The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Author: Ian Welsh Page 13 of 410

Understanding Canadians’ Reaction to Trump’s Threats

Most Americans don’t understand why Canadians are so angry about Trump’s actions, and his talks of annexation.

I think hockey illustrates it well. Back in 2014, the singer who sang the American anthem’s mic failed at a hockey game. Canadians finished the song:

Just recently, fans at a Montreal game booed the anthem.

Here’s the thing: Ordinary Canadians thought that America was Canada’s friend.They really believed this.

Thus, hearing Trump’s threats, and seeing how many Americans back them, and how Americans deride and insult Canada, they feel betrayed.

The opposition to joining the US is in super-majority territory: over 80 percent. Canadians like being Canadian and think our society and form of government is better than America’s. They know Americans think the opposite, but it never occurred to most of them that America would try and force Canada to give up its sovereignty, or economically attack Cnanda.

Of course this is foolishness. America has never had friends and never will. It’s an antagonistic nation of bullies, and they have a long record of invading and bullying other nations. But ordinary Canadians, like ordinary people everywhere, don’t really think such issues through. Americans are a lot like Canadians and Canadians consume a ton of American media and tended to identify with America.

Personally, I’ve always been worried that America would turn on Canada, and since the ’90s I’ve been pushing for Canadian policy to recognize that. So, if we can avoid an invasion, I’m somewhat pleased that Trump has torn off the mask and shown the barbarian beneath. Even if the political elite is still in denial, it pushes us towards understanding the world more realistically. There is only one country that can credibly threaten Canada, and it’s been that way for as long as Canada has existed. Hell, since before Canada was formed.

Oh, and Americans: America doesn’t protect us from anybody but America. For Canada, NATO is and always has been nothing but an American protection racket. A proper Canadian military wouldn’t be an expeditionary force designed to help American overseas wars; we would lend naval and air support, with a lot of icebreakers, and an army primarily trained for insurgency to defend the only country in the world which has ever been a threat to us.

But I agree. Canada should spend a lot more on its military. We just shouldn’t spend it on US tech, as Canadians have begun to recognize:

Defence experts warn that The United States controls many of the key systems onboard Canada’s new warships, allowing the Americans to hold this country hostage over future upgrades or even the provision of spare parts.Taxpayers are spending as much as $80 billion on a new fleet of Canadian Surface Combatants to be constructed at Irving Shipbuilding.

Article content

The heart of each of the warships is the command management system, which controls weapons, radars and other intelligence-gathering equipment.

Originally that high-tech system was supposed to be Canadian-made and under the full control of the Canadian government.

But that was switched out for a made-in-the-U.S. technology called Aegis, allowing the Americans full control and oversight of the supply of parts, modifications or future upgrades, industry officials confirm.

“This is what happens when you exclude Canadian companies: You find yourself potentially being held hostage,” explained Alan Williams, the former procurement chief at the Department of National Defence. “We don’t control the (combat management) system; the Americans do. Who knows what they are going to demand from us?”

Other Canadian defence industry officials acknowledged the same concerns — they asked not to be named as they did not want to jeopardize ongoing contracts with the federal government.

You don’t make your military dependent on the good will of the country that is the primary threat,and you get what you pay for.

This blog is free to read, but not to produce. If you enjoy the content, donate or subscribe.

Europe and Ukraine Aren’t at the Peace Table; That Means They’re on It

Russia and America are going to have a peace summit about the Ukraine war — without Ukraine or any European country. This is slightly less ridiculous than the previous peace summit, which didn’t include Russia because Russia can fight on without anyone but China’s support, whereas if the Ukraine tried to fight on without US support, it’s cooked.

Well, sort of. Ukraine is cooked any way you look at it. It was always going to lose the war, and that hasn’t changed.

What’s amusing about the what’s being floated is that Europe is supposed to send the peacekeepers and pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine and the US is supposed to… well, maybe get some of Ukraine’s wealth, though Zelensky has quite rightly refused to sign that deal.

Interestingly Zelensky had, at first, expressed willingness, but when he got to the White House, it turned out that he was being offered nothing in return. It seems the Trumpian right feels that Ukraine has been taking advantage of America and owes it.

So, the US, which was the primary actor behind the Maidan coup and Ukraine’s actions since then which contributed to the war, who was almost certainly responsible for cutting Europe/Germany off from Nord Stream gas through sabotage, wants the Euros to foot the entire bill for ending the war.

Any European leader willing to chew down on this has less than zero self-respect.

And the sheer chutzpah of saying that Ukraine has taken advantage of America reminds me of the guy V.P Cheney shot apologizing to him. None of this would have happened if the US hadn’t pushed for it every step of the way, and the US and UK were responsible for Ukraine not taking an early, far better peace deal.

The issue, of course, is that neither Europe nor Ukraine can sustain the war without American support. It’s lost, but the Euros could veto the deal if they could keep the war going alone and drag it out enough that it was worth Putin dealing with them.

There is another way, of course. Europe could offer Putin an end to sanctions and repair of NordStream. They could ask China to be the peace guarantor, which makes sense because China is, actually, the only country Russia has no choice but to listen to. They could cut a deal with China at the same time.

Then they could leave NATO and build their own militaries up. Kick out 90% of all American diplomats and all remaining post-USAID NGOs at the same time, to help avoid the inevitable coup attempts.

All this requires is either a modicum of self-respect or a scintilla of self-interest. When Europe’s power has disintegrated to the point where they don’t even have a seat at the table on how a war being fought on their soil should be ended, it’s either a wake-up call, or the end of Europe’s significance.

More realistically the best hope is that multiple European governments fall and are replaced by those who have enough pride or self-interest to strop grovelling.

Europe has no prospect of being what it once was. But it could be a regional great power. It’s that, or returning to what it was for much of history, a meaningless Eurasian peninsula full of barbarians.

 

You get what you pay for. This blog is free to read, but not to produce. If you enjoy the content, donate or subscribe.

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated posts.

In The New Cold War, One Side Will Be Weaker and Less Prosperous

This is the sort of thing the US used to be able to do, and Britain back in its day:

China has built over 30,000 basic-level smart factories as part of a nationwide push to accelerate industrial digitalization and intelligent upgrading, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).

The initiative, under the smart factory gradient cultivation action, has also seen the creation of 1,200 advanced-level and 230 excellence-level smart factories…

…The 230 excellence-level factories, distributed across all 31 provincial regions in China and covering over 80 percent of manufacturing sectors, have carried out nearly 2,000 advanced scenarios, including smart warehousing, AI-powered quality inspections, and digital research and development, said MIIT.

On average, these factories are 28.4 percent shorter in product development cycles, 22.3 percent higher in production efficiency, 50.2 percent lower in defect rates and 20.4 percent lower in carbon emissions, said the ministry.

Meanwhile, in South and Central America (a similar map could be done for Africa and chunks of Asia):

So, here’s the thing. Under the threat of Trump’s tariffs, Canada and the EU have been offering America to get tougher on China. “China’s the real enemy!” they scream.

Problem is, in the new Cold War, China’s going to be the stronger and more prosperous side. Russia, and most of Asia, Africa and South America are going to align with it. It will soon be in the “US after WWII” position of having more industry than everyone else combined, and it’s already leading in 80% of technological fields. It won’t be long before that’s 90% and I wouldn’t be surprised if in 15 years it’s damn near 100%.

Choosing to align with America is choosing to align with a declining Empire. It’s like laying your bet on Britain in 1918.

I don’t think this is a done deal for all of Europe. The old order is dying, new parties are challenging the old center-right and center-left parties and while the current leadership are lapdogs, the future leadership in many countries will not be. All China has to do is offer to not de-industrialize Europe, or all European countries have to do is cut a deal along those lines.

The sooner one makes the deal, the sooner one defects to the winning side, the better the deal will be.

It is my judgment that it won’t be long before the two best countries to live in are China and Russia. They are rising, and rising fast and the West is in decline. America’s strategy of cannibalizing its allies industries is stupid, because its allies industries are old legacy industries which are mostly already surpassed by China, and those that aren’t, like Pharma, soon will be.

There’s no reason to be loyal to America. Trump’s made it clear that the United States has no loyalty to anyone else, and it’s offering a really shitty deal. Russia doesn’t want to conquer Europe. They conquered half of it once before and it didn’t work out, they just want security.

This won’t happen this year, that’s clear, but smart nations will make the switch as soon as possible. I suspect the EU is likely to break up, so some European countries will change sides, and some won’t. But if it is done as a group of nations, even if not the whole bunch, the deal will be better.

The Cold War is already in its late early stages. I was writing about it as early as 2017, and it’s gathering steam. This is the new world. Choose your side, but for most countries, choose you must and wise statesmen choose the winning side.

 

This blog runs on donations and subscriptions from readers. It’s free, but not free to produce. If you value it, please give.

 

Trump’s Actions Are Opportunities

And lo, there was much gnashing of teeth and rending of hair.

Trump’s human garbage, of course. A bully, probably a rapist, suffering from some sort of mental disability, incoherent and mean.

And those are his good points.

Trump’s destroying the remains of America’s empire. He’s probably accelerating America’s decline, though there’s a possibility he might slow certain aspects of it, if others (like the EU) let him.

But most of what Trump is doing is creating opportunity. Let’s take the cuts to science funding: they’re going to leave a lot of scientists out of work.

That means there are a lot of scientists that other countries could easily, trivially even, scoop up. If they have the sense of a gnat, which most of them don’t. University and research cuts have been the rage in many countries (UK, I’m looking at you) because of delusional austerity policies, but central banks like the ECB can print hundreds of billions, even trillions of dollars, it would be simple enough to print a few hundred million to set up a bunch of research positions.

Anyone who wants to can do this: Europe, Canada, Australia, various Asian countries. Scientists want to science, and if you offer them a credible opportunity to do so, they’ll emigrate to your country and work for you. Same thing with engineers, great philosophers, etc, etc…

So as Trump lays waste, glean the corn which lies in his wake.

Likewise Trump’s attack on his allies opens up possibilities which were not politically viable before. Leaving NATO, for example. Putting on your own tariffs, which is illegal, basically, but since Trump has just broken about every trade treaty the US is signatory to, why not? Give subsidies, also usually illegal, but who cares? Ignore trade rulings against you which favor the US, why not, they don’t obey those rulings. Run full fledged industrial policy, because while it’s still technically illegal, it’s now politically viable.

Stretch a little. Instead of, as some European symps are suggesting, offering Trump more anti-China policies, go to China and cut a deal with them instead: tariff America and cut a trade deal with China which allows you to build some industry, or gets your branch plants and so on.

Stretch a lot. Tell Russia you want the gas to FLOW and offer to help rebuild the pipelines. Send out your navy to patrol and make sure there are more accidents. This is your chance to save Europe’s remaining industry from being slurped down by America.

Trump has changed the world. He’s done, doing and will do things that were unthinkable to previous Presidents. But that frees you, he’s broken the Western consensus, and done so in a way which makes it clear he doesn’t care what harm he does to America’s allies/vassals/satraps.

So break free! The real chains are in  your minds, politicians. You’ve spent generations doing thing one way, but now you don’t have to. Break the chains of your mind, and then break the chains of your nations.

Freedom awaits, along with the responsibility which comes from it. Fail to accept freedom and responsibility and America and Trump will decide what your country becomes.

If that’s what you want, if you want to avoid responsibility, be assured you’ll get what you deserve.

This blog runs on donations and subscriptions from readers. It’s free, but not free to produce. If you value it, please give.

Gaza Ceasefire Deal In Danger Of Collapse

So, Hamas decided to not release any further hostages until Israel meets its end of the phase I deal.

The response from Trump?

“If all (not only those agreed in the ceasefire deal to be released in multiple phases) prisoners are not freed by noon Saturday, the ceasefire will be revoked, and hell will be unleashed on Hamas.”

Trump has also made clear his plan to take over Gaza:

“I will owe Gaza and, as far as us rebuilding it, we may give it to other states in the Middle East to build parts of it. We are determined to own it, to take it. We’re going to make it a very good place for future development. The Palestinians will have no right of return to Gaza under my plan to take it over.”

And he has told both Jordan and Egypt that if they refuse to take the Palestinians, he will cut off all aid to their countries, crashing their economies.

Hamas has really only two choices: agree to ethnic cleansing in hopes of avoiding further genocide, or withhold the hostages to maintain some level of leverage, since the hostages are clearly important to Trump, if not Israel. Trump, of course, though cunning and a bully, is and always has been rather dull and undisciplined. As a bully, he can sometimes be backed down by those willing and able to stand up to him.

Israel hasn’t met its side of the deal. Until it does, Hamas can’t meet its side of the deal or it will, like Hezbollah has, lose all effective leverage.

I find it hard to predict Trump. I expect even Trump finds it hard to predict Trump. We’ll see what happens going forward, but a return to the genocide seems more than possible.

Trump proved that the President can control Israel if he wants to, and that he can end the genocide essentially at will, but all the people whispering in his year are Zionists, with no one to speak for Palestinians who is close to him.

That doesn’t bode well.

This blog runs on donations and subscriptions from readers. It’s free, but not free to produce. If you value it, please give.

 

It’s The End of the American Era. Period.

The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

Commenting on all the stupid (like Musk’s antics) is tiring sometimes.

I was trying to figure out what to write today. There are about a dozen possible posts, all of which amount to “Trump or Musk are flinging poo at the wall.”

So let’s forget all the stupid little details no one will care about in even ten years and cut to the chase.

America is in irreversible decline. If you think otherwise, you are living in a fantasy world. China will even take the lead in Pharma away from the US, probably no later than 2030. The US military can’t even keep the shipping lanes open and Carrier groups no longer have a full support group.

Trump is not going to make America Great Again. Even when Trump and Musk do the right thing, they do it the wrong way. There’s a lot of administrative bloat at universities and hospitals, and reducing that is a priority. But simply cutting the administrative grants overnight leaves no time for adjustment and will smash institutions to flinders. This might not matter if it was 1995 or even 2005 and the uS was still in the lead, but right now the US can’t afford the time to do things the stupid way.

Trump is breaking the Constitution. He doesn’t have the right to decide not to distribute money entailed by Congress unless Congress gave him the right. He doesn’t have the right to ignore judges who tell him not to do illegal and unconstitutional things. If Trump’s changes go thru, there will only be one real branch of government, the Presidency.

During The Decline America is Dangerous. America’s era of preeminence is cooked, there’s no question, but decline takes some time. The US is still insanely powerful and that makes it dangerous to anyone weaker than it within reasonable reach. This means, of course, that there’s almost no one in the world who shouldn’t, for purely pragmatic reasons, want the US to go down faster. The sooner it falls, the safer everyone else will be. Well, unless you’re Taiwan, but that’s foreordained already, it’s just a question of when.

America is Canada’s Enemy. No other nation is threatening Canada’s very existence, after all. America has never, ever, protected Canada from anything but itself and the only real threat to Canada has always been America. Trudeau said Trump is serious about annexing Canada, and Trump has confirmed it.

America is Europe’s Enemy. It has been at least since Biden’s presidency, where the deliberate policy was to cut off cheap energy and encourage European (aka. German) industry to relocate to America.

America is all its “allies” Enemy. America wants to cannibalize its allies industry and bring it to America. It doesn’t care what happens to its friends, with the exception of Israel, because of Israel’s massive influence in America, much of it certainly based on blackmail. Every American ally now needs to cut ties and either make a group alliance without the US, or make its obeisance to Beijing and try and cut the most favorable deal it can. Early movers will get better deals.

Europe Needs To Grow Up and Kick Out America. Europe’s weaker than it’s been in generations, and far weaker than it was in 2005 when I first suggested this path, but it’s still got enough industry, science and engineers to reindustrialize and build its own army. Cut a deal with Russia and China, kick the Americans out and stop whining about how you can’t defend yourselves without America. That’s a choice: you still have the ability to create your own arms industry and you have plenty of unemployed youngsters you could put in said military.

China is the next leading Great Power and it could be the next superpower if it wants it. I’d argue it already is the leading great power much of the world. Certainly it’s more important in most of Asia and Africa than America is. It will take the lead in, essentially, every scientific area. It is already the most dominant manufacturing power and that will only decline when it realizes that it, like the US after WWII needs to send more of its industry overseas or there won’t be anyone worth selling to. or any allies worth having.

This is the Era Endgame. This is what I’ve been writing about and towards for over two decades. This is it, this is America in irreversible decline, losing its constitutional government and descending into a non-military from of Caesarism. Maybe Americans will avoid the fate of rule by Imperial Presidents, it’s at least theoretically possible. For everyone but Americans and maybe Mexico and Canada the best outcome would be America breaking up. But no one outside of America should be doing anything but preparing for America’s fall, protecting themselves from America, and positioning themselves for the new era where China is dominant.

Why Claiming Gaza’ Death Toll Was In The Ten Thousands Mattered

For most of the Gaza “war” official civilian casualty numbers were in the mid tens of thousands. They rose quickly at first, then they rose slowly, which was odd, because as time went by there were fewer and fewer hospitals, less food, less clean water, less medicine and less of Gaza that wasn’t rubble. There was every reason to expect the death toll to accelerate.

It now seems like the death toll is around four hundred thousand, perhaps higher, out of an initial population of 2.2 to 2.3 million.

The official numbers were offered by Hamas and they were obviously wrong, on the face of it. I don’t entirely know why, but there are some likely possibilities:

  • The longer the war went on the less capacity there was to count the dead;
  • Lots of dead were buried under rubble or otherwise hard to count;
  • The Ministry wanted to give the most conservative number, only what they could actually prove, rather than what they knew was actually the case. Similar to how most climate change forecasts are wrong to the downside. They figured this would protect them from charges over inflating the numbers or being alarmist.
  • Hamas wanted lower numbers because, after all, it looks bad when they can’t protect Palestinians, essentially, at all.
  • Israel went along with it because while they knew damn well that they were committing genocide, the lower the number the easier their propaganda job was, since for some odd reason a lot of non-Israelis think genocide is bad, even if you do it to “subhumans.”

It’s the last two which are most important. There’s a big difference between the official death toll of 46,600 and a death toll of between 300,000 and half a million. Tens of thousands could indicate depraved indifference to Palestinian civilian deaths rather than deliberate genocide, if you were inclined to believe that already. Hundreds of thousands makes it much, much harder to deny.

This is why I railed against those who uncritically repeated the official death number, even if they were anti-genocide. It’s why the Lancet publishing higher estimates mattered. It’s why I wrote that I figured the actual death toll was closer to half a million.

It’s also a good idea, generally, to not believe obvious bullshit.

Gaza was a genocide and the scale of the genocide matters. Trump now wants to ethnically cleanse those who remain, and who knows, he might let the Israelis restart the genocide if the ethnic cleansing plans fail.

This blog runs on donations and subscriptions from readers. It’s free, but not free to produce. If you value it, please give.

Page 13 of 410

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén