The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Trump Pulls Out of the Iran Deal

Yeah, so, it was a good deal and one of the very few real accomplishments of Obama’s foreign policy, possible only after Clinton was no longer Secretary of State.

The fear here is that this is part of a march to war against Iran, something many in the Republican party want, and something pushed hard by Israel and Saudi Arabia.

This was the danger of Republican win: Clinton was deranged about Syria, Trump is deranged about Iran. Both are allies of Russia, and Russia will not want to allow Iran to be destroyed by an American coalition. While the risk of a confrontation between the US and Russia is not as severe over Iran as it was over Syria, it is still very real.

Plus, of course, the Iranians don’t have nuclear weapons and just making enriched uranium didn’t mean they wanted nuclear weapons.

Fortunately, the Europeans are pushing back hard against this, and are willing to just cut their own deal. That may help somewhat.

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Further Reading: May 8, 2018


The True Panopticon Will Read Your Thoughts


  1. highrpm

    i’d tweak the statement, Trump is deranged about Iran. israel and saudi arabia are deranged about iran. trumpy is deranged about israel. so “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” i love convenient cognitive dissonances. when they help win “the status transaction.” that’s what i “liked” so much about my church groups. FOS. all of them. (who buys an automobile from a salesman who says, “you don’t need to take it for a test drive. just believe me.”)

  2. bruce wilder

    I do not see any factual basis for saying Iran is an “ally” of Russia. There is no formal security alliance that I know of — I welcome correction.

  3. Chiron

    My gut feeling is that no large scale war is going to happen, the most likely is US, israel and KSA propagandize inside Iran against the ruling regime but I think it won’t have much effect.

    The Sunni vs Shia conflict is good for both US and israel, it took attention from the Palestinian genocide and mad KSA and other Sunni gulf sheikdoms loyal subjects of the Empire. The Saudi crown prince mass privatization push (vision 2030) is about recognizing that KSA is just a American colony.

    Do you believe the Saudi police arrested a man for liking WWE?

  4. Josie

    So the illegal pallets of cash handed over means nothing?

  5. NR

    Josie: Fake news like that does mean nothing, yes.

  6. Webstir

    Money money money. Follow the money.
    On this topic, Caitlin Johnstone nails it with this quote “If you want to know what policies a politician will take seriously, ignore his campaign rhetoric and look at his largest sponsors.”

    Three names: Adelson, Singer, and Marcus:

    “The only thing worse than a knee-jerk liberal is a knee-pad conservative.”
    — Ed Abbey

  7. bruce wilder,

    Russia and Iran are allies in the sense that the US and Algeria are allies. Their interests broadly align, Russia sells Iran arms (currently around $1 bil / year) and they have joint intelligence / military operations (Russia flies sorties from Iranian bases, there’s a joint base in Baghdad, etc.) but it’s not like there’s a formal security agreement.

  8. Point being that Iran is useful for and serves a lot of constituencies within Russia, so that Russia has an incentive to prevent it from being attacked. That dynamic can cause quick-moving events to escalate out of control.

    Maybe Pakistan is a better comparison for the US than Algeria.

  9. Tom W Harris

    Ain’t no such thing as “Palestinian genocide.”

  10. jrkrideau

    @ bruce wilder

    I do not see any factual basis for saying Iran is an “ally” of Russia.

    De facto if not de jure.

    All of Russia’s offensive actions, particularly the aerial bombing has been against the opponents of the Syrian Gov’t. Russia does not distinguish between “moderate”, )for some value of moderate), jihadis and something like Al Quaeda or ISIS. They attack any opponent of the Syrian Gov’t.

    Russia is in Syria at the request of the Syrian Gov’t. Russia has, before its intervention, sold weapons, notably anti-aircraft batteries to Syria and may be sending more powerful anti-aircraft weapons. Russian troops work with the Syrian Arab Army, and seem to have integrated their air defence radar systems with Syria.

    If it looks like a duck ….

  11. Webstir

    In follow up to my previous comment:

    How revealing is it that none of the major media outlets have said one peep about the major donations made by the billionaire backers of the Likud party?

    Couldn’t have anything to do with the fact that the billionaires own the media, now could it?

  12. jrkrideau

    @ Chiron

    Do you believe the Saudi police arrested a man for liking WWE?

    I think you misread that:

    It is confirmed to us that Sheikh Badr bin Ali Al-Otaibi (بدر بن علي العتيبي) is arrested on 29/04/2018 because of his critique against Wrestling

    In the Saudi context, it is easy to believe that he was arrested. The giveaway is the title “Sheikh”. This, generally denotes a Sunni religious leader in the Kingdom. It is a good bet that Sheikh Badr bin Ali Al-Otaibi is a religious conservative/reactionary who is strongly opposed to many of Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s changes.

    Overt political opposition in Saudi Arabia can get you arrested very quickly.

  13. Tom

    Europe intends to keep the Deal alive but to do so, they need to practically make the Euro the World Reserve Currency and counter-sanction the US, or use shell companies that solely trade with Iran and are thus protected from US Sanctions.

    Germany has already told the US Ambassador to Germany that it does not tell German Businesses what nations they can or can’t trade with.

    Lets see if Europe sticks it to the US and Trump.

  14. Sid Finster

    By US sanctions on European businesses that do business with Iran, Europe will be dragged into de facto compliance with Trump Administration wishes.

    Much like the case in the latest few rounds of Russian sanctions, European leaders will grumble but do nothing.

    Perhaps the biggest loser in Europe is Macron, who was such a good and obedient little poodle in Syria, only to get publicly stiffed over Iran.

    Of course, hardliners in Iran and elsewhere will also benefit, as everyone has heard the message loud and clear – the United States cannot be trusted.

  15. Willy

    At least Iran has stuck to their end of the nuclear deal, though they keep messing about elsewhere. Mullahs will be mullahs. But breaking the deal is more about doing right by Israeli, KSA, and American Powers That Be, than it is the interests of any common folk. Same old theme different story. The human race needs more logic, less monkey brained alphas running everything. At least Bill Kristol may be allowed to come in from the wilderness now.

  16. Sid Finster

    How does Iran “keep messing about elsewhere” and how does that justify the United States’ bad faith over the JCPOA?

  17. Willy

    That Iran is an official “State Sponsor of Terrorism” (according to the US Department of State) is being given by many Iran haters as reason enough to break the deal. I don’t justify that one at all – just reiterate what my white evangelical relatives believe is the truth. I spend much time trying to figure out their descent into cult thinking, and what observers can do about it.

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