The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Saudi Arabia’s Laughably Stupid Plan for the End of Oil

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I’ve been predicting Saudi Arabia’s crackup for some time. Their society is completely dependent on oil revenues, and their rulers have no idea how to diversify off in time.

Couldn’t happen to a bigger bunch of jerks, though as usual, many innocents and powerless people will get dead, raped, and tortured as Saudi Arabia falls.

This piece by Jeff Spross, hasn’t changed my mind. It’s about how the Sauds are selling assets to get US dollars so they can pay for the changeover.

The expert Spross talks to has ideas on what the Sauds could use that money on:

Kaboub proposes the country use advanced aquaponics to build up its self-sufficiency in food — aquaponics can be done indoors for ten percent of the water used by traditional agriculture — and switch over to renewable energy. “It’s a prime location for wind and solar and geothermal,” he noted. Kaboub’s also a fan of a universal job guarantee, which he thinks can serve as a staging policy to lower unemployment and build up other domestic industries.

What does the royal family, lead by the Crown Prince bin Salman (of the Yemeni war and the chopping a journalist to pieces in the Istanbul embassy) think is a good plan?

For the moment, though, the Saudi government has a different vision. Their plan focuses somewhat on renewables and diversifying manufacturing, but the big initiative is on moving the economy more into high-end luxury tourism.

I am entirely sincere when I say that I never imagined they would be this stupid.

The Saud family’s days ruling Saudi Arabia are numbered. Praise God, because only he could have made them quite this imbecilic.

Lifted from the comments, by StewartM

Tourism?

As someone who knows someone who worked a stint in Saudi Arabia, this is gobsmacking. Let’s just name a few:

1) Want to go on a desert excursion? Oops, be careful, you may meet some religiously conservative armed Bedouins.

2) Hey, how about scuba diving along the coast? Well, don’t have an accident or the bends, because hospital services are limited to deal with it.

3) Public displays of affection are a no-no (we’re talking heterosexual husband and wife; don’t even thing same-gender). Mixing of the genders if they’re unrelated is a no-no too. The moral code is enforced by “volunteer” police zealots who have the power to detain you if they think you are breaking Islamic law.

Homosexuality and other violations of the Saudi Islamic moral code apply even in compounds exclusively for foreigners and are enforced in surprise raids.

4) Alcohol and pornography are banned. Mind you, the Saudis may deem your favorite character on the video game on your phone or laptop “pornographic” and seize your device, so their definition of “pornography” probably doesn’t match yours.

5) See something interesting? Want to take a photo? Don’t. You could be arrested for it, as a spy.

6) Don’t talk about politics, especially if it casts even the slightest detraction against the Saudi government or royal family.

7) Don’t wear any non-Islam religious emblems. Public observances of any other religious in a crime.

8) And let’s not talk about the difficulty in obtaining both an entry visa, and an exit visa, to boot. (I’d presume they’d fix that).

In short, Saudi Arabia would be a land where rich tourists would check into their $5,000-a-night hotel in a gated Western compound, and just stay there, not daring to go out. Oh, even then there might be a raid if immoral conduct is suspected.

Unless Crown Prince bin Salman’s plan involves remaking Saudi Arabia into a secular state, from stem to stern, Saudi Arabia will be a country where almost nobody wants to go visit. This is by design:

“My Kingdom will survive only insofar as it remains a country difficult to access, where the foreigner will have no other aim, with his task fulfilled, but to get out.” — King Abdul Aziz bin Saud, c. 1930


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13 Comments

  1. StewartM

    Tourism?

    As someone who knows someone who worked a stint in Saudi Arabia, this is gobsmacking. Let’s just name a few:

    1) Want to go on a desert excursion? Oops, be careful, you may meet some religiously conservative armed Bedouins.

    2) Hey, how about scuba diving along the coast? Well, don’t have an accident or the bends, because hospital services are limited to deal with it.

    3) Public displays of affection are a no-no (we’re talking heterosexual husband and wife; don’t even thing same-gender). Mixing of the genders if they’re unrelated is a no-no too. The moral code is enforced by “volunteer” police zealots who have the power to detain you if they think you are breaking Islamic law.

    Homosexuality and other violations of the Saudi Islamic moral code apply even in compounds exclusively for foreigners, and are enforced in surprise raids.

    4) Alcohol and pornography are banned. Mind you, the Saudis may deem your favorite character on the video game on your phone or laptop “pornographic” and seize your device, so their definition of “pornography” probably doesn’t match yours.

    5) See something interesting? Want to take a photo? Don’t. You could be arrested for it, as a spy.

    6) Don’t talk about politics, especially if it casts even the slightest detraction against the Saudi government or royal family.

    7) Don’t wear any non-Islam religious emblems. Public observances of any other religious in a crime.

    8) And let’s not talk about the difficulty in obtaining both an entry visa, and an exit visa, to boot. (I’d presume they’d fix that).

    In short, Saudi Arabia would be a land where rich tourists would check into their $5,000-a-night hotel in a gated Western compound, and just stay there, not daring to go out. Oh, even then there might be a raid if immoral conduct is suspected.

    Unless Crown Pirince bin Salman has this plan or remaking Saudi Arabia into a secular state, from stem to stern, Saudi Arabia will be a country where almost nobody wants to go visit. This is by design:

    “My Kingdom will survive only insofar as it remains a country difficult to access, where the foreigner will have no other aim, with his task fulfilled, but to get out.” — King Abdul Aziz bin Saud, c. 1930

  2. A

    While I share your sentiments I still think the House of Saud will be governing the Arabian for a long time yet. I would be the US, Canada and Great Britain break into smaller countries before Saudi Arabia does.

    If I had a dollar……..

  3. heinzy

    Why the hell would anyone want to go to Saudi Barbaria for tourism? They\’d have to build a city like Vegas, but even more dependent on resources like water. And I can see the boycotts lined up against them, I certainly would boycott them and shun people who would dare go to SA for tourism. You\’re right Ian, they\’re done. Good riddance.

  4. bruce wilder

    @ A

    at the risk of pointing out the obvious, non-African Arabia is already several countries: the numerous Persian Gulf statelets, Jordan and large parts of Iraq and Syria and Palestine are all historically Arabia. Arguably, so are Yemen and Oman. As one thread of connection, the Hashemites, the predecessors of the Sauds in Mecca, have been the royal family of Syria (1918-1920), Hejaz (1916–1925), Iraq (1921–1958) and Jordan (1921-date). the political geography of the area has been fractured since before the Ottomans claimed the caliphate. the Saudi ambition to use the central region of Najd to dominate the east and west of the peninsula has not been an especially successful program historically, subject to challenge from many powerful opponents.

  5. DMC

    And they could go into solar, for power and desalination of sea water so easily, it fairly boggles the mind. Clean, fresh water is going to be the commodity the Saudis wish they were producing. But it’s going to take a palace coup at the very least, to change the direction MbZ has the country headed in. With Machiavelli in mind, he’s injured a substantial percentage of the royal family but he’s only killed a few, so how long before they decide he’s more trouble than he’s worth? And the old man as well…turn things over to some prince of another line, start making some rational decisions for a change. Probably they’re hosed any which way but the current leadership is just putting rockets on the sled to hell.

  6. Joe

    Im guessing he wants to copy dubai then

  7. different clue

    Perhaps the “tourism” plan is merely about creating a diversion while all the Saudi family members above a certain money-wealth cuttoff-level quietly move a lot of money out of KSA to pre-planned shelter zones in other countries. At some point they may quietly sneak out of the country, leaving the commoners and the Wahhabi religious kakistocracy behind to fight with al Qaeda and ISIS over the future.

    Hopefully Iraq and Iran would be able to liberate the Eastern Province in order to keep al Qaeda and/or ISIS from getting it.

    Too bad. So sad. And to think, Saudi Arabia could have become the “Saudi Arabia” of renewable electricity.

  8. Chuck Mire

    Welcome to the living Old Testament…

  9. Hugh

    Only about 1% of Saudi Arabia is arable land. In 1950, it had a population of 3.1 million. In 2019, it has a population of 33.9 million. It’s a case of do the math.

  10. Gabriel

    To follow up on that great comment by StewartM, below John Dolan (aka Gary Brecher) piece in the NSFWCorps when TechCrunch put out a story about how KSA could be the next Silicon Valley. The Dumbest Thing I’ve Ever Read. Saudi Arabia As The Next Silicon Valley”

    How do you, you hot, heavily-recruited tech whiz you, begin your day? Maybe you and your significant other have a cozy little habit of going out for coffee before work?

    Well, not in Saudi. This is impossible for all kinds of reasons. First: How you gonna get that significant other into your room? Or your equally significant self into his or her room? There is no such thing as privacy in Saudi. Every police officer on the street has the right to demand a marriage certificate from any male/female couple he sees. If you and your object of affection don’t have one, you cannot be in the same room together.

    They’re not kidding about this. That’s what I’d really like to say to all the naïve Westerners who think the Saudis can’t really be serious about such things: They are… If your partner happens to be of the same sex, you might get away with it—that paradox social historians have noted about extremely repressive societies whereby gay liaisons are less carefully surveilled than heterosexual ones. But if your homosexual relationship is discovered, you can count on instant deportation if you’re lucky, and worse if the partner is a Muslim.

    Now, let’s say you and partner have a document certifying the legality of your doin’s. Let’s go get that latte! Well no, not if one or both of you are female. Women are not supposed to be moving about in public, and when they do they are usually stopped by the police, who want to know basically who owns them and why he’s letting them walk around loose. Most small cafes and restaurants don’t admit women at all. Period. Women are admitted only if there’s a so-called “Family Section.” What that means is that one side of the restaurant is partitioned off with closed booths. Women are allowed to zip into one of those partitioned booths, and the man of the party then pulls the curtain open to order, closing it quickly lest someone see the women inside. He orders, then takes the food from the server so no one else sees the women. (And the food, when you get it, is very bad. The big restaurant in Najran was an imitation US fast-food chain called Kudu, inspired by Jack in the Box.)

    Of course any female member of your party can only leave the house if she’s fully covered. When we arrived, we thought that meant the “Western female correspondent in Kabul” option. You know, the tasteful headscarf and long dress. Noooope. Katherine, already dressed in that style, was informed it wouldn’t do and handed the full kit: hijab (black headscarf), niqab (black face-veil), abaya (black dress long enough to sweep the dust). That’s compulsory. All day, every day. Great for a hot desert climate, as you can imagine.

    And please—that shit about how this costume is “liberating”? Bull. Shit. As a Pashtun colleague complained, “They say the abaya is to free women to move about but a woman cannot move about!” He knew about that. He’d sent his wife and kids home to South Africa on vacation, only to get a call from Jeddah Airport. His wife, crying, told him the Saudi guards wouldn’t let her out of the country because she didn’t have a male guardian present. He actually had to fly from Najran to Jeddah to tell Saudi Immigration, “Yes, this is my wife, these are my kids, I give them my permission to leave.”

  11. Stirling S Newberry

    Don’t worry, something more stupid is coming.

  12. different clue

    @Gabriel,

    I gather John Dolan at some point took over the Gary Brecher name and column. But I have always had a feeling that someone else began the Gary Brecher feature, perhaps even a “real” Gary Brecher himself.

    I would have to spend many hours reading all the War Nerd columns from Column Number One going forward to see if my memory-feel of a “change at some point” would still stand. I can say that what I regard as the previous ” Gary Brecher” never mentioned “faculty meetings” in a column.
    But shortly after the handoff, the new “Gary Brecher” ( Garyjohn Dolanbrecher) put a referrence to “faculty meetings” as something he had used to have to go to into a column. That was clearly not the old “Gary Brecher” I had used to read.

  13. sglover

    I thought Saudi “investment” plans, the ones that really lead to action, have always mostly concerned parking dollars in London or Luxemborg or almost anywhere other than Saudi Arabia.

    However, “high end luxury tourism” sure does sound like a nice lure, should the Saudi monarchy ever need to provide some (phantom) enticements to induce certain foreign saps to run errands for them. Might there be a head of state who can be bought by the promise of a casino lease? Hmmm, let’s see……

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