The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Explosive Growth, Vaccines And Covid Variants

Stumbled across this chart of projected Covid growth in the province of Alberta. This is a chart of what happens IF Alberta changes nothing in terms of its restrictions and vaccine count, ALL that changes is the B117 variant becomes dominant.

If that doesn’t concern you, we aren’t looking at the same chart.

The good news is that it appears that vaccines do reduce transmission and Pfizer, at least, work against B117. What that means is that in order to crush Covid we are either going to have to get almost everyone vaccinated or we are going to have to do a proper “Zero Covid” lockdown. There are other variants, as well, and the data against the South African variant is not as good, so it may be that vaccines may not do the job at all: they may deal with original Covid and B117 but mutations continue.

If that’s the case we will only get this under control with severe lockdowns and travel restrictions of the sort that most countries outside of Asia have been unwilling to do, plus wide-spread vaccination. mRNA vaccines have fast design times, and if we are willing to risk them without trials, and we are willing to force sharing of the design and production knowledge, we might use fast-turnaround vaccines to help against Covid.

The risk here is that Covid becomes endemic, a new normal, like the flu, never truly under control, but much more dangerous. This also may lead to a world where travel never recovers properly, especially between nations which have taken the disease seriously and dealt with it, and those which have not, like America, most of Europe and Canada.

To avoid this we need to stop dancing around. Break the vaccine patents and force sharing. Recompense the companies involved, a few tens of billions is all that is needed and is trivial to major governments. Go to CovidZero. And get vaccines into every arm.

One piece of good news is that the Russian vaccine, Sputnik V, a traditional vaccine, is 92% effective: only 3% less than then two mRNA vaccines. It doesn’t need very cold refridgeration and it doesn’t have the unknowns of a new tech. I would suggest, at least for the moment, to push it heavily for populations who are vaccine hesitant: it’s still a vaccine, but not an untried type.

The other point that should be made is that we need to defeat this in every country to be truly safe, and that means vaccines and support for poorer countries. Supply bottlenecks because a few companies and countries want to maintain IP laws are insane; they could leave us with a permanent disease problem which will hurt the economy for decades to come. This is yet another example of how we are unable to plan more than for a few weeks to a year or so in advance, no matter how important the issue.

For my readers, I reiterate that:

Be careful out there. Don’t be stupid, take what precautions you can, and be as safe as you can. I know for many of my readers, who work jobs that just aren’t safe, there are limits, but Covid isn’t over and I’d like for you to not get sick, get long Covid, or die.

This isn’t over yet.


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66 Comments

  1. Daniel Lynch

    Agree with Ian on all points, but …. the ruling elites have already been vaccinated, so they’re ready to reopen the economy and it’s just too bad about the rest of us (I’m not eligible for a vaccine until May at the earliest, and then it could turn out to be one of the weaker vaccines that doesn’t protect against the mutations).

    Russia and China are willing to share (or at least, license) their vaccines with the rest of the world, and China has a business interest to do so (to keep its customers alive), so eventually the world will get vaccinated, even without Western help.

    I assume the vaccines will have to be tweaked every year to address the latest strains, similar to flu vaccines, so covid will eventually be a manageable problem. We’ll never eradicate covid, and perhaps life expectancy will take a step backwards.

    In the meantime, the push to reopen schools and businesses, even by “liberal” politicians, shows us who they really are, in case there was any doubt.

  2. RobotPliers

    And on your point about kids getting sick too, if the British ONS data is accurate, 10 – 15% of kids between 2 and 18 years old still have covid symptoms at 5 weeks. ONS also did a survey for symptoms at 12 weeks and, although they didn’t break it down by age, you could roughly estimate it to be half, so 5 – 7% of kids have symptoms at 12 weeks.

  3. Plague Species

    Excellent post. Spot on. I agree wholeheartedly.

  4. Joan

    Why isn’t the Sputnik vaccine being pushed more heavily, if it’s a traditional vaccine and cheaper to transport? Argh.

  5. ProNewerDeal

    Joan, I wonder about this.

    In particular, no Inactivated Virus type of vaccine (type used in polio, influenza, etc), approved in some other nations, is even among the 6 even agreed to be purchased in the USA.

    Sputnik 5 is of the Adenovirus Viral Vector type, like Johnson & Johnson & Oxford/AstraZeneca.

    IMHO I sadly think there is a chance that US politrickians including “I Trust The Science” Ds like JoeTheBiden are prioritizing geopolitics (Russia) or racism (India) or both (China) precluding actually Trusting The Science & consider purchasing vaccines from certain Bad Nations.

    I am not a biological or medical professional, & am open-minded to listening to a benign rational if logical. But I have not read anyone making such a benign rational as to why no Inactivated Virus type vaccines nor any vaccine of any type from any non-majority White & also Western (read: US vassal) nation has been approved in the USA.

  6. StewartM

    Break the vaccine patents and force sharing.

    What may be interesting is that if a major player, like Russia or China, starts distributing free vaccine while we “protect shareholder value” at all costs (literally!).

    You want to see more erosion of the US’s standing in the world? That would do it.

  7. Abbie

    I agree on breaking the patents, and I was dismayed to hear how the Oxford vaccine could have been open source and was then licensed exclusively to Astra Zeneca.

    I recently came across a long piece from Derek Lowe on the myths of vaccine manufacturing, regarding what it would take to expand capacity. I don’t know if it’s accurate, but I found it thought provoking. As with this blog, the conversation in the comments section there is worth reading. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/02/myths-of-vaccine-manufacturing.

  8. js

    The ruling elites have been willing to open the economy all along, then again maybe they have been vaccinated all along, it seems it was known the vaccines would work last spring, but they had not been through clinical trials yet.

  9. nihil obstet

    This is the time to demand a return to the pre-Reagan law which kept all government-financed research in the public domain. We pay to develop it and then we pay the monopoly price that the corporation imposes.

    A side issue is that patentability kills innovation. Gung-ho IP cheerleaders note that the research prior to 1985 or so rarely resulted in products going to market. We IP critics note that the funding after 1985 simply redirects research away from the basics that may produce new, useful knowledge to predictable products.

  10. different clue

    The traditional vaccines appear to confer actual anti-infectivity among the vaccinated, meaning they actually do not get infected, so far as I understand.

    Whereas, the mRNA neo-vaccinoids leave the recipient just as infectable as before, and just as conTAGious as before. What the neo-vaccinoids do is to prevent the recipient from actually developing their own personal symptoms from the infection. But it leaves them just as infected as if they had gotten no vaccine at all, and I believe I have read hints that it may leave them just as contagious and corona-spreading.

    If so, that would exactly fit the agenda of the neo-vaccinoid-industrial complex. They and their governments could keep the disease going and going and going for decades to come, breeding up tens and then hundreds of new mutants, each mutant needing a multi-billion-dollar re-vaccination campaign against each new mutant. That would explain the refusal to accept American-made classical vaccines.

    And not recognizing or accepting workable classic vaccines from Russia would fit the antiRussianitic racist antiRussianite campaign against Russia ( ill-disguised as a campaign against “Putin”). In the teeth of that, how might a Putin OR a post-Putin RussiaGov really humiliate the DC FedRegime while really HELPing American citizens? By making the Sputnik vaccine available at every Russian consulate, tourist office, culture center, etc. within America, free to any American who wants to walk in and get one.

    ( Perhaps a genuine American political party will arise with a very narrow small-laundry-list platform. A few things like . . . exTERminate the coronavid virus, abolish Free Trade, CanadaCare for all Americans, and maybe one or two others).

  11. Eric F

    Thanks Ian!
    Yes, I also concur on all points.

    Re patent breaking, some of those wacky rationalists are making their own vaccines:

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/niQ3heWwF6SydhS7R/making-vaccine

    I am not endorsing this, but found it interesting.

  12. anon

    A “Zero Covid” lockdown is not going to happen in the USA and we may never fully return to normal in our lifetimes. I read Fauci say we can stop wearing masks when 70% of population is vaccinated by the fall. Really? I don’t think that will happen by the fall nor do I believe that 70% of Americans will be vaccinated by the start of the school year in September.

    First of all, we can’t even get a significant portion of Americans to comply with mask wearing and social distancing. I don’t have faith in my fellow Americans that we can get 70% or more who will comply with more strict lockdowns and getting the vaccine. Second, the vaccine rollout has been a disaster. Almost everyone I know who wants the vaccine, including people over 65, have had problems with getting the vaccine in the city where they live. There are massive waitlists and in some instances website crashes and no telephone responses from their local health agency.

    I feel incredibly fortunate to have managed to get the Pfizer vaccine even though I’m a Millennial. I am still prepared to wear a mask for the rest of 2021 and 2022. I am very reluctant to get on a plane anytime soon. The variant mutations are a huge concern of mine. Everyone seems ready to go back to normal by the end of 2021 with some people I know already planning international vacations for Christmas. My advice is to not let your guard entirely down even if you have gotten the vaccine. I feel more assured that I won’t die from COVID now that I’ve been immunized, but we know very little about how these vaccines respond to different variants nor do we know how long immunity lasts after vaccination.

  13. Vaccines are a stopgap at best against a readily mutating virus such as this one. They simply cannot be developed and adequately tested in time to keep up with this virus. Not only that — but they all appear to be “leaky vaccines”. Try googling that one and the implications — they’re not good!

    I suggest we do what many countries in the sane world (i.e. non corporatocracies) are doing and start handing out ivermectin as a prophylaxis as well as a treatment. Been taking it myself for a while now with no ill effects. A family member with long-covid (caught in January of 2020) found immediate relief from lingering symptoms after taking it.

    The only reason *not* to take it or make it widely known is that vaccines would not legally be able to get an emergency use authorization if it were in wide use, because such authorizations require that no effective alternative treatment be available. Does it really surprise anyone that a corporatocracy is willing to kill to protect profits? Monsanto and Bayer have been at it for years, as have the pharmaceuticals. Then again, most seem to find it much more comforting to squeeze their teddy bear and pretend that our overlords haven’t descended to such insane depths, because that would require that we react to it.

  14. different clue

    Someone once called Larry Flynt a “smut peddler”.

    And Larry Flynt said . . . ” That’s Mister Smut Peddler to you, pal.”

    Or so I have read.

  15. Hugh

    Vaccines just present the body with surface viral proteins the immune system can develop antibodies against. An older adenovirus type vaccine might provide more or better configured/folded proteins for this. The mRNA vaccines which serve as templates for the production of such proteins may be a little too targeted. It’s a numbers game. A virus uses a cell’s machinery to reproduce copies but it has much less ability to proof the product. So there will be mutations. If there is a negative mutation in a critical protein or RNA/DNA segment, that viral line will cease. If, on the other hand, there is a mutation, say in the coding for a surface protein, which confers an advantage, greater infectivity, slightly different make-up or configuration, so less susceptible to vaccine created antibodies, then that line will proliferate.

  16. NR

    The traditional vaccines appear to confer actual anti-infectivity among the vaccinated, meaning they actually do not get infected, so far as I understand.

    Whereas, the mRNA neo-vaccinoids leave the recipient just as infectable as before, and just as conTAGious as before. What the neo-vaccinoids do is to prevent the recipient from actually developing their own personal symptoms from the infection. But it leaves them just as infected as if they had gotten no vaccine at all, and I believe I have read hints that it may leave them just as contagious and corona-spreading.

    Can you give a source on this? I’d like to read more.

  17. Mark Pontin

    With all respect, there are a number of incorrect assumptions here from various posters and Ian. As follows —

    [1.] Ian wrote: “Break the vaccine patents and force sharing. Recompense the companies involved, a few tens of billions is all that is needed and is trivial to major governments.”

    No. With the mRNA vaccines, simply breaking the patents will probably NOT usefully (like, before Autumn/Fall 2021) accelerate mRNA vaccine _manufacture_, which is the bottleneck. The Derek Lowe article that Abbie links to is on the money. Read it, folks —

    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/02/myths-of-vaccine-manufacturing

    Lowe: “There are not “dozens of other pharma companies” who “stand ready” to produce these mRNA vaccines. To me, this betrays a lack of knowledge about what these vaccines are and how they’re produced.”

    Lowe lays out six steps in mRNA vaccine manufacture. While steps 1-3 involve techniques of bespoke DNA and RNA synthesis that by now have become somewhat familiar outside SynBio (i.e. to conventional vaccine manufacturers), step 4 involves highly-specialized microfluidics technology of complexity comparable to, say, having a fab to manufacture computer chips. In other words, you can break the patent on a computer chip, but that won’t help you one bit if you haven’t built the fabrication facility to manufacture those silicon wafers to the required specs. Similar deal here.

    [2] Ian wrote: “One piece of good news is that the Russian vaccine, Sputnik V, a traditional vaccine, is 92% effective … it doesn’t have the unknowns of a new tech.”

    Joan wrote: “Why isn’t the Sputnik vaccine being pushed more heavily, if it’s a traditional vaccine … Aargh!”

    No. Sputnik V, like the Oxford AstroZeneca vaccine, is an adenovirus vector vaccine, which are NOT traditional, classic vaccines, except _relatively_ when compared to mRNA vaccines.

    At least, not in the West. The only adenovirus vaccine previously used in the U.S. has been a rabies vaccine for dogs. Furthermore, such vaccines require recombinant (genetically-engineered) viruses — so, _not_ a classic vaccine. Here’s an article from early 2020, at the pandemic’s start, explaining why although adenovirus vector vaccines had been under development for thirty years, they hadn’t previously been pushed for human use —

    https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/vaccines/Adenoviral-vectors-new-COVID-19/98/i19

    Yes. The Russian Gameleya Institute has worked with this vaccine technology for years. But …

    (a) The Russians have consistently put state aid into developing this technology because for decades they’ve considered biodefense spending essential to Russian defense;
    (b) Part of the reason for that, just as they put up the first satellite and the first astronaut, the USSR ran a Manhattan Project-sized bioweapons program employing 100,000-some people for twenty years, and that program achieved certain things biotech-wise ten or twenty years before those things were done anywhere else (e.g. in the U.S.). That Russian expertise did not disappear.

    And as of Feb 2 (last week) THE LANCET had this —

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00234-8/fulltext

    So Sputnik V will be cleared for use in Europe and North America, though given the anti-Russian hysteria in the U.S. (thanks, Hillary and Dems, and U.S. military-industrial complex!) you might not see it distributed there. But you’ll probably be able to bop down to Mexico to get a jab.

    [3] Ian wrote: “The risk here is that Covid becomes endemic, a new normal, like the flu ….”

    No. That’s NOT the risk. I’m afraid that’s certain — it’s too late, it’s out there now, and it’s going to be endemic. Like the flu. Sorry.

    [4] Ian wrote: ‘…never truly under control, but much more dangerous.’

    No. Probably NOT any more dangerous than the flu eventually. The likelihood is that:
    (a) less lethal strains of the virus will survive better in the human population and become dominant over time;
    (b) new biotechnologies will be developed i.e. one of the VCs responsible for Moderna has a company in stealth mode now that’s designed a peptide for an aerosol spray prophylactic against COV19 and and which should be announcing its results in a couple of months. (Pretty fascinating stuff, because they designed the peptide using a quantum computer, which is a first!)

    [5] ProNewerDeal wrote: “no Inactivated Virus type of vaccine (type used in polio, influenza, etc), approved in some other nations, is even among the 6 even agreed to be purchased in the USA.”

    Because they haven’t been ready. Such vaccines used to take 6-10 years to develop and test. But they’re on the way. This is from THE LANCET on February 3rd —

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00020-7/fulltext
    “Inactivated COVID-19 vaccines to make a global impact”

  18. Ian Welsh

    The longer it will take to get up to speed on mRNA vaccines, the sooner we’d better start. If this virus is not going to be controlled, then we need more capacity as soon as possible.

    So far, this virus has not been acting as expected, it hasn’t been getting less lethal. We’ve got a ways to go before it becomes less of a big deal than the flu, possibly a long way.

    Adenovirus vaccines are traditional in the sense that we know the risks, which we do not with mRNA vaccines, which are untried, and could have unfortunate side effects.

  19. What exactly is the point of this graph? Apparently (correct me if I’m wrong), it’s comparing non-novel coranvirus cases, with R=.91, with a variant of covid19, with R = 1.36. For some strange reason, it adds the graphs, together.

    Now, if we suppose, instead, that both variants are variants of covid-19, but with vastly different R values, then there might be a point to adding the graphs together, because then we can say something like “See! The 2nd wave of covid is because of a mutation which started taking off 1/21/25. So, imagine if there’s a new variant with even higher R value, that even survivors of previous variants aren’t immune to!” (Unsaid: so let us live in mortal terror of such a viral beast! And do whatever the authorities tell us to!)

    Since the graph of old variants peaked in early December of 2020, I doubt it’s a covid-19 variant. I’ve heard recent reports that covid was actually being passed around since last year (based on examinations of sewage, I believe), so maybe the black dots are, indeed, covid-19. But, in this case, why not say so?

    One possibility is that, due to lack of tests, the black dots are just model assumptions. The randomness of the dots argues against that, though maybe a probabilistic model was used.

    Let’s also do some simple math. Daily new cases of the old variant peak around 1900/day, in Alberta. The population of Alberta is about 4 million. From the shape of the graph, we can eyeball the total new cases in a 2 month period as roughly 1,000/day x 62 days, or 62,000.

    62,000/4 million is 1.55% of the population. That seems too low to be sick from just a regular cold (i.e., non-covid-19 coronavirus). A graph at statistica.com shows a December cold incidence for Americans to average about 9%. So, this suggests that it IS some variant of covid-19.

    Well, what’s the story?

    Finally, the notion that covid-19, which apparently was designed to be more infectious (“gain of function” – thanks, Dr. Fauci!) is somehow less infectious than common colds seems counter-intuitive. If the black dot variant somehow got a later start than common cold virii, that might make sense. But it’s peaking early December, in line with how I interpret the statistica bar charts. (“Percentage of U.S. Americans sick with a cold or a flu from December 2009 to January 2016”)

    So, another logical possibility is that the black dots are from a garbage model.

  20. Joan

    @Mark Pontin, thank you for those clarifications, that was very informative.

  21. Plague Species

    Scarborough was excoriating Biden this morning for not getting tough with the teachers and teachers’ unions and mandating teachers get back in the classroom. Scarborough asserted that healthcare officials, who he also referred to as the scientists, have affirmed that it is safe for children and teachers to go back to the classroom so long as social distancing is followed.

    I’m guessing “healthcare officials” equals the CDC? The CDC is a joke. A bad joke. Last February when we, meaning my immediate family, started wearing masks because of an interchange I had with someone in China who advised me/us to, the CDC, Fauci in particular, was telling us that masks are ineffective and there was no reason to wear one. The CDC already had credibility issues at that point, but that sealed the deal for me. The CDC is a political institution, what institution isn’t political these days if ever, and therefore cannot be counted on to adhere to principled ethics before all else.

    Scarborough is a conservative scumbag. A rich bastard who has the ear of D.C. insiders, unfortunately. He has a soapbox and he has tremendous influence.

    The fact of the matter is, schools cannot and will not manage this virus safely. There is no way you’re going to get thousands of kids crammed into inadequately ventilated buildings to follow proper and effective virus containment protocols. Scarborough knows this and he pushes and clamors for teachers and students to get back into the classrooms any way because he’s a big fan of the Chamber of Commerce and modern day slavery. What an evil bastard.

  22. Bob Hertz

    I have to challenge the statement in the story on a Canadian family that childhood infections are “not uncommon.”

    I note a report by the CDC that as of September 2020, children’s Covid infections totalled 19 per 100,000 for a six month period.

    I would call that extremely uncommon. Closing schools for such a rare event is not wise.

  23. Plague Species

    Childhood symptomatic infections are uncommon and there are different levels of children. High school students are very different than 3-6 year olds when it comes to the virus. Conflating K-12 and treating it as one group labeled children is misleading.

    CNN and MSNBC have pretty much stopped revealing the pandemic statistics. It is no longer a permanent feature in the upper right hand corner. This was a strategic decision. I think we should be privy to the discussions related to making this strategic decision. It would further reveal just how fascist, versus democratic, America truly is.

  24. Just skimmed “The shaky science behind the “deadly new strains” of Sars-Cov-2” @ blacklistednews.com.

    Some quotes:

    “Neil Ferguson was a co-author of the first and third papers. The UK government has relied on Ferguson’s mathematical modeling for many years. This is despite his work turning out to be highly inaccurate time after time”

    “The main evidence that the top three theoretical-models cite as proof of stronger bonding between the N501Y form of the novel coronavirus and the RBD is from just three scientific manuscripts, and these describe experiments with the virus in mice or petri dishes, not observation of whether in fact the variants are truly more contagious or more deadly.”

    There were reports of multiple strains early on in the pandemic. IIRC, a strain found in the US was older than any of them, which, it was argued, showed that the virus likely originated in the US. The fact that we’ve started hearing about new variants, without reference to the fact that multiple variants is nothing new, has made me suspicious from the get go about these ‘revelations’.

    (I’m conflating “variant” and “strain”, perhaps incorrectly.)

  25. Jeremy

    It’s sad that so much of this could be easily avoided with Ivermectin, high doses of Vit D, inhaled Budesonide and various others.

    Ivermectin:
    https://swprs.org/why-ivermectin-works-and-where-to-buy-it/
    https://c19ivermectin.com/

    Vit D:
    https://vitamindforall.org/letter.html
    https://c19vitamind.com/

    Budesonide:
    https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-09-common-asthma-treatment-reduces-need-hospitalisation-covid-19-patients-study

    The transmission of the virus, the developing of severe symptoms, overloading healthcare systems and most importantly exposing millions of unsuspecting subjects to Antibody Dependent Enhancement could all have been avoided. Just wait until the next ‘flu’ season – you shall be amazed at the death toll. Pathogenic Priming is real and is why previously, despite many years of trials SARS-type vaccines have all been abandoned.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3209347/pdf/zjv12201.pdf

    It’s truly shocking to see the extent to which these still experimental vaccines have been rushed through and granted Emergency Use Authorisation and are so widely accepted without question. All while those sane voices advocating for simple, safe and effective treatments have been silenced.

    And please don’t let yourselves be bullshitted by the variants:
    https://williambowles.info/2021/02/10/is-it-true-that-the-new-variants-are-very-dangerous/

    “Love your Servitude” – Aldous Huxley:
    https://youtu.be/caCkMX6YdYU

  26. Alberta pop 4 million
    Canada pop 38 million

    Alberta % population ~ 10%

    According to worldometer, Canada has had 800K cases, 21K deaths from covid

    Alberta share: 80K cases, 2.1K deaths

    closest # match to Alberta black dot total is thus Alberta covid deaths, not cases; however, according to https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/, the first covid death in Alberta occurred on March 19.

    So, I’ll say it again. I don’t understand what exactly the black dots are plots of. Since Neil Ferguson ( he of the creative, but highly inaccurate modeling craft ) is involved in 2 of the 3 papers on the B117 variant, I suspect the worse.

    Don’t they have Amazon in the UK? I’ll bet they’re hiring drivers and pickers, right now! Feguson could retire from the model making business, and still be a productive member of society.

  27. BlizzardOfOzzz

    God bless you metamars for attempting to sift through lies, filtered through multiple layers of additional lying, to find any nuggets of truth.

    It’s very sad to see what what remained of our society being destroyed by people’s hysterical reaction to a mild respiratory virus, hyped up by the thoroughly corrupt managerial state and its media.

    One thing is fascinating though. Didn’t left wingers use to complain about religion, specifically that a corrupt priestly class used fear of a purportedly non-existent threat of hell to control and dominate the population? Substitute virus for hell, and managerial state for the priests, and they seem to have described their own future behavior.

    You could make another similar analogy regarding the state arrogating dictatorial powers to itself using a non-existent fear of foreign enemies. Somehow that becomes okay if the fake threat is of a virus rather than of attack by an adversary government.

    Maybe this is uncharitable of me, but somehow I think that part of it is, guys like Ian agree with managerial dictatorship in principal (as long as it’s the Team Blue in charge and not Team Red). So they don’t much care whether the pretext is real or fake.

    What is being done especially in targeting children (why?) is child abuse on a mass scale. Children need to see faces and interact with adults and each other to develop. People aged 75 and up are still going to die, even if you somehow manage to prevent them from catching one particular virus (you won’t). The millions children you are abusing will suffer the effects for the rest of their lives.

  28. S Brennan

    “[T]here’s a reason why there’s no Taiwanese, or New Zealand, or Vietnamese variant of CoVID-19…we just let it rampage…thanks to Trump” – StewartM
    __________________________

    Apparently, Stewart has expertise on the “new strains” that eludes virologist worldwide…fair enough, those with Trump Derangement Syndrome [TDS] often seem to have a consummate knowledge in all matters great and small.

    That said, what does seem to elude Stewart and many of his [TDS] suffering cohorts is a rudimentary knowledge of the spread of infectious disease. In particular, the role of modern air transport where, an ill fated man can board a plane in Timbuktu bound for Terrebonne in the early morning, have a three hour layover at the various lounges at Charles de Gaulle, feel mildly ill boarding a plane headed across the Atlantic to Trudeau airport awaiting yet another layover before the man’s final flight to Terrebonne where he will succumb in a hospital after infecting thousands of fellow travelers…now headed for the ends of the earth.

    Now, multiply this story by the millions [shown below]…and then add in private jets…where one wealthy Connecticut jet set get together in March 2020 proved the line: “They were careless people…they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made”

    Below is an Air transport, passengers carried – Country Ranking for 2018, the only outlier in the disease spread is China and that is because they stopped internal air travel in December 2019 while…continuing international air travel. This chart, more than any other, explains the SARS II infection rate. I apologize in advance to all the TDS sufferers…I know reality isn’t your thing.

    https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/IS.AIR.PSGR/rankings

    01 United States 889,022,000.00
    02 China 611,439,800.00
    03 Ireland 167,598,600.00
    04 United Kingdom 165,388,600.00
    05 India 164,035,600.00
    06 Japan 126,387,500.00
    07 Turkey 115,595,500.00
    08 Indonesia 115,154,100.00
    09 Germany 109,796,200.00
    10 Brazil 102,110,000.00
    11 Russia 99,327,310.00
    12 UAE 95,533,070.00
    13 Canada 89,380,000.00
    14 Korea 88,157,580.00
    15 Spain 80,672,100.00
    16 Thailand 76,053,040.00
    17 Australia 75,667,650.00
    18 France 70,188,030.00
    19 Mexico 64,569,640.00
    20 Malaysia 60,481,770.00
    21 Hong Kong 47,101,820.00
    22 Vietnam 47,049,670.00
    23 Netherlands 43,996,040.00
    24 Philippines 43,080,120.00
    25 Singapore 40,401,520.00
    26 Saudi Arabia 39,141,660.00
    27 Colombia 33,704,040.00
    28 Hungary 31,226,850.00
    29 Qatar 29,178,920.00
    30 Switzerland 28,857,990.00
    31 Italy 27,630,440.00
    32 Iran 25,604,870.00
    33 South Africa 23,921,750.00
    34 Chile 19,517,180.00
    35 Argentina 18,081,940.00
    36 Peru 17,758,530.00
    37 Portugal 17,367,960.00
    38 New Zealand 17,249,050.00

  29. Hugh

    Standard fascist reaction: If they don’t like something, it’s a hoax. Covid has killed 474,000 Americans, but since that challenges BOO’s world view, it’s a hoax, just a mild respiratory infection.

  30. NR

    A virus that has killed over 10 times as many people as the flu does in a year on average and is still going is a “mild respiratory virus.” Right-wingers are truly the stupidest people on Earth.

  31. Hugh

    StewartM is correct. Air travel, failure to wear masks, prolonged exposure help transmit covid. But the creation of new strains of virus is a pure numbers game. The more copies of virus, the greater chance that some of those copies will have mutations that lead to new strains. The reason why New Zealand and Taiwan are far less likely to produce new strains is because they have done a good job of vastly reducing the number of covid cases they have, and small number of viral copies means smaller chances of mutations and new strains.

  32. different clue

    Advocates of the “mild respiratory virus” theory could show their sincerity by finding coronavid-infected people they know and getting themselves infected with coronavid. They could go through their mild respiratory symptoms and then be immune, thus revealing the truth of their theory for the rest of us onlookers.

    They would also be revealing the true sincerity of their stated beliefs.

  33. different clue

    Hey! It just occurred to me . . . . members of the MAGA In Opposition Party ( MIOP) could show their sincerity in their tens of millions by holding vast indoor Herd Immunity rallies, where they all meet and mingle and all give eachother coronavid. That way, they will get the mild respiratory infection, get over it, and come out the other side with Full Immunity. They could show their bravery and their reality-based knowledge of the real facts, in contrast to our cowardice and our delusional dwelling in the illusion that coronavid is a dangerous disease.

    I think that is a good idea for the MIOP community to pursue, and I sincerely hope they pursue it.

    I also think the MAGA community could found a Party and a Movement with that very name. They could call themselves the MIOP . . . for MAGA In Opposition Party. They could redesign the MAGA logo by putting some ” grey prison bars” in front of the word MAGA , to symbolise the oppression and persecution under which they labor.

    And if they would All all ALL wear their MIOP hats, we cowards could recognize them and keep our distance from them. Avoid the stores they shop in, slam our business windows shut if we see them coming, avoid the restaurants they frequent, etc. And that way , we could avoid the plague which they proudly carry and spread.

  34. ProNewerDeal

    Mark Pontin, I am not a bio/med professional, nor do I have much time to read news these days. Nevertheless, the minimal news time I have I spend with quality informative sites like ianwelsh & nakedcapitalism. I don’t recall which site, but 1 such quality site described the different virus types.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine#Inactivated_virus_vaccines confirms there are 3 Inactivated Virus vaccines approved & currently administered in multiple countries, 2 from Chinese vendors, 1 from India vendors.

    https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19 shows that for example the Chinese Sinovac Coronavac, an Inactivated Virus Vaccine, has been purchased in over 10M doses in multiple nations from multiple continents including Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, Malaysia, Phillipines, Turkey. Not all of these nations are Chineese vassals. In particular, IIRC Philippines has geopolitical beef with China, & prefer to be Murica’s vassal than China. Nevertheless, it appears that even crazy fascist Philippino Pres. Duterte has the sense not to let geopolitics override his public health experts’ advice. Meanwhile we can not say the same for the US Billionaire class or their puppets like ConManD0n or JoeTheBiden

    Again, I open to a benign explanation on why USA is not purchasing any Inactived Virus Vaccine, or any vaccine from a geopolitical “adversary” like Russia, or any from a majority non-White nation like India, or both in the case of China. I just have not read one yet & doubt I will.

  35. ProNewerDeal

    Jeremy, thanks for the info.

    Are you skeptical on the mRNA vaccines approved by at least 1 G20/BRICS/”Major” nation?

    Adenovirus viral vector like Janssen/J&J or Sputnik V?
    Protein Subunit like Novavax?
    Inactivated Virus like Sinovac Coronavac?

    Is your skeptism more that ALL of these vaccines passed the EUA bar but not the higher “standard process” bar for approval, or skepticism of the experimental mRNA vaccines used in the USA to date?

  36. ProNewerDeal

    ^typo, meant to write “Are you skeptical on the NON-mRNA vaccines approved by at least 1 G20/BRICS/”Major” nation?”

  37. S Brennan

    “StewartM is correct. Air travel, failure to wear masks, prolonged exposure help transmit covid” – Hugh

    All well and good Hugh,

    Except…Stewart didn’t mention air travel, failure to wear masks or prolonged exposure in his post.

    Now Hugh we’ve been round and round about your continual and excessive use of lies, deceit, false testimony, sock puppets, projection, your straw man argumentation…falsely putting words into people’s mouths et al…why don’t stop being a child and put this phase of your adolescence behind you?

    Back to my original point on air-travel and countries respective infection rates, I have been pointing to air travel since the beginning [private and commercial] that’s because back in the early 90’s I worked on an air sterilization device for aircraft [never adopted] and have known since then [as have epidemiologists] that any air borne contagion with a long enough incubation period would be spread through out the world in this manner.

    It’s what I learned way back when, 4-7 days is the optimal latency period for the transmission of an air borne contagion through air travel. Which is what we have, right out of the box, a respiratory disease with an almost perfectly adapted life cycle for the world in which we live today…which begs the question on mutations…almost all mutations are fatally imperfect and almost any mutation of this disease that is sustainable will yield an inferior contagion.

    BTW Hugh, I live in a very red region, not anywhere as pure as the urban enclaves that featured turnouts above 90% and voted 95% in favor of Biden but still, pretty red and outside of the tiniest minority<.1%, nobody is not wearing a mask when entering a public building. As the map below makes clear, SARS II aka Covid-19 continues to be an urban, near urban and exuban disease suffered mainly by those who live in the bluest sections of the country.

    That makes sense as major air travel centers are located in Urban/Blue areas. Mask usage/compliance does not explain the statistical disparity, unless you are claiming that Biden voters have been lackadaisical on following SARS II guidelines. And I wouldn't know…because disparagement of 49.7% the country is an urban/blue thing…there are no glossy magazines or high powered TeeVee stations telling us how lazy, worthless, people in urban areas are goose stepping to Putin's puppeteering. Yep, the only evidence we have is what we see with our own eyes when urbanites come to buy properties to be turned into low tax absentee bolt-hole/"investments".

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/–qPyqakXB4Y/XntvuTjfQJI/AAAAAAAAF-o/nqhnqv_RL8YIkViSW2kxYP_n2r7kHfVKACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2020-03-25%2Bat%2B10.33.07%2BAM.jpg

  38. shots in arms

    nothing strange is going on

  39. different clue

    @S Brennan,

    There is something very strange about that map. It has a lot of counties colored gray. And the color chart says that gray = metro counties. Yet a lot of those counties are extremely lo-metro or zero-metro. Did something go wrong with the mapping?

    Also, the map says nothing about which “metro” counties have “what” covid.

  40. S Brennan

    Fair enough DC,

    I think I was a little careless in using that map to show that 90% of the SARS II cases are co-located near an international/mega-regional airport. Good on you..for taking the time that others eschew following links..we may disagree on many things but, you put in the effort. I hope, that although I may be a harsh critic of blatantly false arguments I make the time to recognize my errors when they come to light…peace out.

  41. StewartM

    S Brennan:

    That said, what does seem to elude Stewart and many of his [TDS] suffering cohorts is a rudimentary knowledge of the spread of infectious disease. In particular, the role of modern air transport..

    Uh, who’s been traveling by air anywhere SB? Most countries I know of is locked down, particularly against us.

    https://www.cntraveler.com/story/coronavirus-air-travel-these-numbers-show-the-massive-impact-of-the-pandemic

    Passenger travel is down 95 %.

    And please explain how say, both the 1919 flu virus and the bubonic plague (the latter hit Europe not once, but twice) despite having a fraction of the people moving back then as now and no air travel at all.

    As I said, we now have our own variant which ***we’re*** now giving to the rest of the world. Maybe the Trumpists and the Trump-apologists can now call CoVID the AMERICAN virus??

    https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-02-11/coronavirus-variant-first-seen-in-los-angeles-has-spread-around-the-world

  42. Mark Pontin

    ProNewerDeal: ‘I’m open to a benign explanation on why USA is not purchasing any Inactived Virus Vaccine, or any vaccine from a geopolitical “adversary” like Russia, or any from a majority non-White nation like India, or both in the case of China.’

    ‘Benign’ or ‘malign,’ the explanations for why specific COV19 vaccines got locked in by specific countries have everything to do with:
    (a) where and when money was committed and contracts were locked down earlier in the game, around June-July 2020 in the cases of the U.S. and U.K.;
    (b) what vaccine technologies looked most promising to specific national governments, health regulators, etc., which led to specific *bets* on specific vaccines.

    So, yes: *Of course,* national and international politics — above all, the already-existing relationships between research companies, medical authorities, and capital — played a big role in all of it. How could they not?

    Part of the EU’s vaccine problem now, for instance, is that Macron in France went to bat for Sanofi, a French-headquartered Big Pharma, insisting that a percentage of the vaccines the EU purchased came from them. It was a bad bet: Sanofi’s COV19 candidates, a recombinant protein adjuvanted vaccine and another mRNA candidate, have straggled behind the leading U.S. and UK candidates, as well as the Russian one and the Chinese ones.

    Yes, there are Chinese inactivated virus vaccines and one Indian one. They haven’t been cleared in the West. I can’t opine on what the politicians and regulators have been thinking, but what literature I’ve glanced at on one of the Chinese vaccines suggests that it’s substantially less effective than both the mRNA and adenovirus vaccines.

    This is not a surprise: inactivated virus vaccines’ historical drawback has been that they tend to be weak, requiring a whole bunch of antigen to be fed to the human recipient’s immune system (so sometimes several booster shots); attenuated virus vaccines have as their main drawback, meanwhile, that statistically there can be a certain amount of reversion to virulence (!). That’s one reason the Russians bet on the adenovirus vector strategy.

    Why did Fauci and the NIH in the U.S. bet on mRNA vaccines, a novel biotechnology? It was in large measure because —

    [1] Believe it or not, vaccines don’t make enough money for Big Pharma to be very interested in developing them these days. See forex —

    ‘How often do vaccine trials hit paydirt?’
    https://news.mit.edu/2020/how-often-vaccine-trials-succeed-0527

    [2] And the fact is, the mRNA vaccines did not come out of Big Pharma — though Pfizer bought its way into one — but out of the world of synthetic biology, which is a different, later paradigm.

    The VC company responsible for Moderna are mostly MIT-trained bioengineers/venture capitalists with about 70 companies doing things as varied as microbiome-enhanced and CRISPR-edited seeds (agbio), sperm editing (human reproductive tech), alongside more conventional therapeutics. Moderna specifically had been working on mRNA vaccines in a close relationship with the NIH for almost ten years because there’s much more you might do with mRNA vaccines than merely fight COV19. You could create personalized cancer vaccines, beat HIV, sickle-cell, and a lot else. See forex —

    ‘The next act for messenger RNA could be bigger than covid vaccines’
    https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/02/05/1017366/messenger-rna-vaccines-covid-hiv/

    Alongside that potential, Fauci and the NIH were also working with Moderna simply because the old vaccine development model wasn’t working as Big Pharma hadn’t been interested in developing new vaccines.

    Then COV19 came along. Fauci and the NIH had this relationship with Moderna and some knowledge of the mRNA technology. So they made a bet on that.

    And so, interestingly, Big Pharma money played a role in the story. But not in the way you might have assumed, but precisely because Big Pharma had recently been unwilling to invest much money in vaccine development.

  43. S Brennan

    Okay Stewart,

    Since you seem to be a very slow learner, pay attention.

    1] “The 1919 flu virus” as you refer to it started two years earlier, WW I was the primary mechanism for it’s spread…you obviously haven’t heard of troop movements during world wars or you wouldn’t have asked the question…that’s all well and good but, trust me on this..I was part of two large troop deployments…it happens during war, more so in world wars.

    2] “Bubonic plague” which was, many different pathogens, over numerous centuries was never a virus, it was bacterial, much more deadly than SARS II but, it had entirely different co-humanoid vector…please learn some basic biology and history before correcting others who actually learned something in school [while starting in varsity sports as a freshman]. Yes, small school but, readers beside yourself will get the point…being a loser on both the academic and scholastic field means…you’re a certifiable loser.

    3] “Passenger travel is down 95 %” Yeah sure, after the horse has left the barn [except China, as I pointed out..they knew what was coming and shut down internal traffic in Dec 2019…as I pointed out [and you hope people are too clueless to read up-thread]. Don’t give me your bullshit because of lock down, people, after the fact, know air travel is foolish.

  44. Jeremy

    And for those that think that Israel is the exemplar with its mas vaccination program ….

    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/covid-vaccine-the-nightmare-scenario/

    It seems that this rush to vaccinate with an experimental gene therapy may have some unforeseen consequences.

  45. Jeremy

    I should add that I have successfully purchased Ivermectin tabs., Azithromycin tabs. and Budecort (Budesonide) inhalers from the pharmacy linked to in the article below.

    https://swprs.org/why-ivermectin-works-and-where-to-buy-it/

    No prescription was needed. My order was received about four weeks after being placed (I’m in the UK) and I paid using my Revolut card – although a simple bank wire would work.

    The prices charged are Indian retail – you’d be shocked at how inexpensive they are. Email a request and they’ll send you a price including shipping.

    It would seem that future mutations of the SARS-Cov-2 virus (‘gain of function’ features will ensure there are many) will ‘escape’ these vaccines and so, unless you’re willing to have multiple vaccinations on an annual basis, it might be prudent to have some effective therapies on hand.

    Just saying !

  46. Joan

    @ProNewerDeal, thanks for your reply, and sorry I missed it earlier.

  47. Since the graph of old variants peaked in early December of 2020, I doubt it’s a covid-19 variant.

    Sorry, but my “doubt” is wrong. Upon further googling, came across this graph of Alberta cases: https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html

    Alberta’s “first wave” was just a blip, much smaller than it’s peak in Dec. 2020. https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html

    Furthermore, Alberta’s R value is indeed close to .9. Details are at https://globalnews.ca/news/7632865/coronavirus-alberta-rural-alberta-cases-r-value/

    In Western countries, anyway, the experience of having a worse 2nd wave than 1st wave is common, as per Ivor Cummins. I didn’t realize the difference would be this dramatic.

    One wonders what the the Albertan public thinks about their public health measures. Also, one wonders what the Albertan medical bureaucracy thinks about their performance….

  48. @BlizzardOfOzzz

    Thanks for you kind words. However, as per a comment I just posted that went into moderation, the graph is indeed an “apples to apples” comparison, in that they are comparing historically observed covid data, together with projections of a covid variant with much higher R value. Not that I trust their R value for the variant. Seems likely to suffer from ‘Ferguson inflation’, if you catch my drift. 🙂

    In my comment in moderation, you can see via a reference that the R value in Alberta changes with time. Well, it’s been known for many months that early treatment with hydroxychloroquine decreases hospital stays and, at least by inference, the amount of viral shedding. So, while I haven’t seen this claimed anywhere, I have to believe that interventions with prophylactics/early treatments, with hydroxychloroquine or ivermectin, will crater R values.

    ==============

    I just went to see if Kim Iverson’s youtube channel was still alive. She had posted a video about India’s embrace of hydroxychloroquine not just for covid contractors (or positive testers), but their entire families, that lived with them. In some states, they moved on to ivermectin, determining it to work better.

    Her channel is still up. Listened to the first 2 minutes of a recent video, “Democrats Admit Trump Didn’t Say Anything To Incite Insurrection”, and here is what she said:

    00:05
    hello everybody welcome to the show
    00:06
    thank you so much for being here
    00:07
    appreciate it uh let’s go ahead and
    00:10
    start off today with some soft news
    00:12
    because um if we go into the
    00:15
    well for one because those of you
    00:17
    joining in on youtube welcome
    00:18
    you know i am risking it live streaming
    00:20
    again on youtube when
    00:22
    i think that that was part of the the
    00:23
    censorship slaughterhouse that happened
    00:25
    but um i think now i know why a lot of
    00:28
    those channels were demonetized from the
    00:30
    censorship
    00:31
    why they were censored or demonetized
    00:33
    was because of certain topics they were
    00:34
    talking about
    00:35
    so what i’m going to do is at the end of
    00:38
    the show
    00:38
    i am going to tell you all on youtube
    00:41
    that are watching to move over
    00:43
    to either rockfin or vimeo which the
    00:45
    links are down below
    00:47
    in order for you to get the rest of the
    00:49
    show the good stuff
    00:50
    happens when we go underground so that

    so, MAYBE she has restated, or just reposted, her now youtube-censored video on the Indian experience, on rockfin or vimeo.

    One thing I believe US citizens can do is appeal to members of the Indian-American community to take a lead role in educating the American public as to the Indian experience. It’s been my impression that, at least at the “tail end of the distribution”, their highly professional members are eager for the American experiment to succeed, and for us to not degrade to the level of corruption which has been observed in the Indian democracy. One of the most impressive testimonies about the election fraud of 2020, that I heard, was from an Indian American lady. Also, Dinesh D’Souza seems eager for us to not “go gentle into that good night”, which, in fact, will be an Orwellian nightmare.

    I have so far distributed my flyer from governmentincompetence.org to a number of churches. In the future, I will try some Hindu temples.

  49. BlizzardOfOzzz

    Seems likely to suffer from ‘Ferguson inflation’, if you catch my drift.

    Well, if they keep counting every cancer/heart disease/gunshot death where the deceased had the sniffles at some point as a “Covid death” for the next few years (seems to be the plan), then maybe Ferguson’s 2-million-dead will come true. Then the Experts can claim vindication — while also continuing to claim that lockdowns/muzzling worked. It’s the magic of Science, in which we trust.

  50. BlizzardOfOzzz

    ey! It just occurred to me . . . . members of the MAGA In Opposition Party ( MIOP) could show their sincerity in their tens of millions by holding vast indoor Herd Immunity rallies, where they all meet and mingle and all give eachother coronavid. That way, they will get the mild respiratory infection, get over it, and come out the other side with Full Immunity. They could show their bravery and their reality-based knowledge of the real facts, in contrast to our cowardice and our delusional dwelling in the illusion that coronavid is a dangerous disease.

    dc, well, the difference between you and us is that we don’t see the need to structure our entire lives around a flu-like respiratory virus, which is so mild that most people who contract it never even notice. But despite your senseless sarcasm, yes, as hard as it is for you to believe as you bunker down in your house in fear wearing two muzzles and refusing to greet your neighbors, with your children locked up in isolation for years until they contemplate suicide — we do not care. You’re welcome to join us at any time, if you decide that breathing fresh air and normal human interaction are in fact better for your health than your neurotic, performative anti-social rituals.

  51. headline from Feb 2021:

    India’s R value steady at 0.92 but Delhi’s infection rate rises for second consecutive week

    So, looks like I’m definitely wrong about “cratering” R values, though as per Kim Iverson, India is largely not locked down

  52. Lex

    Oh it is here to stay no matter what we do now. Evolution doesn’t generally work in terribly mysterious ways. We allowed far to much time and space for the virus to mutate, and in the US <3% of positive cases are sequenced so we really have no clue when it comes to presence or spread of mutations/variants. The US is no longer capable of doing anything but supporting billionaires and dropping bombs. Our only real hope with Covid is that it quickly follows the preferred path of viruses to greater contagiousness and lesser damage. These vaccines would have been far more effective if we had even tried to limit the spread and contain the virus through other methods. Instead we pinned our hopes on silver bullet vaccines and let evolution do its thing in the meantime.

  53. bruce wilder

    I look at charts like the one in the OP, that combine history with a projection, and I am reminded that this is how we all live — lost in projections and counterfactuals.

    I am not convinced that we know what drives this virus’ spread. Certainly, we have not done a convincing job of bringing the spread under control in most places. I cannot see much evidence that any public health measure had much impact in my city. Now, you can say, well, they did not do xyz, and you may feel right, but you are off in counterfactual land.

    This disease does affect some people severely. Why? Some people are extremely contagious apparently. Why? I am disturbed that the only inquiries are by goofy people on YouTube.

    The public health authorities in the U.S. have been remarkably incompetent. Fauci, 80 years old, a liar and a fool, is treated like an oracle of the gods by the Media. They chose early on to let it rip, taking only measures to protect the health system from being overwhelmed, letting it become endemic. So here we are.

    Maybe the variants will prove somehow more contagious (how exactly is always unspecified, like mechanisms are unknown but known enough to write alarming stories) and we will experience another wave. I have heard no explanation whatsoever for the sudden decline in my State and city. So, I am supposed to be alarmed by the prospect of a projected but unexplained exponential increase in a few weeks. It will be interesting to me if it happens, but will there be any explanation forthcoming? Appatently we are not interested in anything more complex or subtle than blaming Trump for being an asshole.

  54. Ché Pasa

    Is everyone catching on yet? That our governments, plural, have made a conscious decision to let the virus run loose, mutate, do whatever it does, and let people catch the disease, and let some fair portion of them die.

    That’s the policy we see being implemented in the US and much of the West, as well as in parts of the rest of the world (particularly Latin America and Africa), and it doesn’t much matter which political party is running things. The policy doesn’t much change. The US government is at least saying that more vaccine will become available eventually, and that’s nice, but in actuality getting the vaccine is a crapshoot. And will likely stay that way, just as getting the disease will continue to be.

    It’s no wonder there’s revolt in the air and on the ground. The virus isn’t the sole cause, but it’s a considerable factor, and it’s not going away. We’re stuck with it.

    Life expectancy will plummet. Oh well. The cull of the old, sick, poor, black and brown will continue apace. Nothing can stop it now, right?

  55. S Brennan

    In exact agreement with Bruce W on Fauci…as I said yesterday:

    “Nobody here seems to recall that Fauci was central to the disastrous response to AIDS. In fact, Fauci was still promising an AIDS vaccine as recently as 2019 and…it failed, alongside all his other “highly touted” efforts. Fauci has a forty year record of failing upward…[he] has the blood of over a half million in the AIDS/HIV epidemic and…it was the same story, putting the magic bullet of a vaccine over anti-virals and early treatment. I wish [folks] would do their due diligence on Fauci [who], had protesters at his door forty years ago”

    And again, I refer everybody to this News Week article* that clearly shows that Fauci is the central character in the development of diseases EXACTLY like SARS II, aka Covid-19, if not the actual disease itself.

    We know the Wuhan Lab was developing man-made diseases like SARS II, we know from US State Dept cables that the Lab had several pathogens escape over the years. So…looking at the odds of some pathogen whose natural progenitor is thousands of miles away being found, in a altered state, next to the lab is well…millions to one. So when “experts” at WHO, [which operates with significant Chinese funding], say that it’s impossible for the virus to be produced by the Wuhan Lab they are being preposterous. Particularly since they now admit SARS II/Covid-19 could’ve been lab produced…we just don’t have the proof that this exact pathogen escaped from the Wuhan Lab. And China has done it’s best to make sure we never know “what” happened in Wuhan.

    Anyway, if you haven’t read the article and you have bought into the WHO line, [recently modified] you’re willfully allowing smoke to be blown up your backside.

    ___________________

    *
    Dr. Fauci Backed Controversial Wuhan Lab with U.S. Dollars for Risky Coronavirus Research
    By Fred Guterl On 4/28/20 at 2:57 PM EDT

    https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741

  56. Hugh

    Ché Pasa, globalization that central tenet of neoliberal theology meant that the doors were left open and public health responses were delayed and ignored. It was also a moment for the US to exercise some of the global leadership it so often claims, except we had saddled ourselves with the non-leadership of Trump.

    OT the Trump impeachment defense team is running spiels that would have made 1930s’ Germans proud. They ran 10 minutes of clips of Democrats using the word “fight”. They even defended Trump’s infamous defense of white nationalists in Charlottesville. They are trying to equate any criticism of Trump with Trump’s violent insurrection.

  57. NR

    Peer reviewed.
    Terrifying.

    Lost me at “Because the FBI’s anthrax investigation was closed against the advice of the lead FBI agent in the case, there are likely conspirators still working in the US government.”

    Protip: If you want people in the scientific community to take you seriously, don’t put conspiracy theories in your (allegedly) scientific paper.

  58. NR

    Also I got a good laugh out of the point where the author says “Many have raised the warning that the current epidemic of COVID-19 is actually the result of an (sic) bioweapons attack released in part by individuals in the United States government” and then cites himself to back that statement up. I guess you have to admire the chutzpah, if nothing else.

  59. Willy

    According to this:

    https://us-covid19-per-capita.net/
    https://us-covid19-per-capita.net/recent_deaths.html
    …the Dakotas currently have the highest covid incidence rate, and Kansas currently has the highest covid death rate.

    According to this:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
    …the USA has a case rate greater than India, Russia, and Brazil combined, with less than 1/5 the population.

    As for that famous Swedish social experiment, despite having only 2/3 the population of its Scandinavian neighbors (Norway, Finland, Denmark), Sweden has twice the incidence of covid.

    I’d advise drawing your own conclusions, since mine only repeat what should be obvious. I do tend to agree that the susceptibility to covid mortality is still far too uncertain, (beyond the well-known obesity, cancer, heart disease and diabetes) in those cases where all other contributing factors are equal.

  60. S Brennan

    I think the standard for accurate data is Mortality Analyses by Johns Hopkins:

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

    Now granted Willey it does not confirm your bias but what the hell, reality and you parted ways long ago; sadly, you are always here to remind us.

    If you wanted an accurate picture Willey and I’m sure you don’t, you’d look at a county by county map not a state state state map which, conveniently, for your bias, ignores cities.

    For example; Kansas City is in Missouri but the metro area encompasses Kansas hence one third the cases in Kansas are in Johnson County a suburban area of Kansas city and account for roughly 60% of the deaths, the other 28% are in Wichita itself, another urban area with tight links to Dallas. And yes, I understand your flyover state ignorance is driven by your hatred of 49.7 of the population and your fanatical need to confirm your biases.

    And no, just because you went to a “red” website and started in by insulting everybody and then…got your ass handed to you doesn’t mean you are now justified in your hatred, it just means you are an rude asshole.

  61. Hugh

    States like the Dakotas and Kansas are mostly empty space. So it really says a lot that even there covid has spread so widely.

  62. Willy

    S Brennan,

    You posted “Observed case-fatality ratio”, which I’d assume quantifies the quality of care. My argument said nothing whatsoever about quality of care.

    Your link only demonstrates that the USA still has higher quality of health care (costs ignored) for covid than does places like Peru, Columbia and the Ukraine. I’d think that such an argument would go without even saying.

    The “Deaths per 100,000 population” from your link is closer to my argument. In those stats the USA ranks #4, which I consider abysmal for “the worlds greatest nation” with the “worlds best health care”. And that chart only shows “the twenty countries currently most affected by COVID-19 worldwide” as they’ve clearly stated. BTW, that particular Hopkins stats category jibes with the source I presented.

    “just because you went to a “red” website and got your ass handed to you and started in by insulting everybody”

    This has nothing to do with my reality and I’d need you to offer a link for proof. Otherwise you’re just lying (no surprises there). But that comment does explain your odd preference for coal power, hydroxychloroquine, Trump and metamars. I’ve known for some time that dissembling is all that American conservatives have left.

  63. StewartM

    SB:

    1] “The 1919 flu virus” as you refer to it started two years earlier, WW I was the primary mechanism for it’s spread…you obviously haven’t heard of troop movements during world wars or you wouldn’t have asked the question…that’s all well and good but, trust me on this..I was part of two large troop deployments…it happens during war, more so in world wars.

    You do realize that the 1919 virus may have originated in *KANSAS* and may have been the American flu? So, while WWI certainly helped to spread it, but given the history of other contagions it wasn’t necessary to spread it and moreover if it indeed started in Kansas then we would have been first struck so nothing would have prevented *us* from getting it.

    2] “Bubonic plague” which was, many different pathogens, over numerous centuries was never a virus, it was bacterial, much more deadly than SARS II but, it had entirely different co-humanoid vector…please learn some basic biology and history before correcting others who actually learned something in school [while starting in varsity sports as a freshman]. Yes, small school but, readers beside yourself will get the point…being a loser on both the academic and scholastic field means…you’re a certifiable loser.

    I’m talking about both the 541-542 AD outbreak, in Europe, under Justinian, and 800 years later in 1347-1351, which kept coming back for the next 400 years. Both have been traced to Yersinia pestis. But my point was and is that travel during those times was a tiny fraction of today or even 1919. We’re talking about a period of time when most people did not travel more than 25 miles away from their place of birth *for their entire lives*. Yet having virtually NO TRAVEL compared to us during those times did not stop it.

    And this is also true of most ancient pathogens.

    3] “Passenger travel is down 95 %” Yeah sure, after the horse has left the barn [except China, as I pointed out..they knew what was coming and shut down internal traffic in Dec 2019…as I pointed out [and you hope people are too clueless to read up-thread]. Don’t give me your bullshit because of lock down, people, after the fact, know air travel is foolish.

    BUT THAT”S VIRTUALLY ALWAYS THE CASE!

    Doctors have now identified samples from patients from France in November 2019 as having CoVID. So at least a month before anyone even knew the disease even existed, it was already out. It may have not even originated from China (though it’s a logical starting point), it could be that once it came to Wuhan that Asian communities, being so closely-packed, were an ideal petri dish for the virus.

    And I’m going to break it to you, but that looks to be true in the US here. My niece’s husband (c. 40 years old) got pneumonia after Jan 1st 2020 and had to be hospitalized. At that time there were no test kits, but later he did get an antibody test that indicated that yes, he has had CoVID. So almost *two full months* before the first official outbreak of CoVID in the US, it was here. And he had not traveled anywhere but locally!

    But Ian is correct in the virus response. Locking down air transport between countries when you allow travel between the states, particularly big motorcycle rallies in South Dakota, and don’t do proper shutdowns and don’t enforce masks and social-distancing is almost pointless. We might as well allow visitors when we’re doing virtually nothing to stop it here; it’s more a risk to *them* than it is to *us*.

    One other thing, that map you posted:

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/–qPyqakXB4Y/XntvuTjfQJI/AAAAAAAAF-o/nqhnqv_RL8YIkViSW2kxYP_n2r7kHfVKACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2020-03-25%2Bat%2B10.33.07%2BAM.jpg

    appears to be one of Disraeli’s “damned lies”. Once again you resort to using a map which must be showing absolute values over per-capita rates (because, my county, which has had some of the highest rates in the nation, apparently has NO coronavirus cases or deaths in your map).

    Here is a map of CoVID cases by-states:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/01/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

    You can click on the tabs to get the per-capita rates. You see that the Dakotas are among the worst in both the number of cases and deaths per-capita, and indeed are worse at both than California, for instance.

    Now, let’s compare the list of international airports:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_hub_airports

    And a map of the busiest airports (most of these are international hubs):

    https://einfon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/US-Airports-Map.jpg

    And you see–nothing near the Dakotas, which have among the highest case and death rates in the nation. Funny, that how that happens.

    Yet they do have big maskless motorcycle rallies there!

    In short, like in our gun homicide arguments, where you made the fallacious fascist-like argument about the ‘peaceful rural folk’ in rural contrasted against those ‘savage animals” (maybe, you meant non-whitess?) in the inner cities, despite being shown that many areas of rural America have gun homicide rates which exceed those of many major cities—you’re making the same fallacy here. Rural America can and does have rates of CoVID cases and deaths as high or higher than many cities; and it’s by far community transmission. I see it here in Appalachia every day.

  64. different clue

    @BlizzardOfOzzz

    Thank you for your reply to my comment. I’ll do it my way, and you’ll do it your way, and let Darwin take the hindmost.

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