A little lesson in history is in order to understand why Israel remains dominant in the Middle East and continues to wage war against just about everyone. To understand better Israel’s strategic dilemma we have to look back at the Crusades.
The First Crusade established the Kingdom of Jerusalem in 1099. But, before the Kingdom of Jerusalem could be established invasion routes from the north had to be secured, which occurred in 1098 when the Crusaders conquered Antioch, modern Antakya in Turkey. Second, its flank had to be secured, which is what Baldwin of Boulogne did in 1098 by capturing Edessa, modern day Şanliurfa in southeastern Turkey. Baldwin then created the County of Edessa.
Between 1099 and 1144 the Kingdom of Jerusalem fought against the Fatimids of Egypt, defeating them several times. The kingdom then attacked Damascus several times; winning some fights and losing others. The Crusaders attacked and captured Tyre, Tripoli, Acre and Beirut. They only held Beirut for a time.
The Byzantines were also active in keeping the Arab and Seljuk princedoms in the region divided. They won more battles than they lost. The Byzantine strategic goal was the reconquest of Anatolia. They had some success under Alexis Comnenos, but when he died so did his genius. That said, for most of fifty years Crusader Jerusalem was safe. It would take two to three thousand words to narrate this all comprehensively so I’ve oversimplified. Please be sympathetic.
One might get the impression that with the Byzatines knocking the Seljuks about in Anatolia, keeping them on their back heels and the Crusader States growing steadily and beating Fatimid Egypt several times that victory seemed assured. But even before the first Crusaders captured Jerusalem time was not on their side.
In 1094 the governor of Seljuk Aleppo, Aq Sunqur al-Hajib, was beheaded on accusations of treason by the Seljuk emir of Damascus, Tutush I. Aq Sunqur al-Hajib’s son, Imad al-din Zengi escaped to Mosul and was raised by its governor. As he matured he grew into a fierce warrior, becoming a scourge upon the Crusader states; one they were unable to answer. As the years passed Zengi fought, relentlessly. After many losses but more victories Zengi, in 1144, captured the Country of Edessa, dealing a crippling blow to the Crusader States. This blow necessitated the Second Crusade. For the next quarter century the Kingdom of Jerusalem muddled through, fending off most challenges. But the loss of Edessa caused a persistent drain on the kingdom’s power.
In the year 1171 Saladin came to power in Egypt, a development that would rapidly end the Kingdom of Jerusalem’s decades long containment of Fatimid power. Saladin’s life goal was the destruction of the Kingdom of Jerusalem. With Egypt under his complete control, Saladin immediately inaugurated the first part of his great project: unifying the divided states surrounding the Kingdom of Jerusalem.
It’s Ian’s annual fundraiser. This allows us to cover the changeover of hegemony from America to China, environmental collapse, internal US fascism, what a better society would look like, Gaza, AI, the coming stock market crash and various other issues. You can Subscribe or Donate here or contact Ian at ian-at-fdl-at-gmail-dot-com if you need another way to donate (mail, usually. A lot of cash apps don’t work in Canada.)
Saladin was largely successful in unifying the region, notwithstanding his loss to King Baldwin IV in 1177. The Leper King, Baldwin IV, husbanded a large force and defeated Saladin at the Battle of Montgisard on November 25, 1177. Saladin had the good fortune of defenses in depth and quickly rebuilt his nearly eradicated forces quickly as he ruled both Syria and Egypt.
Catastrophe struck the Kingdom of Jerusalem when King Baldwin IV died in August of 1186. This set off a series of political machinations in Jerusalem wherein ultimate power was gained by a coterie of bigoted incompetents. In 1187 they marched their army towards the Sea of Galilee to challenge Saladin. At the Horns of Hattin, where there was no water, the heavily armored Crusaders quickly grew parched and exhausted. Saladin defeated them easily. The way to Jerusalem was now open. Saladin was ultimately successful in its conquest and by late 1188 the entire Kingdom of Jerusalem was under Saladin’s control.
The point of this brief history is this: the only way the Israelis can be defeated is exactly how the Crusaders were defeated. A coaliton of Arab and Islamic states must unify in common action against Israel.
On the other hand, all Israel must do to exist is maintain a divided region. This has been Israel’s grand strategy since its inception and remains so today, even though Netanyahu is making a mess of it by attacking everyone, everywhere, committing genocide in Gaza while expecting unconditional US support of its every action. A tall order at a time when the US public has begun seriously questioning continued support of Israel, especially in the face of the genocide in Gaza.
So, can the states of the region find common cause? Well, Turkey’s president Erdoğan is sitting on the fence, but could make life very difficult for Israel by simply shutting of its energy supplies, which come from the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. Never mind the size and technological sophistication of its armed forces, that dwarf anything Israel has.
Turkey’s indecision notwithstanding, signs of potential unified effort by several Islamic states are beginning. First, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense pact that includes a Pakistani nuclear umbrella. Second, “Egypt’s Sisi has called Israel the “enemy’ and is renewing ties with its neighbors,” says Ted Snider at Responsible Statecraft. In a September speech at the Emergency Arab-Islamic Summit in Qatar Sisi gave an unprecedented speech. His three main points were that Israel is the enemy. He then warned the Israelis that there would be no new diplomatic progress in regards to the Abraham Accords, adding that Israeli actions could possibly violate the 1979 Egypt-Israeli Peace Treaty. But the really shocking statement came, as Ted Snider recounts, when Sisi said, “it has become imperative for us to establish an Arab-Islamic mechanism for coordination and cooperation to enable us all to confront the major security, political, and economic challenges surrounding us.” Adding to this, “[that] the geography of any Arab country extends from the Ocean to the Gulf and its umbrella is wide enough for all Islamic and peace-loving countries.”
A second round of war with Iran might trigger a more formal defensive alliance structure like that between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. One that would be more comprehensively Islamic, as Iranians are not Arabs, but Persians. The Turks might buy into it as well. I’ll explore what a potential coaliton might look like in a subsequent post. But for now, the ultimate consquences of such an event are not heartening.
The wild card happens when Israel stares down total defeat. At this point Israel’s nuclear ambiguity will be clarified, necessity being the mother of all forced decisions. If Israel faces certain destruction what will it do? Lash out and let the nukes fly? Or accept defeat in the hopes of preserving something? In our complex adaptive global society nothing is inevitable. However, the day is coming when Israel will face a hostile, well armed and coordinated Arab-Islamic coaliton. The results are unforseeable, but more than likely devastating.
It’s Our Annual Fundraiser. If you read us a lot, please Subscribe or Donate.
Feral Finster
Don;t kid yourself. Israel and Saudi Arabia are already de facto allies, and Pakistan is a US puppet.
bruce wilder
You didn’t mention Russia, which has been an Israeli ally, but has been given reasons.
ella
I’d like to use this part of your article “…political machinations in
JerusalemWashington wherein ultimate power was gained by a coterie of bigoted incompetents. …” when discussing the USAian empire, if you permit. It’s perfect for many occasions.Sean Paul Kelley
@ella: you have my explicit permission to use it any time and in any place that you desire.
Jan Wiklund
I think I began to wonder as early as the 90s why Israel is so foolhardy and doesn’t try to come to terms. Soner or later, I pondered, the Americans would find it too expensive to hold them under their arms, and then their intransigency will come back upon them. Seems that we are almost there – but not quite.
Feral Finster
I would hardly call Russia an “Israeli ally” (tell me, how many weapons does Israel source from Russia, how much aid does Israel get from Russia, can Israel rely on Russia to strongarm the UN into submission?)
That said, Russia is not nearly as anti-Israel as we might wish.
Sam
What role do you see China playing in all this?
Nat Wilson Turner
Good piece. I truly dread the Samson option which would likely lead to a massive multi-country nuclear exchange and all that entails.
I have zero confidence in any of the Arab countries (besides Yemen), no confidence in Erdogan, and fear the Iranian leadership is far far too cautious and will fail to be decisive when the time comes.
Curious to see if Hezbollah is finished or not.
ibaien
while i think a wet firecracker war between israel and iran would be very sad for everyone downwind of the fallout, it might serve as a suitable reminder for those of us not alive for hiroshima and nagasaki that nukes are the devil’s work and that rabid dog nations shouldn’t be allowed to the international table. anything less and we’ll still be doing this whole song and dance in 50, 100, 200 years…
Mark Level
Thank you, Finster for both comments. I mostly agree the Saudis are corrupt filth (QED), Erdogan the same. I have heard tell that Sisi in Egypt knows that if he doesn’t do “something” (yes, a wide range of options) there will be a military coup and his days of glory (sic) crushing the population will be over, and/or the Zionist Entity will again grab at large areas of the Sinai and other Egyptian territory. If there is a weak link that might defy the universal Arab (apart from Yemen, obviously) obsequiousness toward the Anglo-American-French-Deutsche Empire, it could be a desperate move from Egypt.
PS– very hard to get on the site recently, even when I try a different browser, which used to work. DOS attacks?
mago
I echo Nat Wilson Turner and Feral Finster’s thoughts. Too much rapacious self centered greed among the ME leadership to unite and squash rabid dog Israel who they also rightfully fear would go nuclear.
Another aspect missing here is the view among some elite players that Palestinians are inferior and dispensable.
Gotta keep the wheels greased, go along to get along, keep those cover your ass maneuvers in motion.
Purple Library Guy
Pakistan WAS a US puppet . . . pretty much . . . but is far less so at this point. They trade with China a lot, they buy arms from China, and their main fear is India, with whom the US is friendly but China is tense. So they see China as a counterweight to India. They still make soothing noises to the US, but if they had to choose between the US and China, I think they’d pick China.
As to what China is doing in the Middle East . . . they’re building Belts and Roads. They want increased trade, everyone trading with China and with each other. Everyone being at each other’s throats is bad for business, so when given the chance they’ll broker rapprochement (as they’ve done somewhat with Saudi Arabia and Iran). But they won’t stick their noses too far in because they probably think better to be sitting with the popcorn while the US makes the mistakes.
Ian Welsh
Mark,
yes, for a couple years now there have been significant DOS attacks on the site, though I’m damned if I know why. Haven’t found a solution. Depending on how much we raise in this fundraiser, I’m thinking of hiring a Dev to look into it and a few other issues that are beyond my technical skill.
Carborundum
Never say never in high-dynamic periods, but I would have to see a lot of things shift before I would interpret the Pakistani-Saudi agreement as an indicator of first steps in a broader alliance incorporating Iran and the Turks. It’s quite readily understandable as a means of enhancing deterrence against Iran and hedging against other alliance structures that look to be budding (e.g., recent Egyptian – Turkish exercises).
Feral Finster
@Purple Library Guy:
Pakistan always has done a lot of business with China. You may note that Pakistan in recent weeks has essentially reaffirmed its loyalty to the United States.
India is hardly seen as “friendly” to the United States, but that would likely change, were Trump to actually try some diplomacy instead of strongarm tactics.
Feral Finster
@Mark Level: thank you for the kind words. The idea that anyone in Egypt would defy the Americans is wishful thinking.
The United States has numerous points of leverage over the current Egyptian regime, the Egyptian economy, and the Egyptian military.
KT Chong
The Value Trap and Blind Spot: How America Is Losing the Global AI War Due to Israel and the Gaza Genocide
It’s ironic — the U.S. government demands that its AI systems reflect and promote “American values,” yet those same values are increasingly out of sync with the values of the Global South. For much of the Global South, the poison pill in American AI models is the “American values” on Israel and the Gaza genocide. To much of the Islamic world and beyond, U.S. AI systems echo Washington’s pro-Israel bias. The result? A growing perception that American AI is merely a propaganda tool for America and Israel.
The Global South is now pivoting toward Chinese AI. Malaysia and Indonesia are two recent examples I read (which prompted me to look more closely into AI trends and adoption across the Global South). Their leaders aren’t just making a technical choice — it’s a political and cultural one. They see Chinese AI as “value-neutral” and “respectful of another nation’s sovereignty and values.” China offers advanced tools without American pro-Israel propaganda embedded in the code. For governments wary of digital colonialism, that’s a compelling reason to favor Chinese over American AI.
What is quietly happening — and what Washington has not yet fully realized — is the formation of an AI bloc in the Global South: the rejection of American “values-aligned” AI in favor of Chinese AI that respects their sovereignty and values. The Gaza Genocide is accelerating the split. In this technological cold war between the US and China, the side that locks in most of the world into its AI ecosystem will ultimately prevail — and based on the current trajectory of global adoption, China will win the AI war when the majority or all of the Global South has adopted Chinese AI and rejected American AI.
By making its AI pro-Israel, America has rendered it globally unpalatable. It might become strategic suicide in the end.