TACO Trump Bombs Iran

If you’re getting a bit tired of Iran all the time, so am I, and we’ll see if we can slip in an article on something else.

In the meantime, Trump hit Iran’s nuclear enrichment site. As best I can tell, the attack was ineffective and did essentially no damage. Even if it had, Iran’s highly enriched, 60% stockpile, had already been moved. I’ve seen Israeli claims they know where, but there’s a good chance they’re lying and if the Iranians are smart, they’ve split it up and made sure that only a few people know where each package is, and no one knows where all the packages are, which doubles as “if you hit it, you lose your spy.”

Iran’s parliament has passed a motion asking for the Straits of Hormuz to be closed, it’s waiting for Khameini’s approval. Some ships appear to be already turning away. Parliament is also planning to vote to end Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Agency, which is exactly the right thing to do, since they’re both politicized and almost certainly spy for the Israelis and Americans. At least make your enemies work to get data on your secure nuclear sites and scientists.

Given the US couldn’t even stop the Houthi blockade, there is zero chance they can re-open the Straits of Hormuz with military force. It will stay close as long as Iran wants it to. Among other things, very few civilian shipping companies are going to take the chance. One missile or mine is all it takes.

It should go without saying that Trump’s strike is a direct violation of international law, which requires the approval of the U.N. Security Council to declare war. Honored more often in the breach, etc… but it’s yet another nail in the coffin of the idea that anyone should pay even the least attention to international law, since the countries which created it sure don’t.

Meanwhile the missiles keep raining down on Israel, and while firm data is hard to get, I’m almost certain the “Iron” Dome is not stopping most of them. Indeed the WSJ is reporting that Israel is interested in peace.

Iran shouldn’t give it to them without conditions. They have the upper hand. At the least, a withdrawal from Lebanon and an end to bombing there, and an end to the food and supplies blockade in Gaza, with immediate retaliation when they break the deal, as they always do.

I have gotten a lot of my predictions about the Middle East wrong since October 7th. There were two reasons: I didn’t realize how cripplingly cautious the “Resistance” (other than Hamas and Ansar-Allah) was, and I underestimated Mossad and American intelligence penetration of both, especially of Hezbollah. Fortunately Israel has been at pains to teach everyone a lesson, and a lot of the overly cautious leaders of both Hezbollah and Iran are now dead.

There were a number of reasons for the intelligence penetration. One was that India’s intelligence was working with Mossad, and had (has?) a huge network of spies in the Indian tech diaspora and guest workers. The second, is that Iran in particular has used Western tech, especially Western phones. (Admittedly everyone runs Android or IOS, so it’s hard to avoid.)

Israel’s Unit 8200, its signals intelligence (SIGINT) division, had been monitoring these targets for over a decade, compiling detailed itineraries—homes, workplaces, travel routes, and even bedroom locations. The precision of Operation Namiya (June 2024) relied on a triple-layered surveillance ecosystem: Apple Devices: Unencrypted iPhones provided real-time GPS tracking.

General Soleimani’s 2020 assassination had already proven this vulnerability, yet Iranian officials continued using them. Google/Microsoft Services: Gmail accounts, cloud backups, and Android devices leaked metadata, revealing behavioral patterns and social graphs.

Telecom Backdoors: Iran’s telecom infrastructure, built on Ericsson (which exited in 2012 under sanctions) and Nokia hardware, remained vulnerable. Huawei and ZTE briefly replaced Western vendors between 2012 and 2016, but by 2018, Iran resumed purchases from European suppliers—a fatal regression.

It’s clear that any country which doesn’t want similar issues has to rely on entirely non-Western tech from a trusted supplier and even then, as the Hezbollah pager attack (which is really what defeated Hezbollah, along with knowledge of their missile stockpile locations) you have to secure the entire supply chain, including delivery, then check like a paranoid, because you have enemies.

Best is to own your entire own tech stack, and a LOT of countries are going to be working feverishly towards it. Using Western tech this way is a great way to destroy markets for Western tech.

It should go without saying that every Western country is fatally compromised. The US knows everything they do. Even as a Canadian I would want to get to a domestic stack, and Europe are fools if they don’t, unless they intend to remain American satrapies for the rest of time.

Iran has finally thrown off its caution. I prey they don’t revert. They’re winning this war, and they shouldn’t let up until Israel is publicly humiliated and forced to actually stop their constant provocations and their genocide.

As for TACO Trump, he wants the war over, and his attack was a PR stunt so he could declare victory and flex America’s muscles worthlessly. I don’t think he has the guts for a real war, which is a good thing. (I could, of course, be wrong. The problem with Trump is that even he doesn’t know what he’s actually going to do most of the time. It is also amusing to watch Vance doing everything he can to distance himself from the attack, in preparation for running in 2028.)

Update: Iran says it has bombed Iraq, Qatar, Bahrein and Kuwait US military bases.

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