Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

American Will Try To Maintain The Monroe Doctrine. Can It?

The Chief of Staff hints as much:

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs hints at military combat deployment “in our own neighborhood.” GEN. DAN CAINE: “ We haven’t had a lot of American combat power in our own neighborhood; I suspect that’s probably gonna change. We’ll see what we’re ordered to do.”

Venezuela is the current target, but there have been rumblings about Colombia, and you just know every slavering knuckle dragging neocon wants another crack at Cuba.

China gets a lot of resources from Latin America, and they want more. America regards Latin America as its backyard, the place where it has a right to overthrow governments at its whim, and where no other great power is allowed.

Obviously most South American countries not currently run by US aligned regimes aren’t too thrilled with the danger America constantly represents if they do anything the US doesn’t like. So they’ve been increasing their ties to China.

America is weakening. It’s falling behind China militarily, economically and technologically, and it will continue to do so. What it does still have, however, is far more military projection ability than China, and Latin America is nearby.

The US can’t offer Latin American nations as good an economic deal as China: America doesn’t need as much resources, its goods are more expensive, it charges more for loans and it no longer build bridges, ports, hospitals, railroads and so on.

Any sane Latin American country is going to want to move under China’s economic sphere, and most of them have. Even Argentina, an American lackey. (Milei talked big about cutting trade with China till he got in power, then he backed down fast.)

Worse, China has cheap effective drones and far better missiles than America, including anti-ship missiles. Plus air defense systems.

So the window for using military force to get friendly governments in charge of Latin American countries is closing. The longer the US waits, the harder it will be and before long it’ll be impossible. Bring those aircraft carriers close enough to be useful, start a war, and you’ll eventually lose one once China has finished arming its allies. (Plus Russia will happily sell as well, especially once the Ukraine war is over. Revenge is a dish best served cold and with a side of missile.)

This, it should be clear, is a desperation move. It is an attempt by a great power in serious decline to hold on to some remnants of its empire. It is part of a general move to try and tax vassals at a ferocious rate (that’s what the 5% of GDP on military goods is, a tax. Buy American weapons!) At the same time the US is trying to remove industry from its vassals and re-shore it. These efforts will succeed for a while and fail in the longer run, but they’re what the US has, since it can’t actually generate real growth (not fake GDP growth, but the real thing) itself any more.

In the medium run, the US will not be able to keep the Monroe doctrine running. The military advantage has just moved too much to new weapons which are cheap and effective at damaging the US military projection stack. If the US couldn’t even keep the sea lanes open against the Ansar Allah (the Houthis), when real countries, even developing ones, get their hands on enough Chinese and Russian missiles, drones and air defense, it’s all over.

Then, slowly, the Chinese will overthrow most of the puppet states, because they just have more resources and offer a better deal and will be seen as friendly. Countries near China may be scared of it, countries in Latin America know they’re far enough away that what it offers is a far better deal with far fewer chains than the US can, or ever did. (The same is true of Africa.)

This all falls under “Empires do not go quiet to that long night”. It could be very bloody. But the end is not in question. I doubt they’ll even hold on to Mexico. The way they’re going, America might eventually even lose control of Canada. Incompetence, greed and denial are powerful drugs, and America is high on all of them.

The long night approaches for the American Empire. Other than Europe and Japan’s comprador leaders, few will miss it.

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 07, 2025

by Tony Wikrent

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025 [mediaite.com]

A Hard Truth About the DC Shooting 

Corbin Trent and America’s Undoing [via Naked Capitalism 12-02-2025] Important.

Trump’s Kill List, Brought To You By Obama And Cheney

David Sirota, December 02, 2025 [The Lever]

More than a decade ago, I asked a question that seemed fit for a Black Mirror episode: Who cannot be put on a president’s extrajudicial kill list?

Only that query wasn’t something out of a dystopian sci-fi series. It was in response to some real-world news: In the name of fighting terrorism, President Barack Obama had asserted the power to order executions without a judge, jury, or trial.

At the time, some of us were concerned that the power would be abused both by Obama’s administration (which extrajudicially executed three U.S. citizens) and by future presidents. Those concerns intensified after a federal court rubber-stamped Obama’s kill list, and after Obama’s spokesman brushed off the drone killing of an American teenager by saying he “should have [had] a far more responsible father.”

Fast forward to today, and the fears expressed more than a decade ago seem justified as President Donald Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth order extrajudicial murders on the high seas in the name of fighting the drug war (all while Trump pardons a drug trafficker convicted in a court of law).

Fears grow inside military over illegal orders after Hegseth authorized follow-up boat strike 

[The Hill, via Naked Capitalism 12-02-2025]

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. (There you are Mago!)

Server Migration and Comments

The server migration is complete, and DNS propagation is underway. If the posts you see suddenly changed, that’s why.

As I wrote yesterday (in a disappeared post) most comments from yesterday after the snapshot used for the migration are taken are gone as the server was migrated from that snapshot of the site. Any comments from before DNS propagation reaches you are also lost.

It should all be worth it in terms of actually getting to the site, however!

If you’re reading this post, you’re reading the site from the new server and commenting is safe.

Any issues, comment below.

This move plus plus fixing up the site has been pretty expensive and was/will be paid for by donations and subscriptions from the fundraiser. When I’ve written that the site wouldn’t exist without your support, it was (and is) literally true.

Too Big To Fail Fails In China

Roughly speaking there are two types of corporations in China. State owned (SOE) and private. During the policy driven real-estate bust, the countries biggest builder, Evergrande, went under.

But there was an assumption that the government would bail out real-estate SOEs.

Well the largest one, Vanke, is going under, and the central government is going to let it. Moreover, Shenzen’s (China’s Silicon Valley, but on steroids) has repeatedly bailed it out and that means that not only is the central government not bailing out a SOE, they’re letting a municipal government (arguably the most important in the country) take a huge hit. That will send a message to all other municipal and provincial governments.

The biggest mistake of the US financial collapse was the bailout of participants. Every firm which had financialized should have been allowed to go under. The few that were truly necessary should have been put back on their feet AFTER the shareholders and bondholders took their hits, and after being broken up. Collateral damage (those companies not responsible, but simply getting hit by the backwash, such as GM, could receive bailouts in exchange for a government stake.)

Capitalism has issues even when run properly, but it is a simple proposition at heart: people who allocate resources well should be rewarded with more resources to manage, and those who allocate resources badly should lose their ability to allocate resources. Every participant in over-financialization had made bad allocations of resources. For the American economy to operate, they needed to no longer be participants.

Take over the banks and brokerages, and either shut them down, or break them up. That included the bond rating agencies like Moodys.

The failure to do this meant that decision makers know (or believe) they can make risky bets that cause systemic economic issues, bets that damage the economy as a whole and expect to be bailed out rather than be required to take their lumps. (And, ideally, be investigated for fraud, which most of them were guilty of.)

An economy where economic decision makers are incentivized to take big risks which hold the entire economy hostage (because they might not be bailed out if the risk isn’t systemic) cannot work and doesn’t. The US economy requires a backstop that amounts to the full expectation that the Fed will print trillions on demand to bail out bad actors. (The current main bad actors are the AI cartel.)

China is, oddly, the only major economy in the world that runs markets more or less right. (Though they let their own real estate casino run for too long.)

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The Four Steps Guide To Learning

Sometimes it seems like half my life was spent learning something new. The more I’ve learned, the more I’ve thought about how to learn, and I’m going to distill part of the process down for you. These methods are primarily about intellectual matters: mastering a subject, but are easily adapted to practical and creative skills.

The four steps are:

1) Study/Read.

2) Think about.

3) Discuss (something is to be learned from your superiors/equals and inferiors.)

4) Do (write in intellectual disciplines). You must try out what you learn to own it.

The first step is reading or going to lectures or watching someone else do the task you want to learn. In intellectual matters I suggest finding the shortest book on the subject to start. If it’s well written it will give you a map of the subject. That map may be wrong or oversimplified, but it is a start.

Once you’ve got that map, spend some time thinking about it. This means two things: get it to the point where you can run thru the entire map or model in your head, or speaking out loud. Then spend time examining the map: are there places where it seems incomplete or potentially wrong?

In the discussion stage find someone to discuss what you’ve learned with. They need to be interested and engaged, but the level of knowledge is less important. If they’re ignorant, you wind up teaching them, and that shows what you don’t know. If they know about as much as you, you can easily bounce off each other. And if they know much more than you, they can point out issues and suggest further reading and interesting questions you should ask.

If you have no one available to talk to, have an imaginary conversation. Daydream it. You can use someone you know (I often imagine past teachers) or you can imagine someone well known you’ve never met. What would Socrates or Plato or Kant say about this philosophical issue? What would Napoleon or Sun Tzu say about these military issues? What would the Buddha or Jesus say about this religious issue? What would Adam Smith, Marx or Keynes say about an economic issue? What would FDR, Thatcher, Stalin, Pericles or Deng do about this political/economic issue?

The discussion stage can be viewed as an extension of the thinking stage, except you’re getting someone else’s thinking: a different viewpoint than your own. You can talk to multiple people, or seek multiple imaginary perspectives from historical figures whose thinking you understand well. “What would X say about this?”

In the doing stage either teach what you’ve learned, or write something about it. Explainers are fine, so are argumentative pieces. Once you’ve finished, get feedback from your student and think about what you had trouble teaching, or put what you wrote aside, then read it a couple days later, ideally out loud. Ask yourself what you don’t understand yet, what doesn’t make sense, or what seems wrong.

Then read the next book or attend the next lecture or watch a practitioner performing. This recursion should be based on what you didn’t understand or problems you found or just what you’re curious to learn more about.

And then… think, and discuss, and do.

All thru this remember, you will only truly master what you love. This should be an enjoyable loop, even the frustration should encourage you as long as it comes with “I don’t get it, and I want to and I look forward to figuring it out.”

If you want to do particularly well, learn to express what you’ve learned fairly and strongly, BUT look for where it doesn’t work. Is there a place where the logic doesn’t flow, where it’s not coherent? Are there real world cases it would not predict or predict incorrectly? These anomalies tell you where to go next.

Don’t just look for where it doesn’t work, though, look for where it does. Few intellectual tools work in all circumstances. What’s it good for?

And as you learn, stack up models. “Neo-classical economics works for this, Marxism works for that. Keynesianism explains this well. Austrian economics….”

Then you wind up with a multi-faceted understanding and intellectual tools you know when and where to use, and and when not. That is very close to mastery.

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Possible Site Down Time

One of the things I did with the money from last years fundraising drive is hire a Dev to fix the issues with the site, like it often being down and slow loading, and with the mailing list.

This may mean the site has some down time over the next week. It should be more than worth it to get the site operating reliably.

And my thanks to all donors and subscribers for making it possible to get this fixed. I’m OK at simple website tasks, but 16 years of uptime and a server move have left the site’s back-end in a snarl which needs a professional.

Update: OK, we’re looking at Wednesday next week or so. Going to migrate the server to somewhere more appropriate for my needs. Emails will take longer to fix, so if you’re an email subscriber you will NOT be receiving emails for a couple weeks. My apologies, but it WILL be sorted.

Britain To Restrict Jury Trials, Ending Jury Nullification For Political Crimes

Without jury trials, there is no justice:

David Lammy, the justice secretary, told The Times that the scale of the backlog – which has reached nearly 80,000 cases – is failing victims as he warned that “justice delayed is justice denied”

Lammy is expected to announce that he will scrap the right to trial by jury in “either way” cases, where defendants have the choice to have their cases heard in the magistrates’ or crown court.

Last year there were an estimated 13,000 either way cases – including theft and handling stolen goods, burglary, assault causing actual bodily harm, fraud, dangerous driving and possession of drugs with intent to supply – went before juries. 

Or you could spend more money and hire more judges and judicial staff? As usual, the real reason for the backlog is that governments after government have made cuts to the justice system.

But I suggest connecting the dots. All those people being arrested for protesting Palestine, they won’t have the right to a jury trial either. Which means that juries can’t nullify the law by refusing to convict.


Oh yes, she’s a terrorist.

The war on terror, as an aside, has reached the point many of us predicted at its start: anything the government wants to say is terrorism, is terrorism. As a rule I oppose most strengtheners. A crime is not more of a crime if it is motivated by hate. We already have motivation based modifiers in law (the difference between manslaughter and murder is intent) and those are enough.

But terrorism is particularly egregious because the way we define it is completely arbitrary at this point: it’s just “whatever a government says is terrorism, is terrorism.” Even in the past it was bullshit, because “killing civilians to effect political change” is something governments do all the time, but don’t call terrorism. The biggest terrorist organization in the world right now isn’t Palestinian Action, it’s Israel. At least by any sane definition. But even there, who cares? The actual crime isn’t “terrorism”, it’s genocide and the penalty for that is either execution or life imprisonment.

The UK government is becoming one of the most authoritarian and repressive in the world. To end jury trials for a huge class of people because they can’t be bothered to tax rich people like themselves is the very definition of tyranny, especially in Britain, the very mother of the right to be tried by ones peers, not some appointed judge who will often rule exactly as those who appointed them want.

Pathetic.

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