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Update: minority Liberal government which will require help from the NDP to survive non confidence motions. Hopefully the NDP will be smart and tough enough to hold out for electoral reform in exchange.
The left-center NDP is being slaughtered and seems likely to lose its official party status.
Five months ago I would have said, and did say, that the Conservatives would form the next government, with Poilievre (a Trump figure) as Prime Minister.
Fortunately, Trump truly is a Christ-like figure, and raised the Liberal party from the dead. Poilievre mishandled Trump’s threats, saying that Trump had a point and so on. Living in an right wing echo chamber he thought that Canadians aren’t patriotic, and most are. This was an unforced error. Ontario Premier Ford did the opposite: he ran against Trump, called a surprise election and won handily. I despise Ford, but he’s a smart politician. Poilievre, on the other hand, is just an attack dog, and a true believer in Trumpist style right wing politics.
This isn’t to say I like the Liberals or Carney. Carney has the dubious honor of haveing beeen in charge of Canada and Britain’s central bank, and is the only central banker to blow housing bubbles in two countries. As for the Liberals, they were a terrible government and the only good things they did were forced on them by the NDP, whose support they needed to stay in government.
Trudeau’s liberals let in record numbers of immigrants and the result was massive increases in rent and a smother of wage gains.
The mistake that Canadian Conservative voters made, which Trump saved Canada from, was the assumption that Poilievre would be better. He would have been far, far worse. There was even talk of creating a Canadian “DOGE.”
Canada, much like America, needs a proportional vote system, so that the two and a half party monopoly can be broken up and a Trump-like figure locked out of government unless they can achieve a genuine majority.
We’ll see how Carney does. Though I don’t like his record, he has said some very sensible things about re-industrialization in Canada, including proper vertical integration. There’s almost no mineral resource Canada doesn’t have, if we want we can easily re-industrialize. He’s also talked some sense about the housing market.
Whether he carries thru remains to be seen. He won’t be fantastically successful, he’s still a neoliberal and committed to policies like low taxes on the rich, but as neoliberals go, he may turn out not too bad.
Fingers crossed.
Update 1: Looking like Poilievre may lose his own riding. For context, Poilievre is an MP in Ottawa, Canada’s capital, where the largest employer is the Federal government. Poilievre said he would gut the civil service and even threatened to DOGE it. Truly in the running for stupidest politician in the world.
mago
“Fingers crossed” is all we’ve got.
Danfmto
With no NDP it’s going to be a terrible parliament for Palestinians. Only hope is that the Libs need the NDP for 172 seats.
different clue
The better the Liberals and Carney do, the more I hope that in his speech he makes a special point of specially thanking Donald Trump for providing Canada the inspiration needed to elect the Liberals.
It would be the ultimate ” TrumpTroll” and might drive Trump viciously crazy enough to make him decompensate on live TV to the point that an Insiders’ Cabal decides that ” the time has come” to solve “our little problem”.
Perhaps 50-80 million Blue Team members can all go on a National Consumption Slowdown to ” Make America Unprofitable” to the point where elements of the Business Community feel motivated to quietly take the Republican officeholders behind closed doors and quietly terrify them into “doing the right thing”.
Warvigilent
Hopefully the Island and Vancouver add some more ndp seats. They kept the liberals in line enough not to throw everything away to the cons . Poliev should have never been so popular , the very definition of effete politician who has never done anything else. Its unbelievable that so many working class people love him, fucking insane. He was on the island and visited a construction site and apparently the workers emptied the building to go see him. Bloody morons the lot of them, go cheer the suit who will sell you and your children’s future to the rich.
Failed Scholar
Carney AKA Mr. Housing Bubble is going to be an absolute sh*t PM, almost certainly. Carney literally has Mark Wiseman as his campaign chair (Century Initiative Founder and leader) https://www.ipolitics.ca/2025/03/20/carney-adds-century-initiative-co-founder-to-canada-u-s-council/ so that should tell you all you need to know about his immigration policies. And if that wasn’t bad enough, there is Sean Fraser, Trudeau’s Immigration minister and later housing minister. This POS had slunk away and announced he wouldn’t seek re-election “for family reasons” because of the absolute shit job he and his boss did on those files, and it was Carney apparently who ‘asked Fraser to reconsider’. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/sean-fraser-reelection-1.7492503 Imagine that. Maybe Carney can make him immigration minister again? They can crank up the numbers to 5 million a year, imagine the GEEEEDEEEPEEEEE Ian! Our bankster overlords are probably calculating right now how many they need to triple housing prices one more time, should be a grand olde time.
It’s absolutely mind-boggling to me that after so many years of eating Liberal sh*t, we somehow get yet another Lib government with a potentially even more neoshitlib leader at the helm this time. Amazing. “Democracy”, folks, ain’t it grand?
And the most retarded part in all this is, the NDP had to fucking commit suicide to keep an even shittier Con “””leader””” out of office. If the NDP ever even thinks about forming coalitions with the ShitLib party of Canada again (assuming the NDP even survives mind you), electoral reform needs to be front and center policy #1, #2, and #3, no exceptions. I trust they will sear that lesson into their brains forever after tonight.
NR
As I recall, the Conservatives had a 25 point lead in the polls not terribly long ago. It’s amazing how quickly Trump’s rhetoric turned the tide in favor of the Liberals.
It’ll be interesting to see if the same thing happens in Australia this weekend. The conservative opposition was favored to win there, but Labor has been trying to tie them to Trump, and I’ve seen reports that it’s been working. We’ll find out soon.
someofparts
Pleased to see that our bad example actually did some good. As things get even worse down here, let’s hope it provides even greater incentives to stay on track and shun the crazies. You should offer to let the northern parts of the US become Canadian provinces.
Failed Scholar
My apologies, I was wrong about Carney’s campaign chair being Wiseman (although those two are clearly buddy buddy enough to be concerned). Carney’s campaign director appears to be Trudeau man Tom Pitfield. The dangers of ranting too fast people!
In any case, what I mentioned stands and I think his goals will still be the same, as pumping the econ numbers with bodies (and crushing labour power) is the overall goal of these people and always will be despite whatever lies and BS they feed us. It’s their favourite cheat code, whether through deliberate policy or the kind of “awww shucks we let in another bajillion” method they use in the Disunited States and Not So Great Britain.
Failed Scholar
@NR
The Conservative’s lead back in January was 27 points ahead of the Liberals(!!!), to give you some idea of the epic fumble: https://nanos.co/conservatives-47-liberals-20-ndp-18-canadians-increasingly-focused-on-jobs-the-economy-nanos/
Jessica
In addition to Poilievre seeming too Trump like, the other weakness in the Conservative strategy was focusing their attacks too much on Trudeau as a person. That worked great until Justin stepped aside.
Not to hard to imagine folks in the US doing the same with regards to Trump and winding up with Vance.
I don’t think there is anyone in power anywhere clever and bold enough to do it, but sometimes Trump does seem like an op set up to discredit everything that he seems to stand for. Even more than Obama did.
The only other US president to serve two non-consecutive terms, Grover Cleveland, was so unpopular by the end of his second term, that his party, the Democrats, pivoted to a candidate with a completely different agenda (William Jennings Bryan, on whose behalf silver interests had hijacked the Populist Party).
Joan
Are the covid-era immigrants largely leaving or staying? I had thought that the middle class ones who came to Canada for education leading to a job would have considered leaving when the job didn’t materialize.
Alkeyma
The funniest thing I saw was the Poilievre apple interview.
I’m not Canadian – but as a daily visitor to Ian’s site for at least a decade, I follow Canadian politics. Wishing you all the best with your unfuckening.
different clue
Here is a comment I lifted from a thread found on reddit . . .
” I asked my sister in law, who is a devout Christian, is Trump a godly man…
She looked me in the eye and said, “He was saved from the assassin by God, to lead us through the end of days.”
I said, “OK.”
Ya can’t argue with that.
The remorseful Trump supporter is a myth like the undecided voter. ”
This is an example of the people who make up Trump’s Talibangelical base. That base is firm and will stay firm.
What percent of the Canadian electorate is Talibangelical?
Failed Scholar
@ Joan
Stats Can cites that “one in three” become permanent residents”, but that may be playing numbers games given the massive increase in their number since 2022: https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/7457-temporary-foreign-workers-canada-explained How many of these people just drop off the radar and stick around illegally isn’t mentioned. The government supposedly ‘expects’ that 1.2 million will be leaving once their visas expire, but I highly doubt that figure given that enforcement is such a joke: https://betterdwelling.com/canada-expects-1-2-million-residents-to-leave-next-year-refugee-claims-soar/
We’ve had huge increases in both permanent residents and “temporary” foreign workers, students etc. The student entry stream was also massively abused as an easy entryway into Canada via fake diploma mills once the Trudeau gov decided to allow foreign ‘students’ to work here full time (they were previously denied working at all while studying here), and it became so much of an issue that the morons in charge had to do something about it even if only for the terrible optics: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/provinces-cracking-down-on-private-institutions-1.7091194 .
Then there is the ‘temporary’ foreign workers programme, that every company and their dog now eyes as an easy access point to cheap labour. One of the latest I’ve heard of, as an example, is WestJet who had applied to hire foreign pilots to fly their planes: https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/westjet-halts-bid-to-hire-temporary-foreign-workers-as-pilots/ But it isn’t limited to large corporations, even smaller mom and pop operations are in on the fun, like these folks in BC, who took kickbacks from their Indian countrymen to hire them on as TFW mechanics: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/foreign-worker-awarded-damages-1.7508140 Why the whole lot of these fraudsters aren’t deported for this kind of abuse is beyond me. This whole programme is such an obvious abuse and fraud on Canadian workers that Trudeau himself originally campaigned to “scale back dramatically” – you can see Trudy in his own words here from 2014: https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/justin-trudeau-how-to-fix-the-broken-temporary-foreign-worker-program/article_c27f214f-1fa2-5fdf-af61-5a7642e4eb7c.html
I am assured, of course, that the aptly named “Carney” is gonna fix this mess rather than let this clown show continue.
Forecasting Intelligence
https://www.netnewsledger.com/2025/03/20/trumps-endorsement-of-mark-carney-shakes-up-canadian-election-race/?fbclid=IwY2xjawJ-CqFleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETBpRFNjallrQmNuZ0NWTkhXAR7fTKW2wVrM14lQvgvOyegWm-n8ULbAr8sGtE1Q3jwWi3k2THRBGXyMhs8YPA_aem_Sm10a1o9QJTGog0bLVShUQ
Trump endorsed Carney.
All you need to know.
Mark Level
I wasn’t going to comment on this thread, knowing so little about Canada. However, Russell Dobular of Due Dissidence today covered that Carney as a bankster bailed out Jared Kushner when he was underwater on his bad “666” building with a $1.2 Billion deal; also Trump seems to have thrown Poliviere under the bus for personal reasons.
All the info is here via something called “Juno News”– I love that the MAGAts think that Trump is “anti-Globalist, anti-Deep State” guy. Like George Carlin said, it’s a small club and you ain’t in it! https://www.junonews.com/p/carneys-ex-company-brookfield-has
Ian Welsh
Endorsing Carney actually damaged him. Not sure Trump knows that, but he’s not a complete dunce.
different clue
So was Trump’s endorsement of Carney meant as a “kiss-of-death” endorsement designed to get Carney defeated?
Trump is very sly and cunning and shrewd. He learned a lot from his mentor Roy Cohn. His targets fail to remember that.
Mark Level
I mean, grocery shelves are about to be empty, Republicans at town halls are screaming at their “representatives” why are you just deporting 2-year old children with cancer, and doing nothing for us, and Trump has a lot more coming his way that is going to damage him. Per the DD guys, Trump never explicitly “endorsed” Carney, but once he’d won the first election he did (sneakily) say that he looked forward to talking to him in 3 months after the next (this one) election, wink & a nod.
Trump is 100% transactional so this is no surprise. No one expects any moral or upright behavior from Trump at this point. I think Carney is the one who may have the Albatross around his neck for the foreseeable future. Can he serve Mammon (Trump) & Canada at the same time? I think we all know the answer to that.
Carborundum
We did not have a recent massive increase in the number of permanent residents. The rapid increase was in *non-permanent* residents, which went from 1.3 million in Q1 2021 to 3.0 million in Q1 2025. (Prior to Q1 2021 Statcan didn’t even generate regular estimates of nonpermanent residents – that’s how insignificant the category used to be.)
There was an increase in the number of permanent residents dating back to 2015, when the Liberals increased immigration numbers and changed the admissions criteria a bit. I don’t have exact statistics at hand and I’m working from memory because the StatCan website is down – again – but my recollection is that the numbers went from somewhere around 250K to somewhere around 450K – 500K. That increase was a lot more gradual than the spike in non-permanent residents.
Oakchair
Canada, much like America, needs a proportional vote system,
—–
Look at the state of Germen, Greek and Israeli politics.
I understand the arguments for a proportional electoral system, and maybe it would improve matters but I’m skeptical it would.
Re: the horrors of too many immigrants.
Is it immigrants leaving houses unrented and constricting supply to increase housing costs?
Is it immigrants who made it so that the tech, health, utilities, housing, transportation cost upwards of 100x more because they operate as monopolies?
Is it immigrants dumping industrial waste into the water, food and air?
Is it immigrants addicting the populace to SSRI’s amphetamines, and opiates because the science says they are safe and effective?
Was it immigrants who convinced everyone to inject every child 70+ times with heavy metals based on 7 day long studies with no control group?
Nope that was all the ruling class. They love immigrants because any and every distraction aids their pillaging and depravity.