In the aftermath of several errant Russia drones crashing into Poland, said nation’s foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, invoked Article 4 of NATO, and whilst giving an interview to a German paper, called for “a limited, NATO/EU-run no-fly buffer for drones nearing alliance airspace.”
Dmitri Medvedev, the former president of the Russiann Federation while speaking at a Russian Security Council meeting on Moday said that “Russia would consider NATO forces protecting Ukrainian airspace as a declaration of war. . . .”
Russia, it should be added, asserted that “that “no targets on the territory of Poland were planned for destruction,” and that the drones it used in Ukraine have a flight range of no more than 700 kilometers (435 miles).” I would add the Russian first deputy Permanent Representative to the UN made a very good point in an interview this morning. He asked simply, “cui bono?”
Cui bono notwithstanding, a lot remains open for interpreation, especially without the evidence being reported on seriously and assiduously. (Which won’t happen in the West.) That said, the number of drones that landed or were shot down in Poland is troubling. Look at this map for a better idea of what worries me. I’ve heard several explanations, from Ukrainian spoofing and EW warfare, to a false flag operation. Spoofing, EW warfare, cui bono or false flag–any others?–really doesn’t matter. It is simply bad ju-ju for all parties concerned.
Regardless of what really happened, are we absolutely insane?
Have our diplomats and leaders lost all touch with reality? If we declare and attempt to enforce a No-Fly Zone over the Ukraine we are declaring war on the Russian Federation. Declaring war on a nuclear power that could absorb a full force first strike by the USA much better than we could absorb their very robust response is as stupid as someone with brains for dynamite who cannot blow the wax out of their ears if their brains exploded.
Thank heavens for the brothers Lieven, one, Dominic, is an historian of empire, the other, whom I will quote below, is foreign policy analyst that writes frequently for the site Responsible Statecraft. Anatol is an adult in a childish firmament of foreign policy know-nothings, like Kaja Kallas. As one Russian observer said about her: she is critically undereducated. But back to Anatol, as he writes on the drones falling in Poland: “We should remember that during the Cold War, there were a number of far more serious violations of air space by both sides, some of them leading to NATO planes being shot down and American and British airmen killed. These incidents led not to threats of war, but careful attempts to de-escalate tensions and develop ways to avoid such clashes.” What a mature idea. I wish we had more adults in the room, so to speak.
The whole Ukraine debacle has only unravelled our power faster than if adults were running our foreign policy. And a No Fly Zone over the Ukraine is the height of childish, bat-shit crazy ideas. But then, we have not had an adult running our foreign policy since George Schultz left foggy bottom on January 20, 1989. I take that back, the last adult to manage our foreign policy was James A. Baker, who left foggy bottom on August 23, 1992. It has been unipolar willy nilly serially destroying nation after nation ever since.
It has got to stop. I just fear how it ultimately will stop.
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Nat Wilson Turner
It is quite frightening. I suspect one of the reasons for our Interregnum of Unreality is caution on the part of America’s major ops who don’t want to provoke a suicidal attack from the dying eagle.
The Intereregnum of Unreality (2008-?) is one in which The Empire can suffer enormous, humiliating defeats in what is basically the WW3 preseason, but it cannot be openly, undeniably revealed to the populace of the US that we are no longer the world’s dominant military power.
It’s why pausing the 12 Day War was so critical. It was essential for everyone to temporarily deescalate things before someone got nuked.
Now Bibi’s Qatar attack is another instance of possibly self-destructive overreach. Poor Ukraine is losing out on the narrative control as they’re slowly strangled by the Russian python which has little interest in conquering territory and every interest in drawing the UAF into bloody battles that are slowly but surely demilitarizing Ukraine, their #1 stated goal in the SMO.
Mark Level
This is a timely post from Ian, but it makes the assumption that the squawking chickadees of “Project Ukraine”, “Let’s break up Russia into 17 pieces and loot it dry, let them die of starvation like in the 90s”, the 2019 Rand Study & all the other insane Rube Goldberg fantasies haven’t already been decisively quashed, and the Fat Lady hasn’t started singing when she is mid-aria.
NWT’s right to call it an Interregenum of Unreality, and that’s all it has ever been. These “strategies” are just projections of Denial, Bargaining, and other useless defense mechanisms for the former Imperial Warlords seeing it slip away, like finding Ozymandias’ broken statue in a barren desert.
Here is a link to Alex Christoforou which is quite valuable– https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScmzB9FBlog
The “drones” were pretty much all diversionary and not weaponized per he and Mercouris in an earlier dispatch, and he covers that people across Poland are joking about the styrofoam embossed “war machines” that could barely hurt a fly. Yes, this is 100% a False Flag, #197 or so, it’s hard to keep track. “The butchery of Bucha”– revealed to be Russian speakers rounded up in the area 2 days after Russian troops withdrew, tortured and murdered and then put in mass graves as supposed “innocent Ukrainians”, readily discredited by Aaron Mate and others years ago, & too many others to seriously even count. Remember the summer of 2023 when Ukraine fired a rocket up into Poland killing 2 farmers working late at night and declared it was “Putin” and Article 4 had to lead to Article 5? Even the Biden loonies couldn’t be bothered with that. (It was the day after Olivia Newton-John died, as I recalled, and there was a fear WW III was here for nearly 24 hours.)
TACO Trump has struck again, just watch the Christoforou piece. The fantasy that they would sanction China, India and Russia and refuse any/all gas is already being abandoned, there are a few of them that understand this is collective economic suicide in a very brief timeline. Trump is distracting by blowing up anyone boating off the Venezuelan coast and declaring Victories!! against the Spics’ Narco-Trafficking. Hollow theatrics, only his dumbest mouth-breathing fans even buy it.
In the meantime there is good news. See the NC piece yesterday on Spanish public opinion forcing the leadership to oust Israel and give them the BDS treatment going forward. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/09/spain-rebels-against-israel-and-its-genocide-in-gaza.html
The Baltic Russia-haters like Kallas, who you reference, or the lunatic Sikorsky will foam at the mouth and declare Russia Delenda Est. Facts on the ground prove otherwise, “The little dog barks and the caravan moves on.” NWT neglects to mention the SMO’s secondary promise of DeNazification which will follow in a bit.
Meantime a convoy of boats are headed to try to relieve the famine in Gaza, 50 boats from 44 countries (Spain prominent among them.) The Israeli reputation is beneath the toilet in the pipes below and they may unleash mass murder and hasten the worldwide condemnation and disgust. They know no other methods. Trump told Bibi he could have his extermination in Gaza City but to “make it quick”, he doesn’t need too much more attention here. Even the utterly despicable Mike Johnson shut down the Lindsay Graham sanctions in Congress, per Trump’s order, as Christoforou reports.
I was mistaken about DJT’s stroke, evidently, but the regime is shambolic. Every day it’s a new looting strategy either for him and family personally (a $1.5 Billion lawsuit against the WaPo) or for his looter buddies, “no more quarterly corporate reports,” that exposes criminality and the economic failures that are coming.
They’re desperately stealing everything that’s not nailed down NOW, they must know that when the Social Security cuts come in Dec. of next year, the members of their base that aren’t jumping ship over suspicions on the Charlie Kirk Murder (so classy of Bibi to do a whole news conference denying they did it) and other Israel First moves will abandon them.
I’m generally not a fan of Right Wing thought, but unlike the pacifier-sucking Libs, those people don’t wave off being kicked in the gonads or teeth lightly. I believe shit is falling apart here so quickly that the old “Left/Right” ID politricks distraction is sand dropping down the hourglass. We’ll see however, I could certainly be wrong.
But “the adults” in China, Russia, Iran, Spain, hell even the mass of French protesters are investing their energies wisely and not imagining Victory and Endless Dominion due to the Butterfly Wing effect in some undisclosed location. EUrope has a very brief period of time in order not to teeter over the cliff. Their Leadership class may voluntarily throw those societies off it, but no Victory or sudden Resurrection of the Dead will follow.
Ian Welsh
This -post is by Sean-Paul Kelley, not Ian.
Mark Level
Thanks, Ian, caught it on the 2nd Read. It still originates on the IanWelsh website, that’s my dodge I’m sticking to it!!
Just kidding. I shouldn’t post before finishing coffee.
Jorge
To revive my joke from 2022- there is already a No-Fly Zone in Ukraine. You not Russian, you no fly.
Feral Finster
European strategy since 1917 has been to get Americans to do their fighting for them.
Again.
This stands to reason, as europeans are effeminate (you have never truly *lived* until you have gone shooting with europeans!) but they are skilled and being courtiers, at pageantry and kissing the asses of senile monarchs, skills honed over centuries of prancing around, flattery and dancing attendance.
Feral Finster
What we are seeing since 2008 is not exactly an interregnum, but the transition of the United States into an empire, without bothering with the charade of pretending to be anything else.
mago
True FF. A buncha mama’s boys.