The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: May 2025 Page 1 of 5

Us vs. Them / Our Government vs. the Government

I think it’s clear that democracy and capitalism don’t work together. Capitalists always wind up buying the government, and the only solution is a Great Depression-sized catastrophe to help reset capitalist wealth. But then, over time, they will capture the government again.

This isn’t to say much good may not be done at various times. Usually, after things get bad enough, a generation winds up in power who is determined to make government work “for the people” because they’ve seen what happens when it doesn’t. War, revolution, poverty, depression, and so on. The second generation staggers on. They don’t really understand in their bones that government must be made to work for the people, and they compromise, but they keep it going, more or less. Then the third generation says, “Hey! If we ran the government for us and the people who can afford to pay us the most, well, we could live very, very well. Who cares about the “people?”

Often, the third generation needs to lie to themselves. They believe some intellectual charlatans: Milton, Friedman, Laffer…and later on, Fukuyama (of “We’ve won, it’s all over, it’s the end of history!” fame). The fourth generation doesn’t even pretend. It’s their government, and you peons can suck it up. (Everyone from Bush Jr. to Bush Sr. thought that neoliberalism was garbage, even as he implemented some of it. Billy Clinton appears to have been a true believer and made it work on sheer brilliance and micromanagement.)

But there’s another problem with representative government: Much like with the police, most people who want the power of government are the sort of people who shouldn’t have it.

What happens, one way or the other, is that government is run by people who run it for themselves, not for the people. It’s “the government,” not “our government.”

I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this, and I’ve come down on the side of sortition. Just pick leaders based on a lottery. Then run some medical tests on the ones chosen, to make sure they aren’t chronically sick or mentally disabled. Give them ten-year terms so they are in office long enough to have some institutional knowledge and have elections every two years for one-fifth of the number.

Anyone who serves gets a full pension of three times median income for the rest of their lives, and is disallowed from any other income. If you aren’t willing to do that, you can decline office.

I’m quite positive that random people who know that they’re going back to being almost regular citizens whose income is dependent on how society performs in the future will do a better job than normal politicians.

Oh, there are plenty of details to sort out, to be sure, but this is far more likely to produce “our government” than the current regime.

The next article on this subject will be on the next important change: How we do taxation? How do people contribute to “our government” and “society?” Spoiler: Taxing money is not the right way.

 

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

China Is Going to Win the AI Race

Yeah, it doesn’t seem that way, but it’s how it will turn out. What China’s doing is embracing actual open AI (unlike the company named Open AI). Open source and open standards. Everyone outside North America and maybe Europe is going to prefer that, and those who set the standards control the tech. On top of that, American AI is frighteningly expensive; no one in the US is making any money. Every query costs more to produce than is earned, even from customers who are paying, let alone all the free accounts.

Deepseek is much less expensive per query, however. The idea of capitalism is to, y’know, make money? There’s a limit to how much money Softbank can throw at AI if it doesn’t start providing at least some returns.

Further, American-style AI requires massive amounts of energy, and guess who produces the equipment needed to quickly build more generation capacity? (If you need more than one guess, you haven’t been paying attention.)

Every hyper-scale or “AI-ready” data-centre campus needs its own sub-station and a bank of step-down transformers big enough to deliver 50-150 MVA per site. Add the grid-side upgrades that utilities must make to back-feed those loads, and each incremental gigawatt of GPU capacity pulls several hundred megavolt-amps (MVA) of new LPT demand.

Roughly 80 percent of U.S.’s large power transformers (LPT≥100 MVA) are imported and lead-times have ballooned from 50 weeks (2021) to 120-210 weeks (2024), and the lone domestic GOES mill provides only a fraction of what new AI loads will require.

China dominates both finished-unit exports and nearly half of global GOES output; it also supplies critical sub-components such as tap-changers and bushings. GOES now fall under Beijing’s 25 percent retaliatory-tariff list and new export-licence regime.

Export licensing is China’s retaliation for the US “don’t sell China chips or lithography machines” regime. I’m sure they won’t drag their feet or outright deny exports to the US, when the US has explicitly restricted “AI” chips to attempt to cripple China’s AI industry. I mean, turnabout isn’t fair play, amiright?

Thing is, China has proved very good at using what they can get, or make themselves, and they’re making fast progress on chips, with the possibility of creating a new class of chips which out-performs anything the US has looking very likely. The US, on the other hand, cannot ramp up production of transformers on any reasonable timescale.

Reap, sow. Fuck around, find out, etc.

As for AI destroying all jobs, well, no. It makes mistakes too often, and in anything that matters even a one or two percent serious error rate is unacceptable.

I, at least, will laugh myself sick when Silicon Valley gets its lunch eaten by the Chinese on AI. I mean, it’s sad, because Silicon Valley bros are so humble, never brag and never lord it over anyone else. It’s not like they’re assholes whose entire business model is based on gouging and taking value from everyone else, and it’s not like modern “AI” is based on the most vast theft of other people’s work in history.

And them Chinese, man, who do they think they are? Embracing open licenses and open standards and actually trying to make a profit, like they have real competitive markets or something? Commies can’t do Capitalism better than America!

 

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

The End of America as the Essential Consumer Nation

For ages, everyone needed access to the American market. I used to call the US, “the consumer of last resort.” If you wanted to get rich, if you wanted to industrialize, if you wanted to scale, you needed the American market. Europe sold to the US, Japan sold to the US, South Korean and China sold to the US. This requirement is why Japan was forced to sign the Plaza Accords, which basically destroyed their future. Oh, life in Japan is fine now, but it’s no longer the roaring Tiger of the 80s.

But the US has lost its place, which is why China was able to laugh in its face when Trump tried to use tariffs against it. His assumption was that China needed the American market. This was true 20 years ago, maybe true ten years ago, but it’s not true now.

But wait… there’s more!

Not so pretty, is it? And unlike America, Chinese consumers aren’t in debt. Their market isn’t based on a deck of cards or predatory lending meant to lock consumers into never ending debt payments.

Looks a lot like America in the 50s and 60s, actually.

China’s growing fast, and certain respects, they’re growing smart.

China is building nuclear plants 2 to 4 times faster than the West and 3 to 7 times cheaper”

Further, China is building far more renewable energy than anyone else, and MAGidiots beliefs aside, it’s working out just fine for them. Ninety percent of new power in China is renewable.

You can see this on this lovely map:

Indeed, for the first time ever, China’s increasing energy demand happened at the same time as a reduction in CO2 production. If there’s a hope for us on climate change (there really isn’t, but still) it’s that China is the primary industrial power AND its leaders and population aren’t idiots who think climate change is a hoax or that it’s real but ignoring it is good for the economy.

Now this isn’t to say that China’s all wonderful or anything. They have high speed trains and they’re electrifying based on renewable energy and to a much lesser extent nuclear fast, but they still have an insane car-centric society.

Still, they’re more sane than any other major country, by a fair margin.

China is now the world’s largest consumer, industrial producer, ship builder, drone maker, auto manufacturer, leads in about 80% of tech fields, produces more scientific papers and patents than any other country, has 8 of the world’s top 10 research universities (Harvard is the only American university on the list, at , but…. recent events are not promising), the most electricity production and the cleanest energy mix of any major country.

The idea that China and the US have a serious rivalry is laughable. The US has lost. It’s like Britain in 1920. It’s all over, except, possibly, for the shooting.

 

This blog has always been free to read, but it isn’t free to produce. If you’d like to support my writing, I’d appreciate it. You can donate or subscribe by clicking on this link.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 25, 2025

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 25, 2025

by Tony Wikrent

 

The (anti)Federalist Society assault on the Constitution, Part 1

GOP Budget Would Make It Even Harder to Hold Trump Administration in Contempt

Shawn Musgrave, May 24 2025 [The Intercept]

…The looming showdown over the judiciary’s power to issue contempt orders stems from a single sentence tucked into the thousand-page budget bill, which passed the House of Representatives by a single vote on Thursday.

“This is a slap in the face to the concept of separation of powers,” said a spokesman for Senator Chris Coons (D-Del.).

If enacted, the provision — found on page 544 out of 1,082 — would restrict how federal judges can hold government officials or other litigants in contempt if they defy court-issued injunctions and restraining orders. Contempt is the primary enforcement mechanism available to courts, and in cases around the country judges have weighed whether to issue contempt findings against President Donald Trump’s deputies….

Although this is technically a budget bill, items in it from that wish list include a significant restriction on “the authority of federal courts to hold government officials in contempt when they violate court orders,” as Dean of Berkeley Law School Erwin Chemerinsky explained in Just Security Monday. “Without the contempt power,” he writes, “judicial orders are meaningless and can be ignored.”

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

 

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025 [mediaite.com]

 

Debating Trump “Ambush” of South African President With “White Genocide’ Lies

Yves Smith, May 22, 2025 [Naked Capitalism]
Trump’s goals were clear. I wrote yesterday that he was pushing the phony “white genocide” narrative to:
  • Retaliate against South Africa for going to the ICJ regarding the actual genocide in Gaza, to get them to back off more.
  • Cheapen the public discourse over “genocide” — helping turn it into just another meaningless slur.
  • Make it seem like Trump is standing up for alleged oppressed white folks, to play to some white working-class voters who don’t perceive that it’s actually — again — for Israel (similar to how they repackaged Palestine protests as an immigration issue).
  • Push back against BRICS to the extent it’s challenging US establishment dominance, or appears to be doing so.

He lectured him on alleged abuses in South Africa and Ramaphosa was at best doing a diplomatic defense.

Trump orders the government to stop enforcing rules he doesn’t like

Maxine Joselow, Hannah Natanson and Ian Duncan [Washington Post, via downwithtyranny.com 5-19-2025]

At the Transportation Department, enforcement of pipeline safety rules has plunged to unprecedented lows since President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Trump recently ordered Energy Department staff to stop enforcing water conservation standards for showerheads and other household appliances. And at one Labor Department division, his appointees have instructed employees to halt most work related to antidiscrimination laws.
Across the government, the Trump administration is trying a new tactic for gutting federal rules and policies that the president dislikes: simply stop enforcing them.
“The conscious effort to slow down enforcement on such a broad scale is something we have never seen in previous administrations,” said Donald Kettl, a professor emeritus at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. “It amounts to a dramatic assertion of presidential power and authority.”
This account of the Trump administration’s efforts to scale back application of many laws is based on interviews with more than a dozen federal employees across seven agencies, as well as a review of internal documents and federal data….
In some cases, Trump has personally ordered a halt to enforcement. The president on May 9 signed a memorandum directing the Energy Department “not to enforce” what he called “useless” water conservation standards for home appliances including bathtubs, faucets, showerheads and toilets….

 

Heather Cox Richardson, May 20, 2025 [Letters from an American]

Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem was testifying before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee about the Department of Homeland Security’s budget for fiscal year 2026. When Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH) asked her to define “habeas corpus,” Noem’s response indicated she has no understanding of the nation’s fundamental law.

“Habeas corpus is a constitutional right that the president has to be able to remove people from this country,” Noem said. Hassan corrected her: “Habeas corpus is the legal principle that requires that the government provide a public reason for detaining and imprisoning people. If not for that protection, the government could simply arrest people, including American citizens, and hold them indefinitely for no reason. Habeas corpus is the foundational right that separates free societies like America from police states like North Korea.”

 

The Russian Way of War and Why They Are Fighting in the Ukraine

I was reminded of this long post of mine from August of last year whilst listening to this fellow talking about the the Russian way of war and attritional war. He says,“If you have any idea about Russia’s history at war, you will see time and time again, from Charles the XII of Sweden to Napoleon to Stalin, the ability to absorb catastrophic initial losses over a number of years to then having large wins later on, and we are seeing this.”

I would simply add that the Russians trade space for time. Remember that Ukrainian Offesive in 2023 that was gonna end the war?

I recommend history. Read correctly history is much more like reading prophecy.

Random Late Saturday/Early Sunday Quick Hits

While researching a post I promised on why France collapsed so quickly in World War Two I came across this video on the Russo-German Reinsurance Treaty. Do yourself a favor and watch it. It will give you a much more balanced view of the man Bismarck–you’ll not be looking at him through the lens of World War Two or World War One for that matter.

Finally, I think all of us can agree that Disney Star Wars has been 90% joke. All except for Rogue One and the recently completed season two of Andor. As the Critical Drinker says, season two is “the kind of TV your sitting on the edge of your seat in complete silence knowing this is the kind of TV that comes along once every 5-10 years.”

I’ve re-evaluated my favorite Star Wars movies–not a single TV show, not even the silly Mandalorian makes the top five, except Andor. Obviously A New Hope is number one. Rogue One is number two, Empire Strikes Back is number three, Andor both seasons are number 4 and number five is a toss up between Return of the Jedi or Revenge of the SithWhat say you people?

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. No vax/anti-vax this week.

The Embassy Shooter’s Manifest

From Ken Klippenstein, written by Elias Rodriguez

The Embassy shooter’s manifesto is short, to the point and entirely sane. I won’t wring my hands and say I think he was wrong, I will merely note that it is illegal to kill Israelis, and that unlike the butchers of Gaza, he will be punished.

Explication

May 20, 2025

Halintar is a word that means something like thunder or lightning. In the wake of an act people look for a text to fix its meaning, so here’s an attempt. The atrocities committed by Israelis against Palestine defy description and defy quantification. Instead of reading descriptions mostly we watch them unfold on video, sometimes live. After a few months of rapidly mounting death tolls Israel had obliterated the capacity to even continue counting the dead, which has served its genocide well. At time of writing the Gaza health ministry records 53,000 killed by traumatic force, at least ten thousand lie under rubble, and who knows how many thousands more dead of preventable disease, hunger, with tens of thousands now at risk of imminent famine due to Israeli blockade, all enabled by Western and Arab government complicity. The Gaza information office includes the ten thousand under the rubble with the dead in their own count. In news reports there have been those “ten thousand” under the rubble for months now, despite the continual making of more rubble and repeated bombing of rubble again and again and the bombing of tents amid the rubble. Like the Yemen death toll which had been frozen at some few thousand for years under Saudi-UK-US bombardment before being belatedly revealed to stand at 500k dead, all of these figures are almost surely a criminal undercount. I have no trouble believing the estimates that put the toll at 100,000 or more. More have been murdered since March of this year than in “Protective Edge” and “Cast Lead” put together. What more at this point can one say about the proportion of mangled and burned and exploded human beings whom were children. We who let this happen will never deserve the Palestinians’ forgiveness. They’ve let us know as much.

An armed action is not necessarily a military action. It usually is not. Usually it is theater and spectacle, a quality it shares with many unarmed actions. Nonviolent protest in the opening weeks of the genocide seemed to signal some sort of turning point. Never before had so many tens of thousands joined the Palestinians in the streets across the West. Never before had so many American politicians been forced to concede that, rhetorically at least, the Palestinians were human beings, too. But thus far the rhetoric has not amounted to much. The Israelis themselves boast about their own shock at the free hand the Americans have given them to exterminate the Palestinians. Public opinion has shifted against the genocidal apartheid state, and the American government has simply shrugged, they’ll do without public opinion then, criminalize it where they can, suffocate it with bland reassurances that they’re doing all they can to restrain Israel where it cannot criminalize protest outright. Aaron Bushnell and others sacrificed themselves in the hopes of stopping the massacre and the state works to make us feel their sacrifice was made in vain, that there is no hope in escalating for Gaza and no point in bringing the war home. We can’t let them succeed. Their sacrifices were not made in vain.

The impunity that representatives of our government feel at abetting this slaughter should be revealed as an illusion, then. The impunity we see is the worst for those of us in immediate proximity to the genocidaires. A surgeon who treated victims of the Mayan genocide by the Guatemalan state recounts an instance in which he was operating on a patient who’d been critically injured during a massacre when, suddenly, armed gunmen entered the room and shot the patient to death on his operating table, laughing as they killed him. The physician said the worst part was seeing the killers, well known to him, openly swagger down local streets in the years after.

Elsewhere a man of conscience once attempted to throw Robert McNamara off a Martha’s Vineyard-bound ferry into the sea, incensed at the same impunity and arrogance he saw in that butcher of Vietnam as he sat in the ferry’s lounge laughing with friends. The man took issue with McNamara’s “very posture, telling you, ‘My history is fine, and I can be slumped over a bar like this with my good friend Ralph here and you’ll have to lump it.'” The man did not succeed in heaving McNamara off a catwalk into the water, the former secretary of state managed to cling to the railing and clamber back to his feet, but the assailant explicated the value of the attempt by saying “Well, I got him outside, just the two of us, and suddenly his history wasn’t so fine, was it?”

A word about the morality of armed demonstration. Those of us against the genocide take satisfaction in arguing that the perpetrators and abettors have forfeited their humanity. I sympathize with this viewpoint and understand its value in soothing the psyche which cannot bear to accept the atrocities it witnesses, even mediated through the screen. But inhumanity has long since shown itself to be shockingly common, mundane, prosaically human. A perpetrator may then be a loving parent, a filial child, a generous and charitable friend, an amiable stranger, capable of moral strength at times when it suits him and sometimes even when it does not, and yet be a monster all the same. Humanity doesn’t exempt one from accountability. The action would have been morally justified taken 11 years ago during Protective Edge, around the time I personally became acutely aware of our brutal conduct in Palestine. But I think to most Americans such an action would have been illegible, would seem insane. I am glad that today at least there are many Americans for which the action will be highly legible and, in some funny way, the only sane thing to do.

I love you Mom, Dad, baby sis, the rest of my familia, including you, O*****

Free Palestine

-Elias Rodriguez

 

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