roman Republic, but one of Rome’s great advantages is that the government was truly divided. The Tribunes and the Plebs truly were opposed to the Senatorial class much of the time. They truly did stop their legislation often. All thru the design of government, there were checks and balances, even at the top. There were two consuls so that neither of them could rule impeded, for example.

When necessary a dictator could be appointed, but constitutional dictatorships were specific to a problem. Usually a war or administrative issue. They were used, in effect, to solve a specific problem and once it was resolved the dictatorship was over.

Limited War Making Power. Only a few officials could lead troops: Praetors, governors (ex-Praetors, usually), Consuls and Dictators. The troops themselves were raised from the general population for specific wars and disbanded once the war was over. There were few professional soldiers, it was a citizen army. Until the late Republic it was unthinkable for Roman armies to turn on Rome and that happened because a professional army with soldiers often under arms for decades was formed. The soldiers became more loyal to their generals (who rewarded them with loot and rapine) than to Rome. But during the Early and Middle Republic the military was an appendage of society, not apart from it.

No Troops in Rome and no Police. There was no enforcer class within Rome itself. In fact to be under arms in Rome was a huge crime. A general and his troops could not be in Rome, whether armed or not, at the same time. Romans had law, but until you were convicted of a crime almost nothing could be done to you. There were effectively no prisons and no cops. In the later Republic this lead to the rise of gangs and rather a lot of violence, but it worked for a long time and kept Romans free.

A requirement for generosity. If you were rich, you were expected to give to the community. Bridges, roads, temples, libraries, monuments, theaters and so on were all built by rich Romans. In fact, election to office during the Early and Middle Republic wasn’t based on promises of “what I’ll do when elected” it was based on “this is what I’ve already done. I deserve office.” Not just giving, but military service, acting as patron, defending citizens as a lawyer and so on.

Leaders Were Held Responsible. Suing Roman officials after they left office was common. If you misused your office, any citizen could take you to court. Penalties were no joke, including banishment and even death. During office many Roman officials were above the law, sacrosanct, but offices were rarely for more than a year, and a year is not a long time.

Summarizing Remarks:

Republican Roman leadership was effective for so long because Roman leaders were forced to actually learn how government and the military worked. They were given significant power for brief periods, usually a year, and were held responsible afterwards. They were part of chains of clientage which reached from the top to the bottom of society and unable to be unaware of the condition of other Romans. They were expected to contribute their wealth to society, to help their clients and to be generous. They were trained in law and familiar with how law operated because almost all served as lawyers and magistrates. And they served in the military and could expect, as at Cannae, to suffer if the military was incompetently led.

Competence, responsibility, generosity and deep ties to the community.

Of course this system had its flaws, even very serious ones, and as all systems do it eventually broke down. But it was also remarkably successful for centuries.

And, in the context of our larger discussion of leaders being different types of people in different societies and different times, Roman leaders were very different from ours. Oh, sure, they were ambitious, leaders almost always are. And they needed to be elected. But in most ways they had little in common with our politicians and CEOs.

The question is “in what ways were they worse or better”, perhaps. If I had to pick one point, it would definitely be the Curusus Honorum. A lot of our leadership issues, both private and public, would be lessened if our leaders had been responsible for the nuts and bolts of running government and society, and actually understood how it worked.

There’s a lot to be said for the government version of “starting in the mailroom.” Do our politicans even understand how the postal system works or how roads are paved?

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Do The Same Sorts Of People Lead All Societies?

There often seems to be an assumption that leaders everywhere are the same: that there is no real difference between leaders in different countries or at different times.

It’s true that leaders generally share some attributes: almost all want to lead and want power. But beyond that, no.

Think a little about how leaders changed over time in America. Can you really say that the same port of people run politics or corporations today as when FDR was in charge or during the post-war period?  The people then were builders who were expanding the social safety net and increasing the middle class, not the upper. The corporate leadership was dominated by engineers, not by MBAs, and many had started at the bottom and risen to the top.

Or think about the leadership of Europe before and after it was conquered by America and the USSR and split up. These were not men who were automatically subservient to outside powers, without national pride and without ambition.

Think about China under Mao and then China today. The people who ran China under Mao, then during the Deng era, and even in Xi era, while they have some continuity, show significant changes. Over the entire history of the CCP party members are selected, not self-selecting and under Xi’s rule, they’re increasingly chosen based on technocratic accomplishments combined with belief in Party principles. To compare them to the shysters who run America, or the bloodless technocrats of Europe is insane.

In the past we’ve chosen leaders primarily based on military skill and heredity. Leaders of hunter gatherer bands (smaller groups, not all hunter-gatherers have had band formations) were often chosen not for aggressiveness but patience and lack of temper.

Leaders are different in different societies, whether different in space or time. They have different characters, different abilities and different goals. The political elites of 1933-1968 or so in America are very different from those who replaced them and that’s a relatively minor change compared to the replacement of feudal nobles by centralized court aristocrats who were then replaced by elected officials and appointed bureaucrats. Let alone the rise of the bourgeois and capitalists. Men of business think very different from aristocrats competing for court favor, let alone nobles who rule their own domains and armies and who consider even the King simply the greatest among equals. Such nobles are vastly different from Roman imperial bureaucrats or the Senatorial families and elected officials who ran the Roman Republic and were forced to come up thru the Cursus Honorum and actually learn how government works.

Of all the things we do as a society, selecting our leaders and deciding what power to give them is possibly the most important.

It’s something we’ve been very bad at for a long time now.

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 10, 2025

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 10, 2025

by Tony Wikrent

 

They’re not capitalists — they’re predatory criminals

UNLOCKED: The Epstein/Trump/Israel Connection Unpacked (w/ Whitney Webb) (YouTube Video)

Briahna Joy Gray interviews Whitney Webb, July 30, 2025 [Bad Faith podcast]

[TW: Webb does an extraordinary job detailing the organized crime backgrounds of Trump and Epstein. Gray was left flabbergasted and visibly shaken by the information. I was also flabbergasted, but because here was someone finally discussing a few key facets of USA and British history that very, very few historians are willing to consider: the World War Two merger between organized crime and intelligence agencies begun during Operation Underworld, when the Office of Naval Intelligence recruited Joseph LanzaMeyer Lansky, and Lucky Luciano​​​​​​​ to watch for and report any possible Axis espionage and saboteur operations in U.S. northeastern ports. Webb next outlines how organized crime “went legit” by taking over Wall Street and the “mergers and acquisitions” racket in the 1970s and 1980s. This last point is something many “influencers” have denied, some with near hysteria.

[Trump’s mentor was mafia lawyer Roy Cohn, and Webb discusses  Cohn’s ties to organized crime that were also shared by Epstein’s mentor, Les Wexner. Webb also mentions the CIA / Iran-Contra involvement in the illegal narcotics trade uncovered by San Jose Mercury News reporter Gary Webb in 1996, and some of the British “corporate raiders,” such as Sir James Michael Goldsmith, who spearheaded the criminal infiltration of Wall Street. (It is not mentioned if and how Gary Webb and Whitney Webb are related.) This may be the most explosive 90 minute show you will ever listen to in your life. It paints a clear picture of the malevolent criminally-inclined elites who have seized political and economic control of USA and the west.]

[At 59:59 BJG asks why? “why are these people who have everything still getting involved in illegal and immoral activities.”

[My answer:  to understand why, you have to ignore the nostrums and ideas of liberalism, and turn to the founding philosophy of civic republicanism, which has been under attack by USA’s would be oligarchs since before the Constitution was signed and ratified. The quick answer to BJG’s question is found in the1667 epic poem Paradise Lost, by English republican John Milton: when Satan explains why he rebelled against God by saying “Better to reign in hell than serve in heaven.”

[Better to reign in hell than serve in heaven. That is the mindset of an oligarch.

[The great weakness of liberalism is its moral ambivalence about the accumulation of wealth. Liberal thinkers such as John Locke defend the accumulation of great wealth under the principles of individual liberty. But as should be abundantly clear by the events of the past few decades, great wealth corrupts a society. While liberalism prefers to ignore this problem, the general socio-economic dynamic of this corruption is a central theme of civic republicanism.

In The Classical Republicans: An Essay in the Recovery of a Pattern of Thought in Seventeenth Century England (Evanston, Northwestern University , 1945), Zera S. Fink, quotes from English republican political theorist Algernon Sidney, who was executed for “treason” against the crown in 1683: “Man” he wrote, “is of an aspiring nature, and apt to put too high a value on himself. They who are raised above their brethren, though but a little, desire to go farther; and if they gain the name of king, they think themselves wronged and degraded, when they are not suffered to do what they please. In these things they never want masters; and the nearer they come to a power that is not easily restrained by law, the more passionately they desire to abolish all that opposes it.” Even when a prince was virtuous and began by desiring nothing more than the power allowed him by law, he was subject to greater temptations to invade the liberty of his subjects than human nature could be expected to withstand. “The strength of his own affections,” Sydney declared, “will ever be against him. Wives, children, and servants will always join with those enemies that arise in his own breast to pervert him; if he has any weak side, any lust unsubdued, they will gain the victory. He has not searched into the nature of man, who thinks that anyone can resist when he is thus on all sides assaulted.”  Monarchy, in short, by the very constitution of human nature, tended always to degenerate into tyranny. It was a defective form of government because in the most important place of all it was lacking in those adequate restraints on the defects of human nature which all the classical republicans saw as an essential of any well-contrived government.

[In The Politics of Inequality: A Political History of the Idea of Economic Inequality in America (New York, NY, Columbia University Press, 2007), Michael J. Thompson writes, “Any political community that suffers from severe imbalances between rich and poor is in danger of losing its democratic character…”  And he explicitly states that “the contemporary tolerance of economic inequality is actually the result of liberalism and liberal thought itself.” Thompson  explains that the political philosophy of civic republicanism recognizes the great danger posed by concentrations of wealth and economic power.

In “The American Revolutionaries, the Political Economy of Aristocracy, and the American Concept of the Distribution of Wealth, 1765-1900,” James L. Huston argued that the founders developed a political economy of aristocracy which identified the avaricious rich as a primary threat to the republic.

The revolutionaries’ concern over the distribution of wealth was prompted by a tenet in the broad and vague political philosophy of republicanism. In contrast to nations in which monarchs and aristocrats dominate the state, republics embodied the ideal of equality among citizens in political affairs, the equality taking the form of citizen participation in the election of officials who formulated the laws. Drawing largely on the work of seventeenth-century republican theorist James Harrington, Americans believed that if property were concentrated in the hands of a few in a republic, those few would use their wealth to control other citizens, seize political power, and warp the republic into an oligarchy. Thus to avoid descent into despotism or oligarchy, republics had to possess an equitable distribution of wealth….

[In The Laws, his last and longest dialogue, Plato wrote that “there should exist among the citizens neither extreme poverty nor, again, excessive wealth, for both are productive of great evil.” We should not be surprised The Laws is the least studied, least known, and least quoted of Plato’s books.

[The Roman historian Plutarch traced the degeneration of the Roman republic into an oligarchic empire to the growing imbalance between rich and poor.  Another Roman, the lawyer, scholar, philosopher, orator, and writer, Cicero, discussed the dangers of economic inequality, but also included a warning of the peculiar psychological condition of the rich:

“When one person or a few stand out from the crowd as richer and more prosperous, then, as a result of their haughty and arrogant behavior, there arises [a government of one or a few], the cowardly and weak giving way and bowing down to the pride of wealth.”

[The work of another historian of ancient Rome, Livy, was the basis of Machiavelli’s description of how the rich of Rome corrupted the Senate. In his Discourses on Livy, Machiavelli described how the Romans tried to restore political balance by creating tribunes to represent the plebians to counterbalance the control of the Senate by the rich, but the unceasing resistance and plotting against the tribunes by the rich of Rome eventually brought about the end of the Roman republic.

[The lesson for Machiavelli was “Let, then, a republic be constituted where there exists, or can be brought into being, notable equality.”

[In The Spirit of Laws, Book 5. Chapter 5, ”In what Manner the Laws establish Equality in a Democracy,” Montesquieu wrote,

“Though real equality be the very soul of a democracy, it is so difficult to establish, that an extreme exactness in this respect would not be always convenient. Sufficient is it to establish a census, which shall reduce or fix the differences to a certain point: it is afterwards the business of particular laws to level, as it were, the inequalities, by the duties laid upon the rich, and by the ease afforded to the poor. It is moderate riches alone that can give or suffer this sort of compensation; for as to men of overgrown estates, everything which does not contribute to advance their power and honor is considered by them as an injury.…”

[Montesquieu thus echoed Cicero by identifying the peculiar psycho-pathology of the rich by noting “to men of overgrown estates, everything which does not contribute to advance their power and honor is considered by them as an injury.” Does this not precisely define Trump and his vindictiveness?

[In the Christian Bible we find Matthew 6:24:

“No one can serve two masters, for either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve God and money.”

[And, more pointedly, James 5:1-6:

Come now, you rich, weep and howl for the miseries that are coming upon you. Your riches have rotted and your garments are moth-eaten. Your gold and silver have corroded, and their corrosion will be evidence against you and will eat your flesh like fire. You have laid up treasure in the last days. Behold, the wages of the laborers who mowed your fields, which you kept back by fraud, are crying out against you, and the cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of hosts. You have lived on the earth in luxury and in self-indulgence.

[And there is the famous warning in that “It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.” This famous biblical quotation is repeated three times in the New Testament, in Matthew 19:24, Mark 10:25, and Luke 18:25.

[The problem of the rich dominating society and destroying it by their aggressive greed and ambition is not confined to the West. The view that the rich posed a danger to good government was also enunciated by the Chinese philosopher Confucius:

“In a country well governed, poverty is something to be ashamed of. In a country badly governed, wealth is something to be ashamed of.”

[According to Confucius, in a well governed society there should be a rough level of economic equality — there should be no poverty. But when a society is no longer well governed, economic inequality arises and there are the impoverished many and the rich few, who abuse and ignore the law and social norms, resulting in misrule. The existence of the wealthy therefore are a marker of a badly governed society.

[And in his Analects, Confucius wrote

If there were an honorable way to get rich, I’d do it, even if it meant being a stooge standing around with a whip. But there isn’t an honorable way, so I just do what I like.

[Oligarchy is the mortal enemy of a republic. “Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely,” is a well-known saying, but it is just as important to understand that wealth corrupts and concentrated wealth corrupts absolutely. What Gray and Webb discuss is the general corruption that has arisen by our society’s toleration of great wealth, and the social damage it has caused, including the escalating problem of elite impunity.

[The Transcendentalists — among whom were Ralph Waldo Emerson, Henry David Thoreau, Louisa May Alcott, and Walt Whitman — were particularly hostile to liberal philosopher John Locke. The Transcendentalist view of Locke was summarized by Orestes Brownson, in The Boston Quarterly Review, in January 1839:

…Locke reduces man to the capacity of receiving sensations, and the faculty of reflecting on what passes within us. According to him we have no ideas which do not enter through the senses, or which are not formed by the operations of the mind on ideas received by means of sensation.

[Locke’s] system of philosophy… is no less fatal to political liberty than to religion and morality… This philosophy necessarily disinherits the mass. It denies to man all inherent power of attaining to truth. In religion, if religion it admits, it refers us not to what we feel and know in ourselves [such a sense of fairness and justice], but was said and done in some remote age, by some special messenger from God; it refers us to some authorized teacher, and commands us to receive our faith on his word, and to adhere to it on peril of damnation. It therefore destroys all free action of the mind, all independent thought, all progress, and all living faith. In politics it must do the same. It cannot found the state on the inherent rights of man; the most it can do, is to organize the state for the preservation of such conditions, privileges, and prescriptions, as it can historically verify….

The doctrine, that truth comes to us from abroad, cannot coexist with true liberty… The democrat is not he who believes in the people’s capacity of being taught, and therefore graciously condescends to be their instructor; but he who believes that Reason, the light which shines out from God’s throne, shines into the heart of every man, and that truth lights her torch in the inner temple of every man’s souk, whether patrician or plebian, a shepherd or a philosopher, a Croesus or a beggar. It is only on the reality of that inner light, and on the fact that it is universal, in all men, and in every man, that you can found a democracy, which shall have a firm basis, and which shall be able to survive that storms of human passions.

[Zohran Mamdani has been repeatedly attacked for saying we shouldn’t have billionaires. But he badly flubs his explanation of this view. The simple fact is that a republic cannot survive the rise of oligarchy. A republic must have very high taxes on wealth and income, to disrupt the concentration of wealth and prevent the inherent despotism of the rich from ever emerging in the first place.

[Our problem now is that a plutocratic oligarchy has already parasitically fastened itself on our society and polity, and we need to dislodge it, and restore the governing principles of civic republicanism.]

Howie Klein, August 06, 2025 [downwithtyranny.com]
Thomas Neuburger, August 03, 2025 [downwithtyranny.com]

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