The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

The Egyptian Bottom Line

Let’s be real clear, people, what do you think will happen to the protesters if Mubarak’s regime (whether he’s specifically in charge or not) remains in power?

Can you say arrests and torture?

Sure you can.

Those are the stakes.  They can win, or they can get tortured.  When you enter the lion’s den, you better be willing to kill the damn thing, or at best, you’re getting mauled.

What should Obama do?  I don’t much care, honestly, so long as he doesn’t actually support the regime.

It’s really up to Egyptians. Either they have what it takes to finish the job (I’d suggest Mubarak needs a Ceauşescu moment), or they don’t. If they don’t, those who protested can expect to have a lot of intimate time with Mubarak’s thugs in which to mull over their inability to drive the spear home.

In between screams, of course.  Contrary to what you might think, I’ve found those lingering moments between screams is a good time to realize how you fucked up.

Update: Jesus wept, save me from Obama’s brand of “help”:

The Obama administration is discussing with Egyptian officials a proposal for President Hosni Mubarak to resign immediately, turning over power to a transitional government headed by Vice President Omar Suleiman with the support of the Egyptian military, administration officials and Arab diplomats said Thursday.

Oh yes, a “transitional” government with Mubarak’s chief torturer in charge.  Obama’s a lot like Bush in this respect, as in many others, you really, really, really don’t want his “help”.

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13 Comments

  1. bob mcmanus

    I. Don’t. Know.

    Maybe they needed to make a drive to the Palace a couple days ago, just to force the Army to decide to stay out of the way, on the way and at the Palace. Maybe they needed a few days in the Square, to build empathy with the Army. It is all about the Army. Mubi and Suli control the media and infrastructure, this is not about building popular support, unless they had the numbers or momentum to spread out in Cairo.

    I wish I knew what was happening in Suez and Port Said and elsewhere. If the Army has slapped down there…

    …but there is also a long game, maybe.

  2. Lex

    To be fair, “…with Mubarak’s chief torturer of foreigners in charge.”

    Indeed, he’s playing for the regime’s policies with a new face…and perhaps a little “more freedom” and “more hope”.

    If the Egyptian upper-classes can be divided into nationalists and neoliberals as some suggest, that could complicate matters. I assume Obama to be playing for the latter, but it seems that the army mostly aligns with the former.

  3. And let me another add another negative consequence to failure. If this revolution fails, then consider what will happen the next time this comes around—and it will come around again. It won’t be progressively-minded post-communal secular-nationalist students. All those people who wailed that this was not the time, that this was risking the coming-to-power of the dreaded “Islamists”, well: guess what! Next time around, it’s going to be just that much closer to the Iranian Revolution and that much farther away from Poland.

  4. “Oh yes, a “transitional” government with Mubarak’s chief torturer in charge. ”

    Well, we can’t do anything too drastic. Gradual, incremental, slow–that’s the Obama way.

  5. “Just one week after protests began in Egypt last Friday, scores of Egyptians plan to follow through with a “Day of Departure” on Friday, Feb. 4, 2011, Al Jazeera reported Thursday night.

    “The plan was originally to go to the presidential palace, approximately 10-15 kilometers away from Tahrir Square, but whether protesters follow through with that is uncertain, according to an Al Jazeera analyst.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/03/day-of-departure-feb-4_n_818398.html

    Well, this could be over real soon.

  6. Filler

    I’d suggest Mubarak needs a Ceauşescu moment

    To quote Robespierre:
    “Peoples do not judge in the same way as courts of law; they do not hand down sentences, they throw thunderbolts; they do not condemn kings, they drop them back into the void; and this justice is worth just as much as that of the courts.”

  7. par4

    O’s support for Suleiman is more reason to doubt that our government quit torturing after his election. It’s best to NOT believe anything he says.

  8. “Gentlemen, we must hang together, because if we do not, we will most assuredly hang separately.”

    I doubt very much they will march.

  9. stevo67

    After the Health Care reform sellout, I’ve adopted the same default position about Obama as I did with Bush – every time he speaks “on behalf of what’s best for the country”…I know he’s lying. Conversely, every time he criticizes, disparages, or belittles anyone critical of his policies, like Bush, that’s when he’s telling the truth.

  10. stevo67

    and Ian’s right about Mubarak torturing and disappearing Egyptian protesters should he or his handpicked successor win the day. It’s how tinpot Middle Eastern dictatorships roll.

  11. Stevo67, don’t you think that’s just a little simplistic? Sometimes these guys just lie to keep in practice, or for fun…

  12. jawbone

    Lex — If Suleiman was only in charge of torturing foreigners, who do you have down as being in charge of torturing Egyptians? And why wouldn’t they be coordinating, if indeed it is two different task masters?

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