Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Yes, If You’re American There Will Be Serious Shortages Starting In About A Month

Effective tariffs are over 100% on most goods coming in from China. Everything from medicine to toys to machine and electrical parts will start running out soon. If your air conditioner or fridge breaks, the parts necessary to it may not be available. America doesn’t make these parts, and it’s endless. For example, magnets used in appliances.

So, yes, if stock up if you can.

No way of knowing how long this will go on for, and it’s worth noting that some factories in China have just shut down, period. You’d think they’d move production to other countries and some are trying, but since Trump has declared his retard trade war with entire world, and since he’s completely fickle (he just put a 100% tariff on films, claiming national security, which isn’t even allowed for films, but who knows) decision makers are reluctant to re-shore to other countries. Trump might have another one of his distempered starts and tariff them.

Anyway, even after the trade war ends, which I suspect it will, prices will be higher and supply for some products will be thin, but unless you’re an insider in a particular industry it’s hard to say which ones. Setting up production in the US takes time, sometimes years, and, again, because Trump is so fickle, hardly anyone is willing to invest. Ironically if Trump believably said “it’s going to be 100% on everyone forever”, that would in some ways be better than the current situation, since at least people could make decisions and invest.

Note also that even if the trade war ended tomorrow, the pipeline has been disrupted and there’s at least a two month gap to overcome.

So, rocky road ahead if you’re American. Stock up, strap in, and pray.

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

How Soon Empty Shelves

I just listened to Chuck Todd say the following three things regarding economics, “eveything is unstable; everything is uncertain and we’re probably about a month a way from empty shelves.”

Ian and others far brighter than me, what say you?

I’m speechless.

Environmental Collapse, Not Just Climate Change

When I talk about the environment I usually say “Climate change & Environmental Degradation.” It’s important to understand that while these two reinforce each other, they aren’t the same thing.

A UK-wide decline in bug splats recorded on car number plates indicates an “alarming” fall in the number of flying insects, UK scientists said in a survey published yesterday.

The 2024 Bugs Matter report revealed the numbers of flying insects found stuck to vehicle number plates had dropped by nearly 63 per cent since 2021.

This study from Germany in 2017 found a:

More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas

And there were decreases in the 1900s as well. Bug biodiversity and biomass is WAY down. Here’s a lovely chart from 2019.

We’re seeing this sort of crash, in both biodiversity and biomass for all sorts of species, not just bugs. Problem is that our food production and a pile of environmental processes related to water and atmosphere renewal are dependent on animals and plants. There’s massive loss of plankton, mammals, reptiles, bacteria in our soil and so on.

This stuff isn’t independent of climate change, but even without any climate change there’d still be plenty of it. The loss of wild areas, plus tons of pollution and the side effects of extraction and energy generation are largely to blame.

Collapse of this “web of life” or “food web” is a huge danger to us, as well as being a monstrous crime against other forms of life.

So don’t think “climate change is it”. It isn’t, and it may not even be as important as loss of biodiversity.

 

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 4, 2025

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 4, 2025

by Tony Wikrent

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

 

‘We’re Not Stopping’: Trump Border Czar Vows to Ignore Judges

[The Daily Beast, via MSN 03-18-2025]

 

Judges Who Rule Against Trump Become Target of New MAGA War

Malcolm Ferguson, May 2, 2025 [The New Republic]

At least 11 federal judges and their families have been threatened and harassed since they ruled against President Trump on issues of deportations, federal funding, and his war on “wokeness.”

The judges, under anonymity, told Reuters that they had received multiple intimidating calls and emails to their homes and offices. Some have been subject to the disturbing “pizza box” method, in which antagonists will anonymously send a pizza to the home of a judge or their relatives just to show that they know where they live.

This is only compounded by the countless attacks and doxxing attempts that people like Laura Loomer and Elon Musk have made on X. When U.S. District Judge James Boasberg ruled against Trump’s illegal deportation of 137 men under the Alien Enemies Act in March, Loomer and Musk shared photos of his daughter, while their army of keyboard warriors called for the execution or arrest of Boasberg and the rest of his family. Loomer did the same to Judge John McConnell after he blocked Trump from freezing education grants, posting a picture of his daughter who had worked for the Education Department. Loomer’s post conveniently omitted that McConnell’s daughter left the department before Trump was even inaugurated….

 

You Already Knew He’s The WORST President Ever— Did You Also Know He’s The Most Blatantly Corrupt?

Howie Klein, April 26, 2025 [downwithtyranny.com]

…On Thursday, Drew Harwell and Jeremy Merrill reported that shady characters have poured tens of millions of dollars into Trump’s meme coin since he advertised on Wednesday that top purchasers could join him for an “intimate private dinner” next month. “The holders of 27 crypto wallets have each acquired more than 100,000 $TRUMP coins, stakes worth about a million dollars each, since noon on Wednesday, when the team announced that the 220 top coin holders would be rewarded with a ‘night to remember’ on May 22 at the president’s Trump National Golf Club outside Washington. Crypto wallets are generally anonymous, making it challenging to identify who the purchasers were.”

They also advertised something so blatantly illegal that they partially removed it, no doubt at the insistence of White House lawyers: an offer of a tour of the White House for the 25 top $TRUMP coins purchasers. Now they’re just offering a tour but with no indication of what. This idea of offering direct presidential access to those who pay into a project benefiting the Trump personal bottom line would be enough to get him impeached if House Republicans weren’t so wedded to enabling his criminality. Not one House Republican has spoken out about this.
Harwell and Merrill wrote that “the biggest buyer acquired 2 million coins worth about $24 million.” That’s a substantial bribe, especially coming from a criminal in China who desperately needs a pardon from Trump. “Taken together, the 27 wallets acquired more than 8 million $TRUMP coins, worth about $100 million as of Thursday afternoon…

Howie Klein, May 2, 2025 [downwithtyranny.com]

Robert Weissman, co-president of Public Citizen, was even stronger on the same particular crime: “Never before in American history have foreign governments, as well as people and corporations under investigation, so overtly and directly funneled vast sums to the president of the United States and his family. This is far more than is captured by the term ‘conflict of interest.’ It is foreign policy for sale and justice for sale. And, as one of the executives in the deal said, ‘it is only the beginning.’ With a president who has no regard for the basic norms of propriety, ethics, the law or the U.S. Constitution, the question is: Will the U.S. Congress permit this mockery of the American people? Or will it insist on the most minimal baseline standards, so that foreign governments cannot send money directly to the president and his family?”

How Trump Accidentally Sabotaged His Own Case Against Abrego Garcia

Greg Sargent, May 3, 2025 [The New Republic]

He has now said it right out in the open—not once but twice. In two major interviews, President Donald Trump openly declared that he has the power to bring the wrongfully deported Kilmar Abrego Garcia back to the United States. And on both occasions, Trump said straight out that he is not doing so because administration lawyers have told him he doesn’t have to—or that he shouldn’t.

This has been widely seen as an admission that Trump is defying the Supreme Court, which has directed the administration to “facilitate” Abrego Garcia’s return. Yes, it is that. But these two moments are also their own story. They offer a unique glimpse into the deep rot of bad faith infesting Trump and Stephen Miller’s broader project to expand the president’s removal powers into something extraordinarily vast and entirely unaccountable….

 

Public Records Wreckers: The consequences of gutting FOIA offices are both obvious and unknowable.

Will Royce, Andrea Beaty, May 1, 2025 [The American Prospect]

Ten months ago, Roman Jankowski sent dozens of Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), among other agencies. He was one-third of a three-man fishing expedition spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation and the Daily Caller to dig up dirt on civil servants, particularly if they were the type to use phrases like “climate equity” or “voting.” ….

Today, Jankowski oversees FOIA compliance for DHS as its chief FOIA officer. His agency receives more public records requests than any other by a wide margin. And instead of gumming up FOIA administration from the outside, Jankowski now works for an administration that is attacking FOIA by firing many of the federal employees who respond to those requests, precisely what his records requests sought to facilitate….

While the administration staunchly refuses to be “maximally transparent,” groups like Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) are trying to get answers. CREW is currently suing the Trump administration for refusing to comply with its FOIA requests on DOGE’s activities. To prop up their argument that DOGE and Musk aren’t subject to the Freedom of Information Act, the administration has claimed that Musk doesn’t work for DOGE—despite Trump’s personal posts and a basic comprehension of daily news contradicting that idea—and that the roughly 100 operatives under Musk’s direction are not acting independently from the office of the president.

 

The Democracy Index

Joyce Vance, Joshua Kolb, Lily Conway, and Bri Murphy, May 02, 2025

This week, the Trump DOJ was dealt two significant blows by two Republican-appointed district court judges. On Thursday in Texas, Trump-appointee Fernando Rodriguez, Jr., ruled that the Trump Administration’s invocation of the Alien Enemies Act—a 1798 law that allows the government to detain and deport noncitizens from the country during wartime—was improper and unlawful. Rodriguez, Jr., ruled that Trump’s proclamation “exceeds the scope of the statute and is contrary to the plain, ordinary meaning of the statute’s terms.”

Earlier in the week, Judge Royce Lamberth of the District of Columbia, who was appointed to the bench by Ronald Reagan, lambasted the Trump Administration, preventing Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty from being decimated and ruling that “It is hard to fathom a more straightforward display of arbitrary and capricious actions than the Defendants’ actions here.” Lamberth then took an extraordinary step back from the particulars of the case to strongly defend the independence of the judiciary in our constitutional system, writing: “By enjoining the defendants’ efforts to dismantle the plaintiff networks, actions which I perceive to be contrary to the law, I am humbly fulfilling my small part in this very constitutional paradigm—a framework that has propelled the U.S. to heights of greatness, liberty and prosperity unparalleled in the history of the world for nearly 250 years. If our nation is to thrive for another 250 years, each co-equal branch of government must be willing to courageously exert the authority entrusted to it by our Founders.”

Beyond the judiciary, institutions that bent the knee to Trump faced setbacks while those that held resolutely against intimidation were rewarded. Notably, Microsoft, one of the largest companies in the world, dropped the law firm Simpson Thacher—among the shops that caved and made a deal with the Trump White House—and signed up Jenner Block, one of the three law firms that challenged Trump’s Executive Order in court. The cowardly firms that acquiesced cited, as their prime justification, their obligation to their clients to maintain good relations with the government. That was always a false choice, but it was also foolhardy in the long run—after all, what client wants a lawyer who will be intimidated by its bad-faith adversary?

That is indeed courageous, a fact that can be quantified. In the law firms’ litigation against the Trump Administration, hundreds of firms banded together to sign an amicus brief defending their colleagues and decrying the president’s Executive Order. The first amicus brief a couple weeks ago, supporting Perkins Coie’s lawsuit, secured about five hundred firms; this week, another amicus brief in the Jenner Block suit garnered around eight hundred signatories.

 

Men DOGEbags at Work

‘There’s Never Been a More Blatant Corporate Incursion Into the Public Sector Than DOGE’ 

[FAIR, via Naked Capitalism 05-02-2025]

Jeff Hauser is the executive director of the Revolving Door Project:

“We, in general, track corporate influence in politics, with a particular focus on the executive branch. And there has never been a more blatant corporate incursion into the public sector than DOGE, which reflects the privatization of our domestic policy, and increasingly our foreign policy as well, by people who are not even bothering to give up any of their private sector ties, and actually join the government for a few years—which we’re not fans of; we believe in career civil servants. But these people aren’t even doing that much. They’re just continuing to run, say, Tesla and SpaceX while running large swaths of the government, and never having been put before the Senate for nomination.”

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

UR-Values Of The Right, Center and Left

The left looks at people who are hurting and immediately asks “how can we help them?”

The center looks at hurting people and says “can insiders profit from this?”

The right looks at people who are hurting and says “how can we hurt them more?”

There’s some overlaps between the right and center on this, but the right’s ur-Value is cruelty to the weak and outsiders. If they can make money hurting people, that’s great. The center just wants money. Lots of it. That’s their ur-value. If making money helps or hurts someone, OK.

The left’s ur-value is kindness. They see someone hurting, and they want to help.

The center has a modicum of shame. Being around people who are hurting, like homeless people, bothers their conscience a little bit, so they want them removed from their sight.

The right wants suffering people removed because they see them as losers who deserve what’s happening to them, and weak people deserve to suffer. Hell, make them suffer more till they get their act together.

This is the political spectrum in the West right now. There was a time when the center wanted to help people, from about FDR 76 or so, but those centrists no longer have any significant power. But the center pretends they want to help, and because they at least pretend, they feel entitled to support and votes from the left, even though most of their policies hurt people.

In some ways, the right, with their lack of pretense, is more admirable. They’re monsters and they don’t pretend otherwise, except when it comes to unborn children, whom they immediately abandon once born.

Given that the left has no significant power in most Western states, everything has gotten worse for everyone but the rich and the enforcer class for about three generations now. Until centrists either become humane again, probably out of self-interest, or the left takes power, the downward trend will continue.

 

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

 

Britain Is Toast, Period

Long term readers will know that I’ve been negative on Britain for a long time. Corbyn was their last chance to turn things around, but Corbyn lacked the necessary ruthlessness to win, and was destroyed by absolutely bullshit allegations of anti-semitism. Starmer became Labour leader after him, on promises of left wing policies which even a child should have disbelieved, and ruthlessly purged Labour of all left wingers.

Conservatives ran stupid governments with horrid policies which led to inflation and continued de-industrialization, and Starmer backed into power.  His policies are worse than the Conservatives, with draconian cuts to social welfare policies like child support, heat for old people, and wheelchairs for cripples. The last British steel plant is shutting down, and the next party to rule Britain (as I also predicted) seems likely to be Reform:

It showed that if a General Election were held tomorrow, 25% of UK voters would choose Reform, 24% chose Labour and 21% would vote for the Tories.

The party topped a Find Out Now Westminster poll last week, with Farage’s party on 26% of the vote – outstripping the Tories (on 23%) and pushing Labour into third place (on 22%).

While this is even or only a slight lead, Labour’s policies, which include selling a big chunk of the UK to Blackrock, will continue to be extremely damaging and unpopular, so I expect Reform to continue its rise.

Reform’s policies, should it come into government, will be absolutely disastrous, Trump/DOGE style shoot yourself in the foot, then realized there’s still plenty left to blow away.

Meanwhile Wales. Wales, which has been under English rule for over 700 years now pols in the 30s for support for independence. Scottish support is in the high 40s, sometimes spiking over 50, with support for going concentrated among the youngest Scots. Northern Ireland is around 40% for joining Ireland.

Again, as things become worse, I expect these numbers to increase. In twenty years, I don’t expect there to be a United Kingdom (the union of Scotland and England.)

There’s no easy recovery from what has happened to the UK as there’s no prospect of a government which will seriously try to re-industrialize. As China continues its rise, and as the US dollar loses its hegemonic status, the City of London financial center will continue to weaken and, well, the UK will have less and less the world wants, which is bad since the UK can’t even feed itself, and has limited natural resources, especially if Scotland leaves.

It’s over. The English had a good run from 1500 to 2000 or so, but all nations face periods of decline and poverty. Britain’s will soon be upon them, and given how authoritarian England is becoming, it won’t even have a lot of freedom to offer. If you’re British, and can, get out. Now.

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

Canada’s Future & The New Carney Government

Mark Carney

Carney has won a minority government. He will have to govern with the support of the NDP. The NDP was slaughtered in this election, and there were a few ridings where people strategically voting for the Liberals actually led to the Conservatives winning. Iit’s worth pointing out that the Conservatives increased their seat count, which is why Poilievre is sticking around as leader, despite losing the election and his own seat. (A loyal MP will stand down and let him run in a by-election in a safe riding.)

The NDP lost their official party status in this election and their vote percentage was cut in about half by strategic voting. They need to bargain hard with Carney in exchange for support and be willing to walk away. The most important thing, for them and Canada, is to change the voting system. Proportional would be ideal, but it’s unlikely the Liberals would go for it. They would probably go for ranked ballots, assuming, probably correctly, that they’ll be the most common second choice.

But it would also benefit the NDP and make it less likely for radical conservatives of the current variety to get into power.

If I were the NDP, I’d go to the wall for this. There’s likely to be more polarized elections in the future, because the Conservatives remain a Trumpist style party and a lot of natural NDP voters will keep going Liberal to try and block them. If they want to get back up to near 20% of the vote, this is necessary.

Now as to Canada’s future: it’s going to depend on whether Carney can actually deliver. If he can make Canadians better off and win another election, Poilievre is toast and Trump style conservatism will be discredited in Canada. If he doesn’t deliver: if effective wages don’t rise and if rent and housing prices don’t go down, then Poilievre or his successor’s Conservative party WILL win the next election, just based on disgruntled voters.

Carney’s talked a fair bit of sense: doubling building housing, pivoting to new trade partners and creating vertically integrated industries within Canada. If he can pull it off, he’ll go down as one of Canada’s greatest Prime Ministers. But, at the end of the day, Carney is a neoliberal, and his impulse to always cut taxes on the rich and so on is going to hold him back.

He also needs a full term to pull it off. A lot of pain is coming down the pike and the next couple years will be ugly.

And that means he needs to keep the NDP happy. If they stop supporting him before he turns things around (assuming he can) he’s toast, and the Conservatives are in. So the NDP may as well force him to do some other things: pharmacare and universal dental, probably.

It’s going to be an interesting few years for everyone. Carney was right when he said:

America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country. But these are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, that will never ever happen...

Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over. The system of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that well not perfect has helped deliver prosperity for a country for decades, is over. 

But it’s also our new reality.

We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons. We have to look out for ourselves and above all we have to take care of each other.

The old system is over. Carney’s problem is that he doesn’t see that for a ton of Canadians the old system hasn’t been delivering for a long time.

Every country in the world will have to adapt to the new economic landscape. Some will succeed, others like Britain, will fail. It remains to be seen if Canada is one which adapts well. What is certain is that if Poilievre gets in, he will usher in a new era even worse than the old neoliberal one. He will be prostrate before the US, will slash the civil service, healthcare and so on and will turbocharge the oligarchy.

So Carney’s it. He wouldn’t have been my first choice, but if he doesn’t pull it off, no one will.

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

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