The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

More empires have fallen because of reckless finances than invasion

Eric Margolis nails it as usual:

Obama’s total military budget is nearly $1 trillion. This includes Pentagon spending of $880 billion. Add secret black programs (about $70 billion); military aid to foreign nations like Egypt, Israel and Pakistan; 225,000 military “contractors” (mercenaries and workers); and veterans’ costs. Add $75 billion (nearly four times Canada’s total defence budget) for 16 intelligence agencies with 200,000 employees…

…The Afghanistan and Iraq wars ($1 trillion so far), will cost $200-250 billion more this year, including hidden and indirect expenses. Obama’s Afghan “surge” of 30,000 new troops will cost an additional $33 billion — more than Germany’s total defence budget.

No wonder U.S. defence stocks rose after Peace Laureate Obama’s “austerity” budget….

…Military and intelligence spending relentlessly increase as unemployment heads over 10% and the economy bleeds red ink. America has become the Sick Man of the Western Hemisphere, an economic cripple like the defunct Ottoman Empire.

The Pentagon now accounts for half of total world military spending. Add America’s rich NATO allies and Japan, and the figure reaches 75%….

…There are 750 U.S. military bases in 50 nations and 255,000 service members stationed abroad, 116,000 in Europe, nearly 100,000 in Japan and South Korea.

Military spending gobbles up 19% of federal spending and at least 44% of tax revenues. During the Bush administration, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars — funded by borrowing — cost each American family more than $25,000.

Like Bush, Obama is paying for America’s wars through supplemental authorizations ­— putting them on the nation’s already maxed-out credit card. Future generations will be stuck with the bill.

Margolis is right.  This is how Empires die. It’s not precisely the finances that matter, but what they represent, the gutting of real economic activity and growth for activities which return no real growth or strength.  To the military I would add at least three quarters of all financial activity in the US.

A sane policy would be to reduce the US military budget by a half, slash the “intelligence” budget by three quarters (they produce virtually no actionable intelligence not available through public sources), break up the banks and spend money on refitting every building in America, in making education work again, in high speed trains and so on.

But that’s not going to happen.

So yes, Margolis is right, the US is in terminal decline.

And no, it isn’t going to stop till the US crashes out.

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28 Comments

  1. Lex

    Yeah, the Margolis piece was a sobering way to spend first thing Monday morning. I’m at a loss for why so many of my compatriots fall to see the writing on the wall. I understand that their education may have been less than stellar, particularly in history and developing critical thinking ability. I understand that three generations have now grown up with the idea of existential threat (though none of the threats these generations have faced have been truly existential and have been more about MIC fear mongering than anything else). I understand that they’ve been taught that the military can do no wrong and it also seems that they’ve decided that we don’t actually pay for the military, that it isn’t part of “big government”.

    None of that matters because it doesn’t change reality. The empire we’ve never admitted to is crumbling around us, and there is no amount of American exceptionalism that will save it from the fate of every other empire in history.

    Strange how those who profess to love America the most are so willing to destroy her. Strange.

  2. The Unadmitted Empire is the most serious problem. I got into an argument recently on a certain centre-right web (non-Tea Party, guess who) site about whether the USA is an empire, and the wall of rationalization and nitpicking on the definition of empire is immense.

    “Superpower! Republic! Not empire! Generous!…”

  3. Formerly T-Bear

    Paul Kennedy’s “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers – Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000” (Random House – BoMC) speaks exactly to this point, the two great tests that challenge the longevity of every major power, the balancing of actual defense requirements with the means to maintain the defense; or if it can maintain the technologic and economic base of its power in the face of shifting economic production patterns. Imperial Habsburgian Spain failed as well as Imperial British failure both the result of economic shifts of production. The Spanish faced the beginnings of industrial production challenges from north-western europe, writing the final chapter to feudal era economics; the British faced the financial hegemony of the industrialized “colonies” of the New World, finalizing the chapter of imperial mercantilism. The passing of Imperial “American” will mark the end of the effective political state and the beginnings of absolutist corporate economic rule of subjugated political states through economic manipulation.

  4. Celsius 233

    “But that’s not going to happen.

    So yes, Margolis is right, the US is in terminal decline.

    And no, it isn’t going to stop till the US crashes out.”
    ===================================
    All of the models are wrong. We’ll not crash out. There’s a new paradigm and it’s not based on past models. That’s the grand miscalculation rampant in today’s thinking.
    The U.S. is supra normal; so all future models which are necessarily based on the past are null and void.
    The U.S. is ruled by a thinking mode which has all the indications of a psychosis; if the U.S. perceives it is threatened by forces out side of it’s borders it will react to the degree it perceives the threat; up to and including a first strike with nuclear weapons; if, on the other hand the perceived threat is internal; then all rights will be suspended per martial law. We’ll see repressive measures which will make the McCarthy era seem like a picnic.
    The first demonstration of this may well be an attack on Iran via Israel with nuclear bunker buster penetrator bombs.
    I’m not certain people in the U.S. understand the reality of their position under the present mindset of the U.S. government.

  5. Ian Welsh

    Whenever tells me that all models from the past are false, I laugh.

    The US is not “supra normal”. If wars occur as part of the US crashing out, that is entirely and completely normal. It is part of the decline of virtually every great power.

  6. Celsius 233

    Actually, I hope you’re right. I guess time will tell, and a long time it will be.

  7. Greg

    FTB, I remember when Kennedy’s book came out all those years ago, the sneers coming from the right, at his conclusions. Kennedy should be hailed as a prophet, but sadly, he is largely ignored.

  8. No Mames Buey

    “I would add at least three quarters of all financial activity in the US” is not productive

    are you referring to the FIRE sector broadly, or just investment markets?

    I’d love to see a rough/qualitatative/ballpark breakdown as to the 25% productive FIRE vs the 75% nonproductive FIRE. Would love to see your post on it, or reference to other article/book that addresses this topic.

    My sense is that a lot has to do if a certain FIRE industry segment its cartel or non-cartel status
    1 cartel – firms suceed by paying off politrickians to maintain cartel status (example NYC investment banks, us health insurers)
    vs
    2a at least decent “competitive market”, where firms suceed by actually providing a good service at a fair price (ex auto insurance for consumers)
    or
    2b a public sector function that has low overhead & some minimal accountability via calling politrickians’ office or voting said politrickians out (ex Social Security for “pension” income security)
    or
    2c heavily & appropriately regulated private sector such that the consumer is getting a standardized vanilla useful fairly priced service (ex the Swiss heath care insurance system)

    I suppose certain activities are inherently unproductive FIRE, regardless of the cartel or noncartel status of that industry segment. Derivatives with no insurable interest on these securitized real estate assests is a pure gambling, non-productive FIRE, the equivalent of me gambling that some random person in Boise’s house will burn down or car will crash. Whereas me buying a casualty insurance product against my own house burning down or car crashing is productive FIRE.

  9. alyosha

    More Margolis, same article:

    America needs a fair, honest war tax.

    The U.S. clearly has reached the point of imperial overreach. Military spending and debt-servicing are cannibalizing the U.S. economy, the real basis of its world power. Besides the late U.S.S.R., the U.S. also increasingly resembles the dying British Empire in 1945, crushed by immense debts incurred to wage the Second World War, unable to continue financing or defending the imperium, yet still imbued with imperial pretensions.

    It is increasingly clear the president is not in control of America’s runaway military juggernaut. Sixty years ago, the great President Dwight Eisenhower, whose portrait I keep by my desk, warned Americans to beware of the military-industrial complex. Six decades later, partisans of permanent war and world domination have joined Wall Street’s money lenders to put America into thrall.

    Increasing numbers of Americans are rightly outraged and fearful of runaway deficits. Most do not understand their political leaders are also spending their nation into ruin through unnecessary foreign wars and a vainglorious attempt to control much of the globe — what neocons call “full spectrum dominance.”

    If Obama really were serious about restoring America’s economic health, he would demand military spending be slashed, quickly end the Iraq and Afghan wars and break up the nation’s giant Frankenbanks.

    Instead, what were getting is a commission on how to handle the deficit by slashing entitlements. Others have wondered why Obama is so timid about this, why, as Margolis put it, It is increasingly clear the president is not in control of America’s runaway military juggernaut.

    I think at some level Obama’s people recognize this is a major way to keep the economy running, to keep stock prices up, and to forestall a crash of a weak economy. And of course it has political payoffs too.

  10. Ian Welsh

    FIRE as a whole. The basis is that back when the US was healthy, FIRE profits were about 10% of total profits. At their height, they were about 40%. Very very ballpark (and depends how you count profits), but that’s how I made the estimate.

    I used to work in insurance. Insurance can be productive, but otoh, sometimes even something like property insurance is counterproductive (people shouldn’t be allowed to build on coastal wetlands in the south, for example, since by doing so they make things like Katrina far more likely.)

    And private basic health insurance is pretty much non productive, at least as it’s done in the US. For that matter, well run public auto insurance winds up cheaper than private (in Canada, people in private insurance provinces are always trying to scam their way into public insurance in neighbouring public insurance provinces, because it’s cheaper and better.)

    In general, if you’re going to insure everyone in a more or less uniform way, insurance should be covered by the government. It’s one of the things government does way better than private industry.

  11. John

    I find it interesting that Kevin Phillip’s American Theocracy is selling in the remaindered bin at Amazon for $6.89. He about sums it up: religious whackjobs running the show, peak oil and a financialized economy as an end state of an imperial process. The fact that Barack Obama felt obligated to attend the National Prayer Breakfast along with a who’s who of the US government shows the religious whackjobs are still running the show. Peak oil is just hiding under a recession economy, but I bet it occupies a lot of thought in Beijing. And Phillips explains the financialized economy as a process of declining empires with the Spanish, Dutch and Brit empires as examples. War always seems to accompany the last gasp of empire. And he discusses that there are choices to be made after the empire ending war.
    An important book. The title is a little deceptive leading one to think it is just a book about extreme religion. But my biggest takeaway was about the financialized economy and historical examples of why it will take the US down.

  12. zot23

    Good post, good comments. Depressing , but quality discussion of the real issues at hand.

    As John says above, the best thing to think about is how to steer the ship to make a good decision after the last war is fought on the sovereign credit card. The pain is all but inevitable, what happens because of it is still very much up for grabs. How do we position ourselves to have the right tools on hand at the critical moment? ‘Cuz Sarah Palin and crew have their solutions and ours better damn well be better and in the pipe first.

  13. b.

    “America needs a fair, honest war tax.”

    Don’t you wish that the founders had put this in the constitution – an added tax for all expenditures due to war. But then, they would have had to put the war powers in the constitution in a way that is not subject to dereliction of duty by Congress…

    If nobody can stop undeclared war by taking a case to the courts, what is the point of discussing a war tax? Put all “defense” and “security” expenditures in a separate tax? Into a separate deficit serviced by a dedicated tax?

    This is a society in which the highest level of government kidnapped, assassinated, tortured, detained with impunity – with the most recent “Peak Torture” under Bush – and where the government continues to do so in a “refined” manner while Barack “Bygones” Obama is attempting to codify the depravity of 43’s pioneering days into the new normal. If you cannot have “honest” executions, an “honest” tax does not strike me as likely.

    Hostis humanis generis. Once common sense and decency are lost, no constitution, no law can withstand a hysteric mob manipulated by inbred wealth.

  14. tjfxh

    And all the president’s nominees have been put on hold in the Senate until that single senator gets the military pork he wants for his state. Military spending is spread out in the US, and very region depends on it. Change? Never happen.

  15. anonymous

    I like Krugman’s last line today. “America is not lost yet. But the Senate is working on it.”

  16. Formerly T-Bear

    Taking another chance with ºC233 about, not knowing which book will be required verbatim memorization. On a lark a copy of Karl Marx and Frederick Engels “The Communist Manifesto” ISBN 978-1-85984-898-2 was obtained with an introduction by a Eric Hobsbawm who presented a curious approach to the manifesto – to treat the manifesto as an historical document in that the presentation was unchangeable BUT its interpretation could be construed in present day language and economic conditions. That POV is accurate and contains great power to cut the propaganda fog to see today’s economic state. As the movie line went: Hold on to your seats, the ride is going to get rough.

  17. By the way, I liked Margolis’ reference to the Ottoman Empire. For the past few months, I have taken to referring to the White House as the Sublime Porte.

  18. Celsius 233

    @ Formerly T-Bear;
    to treat the manifesto as an historical document in that the presentation was unchangeable BUT its interpretation could be construed in present day language and economic conditions. That POV is accurate and contains great power to cut the propaganda fog to see today’s economic state. As the movie line went: Hold on to your seats, the ride is going to get rough.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    The powers that be are not paying much attention to “us” and have moved very quickly recently to consolidate their power. Power is the game; money is only a convenient result of power. The economy is solidly 2 tiered (has been for some time).
    Their economy has little to do with us anymore.
    And the only people who need to hold onto their seats (good one, because we don’t even have seatbelts anymore) are “us”.
    The sense of disenfranchisement is no longer a vague feeling, but a tangible reality.

  19. Celsius 233

    Addendum;
    This (our) empire has already fallen; but it’s not recognizable because the power structure is still in place and control; where it will remain regardless of what happens to “us”. It’s 1984 on steroids.

  20. But this is the Tower of Babel fantasy that all elite classes have; that they can build a structure that will allow them to transcend even as they remain rooted on this Earth.

    The most recent version of the Tower of Babel is called the asset bubble.

  21. Formerly T-Bear

    ºC, if I can be informal, you will find no disagreement from this quarter about your assessment of the Republic AND the economy upon which it once was based. You will also note, there is rather sparse pickings in the way of alternative concepts to use to rebuild; the “combination” to the present Republic is deciphered and known and that “safe” can be robbed at will, the political Republic, as it is, is incapable of further function.

    As with a compass there are “cardinal” points also needed to be cognizant of in constructing an alternative edifice to replace the present bankrupt and collapsing construct. Those cardinal points are education in: History, Economics, Political Sociology and Psychiatry, and Law to name a few of the major directions needed to plot a course to a safe harbour in regaining a functioning governance whatever the form that might take. Discounting the record of human experience is an egregious hubristic error, but few will bother to read the record, to hear in bygone voices their own words. Reinventing the Republic is required, reinventing the wheel is not a utilitarian option.

    Corporations are not the enemy, Corporate command of the means of economic production IS.

  22. Celsius 233

    @ Formerly T-Bear;

    No disagreement here either. You make good points, especially regarding history and education.
    The “structure” (aka, power elite) as I see it has cut lose of geography as an important physical spot to reside.
    Your closing sentence; “Corporations are not the enemy, Corporate command of the means of economic production IS.” pretty much sums it up. The movie Food Inc. makes a hugely powerful statement exactly along those lines. I highly recommend that movie.
    With meaningful production no longer inside of the U.S., America’s value may be its relatively clean environs and corporate friendly laws. Worth mentioning is the presence of a compliant and impotent population lacking a “true” education and devoid of any critical thinking skills. With a healthy dose of denial, one has a powerful if not deadly combination of ingredients for an easily dominated society.

  23. Celsius 233

    Without a peasant rebellion; no guns, just symbolic pitch forks, I don’t see how there could be a model to go forward. There is no going back; so forward it must be and our form of democracy sucks anyway; I’d like to see something along the lines of what the English have. At least they can kick the bankrupt bastards out at about any time they’ve had enough.

  24. Celsius 233

    @ Mandos;

    No, no tower of Babel. We already speak in Babel; but our betters are not interested in speaking to god; just keeping their power and they may have found a way to do it. An intangible spreading of fear of loss. Showing how they control the greatest myth of all time; behold; The Great American Dream, now turned into the great American nightmare…
    And you know what? I think they want it back; there is the real nightmare, IMO. 😉

  25. Celsius 233

    Oh, shame on me; re: I think they want it back; there is the real nightmare, IMO. Ugh, my bad.

    I’m referring to the American people wanting the dream back; sorry.

  26. alyosha

    @Celcius 233: With meaningful production no longer inside of the U.S., America’s value may be its relatively clean environs and corporate friendly laws. Worth mentioning is the presence of a compliant and impotent population lacking a “true” education and devoid of any critical thinking skills. With a healthy dose of denial, one has a powerful if not deadly combination of ingredients for an easily dominated society.

    The USA has lots of arable land and fresh water, that many countries are envious of. I expect some kind of agricultural feudalism to return as well as natural resource stripping, albeit for foreign masters.

    In the dystopian novel, “Parable of the Sower”, some foreign concern set up some kind of production facility in America – I don’t remember what they were growing or making, but many desperate and hungry American citizens flocked to supplicate themselves therewith and in essence become serfs.

  27. i remember a conversation i had with a white guy from S. Africa and a British guy who i knew from the bar in which i worked, years ago. they basically agreed that the US is in terminal decline, and this was in the early 90s, when times were “good.” i think the rest of the world has known that we’re a dying empire, and it’s mostly our media isolation which keeps this out of the public discussion. but i find that people here in MI are very, very aware of the decline. how can we not be? our main industries have been allowed to die, the Asian Carp summit was a big fuck you to the one remaining industry that isn’t dying, and the U6 here continues to climb, already having been at Depression levels for years. our politicians don’t care and are addicted to meaningless games amongst themselves, and the smart young people leave as soon as they can get out.

    i was just talking to a friend about this early today, and i said that i can laugh about it, at this point. anyone who has followed politics like most of us here do understands that the tipping point (pick your favorite; 2000, 2004, etc) has past, and whatever chances we had to avoid total crash are long gone. so i’m very Zen about it, in that way that the monks are told to be, as they sit on corpses on the charnel house grounds and come to accept that one day they will be so. it makes life easier to live, knowing one is going to die. similarly, i am able to endure the national decline without depression, as all empires must also end.

  28. Formerly T-Bear

    @Chicago Dyke – It is uncomfortable being last in a conversation, without response. A couple posts above lambert strether gave a link to:
    http://www.correntewire.com/where_begin
    which has some good advice on survival in a collapsing system. At its basic, economics describes how people meet their needs, wants and desires (needs = basic requirements to survive (food, shelter, clothing, etc.); wants = enough to satiate, produce a measure of wellbeing; desires = beyond satiation, for status or prestige). Another way to see economics is to consider mankind’s ecological niche and the economic superstructures that have been built to better satisfy economic needs, wants, and desires e.g. money, writing and record keeping, law, transportation systems, communications, etc. etc.

    The development of a social network may be the key to developing survival skills, as in it takes a village to raise a child, so too, a village provides the best survival possibilities for all. If this is realized, there may be some prophesy in who will inherit the earth, it certainly will not be those highest in the present food-chain, the self-styled masters of the universe.

    All the best …….

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