The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

April 6th US Covid-19 Data

There as been significant improvement in the rate of increase of both deaths and existing cases. Original predictions were a peak at April 9th (at a 0 percent rate); our benefactor notes that seems unlikely, but we’re definitely moving in the right direction.

Note that when cases drop and we are taken off isolation, what will happen is another round of infections, then another round of isolation. Some states are still not isolating and some started only recently, so there’s still road to go, and those non-isolating states constitute pools of infection. I expect a significant spike from Florida, assuming the deaths and cases are counted.

Both death and infection rates remain understated. We will only find out the actual number of deaths when population studies are done afterwards.

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 5, 2020


Saving Your Local Economy, 4-6-20


  1. Aqua Lung

    Without access to the unfiltered raw data, these numbers don’t have much merit for me, especially at it relates to trending and drawing conclusions that the worst is over. Stoller recommended, and I agree, a method for backdooring all of this absent comprehensive testing. The infected rate, due to lack of comprehensive testing, would have to be deduced, but an accurate deaths statistic would require taking the average deaths for the same time period for several years prior and comparing it to the current deaths for the same time period this year. Any excess can be attributable to COVID-19. That’s not being done from what I can tell and we know the reason it’s not is because the powers that be, be those powers in America or China or anywhere else, want to manage perceptions. Managing perception is paramount to loss of life, meaning if the choice must be made to report all of this accurately in order to show the true magnitude in order to save lives or filter it to manage perception in order to maintain order, lives will be sacrificed for the latter. As many lives as it takes.

  2. Aqua Lung

    Rich folk, the top 20%, love them some mass murder. The Depravity Indicator, i.e. the stock market, is up nearly 6% so far today (I guess all those who had inside information are done shorting it) on the news that America is about to experience an explosion of massive death. Blessed are the rich, for they shall inherit the earth.

  3. Zachary Smith

    Here is some news about the latest activity of the Acting Navy Secretary. A fellow who justly deserves a nickname of “Richard Cranium”. Typical Trumpie Acting Appointee.

  4. It is with great sadness, especially in the midst of the pandemic, that I inform the community that Bond Girl “Pussy Galore” has passed away.

    On the plus side, she was 94, and died peacefully in her home of “natural causes”.

    So, there’s that.

  5. Chris

    Where do you get these charts from?

    Are they accurate?

  6. Bramlet Abercrombie


    Read the following post to learn where Ian gets the charts:

  7. Zachary Smith

    Chris –

    From Mr. Welsh’s post of a few days ago:

    A reader who wishes to remain anonymous is tracking Covid cases using the daily John Hopkins numbers and is now sending me the data, a very kind gift. These numbers are the confirmed numbers. Credible reports are coming in that not all deaths are being properly attributed, and of course, we really don’t know how many people have the virus.

    Are the graphs accurate? That would depend on the quality of the data. As they used to say, Garbage In, Garbage Out. It’s my guess the numbers are understated. Lots of people unexpectedly died of “pneumonia” during the first part of the year. Even now, there aren’t enough CV test kits around to waste them on the dead, so an unknown number still get tagged with “flu” or some such.

    Then you must consider the credibility of the reporter. I haven’t caught any blatant lies here, and until I do, I’ll tend to “believe” rather than “disbelieve”. This is quite unlike sources which have burned me too often. Consider this sub-headline:
    Latest UK intelligence suggests there is a credible alternative view to the theory that the virus came from animals
    “UK Intelligence” is a joke. I’d sooner believe some absurdity spouted by Rush “druggie” Limpaugh than anything from “UK Intelligence”. I’ll toss in the link for people who are bored enough to take a glance. IF, and it’s a big “if”, Coronavirus came out of a lab, about the only people who would know for sure would be the bigwigs in the nation where that lab was located.

    With the least bit of effort I could develop a “credible” thesis the inhabitants of the approaching planet Nibiru are trying to wipe out humans on Planet Earth so as to have it all by themselves. By inventing a lot of “facts” and “figures” and using grammatically correct English, I’d then rely on hooking enough gullible folks so my creation would suddenly become “common knowledge”.

  8. Hugh

    Zachary Smith, great link on the Modly Theodore Roosevelt fiasco. It was mindlessly stupid act by a mindlessly stupid person. The guy flies 8,000 miles to give a rambling, accusatory lecture to the crew of the ship over the PA system and then expects it to be “private.” Fact is he didn’t get the aid to the ship and crew when it was needed, explicitly states that he thought the “mission” of the ship in peace time was more important than its crew, exercised precisely the “extremely poor judgment” he accused Crozier of, and tops it off by qualifying all the negative coverage of his actions as political. Typical Trump hack: incompetent with whiny attitude.

  9. Ché Pasa


    And the sailors know it. Trump intervened, Modly apologized to the crew, Crozier, Crozier’s family (and the whole wide world) for his intemperate remarks, and they hope the whole thing will just blow over, poof, and go away. Of course it won’t.

    Be interesting to see how much of a revolt the sailors can stir and sustain. I expect not much, but these things have a way of spiraling out of control very quickly. Kind of like a pandemic…

  10. Stirling S Newberry

    “Without access to the unfiltered raw data, these numbers don’t have much merit for me, especially at it relates to trending and drawing conclusions that the worst is over. Stoller recommended, and I agree, a method for backdooring all of this absent comprehensive testing”

    The first intelligent thing you have had to say.

    Personally, I like the fact that Trump knew in January. There are insiders that want Trump gone.

  11. Stirling S Newberry

    How you know it is a “wake-up” crisis – Thomas L. Friedman is still writing for anywhere that pays him money and takes him seriously.

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