Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

The Mainstreaming of Nick Fuentes

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On September 30, 2025

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In the aftermath of Charlie Kirk’s death, there is a frenzied competition to replace him as the face of the young American right.

Nick Fuentes, who largely built his following by trolling Charlie Kirk for his support of immigration and Israel, seems to be the biggest immediate beneficiary.

The Bulwark has a good backgrounder on the relationship between Kirk and Fuentes before September 10, 2025. It was called “How the Groypers Won: In the clash between Charlie Kirk and Nick Fuentes, the Pepe people prevailed” and was published in June:

“I’ve noticed people like Charlie Kirk and Matt Walsh are now calling for an immigration moratorium,” Fuentes said, in comments first noted by Media Matters. “That means they want to shut down all immigration. And suffice to say, the groypers have won. It’s just not even a question at this point.”

Fuentes has a point. After nearly a decade of being treated as the skunk at the Grand Old Party (so much so that even Trump had to claim not to know him after the two had dinner with Kanye), some of the Republicans’ leading thinkers have adopted his ideas.

No one better symbolizes the right’s surrender to Fuentes than Kirk.

The day before Kirk’s murder, Fuentes got the classic New York Times soft-focus feature article.

The Times featured some red-hot quotes from Fuentes bashing Trump:

“When I was a teenager, I thought he was a Caesar-like figure who was going to save Western civilization,” Mr. Fuentes, 27, said in an interview. “Now I view him as incompetent, corrupt and compromised.”

Specifically, he has criticized the president for showing solidarity with Israel over the war in Gaza, for refusing to release the Epstein files and for considering extending student visas to Chinese nationals. On Labor Day, Mr. Fuentes posted on social media, “Trump 2.0 has been a disappointment in literally every way but nobody wants to admit it.”

In the immediate aftermath of Kirk’s death, as I posted at Naked Capitalism, Fuentes reacted sharply to widespread allegations that Kirk’s accused killer, Tyler Robinson, was one of Fuentes’ groypers:

He seems to have bounced back, maybe this piece by Graeme Wood of The Atlantic calling the accusations of Kirk’s accused killer being a groyper “outlandish” turned things around.

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And things are on the up for Fuentes, as Wired reports:

In the aftermath of Kirk’s death, Fuentes struck a more conciliatory tone, urging followers not to pick up arms, but also repeated that he believes Kirk was “complicit in the Israeli capture of the right wing for a very long time.”
Rather than damaging Fuentes’ popularity, Kirk’s death has accelerated it. His X following has grown by almost 175,000 since Kirk’s death, and he has seen his following on Rumble increase by more than 100,000.

His livestream commemorating the death of Kirk was among his most watched by far, with over 2.5 million views. His livestream the following Monday discussing who was responsible for Kirk’s death also saw a higher-than-normal viewership. In the space of less than an hour, Fuentes earned over $5,500 from the top 50 Super Chat donations made by supporters…

Despite being suspended from most major social media platforms, last year Fuentes was reinstated on X by Musk, who wrote that he could stay on the platform “provided he does not violate the law, and let him be crushed by the comments and Community Notes.”

Rather than being crushed, Fuentes has seen his following skyrocket from 168,000 at the time his account was restored in May 2024, to almost 925,000 today.
…

Despite his growing influence within the GOP and the Trump administration, as well as his rapidly rising support among young white men in America, Fuentes has repeatedly said that in order for his movement to make an impact, it needs to operate in the shadows.

“No rallies, no protests, we don’t need to show everybody how many of us there are because the second that we do, they will identify, isolate, and destroy us,” Fuentes said on a recent livestream. “We want them to have no clue how many Groypers there are, where they are, who they are. We want them to be completely in the dark.”

…

Fuentes’ disdain for many of his supporters appears to have no impact on his popularity, but the 27-year-old is clear that what he refers to as the “grug-level” supporters are not what is needed in order for his movement to take control. Instead, Fuentes speaks about attracting “elite human capital,” supporters who will then become part of an “officer class” of “super intelligent, entrepreneurial” people.

“Once we get 1,000, 5,000 of those guys, those are going to be the party officials, party apparatics as an analogy,” Fuentes said. “I’m kind of interested in inspiring those people, indoctrinating those people. They watch a show, they get the ideas, they get the inspiration, they kind of take a project into their own hands.”
Great.

Fuentes certainly bears watching.

Other things I’m watching/reading:

2025 Fundraiser

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On September 29, 2025

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This blog runs on reader subscriptions and donations. Reading it is free, and always will be, but it does take money to run the site and keep myself fed and sheltered. Every year (except one time when I was sick and forgot) I do an annual fundraiser, and the funds raised are what make the blog viable.

Over the last few years I’ve been writing mostly about the hegemonic changeover from America to China. Long predicted, this is still a rare event, happening only every century or so, and it’s fascinating to be living thru it. I still plan on covering it, but I think regular readers get the point.

What I plan on writing more about is what the future looks like, and what it takes to run a “good” society. We don’t have a lot of those right now, and putting down the markers for what is required to create one is important. Equally, we need to understand how good societies fail. As an example FDR created a much better America for Americans, but he left open some “windows of wealth” like taxing capital gains at much less than income. It took a while for the rich to turn into oligarchs by driving a tank thru this opening, but they managed it.

China before Xi was in vast danger of turning into an oligarchy. Corruption was rampant, and China was minting billionaires, and they were using their wealth to buy influence and power. Xi shut that down, hard. China avoided a trap which would have turned its rise, at best, into a Chinese Gilded Age and might well have derailed it entirely.

Many such traps come along, and sometimes countries recover before the harm is insoluble.

Sometimes they don’t.

So I’ll be writing more about such issues, about the future effects of climate change on governance and general life and so on.

We have two new writers, Sean Paul Kelley and Nat Wilson Turner. They cover issues I only touch on, Sean Paul is a trained historian, and former institutional broker at Morgan Stanley who has visited more countries than not–65 and counting, and Nate is good at the “bloggy” stuff, as well as (though he hasn’t written about it yet for us) the principles of ideology and how it determines history.

We’ll also make some serious predictions. Most of the big picture events I predicted over the last twenty years have either come to pass, or are in process now, like the rise of China, the fall of America, the immiseration of Americans, the rise of authoritarianism, undeniable climate change, the fall of Crimea, the 2008 financial collapse and so on. We’re due for another financial collapse, and I’ll discuss why, how it will most likely play out, why it’ll be the last one which can be “papered over” and put it in the context of the US’s demotion to regional great power.

In terms of fundraising goals, for every two thousand dollars we raised, I’ll write a long article on one of the “Laws of Heaven”, the principles which create and sustain good societies, in Machiavelli style dictums.

One of these is the “Law of the Predator”.

Anyone who will take what they want from someone weaker than them cannot be allowed to have any power.

Rules such as these, and “keep the rich poor” are foundational. When we don’t follow them, usually without realizing we are, our societies inevitably rot and turn into something hellish for the majority of people.

Readership is up a fair bit this year, even after removing bots. People want to read what is written here. But to write, money is, alas, necessary. I hope you will subscribe or donate. The goal is $12,500, the same as last year. If you’re personally in financial trouble, if food or shelter is an issue, please don’t give. If not, and you value this blog, please do.

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(Afterword. If you had a subscription and think it’s still running, please check. When credit cards change, the subscription ends. I always let people know, but email messages don’t always get thru. If you can’t use paypal to donate, let me know. Snail mail still works or if you’re Canadian, an Interac transfer. (Most US cash apps do not work in Canada. You can reach me at admin-at-ianwelsh-dot-net, about this or anything else.)

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 28, 2025

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On September 28, 2025

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 28, 2025

by Tony Wikrent

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025 [mediaite.com]

‘An Egregious Abuse of Power’: Trump Orders Troops to Portland, Ore; OKs ‘Full Force’

Olivia Rosane, Sep 27, 2025 [CommonDreams]

In his latest attempt to turn the US military on an American city, President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he was sending troops to Portland, Oregon and had authorized them to use “Full Force, if necessary.”

“At the request of Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, I am directing Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to provide all necessary Troops to protect War ravaged Portland, and any of our ICE Facilities under siege from attack by Antifa, and other domestic terrorists,” Trump wrote on Truth Social….

Tear gas used on protesters at Chicago-area ICE site as immigration crackdown escalates 

[NBC News, via Naked Capitalism 09-21-2025]

Stephen Miller Claims Simply Calling Trump Authoritarian ‘Incites Violence and Terrorism’

Stephen Prager, September 25, 2025 [CommonDreams]

Trump Says Critical Coverage of Him Is ‘Really Illegal’

Luke Broadwater, Sept. 19, 2025 [New York Times]

President Trump said Friday that news reporters who cover his administration negatively have broken the law, a significant broadening of his attacks on journalists and their First Amendment right to critique the government.
A day after asserting that broadcasters should potentially lose their licenses over negative news coverage of him, Mr. Trump escalated his condemnations of the press, suggesting such reporters were lawbreakers….

We Are All Domestic Terrorists Now — Here comes the iron fist.

Hamilton Nolan, Sep 26, 2025 [How Things Work]

Trump’s new EO is the formal declaration of the rabid fascist war to crush political opposition. It is a statement of the administration’s intention to designate any institutions organizing and funding political opposition as agents of domestic terrorism, and then to use the toolset of “anti-terrorism” to harass, disrupt, and destroy them. The order first lists off some disparate recent events—the killing of Charlie Kirk and United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson, the pot shots taken at Trump during his campaign, the (half ass, not really) “assassination attempt” on Brett Kavanaugh—along with quasi-imaginary “Riots in Los Angeles and Portland” to paint a picture of a crisis of political violence….

New York Times v Sullivan: the 60-year-old Supreme Court judgment that press freedom depends on in Trump era

Emma Long [The Conversation. via SCOTUStoday 09-23-2025]

A 1964 Supreme Court ruling looms large in President Donald Trump’s effort to win a libel and defamation lawsuit against The New York Times, two Times journalists, and Penguin Random House, whom he’s accused of trying to damage his reputation and disrupt his 2024 campaign, according to The Conversation. The court’s decision in New York Times v. Sullivan made it clear that public officials have to clear a high bar to win defamation suits, proving not just that there were factual errors, but also that false information was published “with knowledge that it was false or with reckless disregard of whether it was false or not.” The ruling “provided the press in the US with one of the most protected spaces in the world in which to operate.”

Trump Gets His Indictment

Joyce Vance, Sep 25, 2025 [Civil Discourse]

This afternoon, a grand jury in the Eastern District of Virginia returned an indictment against former FBI Director James Comey. The two-count indictment is about a page and a half long. It charges Comey with….

Only one prosecutor signed the indictment, which is unusual. Trump’s newly appointed U.S. Attorney and former criminal defense lawyer, Lindsey Halligan, signed. Typically, the signature of the U.S. Attorney is accompanied by those of the prosecutor or prosecutors who worked on the investigation and will be handling the guilty plea or trial that comes next….

…We have a system of “notice pleading” in our criminal justice system, which means a defendant is entitled to notice of the charges against them so they can prepare a defense. It’s likely Comey’s lawyers will ask for a bill of particulars, which will force the government to specify the precise statements he is charged with making and the factual basis for the charges….

A sharp picture of the personal nature of Trump’s disregard for the rule of law

Chris Geidner, Sep 21, 2025 [LawDork]

The Trump Stablecoin – Building Power and Profits from the Inside

[publicbankinginstitute.org, September 23rd, 2025]

Donald Trump’s latest foray into financial innovation, the proposed USD1 Stablecoin, raises serious concerns about conflicts of interest and the potential looting of the U.S. Treasury. As advocates point out, if Trump were to consolidate control over what could soon become the largest stablecoin exchange, he would gain a private channel to influence and profit from dollar-denominated digital transactions worldwide. While the venture is not yet the dominant player, the combination of presidential authority and business ambition makes its rapid ascendance almost inevitable. What looks like a new tool for global finance could instead become a funnel for enriching Trump and his allies.

The danger becomes clearer when considering Trump’s control over the Treasury itself. The Department is responsible for deciding which stablecoin issuers are permitted to purchase U.S. Treasuries as the “backing” for their digital coins. By blurring the line between state power and personal enterprise, Trump could ensure that his exchange enjoys privileged access to government debt instruments, securing liquidity and legitimacy while starving competitors. This mechanism effectively transforms public debt—paid for by taxpayers—into a private revenue engine. In other words, Trump would wield Treasury policy not for national stability, but for personal enrichment.

“Extremely Disturbing”: What Does Trump’s “Antifa” Executive Order Actually Do?

Schuyler Mitchell, September 26, 2025 [Mother Jones]

…I spoke with Chip Gibbons, policy director at the nonprofit civil liberties advocacy organization Defending Rights & Dissent, about the Trump administration’s playbook for crushing free speech.

Gibbons has spent a decade submitting Freedom of Information Act requests to the FBI—including asking for the FBI’s antifa files in 2017—in an attempt to shed light on its domestic surveillance activities….

Trump Declares War on Left With “Domestic Terrorist” Designation 

[Ken Klippenstein, via Naked Capitalism 09-23-2025]

ICE Detains Des Moines Public Schools Superintendent

Brad Reed, Sep 26, 2025 [CommonDreams]

The Department of Homeland Security claims that Roberts was taken into custody as part of a “targeted enforcement operation.”

Alligator Alcatraz Is an ‘Extrajudicial Black Site,’ Immigrant Advocates Say as Detainees Disappear

Stephen Prager, Sep 26, 2025 [CommonDreams]

According to the Miami Herald, over 1,000 detainees in Florida’s immigrant internment camp have effectively “disappeared,” with family and attorneys unable to track their whereabouts.

It’s Happened: The United States of America Is No Longer a Democracy

Michael Tomasky, September 22, 2025 [The New Republic]

…We learned of all this the same day that Trump decided it was time to just stop pretending and ordered Attorney General Pam Bondi to prosecute three specific individuals: New York Attorney General Letitia James, Democratic Senator Adam Schiff, and former FBI Director James Comey. He declared all three “guilty as hell” and wrote on social media: “We cant [sic] delay any longer, it’s killing our reputation and credibility.”….

…The Justice Department is being destroyed—slowly at first, and now all at once. Most of the lawyers in the Civil Rights Division have left or are leaving. Ditto the Federal Programs Branch, the office that’s supposed to defend an administration’s claims in court. Reuters confirmed in July that 69 of 110 lawyers in that branch were skedaddling. The exodus figure for civil rights back in May was a similar 70 percent….

Combine this with what happened last week to Jimmy Kimmel, and I think we can now just say it. The United States of America is no longer a democracy. It’s not a totally authoritarian state. I’m obviously writing these words of dissent, as are hundreds, thousands of others like me. We’re still having elections, so far. Most courts are still functioning normally. At many levels where the White House can’t just do turnkey autocracy, there is ferocious resistance. And there is a defiant public making their voices heard, alongside a not-insignificant faction of Trump voters who are growing disillusioned with what they’re seeing. And as the polls tell us, the mad king is failing to win people over, and public opinion, at least much of the time, still matters too. These facts can reassure us….

Strategic Political Economy

The enshittification of solar (and how to stop it)

Cory Doctorow, 25 Sep 2025 [Pluralistic]

…In McKibben’s telling, everything about solar is going better than anticipated. Solar efficiency is increasing exponentially with prices falling through the floor. The material bill for solar is also in freefall. Everything surrounding solar is going amazing, too. Battery capacity is improving even faster than solar generation, and the best new batteries use the incredibly abundant element sodium (not lithium) to store those useful electrons. Long-haul transmission lines are crisscrossing the world.

Hyper-reliable electric cars keep getting cheaper, and the batteries are lasting much longer than we used to think they would. Some of these vehicles are nigh-miraculous, from the ebikes that get 5 miles to the penny, to the world’s heaviest EV, a dump truck that shuttles to a quarry atop a hill where it is loaded with rocks, then regeneratively brakes its way back down the hill, accumulating enough charge to get back up to the top again (a perpetual motion machine!). Heat pumps and induction tops are actually more efficient than burning natural gas – in other words, it’s cheaper to convert sunshine into electrons and electrons into heat than it is to just burn gas…

Then there’s the capacity. China’s solar capacity growth is insane – the solar equivalent of a new coal plant is coming online every eight hours. But it’s even more intense in poor regions of the global south, like in Pakistan, where a legion of installers have learned their craft from Tiktok videos set to songs from popular musical films, leading to one of the most rapid electrification rollouts in human history. The closer a country is to the equator, the more sense solar makes, of course, so solar is sweeping some of the poorest countries in the world, liberating them from the need to attract foreign currency they can use to buy dollar-denominated barrels of oil….

Fossil fuels are valuable because they are a chokepoint on the entire productive economy. Anyone who’s seen the Mad Max documentaries knows how this goes: even the most mid, paunchy, straw-haired boomer with volcanic bacne and shitty dress-sense can seize power over the whole population if he controls the supply of one of life’s essentials.

The fossil fuel industry is a magnet for people who love a chokepoint. These people are born tollboth operators and they never stop hunting for turnpikes. They are landlords for ancient corpses, charging the whole world rent to keep the lights on. They are chokepoint-trophic.

Read More

Chinese Companies Compete For Market Share & That’s Why Starbucks Is Toast

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On September 27, 2025

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Starbucks sells expensive sugared drinks, and some of them have coffee in them. It’s been very profitable and despite some declines, remains so. The CEO was paid about $96 million last year. He was brought in to “turn Starbucks around”, and his main moves have been towards returning Starbucks to its roots as a “third place”, which is to say, somewhere other than work or home where people spend time.

That’s a good idea, actually, because if all Starbucks sells is expensive drinks, which most people pick up, then it’s a lousy value proposition for consumers, especially for the mass of consumers who are seeing a lot of inflation and effectively decreasing wages. The average drink at Starbucks probably comes in around $5 and it’s easy to spend $7, and that’s just on the drink.

Now here’s the issue: American companies are most interested in profits. They want to make large net profits and pay their executives well, which they do by giving them stock options and in most cases juicing share prices by spending massive amounts on stock buybacks.

 

 

American companies are in the business of making whoever controls them rich. Sometimes they’re willing to make a long play and compete for market share, but generally ONLY if they think there’s a possibility of achieving a monopoly or oligopoly position. So there was tons of money for Uber & Lyft, because investors knew that in the end, they’d be able to reap monopoly profits, which they now are.

But in markets where there doesn’t seem to be that possibility, corporations are much less willing to compete aggressively for market share by beating the competitor on price. They prefer to compete in other ways: the third place, for example, or a product that is perceived as better and effectively “price clump”. If an upstart tries to break into an established industry they may briefly drop prices to keep them out, but that’s as far as they’ll go.

Now here’s the problem, Chinese companies compete aggressively for market share based on price. Starbucks used to be the player in the Chinese coffee house market. Then they had their coffee drunk by an upstart named Luckin. Luckin is opening about 10x as many stores as Starbucks. It has 16,000 stores to Starbucks 7,000, and its drinks, which include fancy ones, are about 30% cheaper. Starbucks definitely makes more per store, but Luckin makes more gross. There’s no “third place” about Luckin, they’re kiosks, you order your drink, usually thru your phone (which offers constant discounts) and pick it up.

Because they have massive scale, their unit costs are low, and they benefit from the usual “no one can beat the Chinese at scale” advantage. (Though Starbucks could have done the same, they just wanted to be a more luxury brand and get the extra profits.)

Gadallion goes into this in detail, if you want the nitty gritty, but this chart shows the speed of Luckin’s growth.

 

Now Luckin has come to America. The drinks are cheaper and Starbucks does a lot of pick up business. If you’re just going to pick up a drink, why not go to the cheaper alternative, assuming the drinks are about as good? And unlike China, American consumers are squeezed big time. (China’s 2nd and 3rd tier city consumers are doing well, Beijing and Shanghai consumers are currently under pressure from the housing bubble being smashed, but should recover in the next year or two.)

For now Starbucks has more stores worldwide than Luckin. But their unit costs are higher even now. If Luckin keeps expanding, and especially expanding in the US and S.E. Asia, Luckin’s unit costs are likely to keep decreasing.

It’s hard to see how this doesn’t end badly for Starbucks, unless they get Congress or Trump to intervene. There’s momentum with Starbucks: people are used to going there and keep doing so. But if there’s something cheaper, that’s about as good?

If they compete on price, they lose a lot of their profit margins and investors are already squealing about the minor drops they’ve recently experienced. If they don’t compete on price, Americans who are price sensitive and don’t need “the third place” move to them, and they lose massive amounts of volume. There’s certainly a niche and a fairly large one for “buy a drink and stay at the coffee shop to enjoy it”, and I suspect it’s pretty profitable, but it’s smaller than what Starbucks is right now, and what’s to stop Luckin, after it wins the price sensitive customers from opening “Luckin Luxury Cafes” or somesuch, offering actual premium drinks and comfy chairs and tables and laptop charging, and using their unit cost advantage to out compete the “third place” Starbucks?

This is a specific case of a general rule: Chinese companies want scale and compete on price. They’re like American businesses in the 50s and 60s. They offer value and they aren’t trying to maximize profits by maximizing prices, because they’re used to an economy which has actual price competition.

I used to spend a lot of time in Starbucks, because they had stores in book shops, and I’d buy a coffee and read books for a few hours every day. I’d still be interested in that sort of thing and I have some emotional fondness for Starbucks because of what are, for me, good memories.

But it’s hard to be sanguine about their future. The third place stuff is fine, but if they want to survive, they’d better start competing on price while they still have a size advantage.

Most US companies are in a far worse situation: they’re already smaller than their Chinese equivalents. They can’t compete on price, it’s not possible, because they don’t have scale economies and can’t get them. As China catches up in quality and in many industries surpasses, they’re toast unless protected from Chinese competition, usually by law, geography or trade barriers. Businesses which aren’t, however, are about to experience what other countries experiences when Coke and McDonalds, in the 80s and 90s, came to town, or manufacturers experienced in the 50s and 60s before the rise of Japan.

Developing countries, with lower costs, have an ironic advantage when it comes to survival of many businesses. But high profit, high cost countries like America and most European ones?

Toast.

***

I appreciate everyone who donates or subscribes to keep this site (and Ian) running. Readership is up over 40% this year, and I’m very grateful. If you want to help the blog, please share the articles you like and if you can afford it, and like the content, please Subscribe or donate.

Open Thread

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On September 27, 2025

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Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

“How Can You Not Be Romantic About Baseball?”

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On September 24, 2025

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Fans of the Dodgers and fans of the Yankees–that would be me–know we are witnessing two of the greatest young men to ever play the game of baseball. But do the rest of you realize this? How rare and special this moment is? As we gouge out each others eyeballs over politics, let’s take a simple moment to celebrate two outstanding young men. Sound okay to you?

First I start with Aaron Judge, now entering the prime of his career, in a non-steroid era has already broken many outstanding records. In 2017 he became the first rookie to hit 50+ home runs in a season. He is the fastest player in MLB history to hit 300 home runs. And the fastest to hit and 350 home runs. He also broke Roger Maris’s single-season home run record of 62, without steroids. Personally, I believe that Barry Bonds, Mark McGuire and Sammy Sosa should all have an asterisk by their names and the footnote about it should be in all caps.

Judge is only one of four players, those players include Babe Ruth, Mark Maguire and Sammy Sosa, with four seasons of 50+ home runs. His rookie year, as I already wrote, he hit 50+. In 2022 he slammed in 62 home runs. He rocketed 58 home runs in 2024. And so far in 2025 he’s slugged in 51, counting tonight.

I’m a Yankees fan, but I also love baseball. I played the game from T-ball at 6 years-old well into high school. I never thought I’d see Godzilla in America but damn if he is not out on the West Coast right now. You do know I am talking about Dodger’s pitcher and hitter Shohei Ohtani, right? Simple fact: he’s probably the most amazing player we’ll ever see play the game. He’s just that fantastic. He electrifies crowd’s the way Michael Jordan did back in the day–and I saw MJ play several times.

Not since Babe Ruth has a hitter been such a dominant pitcher. That’s more than 100 years. Otani is simply unreal. This season alone he’s hurled 58 strikeouts and slugged in more than 50 home runs. No one has ever done that.

Last season, he hit more than 50 home, runs and stole more than 50 bases. That’s never been done. He’s created two new two clubs, one of which no baseball player will ever enter again. That was last season when he stole 50 bases and hit 50+ home runs. Judge, at 6’7″, 282 lbs., is an amazing hitter but simply doesn’t have the speed to steal bases like Otani, at 6’3″ 210 lbs., does.

Ohtani has something else Judge does not: a wicked pitching arm. He’s had 100 career starts on the mound in MLB and slugs like the Babe. He threw five no hit innings a few nights ago and yesterday threw 6 scoreless innings with 8 strikeouts. Unreal.

The only reason I post this is because I think that any baseball fan who’s reading this ought to take a silent moment of gratitude for the fact that we are witnessing two players unlike any we have ever seen in the game before. And also recognize that Shohei Ohtani is singular and unique, and we will never ever see his like play the game of baseball again.

To paraphrase, it’s just damn hard not to be romantic about baseball.

P.S. I’d be remiss, nay, negligent, if I failed to add The Big Dumper’s 60 home run season this year. We are truly witnessing baseball’s Golden Age. Only one non-Yankee in the American League has hit 60 homers in one season: Cal Raleigh, aka The Big Dumper.

If you’ve read this far, and you’ve read some of my articles and most if not all of Ian’s, then you might wish to Subscribe or donate. Ian has written over 3,500 posts, and the site, and Ian, need the money to keep the shop running. So please, consider it.

London & New York Are Toast

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On September 24, 2025

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Stumbled across this recently: 

  • China aims to become custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves to strengthen its standing in the global bullion market, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • The People’s Bank of China is using the Shanghai Gold Exchange to court central banks in friendly countries to buy bullion and store it within the country’s borders.
  • The move would enhance Beijing’s role in the global financial system, furthering its goal of establishing a world that’s less dependent on the dollar and Western centers.

Remember when the US stole Venezuela’s gold? Remember when the West “froze” Russia’s reserves, including gold?

Actions have consequences. Since most countries do more trade with China than with the US, let alone the laughable UK, and since China appears a lot less likely to steal one’s reserves, this rather makes sense.

China does almost half of its trade now in Yuan, and the the remaining is often in local currencies. (The Russians pay in rubles, for example.)

When  you add in the trade flows, and bear in mind this is 5 years old and today China has overtaken in more countries…

Well, why exactly would you use US dollars for trade, or use New York or London as your primary foreign banking center? You’d be a fool if you did so, if you’re outside of the West+allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan.)’

The US stock market is also VASTLY over-valued. There hasn’t been a proper market correction which was allowed to stick in generations. The idea that US public companies are worth more than China’s public companies is ludicrous. As the actual world economy is now centered on China, not America, this will become unsustainable, because the US dollar is going to copy what happened to the UK pound over the 20th century, and the US will no longer have currency seignorage: if other countries don’t want it, the US can’t just print it without massive and crippling inflation.

This means the eternal rising market created by Greenspan and treated as sacred by every President and Federal Reserve Chairman is in its last gasp. No matter how much they will wish to prop it up, they won’t be able to without crippling side-effects beyond what can be papered over by printing more money and giving it to rich people. (All of this before the fact the stock market is currently an AI circle jerk, with companies buying NVidia chips for AI and NVidia then investing in those companies. When AI turns out to be an ordinary tech, useful for some things but not revolutionary, BOOM.)

Meanwhile:

This is a big deal. This is what GE and Siemens sell. Now there are Japanese and Korean and Chinese suppliers, but this a key technology. And Iran can make it now. GE has the largest installed base, followed by Siemens (German), but why court sanctions risk and repair parts being cut off?

When the Ukraine war started, Siemens withdrew from Russia, and refused to maintain already sold turbines.

Woops.

Again, core tech that used to be controlled by the “North” is spreading across the world. Hell, the Houthis are making their own farm combines!

And it’s China where the future is happening, including the Jetsons future:


The US isn’t even on this technology, let alone moving to scale. Let me remind you of the rule of Industrial dominance:

When there is a dominant industrial power (Britain to 1860, America from 1920 to 1965) you have to be ahead in tech to compete, because the dominant power can always scale cheaper than you.

This is an industry where the US and Europe aren’t even on the playfield. Worse (or better), it’s the sort of industry that, in wartime, can easily be converted to military production.

We’ll end with one more chart:

It’s over. It’s all over. The West is sinking into industrial and technological second place and it’s a second place that is long way behind first place. Further, massive US research cuts and a monomaniacal obsession with one tech (so called “AI”) indicate that the US isn’t serious about catching up, but has accepted its decline, whatever the political rhetoric may be.

This leads to the end of the American Empire, to vassals pulling away, and to a massive and sustained loss of standard of living, just as it did in the UK. Combined with ecological issues, I expect the American experiences of decline to be faster and worse.

***

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Words From the Right: Some Surprising Restraint, Some Shocking Horror

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On September 23, 2025

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By Nat Wilson Turner

In the aftermath of Charlie Kirk’s assassination, I’ve been following the American right especially closely.

I want to share two responses that I initially found surprisingly sensible and reassuring, and one response that is appalling in its shamelessness, vile almost beyond belief.

And even the second response ultimately left me chilled by the end.

The first was a podcast featuring former BlackRock portfolio manager Edward Dowd that I was watching because I’m a financial doomer. The conversation turned to Charlie Kirk:

Edward Dowd: Anecdotally, people are saying they’re leaving the Democrats because they’ve lost. A lot of normal Democrats who aren’t high media consumers who just are watching what’s going on and hearing some of some of the people that they thought were friends saying abhorrent things are running (from the) center to the right.

So that needs to show up in the poll numbers because right now it’s anecdotal.

The worry of course is this Charlie Kirk assassination. Charlie Kirk interviewed me three times. He’s a wonderful human being. I’m 58 and I marveled at his communication skills and his ability to create what he did from such a very young age.

I mean, he was he was a phenom in at 19 and he just built something that, quite frankly, I was in awe of. He was quite an individual and I’m sad that he’s gone.

But when you step back and analyze this, my biggest fear is that this is the beginning of a divide and conquer strategy. I’ve said forever that this is a class issue, not an us versus them, left versus right, black versus white, Hispanic, Muslim.

This is this is a class issue and we are at the end of a grand cycle and we need to focus on who’s really in charge and the divide and conquer strategy has been well used throughout the millennium.

The key to focus on is whatever narrative is coming out. If it’s about dividing, ignore it. And remember, this is a class issue. When I say class, I’m not talking about someone with $10 million. I’m talking about the oligarchs, the super ultra wealthy, the .01% 01% that control the lion share of the wealth of the globe.

I must admit I was not expecting a former BlackRock portfolio manager to come out with a class war angle on Charlie Kirk. I must say I agree.

Which might make me more open to the things he had to say about the COVID pandemic and illegal immigration later in the video, or maybe not.

The second was a video featuring John Robb of Global Guerrillas, a security consultant to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (and a tech millionaire who was involved in the creation of RSS, among other things). Robb was contacted by a younger self-described Patriot, Brian Keith, in the aftermath of Kirk’s death, and the two streamed their conversation live on X.com.

Keith described the conversation as “part WTF, partly why am I so angry, partly how can I avoid being someone else’s tool, and how to deal with this swirl of current events.”

He goes on to quote some advice from Robb’s writing that inspired the conversation:

Brian Keith: I remember I was out hiking when I heard about (the death of George Floyd), and I remember being tribalized on the side of anti-cop when I was experiencing the empathic triggers that you talk about. And then later upon learning more, you realize, wait a minute, what I was immediately experiencing was quite different from after I had backed away from the empathic trigger or looked at more of the data, I had quite a different conclusion than I had in that first moment.

But that was then. This time’s different. This time, my immediate response is right, because my tribe I’m currently identifying with is completely accurate. So that’s how I feel in the moment. And you’re talking me down in chat.

With George Floyd, it was I didn’t know at the time when I first saw the empathic trigger. It was a black guy in an inner city of some kind. But it was police violence and I’ve experienced police harassing me. So it was sort of like me.

But then there’s Charlie Kirk. Charlie Kirk’s a lot like me. He’s who I wish I would be in some ways. So can you help us, John? Can you help us not necessarily decouple from the empathic trigger, but contextualize it in a way that helps us be more sane and less tribalized, make better decisions?

John Robb: With Charlie Kirk you feel that the bullet hit the neck it’s an internal transfer it’s a massive amount of information from the head of the victim how they’re seeing the world their fear their their desperation and it comes right into your head and it’s instantly modeled and it’s overwhelming . We don’t have the kind of barriers that we would have in real life when we’re online. When that happens, you feel an intense rage at the perpetrator.

You’re immediately jumping to a conclusion that fits your new framework, your tribalized mentality. That somebody says something, they’re immediately enemy. non-human, absolute evil. And if you get to that point where you’re bouncing around like that, you’re just a redshirt in Star Trek kind of thing. You’re just a fodder.

Keith: You don’t have any agency in this conflict. And what does fodder look like in the digital age? It looks like retweeting things or commenting on things or… acting in a way that if someone was attempting to control you they would want you to act as opposed to treating yourself as an individual that has ability to orient that might be different than someone else who looks sort of like you. Yeah, um fodder.

So far so good, right? Then the conversation took a turn that I wasn’t expecting, which sent a chill down my spine:

Robb: Usually in a civil conflict, the people who get activated, who lose agency, are the first ones to jump on board, the first ones to initiate violence. Those are the people that almost invariably get killed. Those people, those groups are run over by the bigger players that come later. So just for this audience you don’t want to be in that first group.

Keith: This reminds me of Eric Prince’s new phone, where some of the thought when he came out with his new phone was, well, do you want to be aligned with Eric Prince?That may have significant pros or significant cons in the future, depending on what you believe the future holds.

And now all this happens and Prince is on Twitter saying executions, executions, executions. He could easily be the next president right now. I’d vote for him. Trump has a few days before he loses me. I’m like, no, no, we need executions right away.

Because I’m so angry that it’s the whole seeing red thing. It’s seeing red for a guy I’ve never met in a place I’ve never been and yet, I’m ready to say, oh yeah, Eric Prince, President for life. Executions everywhere. No mercy against them.

Robb: But that’s life. You’re connected at a deep level. And that’s one of the major reasons Trump has to act, to designate many of these groups, left activists, as terrorist organizations and act. in order to prevent the kind of upswing and violence where we get those kind of street battles between the right-taking kind of revenge or action against these groups at a level of violence that we haven’t seen so far.

I’d like to see some compelling evidence for this wave of “leftist” violence before the death of Kirk is used to justify a horrifying clampdown in the U.S.

I’m not aware of any actual leftists in the U.S. with any measure of influence, and I’m not aware of any organized “leftist” violence since the Weather Underground disbanded in the early 1980s.

But let’s get to the really bad, totally appalling shit.

Of course, it’s Deputy White House Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, speaking at the Kirk Memorial in Arizona:

So yeah, this is bad, and things will continue to get worse in the United States.

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