The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

May 6th US Covid Data

Our benefactor writes:
We’ve crossed 70,000 deaths. The spate of re-openings will likely lead to an increase of new cases and deaths over the next month. This is forecast by US leadership, even as they proceed. Those of us in sane states should proceed with extreme caution.
I ran the numbers on the states to compare consecutive seven-day averages using the color coding similar to the linked map. Two more states, PA and MI, have moved into the decreasing categories (light and dark teal) just in the last two days. Don’t believe Arkansas’ numbers for a minute. They are one of the most retrograde states in the US, and it would not be surprising if they were cooking their numbers. Four more states, LA, OR, AL, and CA have moved into the worsening categories (light and dark brown), CA significantly.

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The Dunning-Kruger Affect


May 7th US Covid Data


  1. Zachary Smith

    Don’t believe Arkansas’ numbers for a minute. They are one of the most retrograde states in the US, and it would not be surprising if they were cooking their numbers.

    With that thought in mind, I went to the Reuters map listing the reported statistics of Nevada, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Kansas. These four states have virtually the same population so a comparison seems relevant.

    Nevada 3.08 million, 5,594 cases, 268 deaths
    Arkansas 3.02 million, 3,525 cases, 83 deaths
    Mississippi 2.98 million, 8,207 cases, 342 deaths
    Kansas 2.91 million, 5,486 cases, 137 deaths

    Thanks for the reminder that we have to be skeptical. I expect some other states are cooking the books as well.

  2. NR

    We’re going to have 100,000 dead by the end of the month and the members of the “pro-life” party don’t give a shit.

  3. Zachary Smith

    We’re going to have 100,000 dead by the end of the month and the members of the “pro-life” party don’t give a shit.

    Wrong! They are the most loving and caring people on Earth, (or anywhere else in the Universe) but only for the “unborn”. It’s the ‘already born’ people they “don’t give a shit” about. When the little bastards take their first breath, they’re on their own in a dog-eat-dog Republican world.

    Here is the National Right to Life Committee’s reverent description of the “Grab them by the p**sy” Stable Genius & Bleach-Injecting Donald John Trump.

    “America, when it is at its best, follows a set of rules that have worked since our
    Founding. One of those rules is that we, as Americans, revere life and have done
    so since our Founders made it the first, and most important, of our ‘unalienable’
    -President Donald J. Trump

    The NRLC honors a person who really cares about Life. Just as much as they themselves do.

  4. Zachary Smith

    The US continues to go to hell in a handbasket, and President Dumbass continues to blame everyone except himself. Indeed, the Stable Genius praises himself for his marvelous leadership.

    Maybe our best work’: Trump praises his coronavirus response
    The president also said he was not comfortable with the 2020 election potentially becoming a referendum on his handling of the pandemic.

    The RNC also seems to be getting a little worried about the potential for the election getting out of control to the point even Diebold-type electronic voting machines and unlimited advertising money won’t be able to plausible re-elect Pu**y Gr*****g Trump. Since Iran remains unwhacked, the Warmongering Post (aka Jeff Bezos’ Blog) has an opinion piece telling the serfs to cool it.

    When this pandemic is over, let’s avoid the partisan blame game
    By Mitch ‘little bald-headed weasel’ Daniels

    This is the fellow who scampered into Indiana after barely avoiding being charged with some pretty nasty ‘stuff’ in DC. Naturally Red-State Indiana instantly made him governor, and after doing untold damage to this state, installed himself as President of Purdue. He wants love and brotherhood and 4 More Years of Trump.

    The RNC’s ‘mud sill’ workers are also jumping into the fray with stuff like this:

    Guys, even if every last Rethuglikkkan in the world is replaced with one of your precious commies, you are still going to die (despite what they may tell you). Sorry to break it to you.

    Consider the ‘reasoning’ here. You’re going to die someday. What the hell does it matter if it happens 50 years from now of old age or next week from Covid 19? Dead is Dead, isn’t it? In the first case your death will have been for nothing worthwhile, but in the latter your joining in the Reopening of The Economy will be for the eternal Glory of Trump.

    Get a life, you ignorant fools. You’re going to die no matter what, so Die For A Worthwhile Cause! You can always have Trump, 2020 put on your tombstone.

  5. Zachary Smith

    Remdesivir: Gilead wins with unimpressive results announced by press release

    The author has some real problems with the new miracle drug being hyped by the Trumpies – and the manufacturer which stands to make a lot of money from the free publicity.

    If magical thinking doesn’t work, then whip out another miracle cure. I’m beginning to feel some points of agreement with a relative who has some extreme doubts about that Fauci fellow.

  6. Joan

    I just wanted to add some anecdotal evidence from an extended family member who’s had covid for the last month (in the US). Middle-aged, otherwise healthy since he works in fitness. This thing can hang onto you for a long time, especially the cough that makes it so contagious. He’s currently okay with his job, it’s high risk so I don’t think they’ll fire him, but he might have transitioned from paid time off to unpaid, I don’t know. Anyway, his case definitely shows you can be healthy and it can stay with you for several weeks, whereas I’d been hearing a lot of “I had a rough week but then I got better” online. Stay safe everyone. Best wishes.

  7. Stormcrow


    We’re going to have 100,000 dead by the end of the month and the members of the “pro-life” party don’t give a shit.

    The official fatality numbers, per the Johns Hopkins dataset, which we already know to be gross underestimates, place yesterday’s fatalities at 73,431.

    We have not had as few as 1,000 fatalities/day since April 2. So in order to suffer as few as 100,000 fatalities by May 31, we have to lose no more than 1107 per day. This is an unrealistically optimitic projection, in the light of the last month’s numbers.

    In fact, the average value of fatalites/day, over the 36 days from April 1 through May 6, is over 1900.

    So let’s take 1500 fatalites/day as the low estimate, and 2000 fatalities/day as the high estimate. Yes, I know you’re laughing your asses off at this point. If I were reading this, I would too.

    Then do a straight linear projection to get our upper and lower bounds for May 31: 73431 + 24 * (daily average).

    That gives us somewhere between 110,000 and 120,000 deaths by the end of the month.

    I do not see any freaking way we’re going to lose fewer than that, unless we well and truly get past the fatality maximum by the end of the month.

  8. Stormcrow


    Personal experience with colds and flu, which are cakewalks compared to COVID-19, have prepared me for an absolute minimum of 2-3 weeks duration. But a month is closer to typical, first sniffle to final guttering out.

    Assuming I contract this stuff and somehow don’t end up as fertilizer in direct consequence, which will mildly surprise me, I’ll be very surprised if I see the last of it in less than 1.5 – 2 months.

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