Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. (Nothing about Ukraine, etc…)
Month: March 2022 Page 2 of 4
Leaders have power. They often don’t have to care what happens to most people, because those people can neither help nor hurt them. As a result, most leaders act badly, and hurt great numbers of people.
There are three qualities you need in a good leader of large groups.
1) kindness to people who can never help or hurt them. This is the origin of seeing how people treat waiters or other service staff.
The problem with this test is that a lot of people want to be liked by everyone they meet and are good at making it happen. Bill Clinton was famous for making everyone he met feel important. He also signed the bill slashing Welfare and did various other things that hurt many Americans and people overseas, in particular imposing murderous sanctions on Iraq and bombing a pharmaceutical factory.
Still, it’s the first test. It’s less important than the second and third qualities.
2) concern for the affect of their actions on people they will never even meet.
Most people a leader will affect he or she will never meet. So they have to care about people they don’t know, or they won’t try and do right by them. Almost no major politician alive passes this test. Jeremy Corbyn did: he cared about everyone.
3) Willingness to take away the power of bad actors, even if that hurts them.
If you care about everyone and won’t hurt a fly, you can’t deal with people who do harm. This was Corbyn’s flaw: he wouldn’t remove staffers and MPs who stood in direct opposition to his policies and beliefs and who made it clear they wanted to do him nothing but harm. The staffers took deliberate actions to make Labor lose the election and in 2017 the margin of loss was so small that Corbyn would probably have been Prime Minister if they hadn’t.
MPs could have been re-selected (made to undergo primaries when the majority of those voting were left-wing, to oversimplify) en-masse, but Corbyn never did that either. If he had, Labour would still be controlled by the left and would eventually back into power, whether Corbyn was leader or not. Instead Keir Starmer has done what Corbyn wouldn’t, and purged the party (of left wingers in his case) and, in fact, will probably back into power not because he is liked at all, but because people are sick of Johnson and the Tories.
The task of any form of selection of who leads is to select good leaders. It is clear that representative democracy does not do so, and so we need to find a better way. This is true of groups we don’t consider governmental, but which really are, like corporations, as well.
I don’t want to spend a lot of time on this, but the fundamentals are worth a quick review.
Russia had hundreds of billions of dollars on reserve at central banks. We have frozen them so they can’t spend them, and we’ve also forbidden banks, in general, to do almost any business with them in dollars.
So they have the money to avoid default, but are not allowed to use it to pay their debts.
This is like if you personally had an account at the bank for $10 million and they said, “We’ve frozen it so you can’t spend it, and we won’t accept money from anywhere else, but we still expect you to pay your mortgage.”
It’s obviously unfair, and everyone outside of the West knows it, as many countries have invaded other countries and none of them were hit this way. This punishment is so harsh because Russia is outside the club and didn’t have the nod or a similar punishment would have been doled out over Iraq, Libya, and Yemen, among many others.
It has made other countries scared for their money. Even countries that have license, like Saudi Arabia — who is currently bombing the hell out of Yemen with a sanction in sight.
Saudi Arabia is considering accepting the Yuan for oil payments.
Of course, the US is pushing back hard — that oil is priced in dollars, and it’s one of the main reasons the dollar is the global reserve currency.
But while the Sauds are in good for now, who is to say they always will be? What if one day the US decides to sanction them? Perhaps they see it as in their interest to diversify their reserves. Perhaps they also see Beijing as FAR less likely to sanction them? If they do, I agree. Just don’t piss China off about Taiwan, and the odds of China ever freezing your Yuan reserves or sanctioning you is essentially zero, not least because in order to grab reserve status from the US, they need to be more trustworthy.
I don’t know if the Sauds will do this yet; the pressure the US must be bringing is immense. But I do believe that when we look back on these massive sanctions, we will see that forcing Russia into default was the end of the dollar’s hegemony. This weapon has been used before, but only on marginal states. To do it to a Great Power is quite different.
The US can’t be trusted with your money. Before, people was perceived the US was the safest place.
For most countries, the dollar hegemony has been terrible; they sold American stuff and got numbers on a computer in return. (China on the other hand, played the game smart. They got the US industrial base in return and, even if the US freezes every dollar they have, they’ll still be ahead.)
Most countries will be better off in a de-dollarized world. But the US won’t, and if Europe stays a US satrapy (which most indications suggest it will) then it will be bad for them. Ironically, back in the early- to mid-2000s, the Europeans had the opportunity to make the Euro an independent reserve currency, but, as usual for Europe in the age of American dominance, they lacked the guts.
None of this will happen immediately. But I believe we’re either at, or within, a year of when we will be able to look back and see this as the tipping point.
It really is weird to have the “superpower” of being able to see the obvious.
Obviously, Iraq did not have WMD. Obviously, neither the Iraq nor Afghan occupations would succeed.
Obviously, letting Covid rip will cause a mass disabling event which will severely damage our societies.
Obviously China does not regard the US, in specific as a friend, as for 12 years the US has publicly stated, over and over again, that China is Enemy #1.
Obviously, Russia would not let Sevastapol be taken away from them.
Obviously, Russia would not let Ukraine join NATO.
Obviously, offshoring our industrial base to China would make them stronger and us weaker.
Obviously, immiserating our working class would make them hate the liberal order and vote against it when possible (Brexit/Trump, etc.).
Obviously, China has food and energy problems, and obviously, having Russia as a friend helps China fix those problems.
Obviously, China cannot trust the West for supplies, as the West has sanctioned China.
Obviously, the West hates China’s government and wants it replaced, and obviously, the Chinese government doesn’t like this and prefers Russia, which does not want to overthrow their government.
Obviously, Putin must win his war, or he will lose power and be killed.
Obviously, bailing out the rich in 2008 led to a sclerotic economy which cannot fix problems because central banks made a rule that incompetent rich people will be allowed to stay incompetent.
Obviously, not charging rich people with the crimes they committed which caused the financial crisis, but hitting them with fines which cost less than what they made would make them commit more and more crimes.
Obviously, if the rich control government (as per the Princeton Oligarchy study and common sense), and if Covid makes them much richer faster, the government will not seriously try to control Covid.
Obviously, if logistics and supply chain issues make the people who run the logistics and supply chain richer, they will not, themselves, try to solve the supply chain problems.
Obviously, the Ukrainian government’s statements about the war can be trusted just as much, or rather, just as little, as the Russian government’s statements.
Obviously, Democrats are going to lose the mid-terms, and Joe Biden will be (even more of) a lame duck.
Obviously, Biden doesn’t really mind Manchin spiking his program, or he would have gone after Manchin’s coal business or his daughter’s Epi-pen crimes.
Obviously, it will be to China’s huge, long-term advantage that they didn’t let Long Covid disable a huge percentage of their population.
Obviously, in ten years or so, almost everyone will admit that letting Covid rip was a mistake, just like most Iraq war boosters now admit they were wrong about Iraq.
Obviously, Israel is an apartheid state.
Obviously, most American, British, and Canadian politicians are terrified of the Israeli lobby and unwilling to cross it.
Obviously, the US is one of the most corrupt societies in the world, it’s just that US corruption is either legal — or if illegal, not prosecuted.
Obviously, Canada’s rich benefit from sanctions against Russia, because they sell the same things.
Obviously, having oligopolies control most of the US economy has led to inflation being much more than it would have been otherwise.
Obviously, Western central banks have spent 40 years crushing ordinary people’s wages relative to inflation.
Obviously, ex-Federal reserve governors, treasury secretaries, and most Presidents are rewarded for their services after they leave office with huge post-facto bribes, and obviously, they know they will be.
Obviously, Sinema & Manchin are being paid well to spike progressive policies.
Obviously, most European nations are American vassal states.
Obviously, giving in to American demands to reject Huawei 5G networks convinced China that European states are not trustworthy trade partners.
Obviously, Biden, who was a key driver of the bankruptcy bill which made it nearly impossible to discharge student loans in bankruptcy, was not going to cancel student loan debt.
Obviously, China does not want to accept world rules made when it was its weakest.
Obviously, India is trending dangerously authoritarian, and is in danger of eventually engaging in ethnic cleansing.
Obviously, climate change is now past the point of no return, because we clearly won’t do anything to stop it until it is too late. (Sorry, just obvious.)
Obviously, most Western elites don’t care if people they don’t know in their own societies die or are impoverished.
Obviously, our massive “shock therapy” looting of Russia in the 90s was going to lead to a strong man taking over. (I expected military, turned out to be secret police.)
Obviously, drowning the government in a bathtub would create vast corruption among private contractors and lead to an inability to handle crises like Covid which require state capacity (if we wanted to, which mostly we don’t — see above).
Obviously, Bangladesh will be one of the first non-island states to be destroyed by climate change.
Obviously, making the rich even richer will never lead to improvements for the middle and working classes, as opposed to controlling the wealth and power of the rich.
Obviously, massively inequal societies turn into oligarchies of some sort, even if they are nominally democratic.
Obviously, repeatedly invading other countries in violation of international law would make international law weaker, and make countries not inside the blessed Western circle cynical about Western law and leadership.
Obviously, sanctions never cause regime change and only hurt ordinary people (this is the record for sections, 100 percent of the time).
Obviously, Venezuela and Iran will never trust the US or the West.
Obviously, China doing most of the world’s development would make developing countries prefer them to the US.
Obviously, the Chinese would be mistrustful of Western nations and Japan for humiliating them for a century.
Obviously, many Indians prefer Russia to the US and Europe, because Russia has been a reliable ally to them since their independence, when no Western nation has.
Obviously, the invasion of Ukraine is not a worse war crime than the invasion of Iraq.
Obviously, if Putin should be tried for war crimes so should George W. Bush (and many others who never will be).
Obviously, getting the Saudis to spread their noxious form of Islam and to arm guerillas against the Soviets has blown back horribly and has caused mass devastation far beyond Afghanistan.
Obviously, centrists agree with right-wingers on most issues, because they never roll back what right-wingers do while in power.
Obviously, centrists hate left-wingers much more than they hate fascists.
In the Melian dialogue, the Athenians have sent a military force to the city of Melos. The Athenians urge the Melians to submit. If they don’t, the men will be killed, the children and women taken for slaves. The Athenians say, “The strong do as they will, and the weak suffer what they must.”
In other words, “Take the deal, or you’ll get even worse.”
This is, in essence, what Putin said to Ukraine, and Ukraine, like the Melians, refused. It is at the heart of most of US interactions with “enemy” nations since WWII, and especially since the end of the Cold War. Even if they didn’t promise destruction, enemies were told, “Resist, and we’ll destroy your economy with sanctions, and millions will suffer or die.”
There are two corollaries to this, however. The first is pointed out by the Melians:
But do you not recognise another danger? For, once more, since you drive us from the plea of justice and press upon us your doctrine of expediency, we must show you what is for our interest, and, if it be for yours also, may hope to convince you: Will you not be making enemies of all who are now neutrals? When they see how you are treating us they will expect you some day to turn against them; and if so, are you not strengthening the enemies whom you already have, and bringing upon you others who, if they could help, would never dream of being your enemies at all?
This is what the US did to many countries — these countries may not have declared their enmity, but they do not consider the US a friend. They view the US as a threat, and when the day comes that they can get their revenge, they will do so.
It is at the heart of what is happening in Europe: Rearmament. By using his military, Putin has convinced other nations, especially Germany, to rearm.
But there is a third side, mentioned by neither the Melians nor the Athenians.
“If the powerful can do this, if I do not do it, I am not powerful.”
A great deal of why Russia is doing what it is, and why it created all the little semi-states around itself, was in reaction to the US. “If the US can violate international law, create Kosovo, and go to war with other nations who are weaker than it, if we don’t, we admit we are not powerful.”
Powerful nations can violate international law. If Russia does not violate international law in the same ways as the US and its favored vassal states does, then Russia is admitting it is weak.
The massive sanctions response is a test. Is the West still strong enough to largely limit massive violations of international law to itself and its vassals, or is Russia capable of withstanding those sanctions, and therefore one of the strong?
This question has yet to be answered. It will take time. In large part, as I have pointed out repeatedly, it depends on China. Probably Russia isn’t strong enough; but China + Russia are.
And notice the key allies who are sitting this out: Israel, three of the four Gulf states, the Saudis, and to a large extent, Turkey.
“There is no difference to us between Ukraine and Iraq or various other violations of international law. We aren’t your allies because we are your friends.”
Meanwhile, the US is asking China, their declared #1 enemy for the past twelve years or so, to undercut Russia, because the real question isn’t about Russia, it is about China.
“The strong do as they will, and the weak suffer what they must.” Who are the strong in our world?
by Tony Wikrent
Strategic Political Economy
Eric Helleiner ─ The Neomercantilists: A Global Intellectual History
Eric Helleiner interviewed by Mark Blythe [Rhodes Center for International Economics and Finance, Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University]
.
James Fallows [The Atlantic, December 1993]
Americans persist in thinking that Adam Smith’s rules for free trade are the only legitimate ones. But today’s fastest-growing economies are using a very different set of rules. Once, we knew them–knew them so well that we played by them, and won. Now we seem to have forgotten….
The more I had heard about List in the preceding five years, from economists in Seoul and Osaka and Tokyo, the more I had wondered why I had virtually never heard of him while studying economics in England and the United States. By the time I saw his books in the shop beneath the cherry trees, I had come to think of him as the dog that didn’t bark. He illustrated the strange self-selectivity of Anglo-American thinking about economics.
TW: There is a simple answer to why Henry Carey and Friedrich List are unknown in USA today: the economics profession was corrupted. Michael Hudson explains what happened at Wharton to suppress and eventually bury the economic thought of Simon Patten.
From the Archives: ‘How the World Works’
James Fallows, December 26, 2021
The United States knows how to help foster advanced, high-wage, high-employment, globally successful businesses. But it has forgotten how to talk about that process honestly, and instead sinks into familiar political and media slogans.
TW: For Carey and his followers, political economy included a moral dimension, including strong opposition to slavery and to Britain’s opium trade. The aim of political economy was not the allocation of scarce resources, but the building of civilization and the continual improvement of the human condition. As John Quincy Adams explained in “Society and Civilization” [American Whig Review, July 1845]:
Unceasing labor is not suitable to the nature or condition of man. Hours of relaxation and repose are necessary to relieve the labors of every day…. all the powers of the body and all the faculties of the mind of every individual, from the cradle to the grave, should be exercised to the utmost extent of which they are capable, in improving the condition of his kind. The duties of man consist in alternate action and meditation, mutually aiding and relieving each other; and both, directed with undeviating aim, to the progressive improvement of himself and his fellow creatures. Heaven has given him in charge, to promote the happiness and well-being of himself, his wife, his children, his kindred, his neighbors, his fellow citizens, his country, and his kind; and the great problem of legislation is, so to organize the civil government of a community, that this gradation of duties, may be made to harmonize in all its parts—that in the operation of human institutions upon social action, self-love and social may be made the same.
Cory Doctorow [Locus Magazine, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 3-9-2022]
Use to discuss topic unrelated to recent posts. Nothing about Ukraine/Russia/Covid will be approved.
First: To my knowledge, sanctions have never lead to regime change. They didn’t in Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Libya, or anywhere else — not even North Korea and Cuba, which are still under some seriously savage sanctions.
Second: The targeted country’s leadership can still have pretty much whatever they want, it’s the population which suffers.
Third: While, in most ways, Russia is weaker than the USSR, it has a food surplus, while the Soviets always struggled. You can’t starve them out. It also has a fairly decent medical industry and access to Chinese and Indian medicines. Also, if sanctions continue, they will break our IP.
Fourth: The USSR didn’t have the largest industrial nation in the world as its ally (that would be China, not the US).
Fifth: China and Russia are synergistic. What China needs (food (desperately), oil, and minerals), Russia has. What Russia needs (consumer goods, medium to high-ish tech), China has. Plus, for China, having Russia as an ally mitigates the whole “US Navy cutting off supplies at the Straits of Hormuz” situation that every Chinese leader since Deng has stayed up nights worrying about.
Sixth: The logical response for Russia and China is to link their payments systems and to create an alternate monetary system. Because the West has repeatedly stolen billions of dollars from countries foolish enough to keep them on reserve in the West and then get on the West’s bad side, a lot of nations will move over to that system. Honestly, I’d trust China more than I would trust US not to steal my reserves, at this point.
Nobody seems to be thinking this forward. If sanctions don’t take out Russia and force it to collapse and/or have a government we like, what are we going to do next?
And as sanctions have never taken out a government, what’s our plan? Right now, it seems like the only alternative is to have a long guerilla war in Ukraine and bleed Russia dry. This strategy might work, though the human cost will be monstrous. (But then, why would the West care? We’re fighting to the last Ukrainian, after all.)
But if sanctions don’t work, and the guerilla trap doesn’t, what’s our Plan C? It’s particularly important because these sanctions are going to do a lot of damage to ourselves including, very likely, destroying the IP system that makes our rich so rich. (I, personally, look forward to Russia, and later China, breaking our IP system, but I don’t imagine high tech firms and/or Disney are as thrilled.)
Again, what’s our Plan C?