I’ve mentioned before the possibility of military defeat, but there’s a better way.
Simply have OPEC do another oil embargo to the West and its enablers until the situation is resolved, with a two-state or one state solution and significant restitution. Yeah, the US and Canada produce a surplus, but it’s not enough of a surplus to support all their allies.
And if all OPEC members don’t agree, it really doesn’t matter. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and the Gulf States are enough. Since Russia’s already already under various sanctions…
That would, of course, require Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States to do more than cry crocodile tears about the Palestinians, and actually do something, which is unlikely. But it’s worth remembering that it is possible and putting it on the table.
Besides, the lion should show its teeth occasionally anyway.
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Carborundum
An embargo would pre-suppose that anyone in OPEC / OPEC+ wants the conflict to stop. They don’t. Far too useful to have Western powers pre-occupied with the Middle East while competitors run the board elsewhere in the world. Every speck of material and diplomatic capital we expend chasing our collective tails in the pursuit of “Middle Eastern peace in our time” is capital not expended on projects far more important to coming decades.
Ian Welsh
Yeah, which is what I referring to with “That would, of course, require Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States to do more than cry crocodile tears about the Palestinians, and actually do something, which is unlikely.”
S
An embargo would be extremely painful for the West since US SPR is low and working class is tired of inflation.
It would definitely humble an entire generation of entitled war mongers, and force them to realise that the world is now multi-polar and they no longer hold all the cards.
Feral Finster
That fear is basically why Biden recently dropped sanctions on Venezuelan oil in exchange for some promises regarding elections.
Willy
People don’t force the obvious solution. They’d rather bitch about the problem instead.
I’ve seen videos of Arabic protesters interviewed. All of them are bitching about an Israeli jihad against innocent Gazans. None of them are demanding their own governments push for obvious best-fit solutions.
Personally, I think they’re being manipulated, by their own governments. It’s good to be the king. And one way to keep on being kings is to keep everybody else bitching about other people’s problems (but never the kings of course).
Daniel Lynch
Sort of agree. The boycott would not have to last long. One month might suffice, because Western markets are heavily financialized and leveraged, so the initial shock alone might crash the markets and induce a recession.
However, oil sales are contracted out months in advance, so from a business perspective, it’s not good to break those contracts. Lawyer Putin is a stickler for honoring legal agreements. At best, he could stop issuing more contracts, but that might take months to impact deliveries.
Rather than a boycott, a more practical tactic would be to jack up the price of future contracts to say, $200 / barrel. That too, would crash Western markets, without having to actually break existing contracts.
I can’t speak for the Arab neighbors, but I think Hamas screwed up big time by killing civilians in its Oct 7 attack. Surely Hamas coordinated the Oct 7 attack with Hezbollah and Iran, and had some sort of agreement that Hezbollah and Iran would have Hamas’s back, but I’m guessing the agreement fell apart because Hezbollah and Iran did not want to be associated with the murder of civilians.
Russia’s population is divided on Israel so Putin has no mandate to meddle in Israel’s affairs. Further, it is in Russia’s best interest to allow its adversary to get involved in an unpopular and unwinnable Mid East conflict while Russia sits on the sidelines and wins goodwill by proposing a ceasefire and proposing a Palestinian state. The Mid East conflict is a gift to Russia.
StewartM
S
It would definitely humble an entire generation of entitled war mongers, and force them to realise that the world is now multi-polar and they no longer hold all the cards.
I’d say it’s equally likely to propel more Middle East “liberations” to (as Trump says to cheers) “just take their oil”.
You’re giving our elite class more credit for smarts than they actually possess. Sure, 40-plus years of neoliberal horse hockey economics has gutted the US’s capacity to do anything real, including fight wars, but these clowns who have been in-charge of liquidating real wealth in order to create paper wealth are clueless to this. The only thing that might open their eyes is actual, undeniable, military defeat.
BC Nurse Prof
Michael Hudson explains:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/10/russia-china-unite-against-us-empire.html
VietnamVet
There are too many similarities between Israel and the USA. Both are corporate states that to maintain the warmonger profiteering have divided and rule roughshod over it citizens by providing political power to minority right wing religious fanatics to keep the military money flowing. Both states rely on corporate propaganda to try to keep a lid on the boiling pot as the frogs simmer.
WWIII and a Muslim Christian Holy War are underway unacknowledged. China and Russia are breaking away from the West. The only way to pull back from the nuclear brink is to restore secular democracy and, once again, have an informed and educated public, the rule of law applied equal to all, and strong borders guarded by a citizen militia that are not left unprotected.
North America and Europe must learn to live within its means. Share resources and labor for the public good.
UserFriendlyyy
That assumes the US gives a fuck about literally anyone besides israel. And I mean exclusively Israel, they don’t care at all about any of us who live here. Israel could nuke chicago and not one single member of congress would so much as ask for an apology.
Olivier
@Ian “Simply have OPEC do another oil embargo to the West”! Reportedly Qatar has threatened Olaf Scholz to do exactly that (with LNG). Instead the Germans are lecturing Qatar about its alleged support for Hamas. They really have an (economic) death wish.