#Soroka Hospital is located between two major Israeli military sites: the IDF’s main intelligence headquarters and a central command facility, both of which are situated in the Gav-Yam Technology Park. These installations reportedly serve as critical hubs for Israel’s cyber operations, digital command systems, and military intelligence infrastructure (including IDF C4I and C4ISR systems). While the hospital sustained shockwave damage from nearby blasts, it was not directly hit, Iranian reports emphasize.
Sororka is the primary hospital for military casualties, I understand, but it wasn’t targeted. It got hit in the blast.
Now, of course, Israel complaining about a hospital attack is ludicrous. Wikipedia has a list of Israeli attacks on Gaza hospitals. There are dozens.
My post on the initial attack on Iran noted how serious Mossad penetration was. What’s interesting about Iran’s missile attacks is that they seem to be prioritizing intelligence sites even more than strict military ones. They know their weakness and are working on it.
Iran has been mainly going after Israeli intelligence in the last couple of days: Mossad and 8200 bases throughout the country, from north through center to south. This seems to be their main focus now. I have no way to assess hits and damages, but these are large, extremely expensive, highly prized targets. They know where everything is – and if you remember the Hezbollah drone videos from a year ago, you can guess how accurate their information is.
And they have high-resolution satellites in space – this is Israel’s first war against an enemy with such capabilities. Israel did not report a single IDF casualty since this war began, but tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians work in those places, and in the other big bases that have been attacked.
Meanwhile, estimates are that Israel has less than two weeks left of interceptor missiles. If the US sends everything it can spare, well, that’s maybe two more weeks.
This is entirely a race between Israel’s ability to destroy missile launchers with its aircraft, and Iran’s ability to keep launching missiles. The math is that simple. As an aside, Iran should be priority targeting Israeli air fields alongside air defense.
And Iran has only begun to use its better missiles.
12 interceptors vs 1 Fattah-1 pic.twitter.com/rUezFPTBGm
— Dr.Snekotron (@snekotron) June 18, 2025
I don’t know how the math is working. Israel is sending its cops after Israelis posting video or pictures of attacks. Iran has shut down most outgoing internet. This makes sense for both sides, no reason to let enemies know how successful their attacks are.
Iran has also told its citizens to get rid of WhatsApp and Instagram, as both are easily hacked. Going forward I’d suggest that all countries need their own OS and their own social networks, hosted in their own countries, at a minimum. China has this. Android and IOS are extremely vulnerable, no matter what apps you’re using. As I’ve been writing for years, carrying a cell phone is carrying a bug, tracking device and surveillance camera with you at all times. (The best OS for privacy right now appears to be Graphene, which only runs on the most recent Google Pixel phones, I believe.)
As you’ve probably heard, the US is moving three aircraft carrier groups to the Middle East. It’s not clear if the US will join the war. In fact I doubt anyone knows if it will. Even Trump couldn’t tell you, because he changes his mind so often.
Absent the US getting involved, I put the odds in Iran’s favor, but it’s not a strong bet. It’s simply too hard to tell the actual situation. Some claim Israel has complete air dominance over Iran, others say that’s not true, and I don’t know. Likewise, lots of claims are made about how many launchers have been destroyed, but there’s no reason to believe either side on this. Attack volumes from Iran are way down, but is that because of strategy or capability? If it’s capability, they’re sunk. If its strategy, maybe not. It’s quite conceivable they’re holding back a lot as they degrade AD and force the Israelis to run thru their AD missiles.
Do bear in mind that Iran has the simplest advantage: it’s much larger than Israel and has a much larger population and it is an industrial state which has the ability to build its own weapons. China is not going to intervene militarily, but I’m sure they’ll sell Iran as much cheap materials it needs to build more missiles and drones, and China has the cheapest and most extensive supply network for both.
The elephant in the room, of course, is that if Israel decides it is losing, it does have nukes and if any country in the world other than US is psychotic enough to use nuclear weapons, it’s Israel.
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Oakchair
“Israel decides it is losing, it does have nukes”
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This gives some credence to the position that Iran is holding back for strategic purposes instead of a lack of capability. I’m weary of this position because it aligns with what I want to be true.
The Nixon video that made the rounds expressed the view that it’s no question that Israel would use nukes. When it’s you on the block that’s a fine line to walk.
I have to wonder if Israeli propaganda about Iran “bombing hospitals” and so on actually accomplishes anything beneficial anymore. Who are they convincing that isn’t a die hard believer? There comes a point where you’ve lost the narrative so much that you’re attempts to re-gain control are snarked at even by those on your side.
different clue
The people at Turcopolier would have had interesting things to say about this. But I, like others, am finding the Turcopolier blog officially unavailable, blocked or whatever we want to call it.
Here is an article about how Hegseth and Gabbard have been frozen out of the discussion circle about attack-Iran yes or no. I imagine Hegseth ( the DUI hire) is frozen out because he is such a total embarrassment. His job is to White Powerize the Armed Forces into a White Power MAGA force for domestic use against America. That’s why one of his very first acts was to fire the 16 top JAG officers. And he will be kept on for that job.
Gabbard is not pro-war enough, as shown by a video she apparently made which upset God-Emperor Trump. She has discovered along with everyone else who gets involved with Trump that if you step in the dogtrump, you get dogtrump on your shoes.
The only useful thing she could do now is to resign ugly to cause maximum embarrassment and slowdown to Trump. But she won’t do it because she still cherishes visions of a political future. What she will learn is that continuing to walk around in the dogtrump will terminate the political future she hoped to have. No one will want her tracking dogtrump into their living rooms.
Here is the link to the article titled: Tulsi Gabbard AND Pete Hegseth Are Both Being Cut Out of Key Decisions by Trump: Reports
https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/tulsi-gabbard-and-pete-hegseth-are-both-being-cut-out-of-key-decisions-by-trump-reports/
Mark Level
Very useful update as usual, Ian. Just this morning I saw Max of the Grayzone interviewing a woman Academic from Tehran University, excellent English, and she was quite clear about the lack of Izzy control of air space, at least in Tehran. She thought most of the first wave hits were from stuff snuck into the country as occurred elsewhere. She added that they attack from Iraq with drones, & also planes just on the borders of Iraqi airspace or outside it. Prof. Mirandi on Glenn Diesen’s programs said pretty much the same thing.
She added that the terrorists who were planting car bombs or otherwise supporting Israel are being swept up, many are Afghan refugees who were admitted to Iran after the US destroyed their country. Desperate and vulnerable people, obviously.
Just a quick question to close. Once again the embedded clips cannot be accessed. Are others experience this too? This must be the Tech Oligarchs’ doing. Please update if able, Ian or others. I think these clowns are being too obvious in blocking basic info, any of us with energy can find it elsewhere. Yet the rest of the world is “authoritarian”, amrite?
Oakchair
The only useful thing (Gabbard) could do now is to resign…. cause maximum embarrassment and slowdown to Trump.
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How is the most anti-war cabinet official in 25 years resigning useful? How does that slow down the war mongering? Why should anyone care –outside of the reality TV entertainment value– about “embarrassment” for Trump?
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But (Gabbard won’t resign) because she still cherishes visions of a political future.
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Whereas for some the purpose of politics is to gain power (IE become a Cabinet official) in order to do things. For others the purpose is to have a “political future”. How did you reach the conclusion that Gabbard is amongst the later group?
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Tulsi Gabbard AND Pete Hegseth Are Both Being Cut Out of Key Decisions by Trump:
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Do you see the contradiction of the above headline with the previous statement that Gabbard should resign?
Feral Finster
Surely by now you should know that it doesn’t matter what Iran (or any enemy of the Empire) does, they will be ritually blamed.
Similarly, it doesn’t matter what the Empire or its pets do, they will always be held blameless. Netanyahu could personally toss Palestinian toddlers alive and screaming on Israeli State TV into piranha tanks, and world leaders would bleat in unison that “Israel Has The Right To Defend Itself!” and besides, it didn’t , those toddlers also were Hamas and pointing out that the emperor is buck-ass naked makes you an anti-semite.
“For my friends, everything! For my enemies, the law!”
Feral Finster
@Oakchair: of course Israel has nukes.
Iran, however, has proven dithering and indecisive, starting with the fact that they did NOT inf act get The Bomb back in the 1980s, when the Israelis first started to scream about Iran being weeks away from getting it.
If Iran does not use its capabilities now, it will lose them.
cc
This piece from nakedcapitalism adds further weight to warranted skepticism over Israel’s claims of air superiority over Iran. It excerpts from Simplicius, Professor Marandi, and John Helmer:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/06/trump-reportedly-greenlights-plan-for-us-attack-on-iran-without-congressional-approval.html
And a 20-min interview with Col. Douglas Macgregor:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pO0-49_oCk
Claims of the hospital being targeted or Israel having air superiority are just the latest in the never-ending repeating pattern of lies from Israel, yet our captured media obediently propagate them as usual.
While it doesn’t have air superiority over Iran, Israel does have complete airwave superiority over the West …
p.s. By the way, I hope everyone will remind themselves to stop reinforcing the key Zionist propaganda brainwashing about “Israel’s right to defend itself”: It’s embedded right into the name “IDF” for constant self-delivered repetition-based subconscious reinforcement.
Why not just write “Israel’s military” instead of carrying water for their propaganda by writing “IDF”? (Or other alternatives are “IOF” or “IGF”.)
That brainwashing is so strong that Carney and the G7 just disgustingly affirmed “Israel’s right to defend itself” as the murderous, genocidal regime extends its assassination and killing spree using its terrorist sleeper cells in Iran, Lebanon (cell phones walkie-talkies attack), Syria/Iraq (AQ/ISIS/Jolani/HTS), etc.
A key objective of that Israeli propaganda line is so that our media, our politicians, and the public never stop to consider the Palestinians’ right to defend themselves or the Iranians’ right to defend themselves.
Carborundum
C4i is headquartered in Beersheba – that’s distinct from Aman, which is headquartered up North at the location of the earlier attacks I spoke of (across the highway from Mossad / Unit 8200).
As to the map, I’m not sure whoever made that sketch map has ever seen Beersheba. Immediately N of the hospital is Ben Gurion University of the Negev. The technology park is almost a mile ENE of where it is indicated on the map, far side of the indicated railway stop (it’s honestly tough to be sure because the map is so bad – for example, 406 and Rager Blvd are the same road – and are W of the hospital…).
If I had to guess, I’d say they were going after Hatzerim, which is something like 10-15 clicks down-range. Any IRGC guys who have made it to this point in the conflict have learned not to use pre-surveyed launch locations. Short or long on-azimuth falls into the category of “close enough for government work”.
Carborundum
The really significant thing that I haven’t seen people think much about yet is the next phase – sure, MRBM capability *may* be way down. Assuming that’s true, the key analytical issue may switch to shorter range systems. With these, it’s a much different kettle of fish. Stockpiles and launch platforms are best described as “really a lot” (as in, I don’t know that we can even count them), the range of area targets they can hold at threat is broad and of global strategic significance, and there actually are pretty good indications that some systems have precision terminal guidance.
Mark Level
A DC character covers today Tulsi’s supposed opposition to WW III. The Due Dissidence Duo also covered this today, along with Tucker Carlson humiliating the skeezy “feline” Ted Cruz for calling him “obsessed with Israel” and strongly implying he’s an anti-Semite for questioning anything Israel does.
I thought the Tulsi video on Hiroshima and how much bigger the Nukular (to use a Bush Jr. term) bombs are today was pretty effective on some levels, of course she refused to mention even in passing what nation bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Here’s the thing though.
Tulsi worked in a Psy-op position, overtly, for the MIC. She has changed her opinions 180 degrees repeatedly on issues sometimes in less than a year or two. And she’s not resigning.
She said 3 months before Trump dismissed her as worthless, “I don’t believe what she says,” the consensus of the entire NatSec team, that Iran doesn’t want and isn’t pursuing Nuclear weapons, a lie Netanyahu first threw out 41 years ago!!! “They’re a month away!! They’re days away!” Zionist crying Wolf non-stop . . .
I’ll differ with Oakchair strongly this time. Tulsi is not “the most anti-war” she is there to confuse and distract, and has zero actual intellectual or moral stands or principles.
And once upon a time if somebody at that level of power was disgraced by Dear Leader they would’ve resigned on principle, something Ms. Tulsi utterly lacks. Glad she dropped the Hindutva exterminate all the gays stuff she was spewing in her early career, but I have as much respect or faith in her as I do for Alex Jones, “the Mooch” (Scaramucci), Anthony Weiner or George Santos, “I’m Jew–issssh!”
It’s just Spectacle and distraction and she’s reading from the script she was given. If she really pissed Trump off when this all goes South she won’t be allowed into the survival bunker. She knows better.
Carborundum
Now I figured it out. C4i is about a mile away from the hospital, next to the tech park *and* on-azimuth with the hospital. The hit wasn’t just blast damage – it hit the east side roof of the structure at 31° 15.466’N 34° 48.064’E as seen in the image in this article:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-hospital-had-taken-patients-underground-hours-before-missile-hit-2025-06-19/
That makes a lot more sense than Hatzorim. If the people doing their various bits of propaganda had done their jobs *properly* this would have been a lot more intelligible. Given that C4i has a cyber-security mandate, it totally makes sense to go after them given where Iran is (i.e., locking down external Internet comms).
Oakchair
Tulsi is not “the most anti-war” (cabinet member in 25 years)
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To be honest the bar is so low I’m not even sure what the distinction would be.
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she is there to confuse and distract, and has zero actual intellectual or moral stands or principles.
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Supposing she is controlled opposition she would be there to do a lot worse than confuse and distract.
Along the lines of what happened to the Democratic establishment under Obama.
Regardless of Gabbard’s actual motives and future actions what propelled her on the national stage was her public opposition to wars.