Let’s take this in steps.
Air Defense Iranian air defense was not active for the first attack wave. They were online for the second one, about six hours later. It’s unclear why. I have heard two credible claims. The first is that they were hit by a cyber-attack, but came online faster than the Israelis expected.
The second is that the Iranians deliberately played rope-a-dope. The first attack was largely a matter of stand-off munitions, which the Israelis have (had) very limited supplies of. The Iranians tanked that hit, counting on the fact that most military targets were underground and hardened. Then when the second attack happened, which required close in attack, the air defenses were turned on. Because they had not been compromised in the first attack (air defense use makes air defense visible) they were much more effective.
Intelligence Penetration of Iran This was obviously severe, given the number of senior personnel killed during the initial attacks, and given how much of the initial attacks were carried out by drones and automated anti-air defense inside Iran. But what needs to be understood is that Mossad’s networks are being severely degraded. Intelligence networks which are passive, which don’t do anything very active, can exist for years or even decades, but when they go live and are actually used for attacks assets are exposed. Reports are pouring out of Iran of raids on Israeli intelligence agents and collaborators, and while they may be overstated, I find them credible, because it’s how such things work. Israel has gone big, and they are burning assets.
Iranian Counter-Attack This was strong, but not as strong as it could have been. While there’s reason to believe that a lot of the missile launchers hit were dummies, the Iranians should have been able to launch about a thousand missiles in a salvo, and they didn’t. Air defense systems are very subject to be being overwhelmed by numbers. Now it’s possible that they didn’t because they wanted the data from initial strikes to pinpoint air defense, and that each wave was designed to “clear a path”, the first strike, even, hit hard: taking out a lot of military assets and state capacity.
It should also be noted that Iran has not used its most advanced missiles yet. The stuff being sent is mostly old crap that would have been decommissioned in a few years anyway, interspersed with some better missiles, but not the most recent varieties. Iran still has a lot held for future attacks.
If you need a little cheering up, this video compilation of hits on Tel Aviv (obviously partial), may help.
A compilation of direct hits by Iran’s Ballistic Missiles on June 13th & 14th’s nights. pic.twitter.com/unmgJiCIdF
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) June 15, 2025
Here is some footage of destruction:
Israeli TV Channel 11 showed video of destruction in the cities of Bat Yam and Rehovot
Meanwhile, Iran’s high command issued a statement:
” Our old missiles saw what they did in Tel Aviv, the Israel will have to wait for our newest technical missiles tonight.” pic.twitter.com/K1xKddCMxv
— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) June 15, 2025
Some footage of destruction in Tel Aviv itself.
Yes, this is Tel Aviv.
What word would you use to describe this ? pic.twitter.com/JeFFVLj4Y8
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) June 15, 2025
All of this is much worse than the previous Iranian attacks. Real destruction. I will point out that if Iran had done this after the embassy assassinations they might have restored deterrence and not suffered this particular attack. Cowardice has its price, and it is often greater than that of bravery.
Finally, from the IDF itself:
IDF ‘would rather not millions of Israelis run to shelter’ pic.twitter.com/dzbvDp4Nbf
— RT (@RT_com) June 14, 2025
Israel does not have enough interceptors and air defense to stop the Iranians from completely devastating their country, which is why they are begging everyone to help them. Iran is already beginning to target Israeli Air Defense. US naval assets can only help so much, as they carry limited supplies and the US itself produces very few air defense missiles every year. Using them all up in Israel will make America completely defenseless in any other war (and Zelensky is already squealing.)
This is entirely a race between Israel’s ability to destroy missile launchers with its aircraft, and Iran’s ability to keep launching missiles. The math is that simple. As an aside, Iran should be priority targeting Israeli air fields alongside air defense.
And What About Nukes? Well, I find this interesting. Directly contradicting Khameini in public is important.
Iranian Major General Mohsen Rezaei on Iranian Radio and Television:
We are still exercising restraint and have not deployed all our capabilities to avoid global chaos.
However, we may reach a point where we use new weapons.
We are seeking to form an Islamic army with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and several other countries.
We should move towards the atomic bomb, but according to the Supreme Leader’s fatwa, we do not currently intend to build nuclear weapons.
Iraq should know, it is their turn after us. Iran may be forced to take actions that could destabilize the entire region.
It is, of course, obvious that if Iran had nukes, much or most of this would never have happened. North Korean leaders do not worry about being murdered in their sleep by foreign missiles, drones and bombs.
The China Syndrome. All of the materials required to build drones and ballistic missiles are available, cheap, from China. China gets a lot of oil from Iran, uses Iran for transhipment, and is in general a major ally of Iran. It is also aware that taking out Iran is one of the steps before war with it. Just as I said that China would not allow Russia to be taken out by sanctions (and was right), I expect China in the case of any sort of duration of this war, and, indeed, after it, to supply Iran with everything it needs to ramp up production of missiles and drones. Since China’s production abilities exceed those of the West when it comes to these requirements, this is not a small thing.
No Army Means No Fall. Iran cannot be defeated by airpower alone unless there is a significant uprising in the country which the army is unable or unwilling to stop. One should never underestimate the CIA’s regime change abilities, of course, but if they don’t pull it off then this war is about reducing Iran’s power projection ability: doing enough damage that they surrender in spirit if not in fact.
The Khameini Problem. Nations rot from the top, and this is clearly the fundamental problem in Iran. Khameini is cautious, even timid. He has underplayed his hand every single time during this crisis, most importantly when not sending ground troops to stop the fall of Assad. This caused great problems with the younger members of the Revolutionary Guard, who are hardliners almost to a man. The elimination of senior members of defense and government is not strengthening moderates, it is strengthening hardliners.
Israel has said that Khameini is not off-limits for murder. If they do so, it will be a huge mistake. It will end the non-nuclear fatwa (though the Iraniams will lie about that) and put hardliners in charge. Ironically, the best thing Khameini could do for Iran right now is be Martyred. If Allah Wills It, let it be so. I don’t want to get too down on him, in many ways he’s run Iran very well, but he is a victim of Machiavelli’s dictum that when times change most leaders can’t change with the times and the virtues that made them good leaders in the past make them terrible leaders in the present.
The Russia/China Issue. Iran could have had a full military alliance with Russia. If they did, they’d be in a lot stronger position. Iran really wants to be an independent major regional power. The other option is to be the junior partner in a tripartate bloc with China and Russia. I understand why they want to avoid that, but being #3 in the world’s strongest alliance (and yes, that’s what it would be) comes with an absolute ton of benefits. They need to reconsider this issue. They will get some support from Russia and China, indeed, a lot of support, but neither country is going to go all out for them. If either would, Iran would be in a lot less danger.
Final Ironic Cowardly Nazi Note.
BREAKING: The military cabinet meeting this evening will take place in the new fortified IDF headquarters beneath Ichilov Hospital, which is protected from Iranian missiles after the Defense Ministry was hit last night and is now unsafe.
Ichilov Hospital is a camouflaged… pic.twitter.com/FWZqUul3CN
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) June 14, 2025
Most of Iran’s air and missile command was killed in an underground bunker during a meeting. Hezbollah’s senior leaders were killed in an underground bunker during a meeting. Israel knows Iran has missiles capable of doing the same thing to them, but they know that Iran won’t strike a hospital to kill them. They of course have destroyed many hospitals, in one were the high command of their enemies hiding.
May God grant the side of good, whichever side that is, victory in this conflict and bring an end to genocide.
***
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Oakchair
The elimination of senior members of defense and government is not strengthening moderates, it is strengthening hardliners
——
Every new and surviving old leader/official now has first hand experience that being passive and keeping the gloves on will not stop them from being bombed in their homes with their families present.
They should have known this already, but as you said “Machiavelli’s dictum that when times change most leaders can’t change with the times”
——
Israel has said that Khameini is not off-limits for murder.
—–
Israel is completely toasted on their own arrogance and bloodlust. Not even high grade infused edibles could get someone this burned.
“You know what we need after the last 3 wars? A war with Iran!! Israel fuck yea!”
“Let’s kill everyone who doesn’t want to wage war against us. Team Israel!”
If there is a a God and he loves projection Israel using sick children and women in a hospital as a human shield to plot their war slutting and genocide is getting God and their side.
Gas prices already went up 10% this weekend, wonder what they’ll be by Friday.
The EU decided their economies did just wonderful with the last war that caused their energy prices to shut down their heavy industries. So now it’s round 2.
david lamy
The “WSJ” has a front page article proclaiming Israel’s total air superiority over Iranian airspace. It quotes a US general (retired?) saying that Russia has not achieved air superiority over Ukraine which is why Ukraine is fighting it to a standstill! The article is a twofer, bullshit on both fronts.
I apologize for not linking, but surely this “WSJ” article will not stand scrutiny over the coming hours or at most, days.
DanFmTo
“This is entirely a race between Israel’s ability to destroy missile launchers with its aircraft, and Iran’s ability to keep launching missiles. The math is that simple. As an aside, Iran should be priority targeting Israeli air fields alongside air defense.”
I see the same and am feeling pretty down on Iran’s chances. If the IAF has air freedom in Iran to take out launchers, they’ll grind Iran down. The stories of F-35s shot down appear to have been bullshit. Iran needs to go much bolder while they still can, or end up like Hezbollah.
Feral Finster
“I will point out that if Iran had done this after the embassy assassinations they might have restored deterrence and not suffered this particular attack. Cowardice has its price, and it is often greater than that of bravery….
Nations rot from the top, and this is clearly the fundamental problem in Iran. Khameini is cautious, even timid. He has underplayed his hand ever single time during this crisis….”
No lie, Holmes, no lie. Khamenei and the Russian leadership need to take to heart Krishna’s speech to Arjuna. They should have done this a long time ago.
Dithering, stalling, hemming, hawing. half-assing and wishy washy responses are what made this possible.
Poul
A point about Shia fatwas is that they are legal opinions that only are active when the cleric who issued it is alive.
A dead Khamenei means the new Supreme Leader can choose a new path. Perhaps a reason he still is alive?
Soredemos
Extreme fog of war going on, so I find it hard to tell exactly what Iran is throwing at Istael. But it’s clearly throwing a lot, and for days on end. So I think any notion that Iranian missile and air command has been broken is obviously wrong.
Real functioning organizations have redundancy and deep benches of candidates. They have standardized doctrines and procedures. They have institutional knowledge. It’s not enough to just kill some, or even most, or even all, the leaders and senior personnel. That hurts, it slows things down, but a real functioning organization with a clear mission statement and long established plans and protocols can adapt and roll with the punches.
That seems to be what is at minimum going on now. Iran lost senior people, hurriedly promoted successors, and leapt into the pre-planned responses.
That’s before getting to the matter of if this is just clearly out the conservative old guard and creating opportunities for a much more proactive, younger cohort.
And even surviving old guard leadership must now be forced to confront the obvious reality that the old approach wasn’t working. The decades of building an Axis of Resistance has clearly failed. You can’t pressure or gradually curb Israel. Israel, it turns out, isn’t a rational country that you can just build potential strategic capabilities to counter, but never have to use (‘ballistic missile arsenal in being’?) because Israel has some degree of sense of the limits of ots abilities and a sense of self-preservation. The only thing, if anything, that Israel will respond to is firm, unambiguous punches straight to the face. Fuck around and find out.
If only Iran had realized all this much earlier, when it still had most of its allies active. Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, all flinging meaningful barrages at once, Syria active just over the border and bringing what pressure it could.
mago
One reads so many different and contradictory reports and opinions, that it’s difficult to separate wheat from chaff.
One thing’s for certain, Israel and its supporters are insane. For heads of state and so called journalists to accuse Iran of being the aggressor for defending itself is beyond belief.
Cynicism and nihilism rule.
Thanks for the insights and reportage presented here. This is some fast breaking stuff. I’m praying for a quick and righteous resolution.
Daniil Adamov
Apropos of the ending: during World War One, Nikolai Gumilyov, who volunteered repeatedly to fight for the Entente, wrote that he prayed for the victory of whichever side will treat the vanquished with love and mercy as beloved brothers. A sound notion, though he was perhaps too obsessed with chivalric ideals. If there must be victories in this world, I wish for the victory of whichever side will treat enemy civilians better.
Carborundum
I don’t have a very good sense of how people are defining the relative effectiveness of the Iranian air defence network. The IAF is hitting high value strategic targets that have the densest point defences Iran has 400 – 500 klicks inside Iran – in daylight. Repeatedly. And those targets are eating heavy enough ordnance that the release points have to be well inside Iran. I don’t see a lot in that indicative of improved performance.
Overall, it looks to me like the IAF is successfully putting pressure on Iranian rocketry forces. The salvo sizes thus far are materially smaller than during the 2024 attacks, though I’m not sure whether the Iranians actually want to try and increase the number of simultaneous launches beyond current levels. It looks to me like the proportion of rockets making it through is significantly higher than Israeli statements (they’ve said 25% are making it through, which looks pretty optimistic to me).
I don’t think the determining factor here is their ability to saturate Israeli defences – it looks to me more like it’s a matter of how quickly the Iranians have to shoot and scoot and what look to be not hugely impressive CEPs. If I’m in their shoes, I’m less concerned about massively over-saturating Israeli defences than I am about the survivability of my launch platforms, which is probably the crux of the conflict for them – the supply of TELs and related vehicles is finite (and significantly smaller than a thousand). Their number one concern is regime survival and the key requirements for that are to seem credible to the populace and to have some credible capability remaining when the dust settles – if they empty the tubes, they really aren’t going to have much left.
The crux for the Israelis show short they can make their kill chain. If they’re able to establish pervasive surveillance and significant loiter time outside Iranian AD range, it’s going to be an exciting time to be an IRGC rocketeer.
KT Chong
So, I asked the various AI:
“If the Israel-Iran war does not end quickly, and the conflict persists, how likely will Russia and China become involved? (i.e., they start to quietly provide assistance and support to Iran, like what China has been doing for Russia in the Russia-Ukraine War.)”
Here are the answers from the AI:
ChatGPT:
Bottom Line:
Russia: 70–90% chance of indirect but meaningful support if the war drags on.
China: 40–60% chance, mostly economic and political, less likely military—unless the war threatens to reshape the regional balance of power or hurt China’s interests directly.
– – –
Grok 3:
Probability Assessment
Russia:
High Probability (60-70%): Political support (e.g., UN statements, mediation offers) and limited military-technical assistance (e.g., radars, intelligence sharing).
Moderate Probability (40-50%): Increased supply of niche military equipment (e.g., drones, components) if the conflict persists and Ukraine pressures ease.
Low Probability (10-20%): Direct military involvement or large-scale arms deliveries (e.g., Su-35 jets, S-400 systems) due to capacity constraints and risks with Israel.
China:
High Probability (70-80%): Continued economic support (oil purchases, trade) and diplomatic backing (condemning Israel, calling for peace).
Moderate Probability (30-40%): Quiet provision of dual-use goods or technical assistance for Iranian military production, similar to its Russia support.
Very Low Probability (5-10%): Direct military aid or significant strategic alignment with Iran, given economic ties with the West and regional balancing.
– – –
Perplexity.ai:
Summary
Russia:
Probability of Quietly Providing Assistance/Support to Iran: 70–80%
Probability of Direct Military Involvement: <5%
Reasoning: Russia is likely to offer rhetorical support, disinformation, and possibly limited arms or intelligence to Iran, especially to exploit U.S. distraction and benefit from higher oil prices. However, Russia is not obligated to provide military aid under its partnership with Iran and is already stretched thin by the Ukraine war, making direct military intervention highly improbable.
China:
Probability of Quietly Providing Assistance/Support to Iran: 60–70%
Probability of Direct Military Involvement: <1%
Reasoning: China will likely seek to protect its energy interests and regional stability, possibly offering diplomatic cover, economic support, and mediation. It is unlikely to provide direct military support, as its priority is to maintain trade and avoid direct confrontation with the U.S. or Israel.
In summary, both Russia and China are highly likely to quietly support Iran in non-military ways if the conflict persists, but the probability of direct military involvement is extremely low.
– – –
DeepSeek R1:
Conclusion
Russia (Likelihood: 70-80%): Will expand arms transfers and diplomatic cover, leveraging economic opportunities.
China (Likelihood: 50-60%): Focus on diplomatic mediation and economic lifelines, with limited military-tech aid.
Both powers will calibrate support to avoid crossing thresholds that invite direct U.S. retaliation, but prolonged conflict could see them emerge as key enablers of Iranian resilience.
Curt Kastens
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fM4pwZWrL8M
Brian Berletic and Danny Haiphong have never convinced me of anything. I figured their talking points out between 2003 and 2009, at least a decade before I ever heard of either of them.
To me it is self evident that the US MIC would want to commit genoicide in Gaza as that reduces the danger that Israel faces from it south at a time that I wouid be dealing with Iran on hehalf of the US MIC.
But I can understand why many people are confused about this relationship. The US MIC leadership has gone to extreme measures to muddy tha waters on this issue to make it seem as if the Israels control US Politicians and US Politicians control the MIC. When the reality is that the US MIC controls US Politicians, the US Think Tanks, and the Israelis, and Germany and Japan and France.
Brian Berletic still puts the blame for US behavior on people who work for non governmental US Corporations. But the bottom line of who is responsible is people who work in the Pentagon and the CIA. Though there is certianly a revolving door between the two sets of people. It should be obviouos that the two sets of people could not work towards a goal without centralized command and control. It should be obvious as to where that function could be.
But knowing that does not allow us to predict what the next move of the US MIC will be. So, it does not help Iran any to know that its primary enemy is not Israel but the US MIC. I am sure that the current Iranian leadership has known that for a long time.
ps one thing that I just figured out recently is that it was not an Arab Idea to have an oil boycott in 1973, thought they might have thought that it was an Arab idea. The idea was really Kissingers, or someone from the CIA that convinced Kissinger that it was a good idea. And by default that means that the Yom Kippur War was not an Egyptian Idea though I am sure that the Egyptians think that it was, because one can not have an oil embargo with out a war to justify it. Increasing the price of oil was part of the plan to increase US economic power after the collapse of the Britian FoodsCorporation.
Hahahahahaha, did I have you going there. Or, am I only pretending to be jocking for power.
Soredemos
@KT Chong
Why in the world would you waste time asking know-nothing bullshit generators to predict the geopolitical future? What a waste of sand and energy.